CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UTBad Boy Mowers Series
Ohio State
Efficiency #31
2025-26: 21-13 · 13-9 conf
vs
BYU
Efficiency #26
2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
78.3
win 47%
Projected
79.1
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: BYU −0.8 · total 157.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, Ohio State 67.5 → 69.0 possessions
+1.5
BYU offense vs Ohio State defense
+4.2
Ohio State offense vs BYU defense
+3.4
Projected total
157.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
BYU offense vs Ohio State defense
+4.2
Ohio State offense vs BYU defense
−3.4
BYU by 0.8
0.8
Ohio State side ◂▸ BYU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.3 against a projected 157.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, BYU is the faster team (70.4, #80 of 365) and Ohio State the slower (66.4, #278). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.4
model
Projected team totals
78.3 / 79.1
Ohio State / BYU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.5#253
Ohio State
69.9#57
BYU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageOhio State
Where Ohio State scores: shooting
Ohio State shoots an effective 56.2% (#19); BYU allows 51.2% (#174). Expect about 54.1%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBYU
Where BYU scores: ball control
BYU turns it over on 15.2% of possessions (#80); Ohio State forces turnovers on 15.6% of opponent possessions (#242). Expect about 15.2%, 1.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassBYU
BYU owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.0% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for BYU's offense.
Ohio State has the ball
OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg
56.2% #19
51.2% #174
+4.1 pt/100
15.3% #91
16.4% #196
+1.3 pt/100
30.4% #185
29.6% #145
-0.2 pt/100
37.2% #122
28.9% #42
-0.3 pt/100
77.7% #21
—
+0.5 pt/100
Ohio State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100
BYU has the ball
OffenseOhio State allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #54
50.2% #114
+1.8 pt/100
15.2% #80
15.6% #242
+2.0 pt/100
34.3% #61
30.0% #160
+1.6 pt/100
34.4% #198
34.7% #170
-0.1 pt/100
74.7% #94
—
+0.2 pt/100
BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOhio Stateoffense vsBYUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio State shoots
31.3
9.5
18.8
40.4
BYU allows
30.4
12.2
18.0
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.1%#14 | 61.2%#274 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.3%#12 | 35.4%#70 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#4 | 41.0%#276 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.7%#72 | 35.3%#269 | 33.7% |
BYUoffense vsOhio Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
BYU shoots
32.8
12.1
16.0
39.1
Ohio State allows
31.5
8.2
20.1
40.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#17 | 59.8%#220 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.5%#164 | 38.4%#143 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.0%#26 | 42.7%#328 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.5%#145 | 31.9%#57 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOhio State
+1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#132 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#185
Def reb %
70.0%
#160
Turnover %
15.3%
#91
Forced TO %
15.6%
#242
FT rate
37.2%
#122
FT allowed
34.7%
#170
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1
BYU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365
Off reb %
34.3%
#61
Def reb %
70.4%
#145
Turnover %
15.2%
#80
Forced TO %
16.4%
#196
FT rate
34.4%
#198
FT allowed
28.9%
#42
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.6
BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to Ohio State’s +1.2 (#132).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Ohio State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Devin Royal | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 52.5% | 31.6% | 3.1 | 80.2% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | John Mobley Jr. | G | So | 6'1" | 31-31 | 31.6 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 56.7% | 41.1% | 7.6 | 86.8% | 28.2% | |
| 1 | Amare Bynum | F | Fr | 6'8" | 34-24 | 28.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 56.1% | 30.8% | 2.7 | 72.6% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Gabe Cupps | G | So | 6'2" | 33-0 | 12.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 45.6% | 25.9% | 0.8 | 73.7% | 11.2% | |
| 3 | Taison Chatman | G | So | 6'4" | 28-3 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 59.8% | 47.1% | 1.8 | 85.0% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Ivan Njegovan | C | So | 7'1" | 30-2 | 11.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 58.8% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 65.5% | 14.7% | |
| 14 | Brandon Noel | F | Sr | 6'8" | 16-10 | 18.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 65.1% | 20.0% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 18.3% | |
| 6 | Puff Johnson | G | Sr | 6'8" | 9-1 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 41.7% | 42.9% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 15.3% | |
| 9 | Mathieu Grujicic | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.2 | 42.9% | 20.7% | |
| 55 | Braylen Nash | G | So | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 17 | Josh Ojianwuna | F | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Myles Herro | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
BYU2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Wright III | G | So | 6'1" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 52.6% | 41.0% | 4.0 | 82.1% | 29.6% | |
| 7 | Khadim Mboup | F | Fr | 6'9" | 34-2 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 50.7% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 23.1% | 11.6% | |
| 5 | Mihailo Boskovic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 28.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 16.1% | |
| 6 | Aleksej Kostic | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 52.4% | 36.7% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 22.5% | |
| 2 | Tyler Mrus | F | Jr | 6'7" | 26-0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.8% | 29.8% | 1.8 | 90.9% | 12.7% | |
| 34 | Abdullah Ahmed | C | So | 6'10" | 20-1 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 41.7% | 8.3% | |
| 24 | Dominique Diomande | F | Fr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 48.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 | 62.5% | 15.8% | |
| 25 | Dawson Baker | G | Sr | 6'4" | 6-2 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 59.7% | 47.4% | 3.2 | 88.9% | 19.2% | |
| 33 | Xavion Staton | C | Fr | 6'11" | 9-0 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 7.4% | |
| 51 | Jared McGregor | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 42.4% | |
| 4 | Brody Kozlowski | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| — | KJ Perry | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Nate Pickens | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Ohio State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Devin Royal | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 52.5% | 31.6% | 3.1 | 80.2% | 25.1% | |
| 0 | John Mobley Jr. | G | So | 6'1" | 31-31 | 31.6 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 56.7% | 41.1% | 7.6 | 86.8% | 28.2% | |
| 1 | Amare Bynum | F | Fr | 6'8" | 34-24 | 28.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 56.1% | 30.8% | 2.7 | 72.6% | 20.2% | |
| 4 | Gabe Cupps | G | So | 6'2" | 33-0 | 12.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 45.6% | 25.9% | 0.8 | 73.7% | 11.2% | |
| 3 | Taison Chatman | G | So | 6'4" | 28-3 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 59.8% | 47.1% | 1.8 | 85.0% | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Ivan Njegovan | C | So | 7'1" | 30-2 | 11.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 58.8% | 66.7% | 0.1 | 65.5% | 14.7% | |
| 14 | Brandon Noel | F | Sr | 6'8" | 16-10 | 18.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 65.1% | 20.0% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 18.3% | |
| 6 | Puff Johnson | G | Sr | 6'8" | 9-1 | 11.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 41.7% | 42.9% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 15.3% | |
| 9 | Mathieu Grujicic | G | Fr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.2 | 42.9% | 20.7% | |
| 55 | Braylen Nash | G | So | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 17 | Josh Ojianwuna | F | Sr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Myles Herro | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Ohio State
Against the spread
Season
17-16-1
Home
7-9-1
Road
6-5
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +6.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-18
Home
10-7
Road
4-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −4.5
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #9TCU | N | L 64–66 | −2.0 | L−4.0 | 146.0 | U130 | 102.5 | 105.7 | 62.4 |
| Mar 13 | #3Michigan | N | L 67–71 | +12.5 | W+8.5 | 155.0 | U138 | 100.0 | 106.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | Iowa | N | W 72–69 | +1.5 | W+4.5 | 140.5 | O141 | 124.1 | 118.9 | 58.0 |
| Mar 7 | Indiana | H | W 91–78 | −4.0 | W+9.0 | 148.0 | O169 | 134.0 | 114.8 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Penn State | A | W 94–62 | −7.0 | W+25.0 | 152.0 | O156 | 145.1 | 95.7 | 64.8 |
| Mar 1 | #8Purdue | H | W 82–74 | +6.5 | W+14.5 | 149.5 | O156 | 133.4 | 120.4 | 61.5 |
| Feb 25 | Iowa | A | L 57–74 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 140.5 | U131 | 97.4 | 126.4 | 58.5 |
| Feb 22 | #15Michigan St | A | L 60–66 | +10.0 | W+4.0 | 147.0 | U126 | 98.4 | 108.2 | 61.0 |
| Feb 17 | #24Wisconsin | H | W 86–69 | −1.0 | W+16.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 125.0 | 100.3 | 68.8 |
| Feb 14 | #15Virginia | N | L 66–70 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 147.0 | U136 | 100.4 | 106.5 | 65.7 |
BYU
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
8-9
Road
3-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
9-8
Road
6-3
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11Texas | N | L 71–79 | −2.5 | L−10.5 | 158.0 | U150 | 106.0 | 118.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | #5Houston | N | L 66–73 | +9.5 | W+2.5 | 148.0 | U139 | 95.3 | 105.4 | 69.3 |
| Mar 11 | West Virginia | N | W 68–48 | −3.5 | W+16.5 | 141.0 | U116 | 108.5 | 76.6 | 62.6 |
| Mar 10 | Kansas St | N | W 105–91 | −11.0 | W+3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 135.0 | 117.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #10Texas Tech | H | W 82–76 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U158 | 134.6 | 124.8 | 60.9 |
| Mar 3 | Cincinnati | A | L 68–90 | +1.5 | L−20.5 | 152.5 | O158 | 94.8 | 125.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | West Virginia | A | L 71–79 | −2.0 | L−10.0 | 141.0 | O150 | 112.3 | 124.9 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | UCF | H | L 84–97 | −13.5 | L−26.5 | 161.5 | O181 | 108.3 | 125.0 | 77.6 |
| Feb 21 | #6Iowa State | H | W 79–69 | +3.0 | W+13.0 | 155.0 | U148 | 118.3 | 103.4 | 66.8 |
| Feb 18 | #4Arizona | A | L 68–75 | +11.0 | W+4.0 | 163.5 | U143 | 102.8 | 113.4 | 66.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOhio StateBYU
Efficiency
117.4
118.2
104.9
104.5
67.5
69.9
—
—
Shooting
56.2%
54.4%
58.0%
56.2%
35.7%
34.5%
77.7%
74.7%
37.2%
34.4%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
15.2%
15.6%
16.4%
30.4%
34.3%
30.0%
29.6%
8.1%
8.9%
8.9%
8.1%
Style
40.1%
39.8%
43.4%
45.4%
8.5%
15.6%
52.6%
45.0%
23.7%
26.2%
Roster
2.19
2.08
6'5.5"
6'5.3"
66.1%
47.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOhio State
Returning minutes: 66.1%Returning production: 58.1%
Lost
- Bruce Thornton 36.6 mpg, 19.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christoph Tilly 24.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Colin White 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
Added
- Myles Herro no D1 minutes last season
- Josh Ojianwuna no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
BYU
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%
Lost
- AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
- Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.