CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHynes Athletics Center, New Rochelle, NY
Vermont
Efficiency #199
2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf
@
Iona
Efficiency #227
2025-26: 18-14 · 10-11 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM ET
71.3
win 40%
Projected
74.1
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: IONA −2.8 · total 145.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iona 69.4, Vermont 66.5 → 67.7 possessions
−1.4
Iona offense vs Vermont defense
−1.2
Vermont offense vs Iona defense
−0.2
Projected total
145.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iona offense vs Vermont defense
−1.2
Vermont offense vs Iona defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Iona by 2.8
2.8
Vermont side ◂▸ Iona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +2.9 against +2.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iona is the faster team (68.4, #177 of 365) and Vermont the slower (64.4, #346). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.4
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 74.1
Vermont / Iona
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.5#317
Vermont
69.4#87
Iona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageIona
Where Iona struggles: the offensive glass
Iona rebounds 27.8% of its own misses (#274); Vermont lets opponents grab 23.0% of their own misses (#2). Expect about 25.0%, 5.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Iona averages 68.4 possessions per 40, Vermont 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Iona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Vermont at about 44.4% of its shots from three, Iona about 45.7%.
AdvantageVermont
Where Vermont scores: ball control
Vermont turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#35); Iona forces turnovers on 16.6% of opponent possessions (#178). Expect about 15.3%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassVermont
Vermont gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.9% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Vermont's offense.
ClashVermont
Style clash: ball movement
Vermont creates off the dribble (assists on 47.9% of its baskets); Iona allows assists on 56.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Vermont has the ball
OffenseIona allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #95
48.9% #64
-0.2 pt/100
14.3% #35
16.6% #178
+1.8 pt/100
26.2% #318
31.2% #212
-1.6 pt/100
31.1% #279
28.8% #40
-0.7 pt/100
71.9% #213
—
-0.0 pt/100
Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100
Iona has the ball
OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg
51.9% #149
50.4% #121
-0.1 pt/100
17.2% #221
14.8% #305
+1.3 pt/100
27.8% #274
23.0% #2
-3.3 pt/100
29.3% #326
36.4% #226
-0.2 pt/100
70.7% #250
—
-0.2 pt/100
Iona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Vermontoffense vsIonadefense
Share of shots by zone
Vermont shoots
Iona allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.5%#6157.4%#12658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)48.0%#2339.5%#17439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10435.9%#10738.0%
Three33.3%#20830.6%#2533.7%
Ionaoffense vsVermontdefense
Share of shots by zone
Iona shoots
Vermont allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.7%#28157.1%#11858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.2%#24141.9%#23039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11735.1%#8038.0%
Three35.1%#10535.3%#26733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Vermont
+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#318
Def reb %
77.0%
#2
Turnover %
14.3%
#35
Forced TO %
14.8%
#305
FT rate
31.1%
#279
FT allowed
36.4%
#226
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Iona
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#242 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#274
Def reb %
68.8%
#212
Turnover %
17.2%
#221
Forced TO %
16.6%
#178
FT rate
29.3%
#326
FT allowed
28.8%
#40
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.7

Vermont has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#174 of 365) to Iona’s −1.2 (#242).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Vermont2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3TJ HurleyGSr6'5"34-3430.915.03.51.40.958.1%38.5%6.087.3%25.8%
20TJ LongGSr6'4"29-1729.612.14.81.11.148.2%31.4%6.579.7%26.7%
19Gus YaldenFSo6'9"31-3025.516.15.82.11.756.1%34.7%3.867.3%37.9%
34Noah BarnettFSo6'9"31-2522.35.83.60.50.466.8%50.0%0.164.1%13.3%
24Ben JohnsonGSr6'3"34-1718.25.42.11.10.359.7%42.2%3.272.2%16.2%
21Lucas MariGFr6'6"30-820.04.94.01.71.246.5%26.3%2.570.0%18.8%
2Ben MichaelsFSo6'8"31-1113.12.02.20.40.538.3%9.1%0.762.5%13.2%
1Momo NkugwaGFr6'3"29-013.13.02.30.70.454.9%25.0%1.147.4%15.0%
4Jackson SkipperFSr6'7"29-18.51.81.10.30.543.9%27.3%1.176.9%17.6%
0David SimonFSo6'11"18-010.63.42.20.30.670.7%57.1%0.436.4%18.6%
32Trey WoodyardFSr6'6"4-08.01.50.30.30.042.9%40.0%1.3—13.6%
12Ben WessonGFr6'4"7-02.31.90.30.10.185.7%66.7%0.450.0%32.4%
25Sincere ClemonsGFr6'2"6-02.20.20.20.00.20.0%0.0%0.350.0%26.3%
15Drew BessetteFFr6'8"5-02.40.41.40.20.025.0%0.0%0.6—19.0%
13Chris KuzemkaGSr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
VermontIona
Efficiency
108.2
105.8
109.4
108.5
66.5
69.4
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
51.9%
55.7%
51.2%
33.3%
35.1%
71.9%
70.7%
31.1%
29.3%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
17.2%
14.8%
16.6%
26.2%
27.8%
23.0%
31.2%
8.3%
10.7%
8.3%
11.1%
Style
44.6%
45.9%
41.8%
40.3%
5.5%
11.8%
47.9%
53.7%
34.4%
31.4%
Roster
2.78
3.25
6'6.1"
6'6"
85.8%
27.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Vermont
Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%
Lost
  • Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Iona
Returning minutes: 27.4%Returning production: 24.8%
Lost
  • CJ Anthony 30.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Lamin Sabally 29.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Denver Anglin 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg · transferred to Merrimack
  • Toby Harris 26.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Keshawn Williams 11.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Khalil Badru 9.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kevon Vanderhorst from Drexel · 29.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
  • Martin Kheil from Idaho St · 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
  • Aiden Disu from Holy Cross · 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Sadiku Ibine Ayo from St John's · 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
  • Keyshawn Mitchell from VCU · 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season
  • Ore Odutayo no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 202025-26Iona 83 – 78 Vermont

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.