CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDesert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
ETSU
Efficiency #110
2025-26: 23-11 · 15-6 conf
@
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
72.2
win 34%
Projected
77.1
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: ASU −4.9 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona St 69.5, ETSU 67.4 → 68.6 possessions
+0.7
Arizona St offense vs ETSU defense
+0.6
ETSU offense vs Arizona St defense
−0.3
Projected total
149.3
Axis starts at 148 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Arizona St offense vs ETSU defense
+0.6
ETSU offense vs Arizona St defense
+0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Arizona St by 4.9
4.9
ETSU side ◂▸ Arizona St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.2 against a projected 149.3, and the margin steps add to +4.8 against +4.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and ETSU the slower (66.5, #268). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.3
model
Projected team totals
72.2 / 77.1
ETSU / Arizona St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#257
ETSU
69.5#79
Arizona St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageETSU
Where ETSU scores: shooting
ETSU shoots an effective 55.3% (#33); Arizona St allows 52.4% (#235). Expect about 54.1%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseETSU
ETSU's ball-hawking
ETSU ranks #11 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Arizona St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageArizona St
Where Arizona St struggles: ball control
Arizona St turns it over on 17.1% of possessions (#213); ETSU forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#74). Expect about 18.1%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashETSU
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
ETSU (#30 in shot-blocking exposure) against Arizona St (#30 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.9%. Historically Arizona St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ETSU has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
55.3% #33
52.4% #235
+4.1 pt/100
15.2% #78
18.5% #77
-0.2 pt/100
28.3% #252
34.9% #337
+0.5 pt/100
35.0% #180
34.3% #160
-0.1 pt/100
74.7% #93
—
+0.2 pt/100
ETSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.5 pts/100
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseETSU allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
51.0% #161
-0.3 pt/100
17.1% #213
18.5% #74
-1.6 pt/100
29.8% #206
27.9% #64
-1.0 pt/100
39.5% #66
36.4% #225
+0.4 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersETSUoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
ETSU shoots
42.8
4.8
15.4
36.9
Arizona St allows
37.3
7.7
15.6
39.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#52 | 59.3%#204 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 48.1%#21 | 43.1%#253 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.1%#77 | 39.2%#209 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#132 | 35.0%#249 | 33.7% |
Arizona Stoffense vsETSUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
35.6
7.8
18.0
38.6
ETSU allows
36.1
3.7
12.5
47.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.9%#119 | 59.6%#210 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 44.8%#293 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.4%#177 | 33.8%#48 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#202 | 32.9%#110 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersETSU
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365
Off reb %
28.3%
#252
Def reb %
72.1%
#64
Turnover %
15.2%
#78
Forced TO %
18.5%
#74
FT rate
35.0%
#180
FT allowed
36.4%
#225
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
ETSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#86 of 365) to Arizona St’s +0.8 (#149).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
ETSU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Brian Taylor II | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 34.9% | 4.5 | 76.4% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Blake Barkley | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.6 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 62.2% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 84.0% | 26.2% | |
| 15 | Cam Morris III | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 59.1% | 32.3% | 0.9 | 66.9% | 28.4% | |
| 4 | Jaylen Smith | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-3 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.4% | 4.4 | 80.0% | 25.3% | |
| 2 | Maki Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 34-1 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 4.0 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | Allen Strothers | G | Sr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 21.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 51.8% | 32.1% | 0.8 | 70.3% | 13.9% | |
| 35 | Jordan McCullum | F | So | 6'8" | 34-32 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 55.5% | 20.5% | 1.3 | 69.8% | 22.8% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Sutherland | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.7% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 55.6% | 19.2% | |
| 55 | Milton Matthews III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 57.9% | 38.7% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 21 | Gabe Sisk | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 51.2% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 90.0% | 20.3% | |
| 14 | Brayden Crump | F | So | 6'8" | 11-1 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 70.0% | 22.1% | |
| 30 | Henry Sisemore | F | Fr | 6'8" | 7-0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 25 | Joseph Carter | G | Fr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.9% | |
| 23 | Frederico Whitaker Jr. | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Maddox Huff | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Maurice Odum | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 51.3% | 37.7% | 7.2 | 82.9% | 29.7% | |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | Fr | 7'1" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 58.2% | 30.8% | 0.8 | 71.5% | 24.8% | |
| 2 | Anthony Johnson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 24.8 | 13.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 49.7% | 32.9% | 2.4 | 76.1% | 31.7% | |
| 15 | Noah Meeusen | G | So | 6'5" | 30-11 | 27.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 49.0% | 31.0% | 3.3 | 82.9% | 14.2% | |
| 1 | Santiago Trouet | F | So | 6'11" | 31-30 | 25.7 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 46.1% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 78.3% | 19.5% | |
| 14 | Andrija Grbovic | F | Jr | 6'11" | 33-27 | 19.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 51.9% | 35.0% | 3.7 | 78.9% | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Bryce Ford | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-20 | 22.4 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 47.3% | 31.4% | 3.8 | 82.9% | 18.6% | |
| 23 | Allen Mukeba | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-6 | 16.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 53.2% | 19.9% | |
| 8 | Marcus Adams Jr. | F | Jr | 6'8" | 14-0 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 43.9% | 29.6% | 1.9 | 70.0% | 19.7% | |
| 12 | Trevor Best | G | So | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 0.7 | 63.6% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | Kash Polk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 3 | Adante' Holiman | G | Sr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dame Salane | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 70 | Jovan Icitovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Quentin McCoy | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Vijay Wallace | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
ETSU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Brian Taylor II | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-34 | 33.2 | 14.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 53.2% | 34.9% | 4.5 | 76.4% | 26.3% | |
| 13 | Blake Barkley | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.6 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 62.2% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 84.0% | 26.2% | |
| 15 | Cam Morris III | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 59.1% | 32.3% | 0.9 | 66.9% | 28.4% | |
| 4 | Jaylen Smith | G | Jr | 5'11" | 34-3 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 49.4% | 34.4% | 4.4 | 80.0% | 25.3% | |
| 2 | Maki Johnson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 34-1 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 57.9% | 38.5% | 4.0 | 64.3% | 13.9% | |
| 5 | Allen Strothers | G | Sr | 6'1" | 34-34 | 21.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 51.8% | 32.1% | 0.8 | 70.3% | 13.9% | |
| 35 | Jordan McCullum | F | So | 6'8" | 34-32 | 21.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 55.5% | 20.5% | 1.3 | 69.8% | 22.8% | |
| 24 | Isaiah Sutherland | F | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 52.7% | 33.9% | 2.3 | 55.6% | 19.2% | |
| 55 | Milton Matthews III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 57.9% | 38.7% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 21.1% | |
| 21 | Gabe Sisk | G | Jr | 6'5" | 18-0 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 51.2% | 10.0% | 0.6 | 90.0% | 20.3% | |
| 14 | Brayden Crump | F | So | 6'8" | 11-1 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 31.3% | 1.5 | 70.0% | 22.1% | |
| 30 | Henry Sisemore | F | Fr | 6'8" | 7-0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 25 | Joseph Carter | G | Fr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 23.9% | |
| 23 | Frederico Whitaker Jr. | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Maddox Huff | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26ETSU
Against the spread
Season
14-18
Home
8-7
Road
6-8
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.5
Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14-1
Home
7-7-1
Road
9-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.6
Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Furman | N | L 61–76 | −1.0 | L−16.0 | 138.0 | U137 | 98.6 | 122.9 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | W Carolina | N | W 69–67 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 146.0 | U136 | 105.5 | 102.4 | 65.4 |
| Mar 7 | The Citadel | N | W 83–76 | −15.0 | L−8.0 | 139.0 | O159 | 127.7 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Feb 28 | Mercer | A | L 76–82 | +1.5 | L−4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 119.0 | 128.4 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Wofford | H | L 69–72 | −7.0 | L−10.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 103.8 | 108.3 | 66.5 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Greensboro | A | W 87–75 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 149.0 | O162 | 130.1 | 112.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 18 | Furman | A | W 78–69 | +1.5 | W+10.5 | 141.0 | O147 | 114.4 | 101.2 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | Samford | H | L 72–82 OT | −6.0 | L−16.0 | 145.5 | O154 | 95.7 | 109.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 11 | Chattanooga | H | W 73–61 | −10.0 | W+2.0 | 145.0 | U134 | 110.3 | 92.2 | 66.2 |
| Feb 7 | VMI | A | W 87–70 | −14.5 | W+2.5 | 144.0 | O157 | 123.2 | 99.1 | 70.6 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
20-12-1
Home
10-4-1
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-17-1
Home
4-11
Road
7-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | #13Texas Tech | H | W 72–67 | +7.5 | W+12.5 | 155.5 | U139 | 108.9 | 101.3 | 66.1 |
| Feb 10 | Oklahoma St | H | W 85–76 | −2.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U161 | 113.8 | 101.7 | 74.7 |
| Feb 7 | Colorado | A | L 70–78 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 158.0 | U148 | 106.7 | 118.9 | 65.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeETSUArizona St
Efficiency
110.1
110.9
107.0
106.4
67.4
69.5
—
—
Shooting
55.3%
51.1%
57.2%
51.7%
34.7%
33.4%
74.7%
75.3%
35.0%
39.5%
Ball control & glass
15.2%
17.1%
18.5%
18.5%
28.3%
29.8%
27.9%
34.9%
8.6%
10.5%
7.5%
9.6%
Style
37.8%
38.4%
46.9%
41.8%
12.2%
16.3%
50.8%
53.0%
34.9%
32.3%
Roster
3.08
2.82
6'4.7"
6'7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputETSU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.