CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAllen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

Fordham

Efficiency #170

2025-26: 17-15 · 8-11 conf

Kansas

Efficiency #25

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-7 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

61.7

win 13%

Projected

74.6

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: KU −12.9 · total 136.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas 68.5, Fordham 66.2 → 66.4 possessions

−4.2

Kansas offense vs Fordham defense

+0.7

Fordham offense vs Kansas defense

−8.4

Projected total

136.3

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kansas offense vs Fordham defense

+0.7

Fordham offense vs Kansas defense

+8.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Kansas by 12.9

12.9

Fordham side ◂▸ Kansas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas is the faster team (68.3, #181 of 365) and Fordham the slower (64.5, #341). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.3

model

Projected team totals

61.7 / 74.6

Fordham / Kansas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#334

Fordham

68.5#170

Kansas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFordham

Where Fordham struggles: shooting

Fordham shoots an effective 48.6% (#300); Kansas allows 45.0% (#2). Expect about 46.5%, 4.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.7 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseKansas

Kansas's shot-blocking

Kansas ranks #6 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.3% of Fordham's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Kansas averages 68.3 possessions per 40, Fordham 64.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversFordham

Fordham protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Fordham's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Fordham, Kansas's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Fordham at about 40.0% of its shots from three, Kansas about 37.9%.

AdvantageKansas

Where Kansas struggles: the offensive glass

Kansas rebounds 29.2% of its own misses (#227); Fordham lets opponents grab 26.8% of their own misses (#29). Expect about 27.9%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions.

Fordham has the ball

OffenseKansas allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #300

45.0% #2

-6.7 pt/100

17.2% #218

13.8% #339

+2.0 pt/100

34.1% #64

29.9% #152

+1.4 pt/100

26.4% #354

27.4% #26

-1.1 pt/100

70.2% #265

—

-0.2 pt/100

Fordham net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Kansas has the ball

OffenseFordham allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #186

49.9% #95

-1.0 pt/100

15.6% #109

17.2% #136

+0.5 pt/100

29.2% #227

26.8% #29

-1.6 pt/100

32.2% #255

30.3% #66

-0.5 pt/100

76.7% #37

—

+0.4 pt/100

Kansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Fordhamoffense vsKansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

Fordham shoots

37.2

8.9

15.4

38.5

Kansas allows

32.7

10.4

15.6

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#225	51.3%#10	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.0%#221	37.6%#127	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.3%#33	31.9%#16	38.0%
Three	28.9%#356	30.6%#24	33.7%

Kansasoffense vsFordhamdefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas shoots

35.9

9.4

20.3

34.4

Fordham allows

32.3

7.6

17.8

42.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#51	57.7%#137	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.3%#283	38.1%#137	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.2%#259	39.0%#203	38.0%
Three	34.6%#139	33.4%#149	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Fordham

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#117 of 365

Off reb %

34.1%

#64

Def reb %

73.2%

#29

Turnover %

17.2%

#218

Forced TO %

17.2%

#136

FT rate

26.4%

#354

FT allowed

30.3%

#66

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn−2.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Kansas

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#180 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#227

Def reb %

70.1%

#152

Turnover %

15.6%

#109

Forced TO %

13.8%

#339

FT rate

32.2%

#255

FT allowed

27.4%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Fordham has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#117 of 365) to Kansas’s 0.0 (#180).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Fordham2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Fordham's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Dejour Reaves	G	Sr	6'0"	31-30	33.9	17.9	4.3	3.6	2.4	51.0%	28.7%	3.7	85.8%	33.6%
12	Rikus Schulte	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	30.0	10.7	9.1	1.4	1.9	57.5%	22.2%	0.8	62.0%	22.4%
13	Akira Jacobs	F	Jr	6'10"	32-30	28.5	7.2	4.8	0.9	0.6	52.0%	33.3%	4.1	75.8%	15.5%
30	Christian Henry	G	Sr	6'3"	30-23	28.2	10.7	3.4	5.1	2.6	41.8%	26.1%	3.8	56.3%	31.4%
77	Louis Lesmond	G	Sr	6'6"	28-10	19.3	3.3	2.2	1.0	0.8	35.1%	20.0%	2.7	42.9%	17.3%
0	Abass Bodija	F	Fr	6'10"	27-10	19.4	7.3	5.0	0.7	1.0	52.8%	33.3%	0.8	78.3%	23.0%
4	Marcus Greene	G	Sr	6'2"	31-10	15.9	4.7	0.9	0.7	0.3	53.0%	33.7%	3.1	62.5%	17.9%
14	Roor Akhuar	F	Fr	6'7"	25-3	19.6	6.1	3.5	0.5	0.6	56.1%	37.2%	3.8	45.5%	19.0%
3	Jack Whitbourn	C	So	6'11"	11-9	23.9	8.4	8.4	0.7	1.2	47.1%	20.0%	0.9	85.7%	24.6%
10	Kingston Price	G	So	6'2"	21-0	7.4	1.8	0.4	0.4	0.3	55.9%	31.6%	0.9	—	15.8%
8	Ryan Pettis	G	So	6'4"	6-0	11.5	2.2	1.8	1.8	0.3	32.4%	10.0%	1.7	50.0%	17.1%
1	Zarique Nutter	F	Sr	6'7"	3-2	16.3	12.7	5.7	1.0	1.3	44.8%	0.0%	1.0	75.0%	48.7%
25	Jace Howard	G	Sr	6'7"	2-0	10.0	4.5	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	100.0%	27.6%
23	Max Miller	G	So	6'0"	5-0	3.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	25.1%
21	Aidan Crotty	G	So	5'11"	5-0	2.4	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	—	27.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jamari McDowell	G	So	6'5"	35-7	17.3	3.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	51.0%	34.9%	2.5	62.5%	12.5%
13	Elmarko Jackson	G	So	6'3"	34-1	17.7	4.8	1.8	1.4	1.0	44.4%	37.2%	1.3	82.5%	18.4%
7	Kohl Rosario	G	Fr	6'6"	29-6	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.4	52.9%	28.6%	2.2	75.0%	17.9%
1	Jayden Dawson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-1	9.6	2.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	42.6%	27.9%	1.8	100.0%	14.8%
34	Paul Mbiya	C	Fr	7'0"	21-0	5.1	1.2	1.4	0.0	0.1	68.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	12.6%
6	Samis Calderon	F	Fr	6'8"	15-0	4.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	11.7%
0	Nginyu Ngala	G	Sr	5'10"	11-0	3.5	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	23.7%
12	Wilder Evers	G	Jr	6'4"	6-1	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	80.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	23.2%
25	Justin Cross	F	Sr	6'8"	5-1	2.6	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	—	0.0	—	16.8%
21	Will Thengvall	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.0%
2	Corbin Allen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Fordham2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Fordham's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Dejour Reaves	G	Sr	6'0"	31-30	33.9	17.9	4.3	3.6	2.4	51.0%	28.7%	3.7	85.8%	33.6%
12	Rikus Schulte	F	Jr	6'9"	32-32	30.0	10.7	9.1	1.4	1.9	57.5%	22.2%	0.8	62.0%	22.4%
13	Akira Jacobs	F	Jr	6'10"	32-30	28.5	7.2	4.8	0.9	0.6	52.0%	33.3%	4.1	75.8%	15.5%
30	Christian Henry	G	Sr	6'3"	30-23	28.2	10.7	3.4	5.1	2.6	41.8%	26.1%	3.8	56.3%	31.4%
77	Louis Lesmond	G	Sr	6'6"	28-10	19.3	3.3	2.2	1.0	0.8	35.1%	20.0%	2.7	42.9%	17.3%
0	Abass Bodija	F	Fr	6'10"	27-10	19.4	7.3	5.0	0.7	1.0	52.8%	33.3%	0.8	78.3%	23.0%
4	Marcus Greene	G	Sr	6'2"	31-10	15.9	4.7	0.9	0.7	0.3	53.0%	33.7%	3.1	62.5%	17.9%
14	Roor Akhuar	F	Fr	6'7"	25-3	19.6	6.1	3.5	0.5	0.6	56.1%	37.2%	3.8	45.5%	19.0%
3	Jack Whitbourn	C	So	6'11"	11-9	23.9	8.4	8.4	0.7	1.2	47.1%	20.0%	0.9	85.7%	24.6%
10	Kingston Price	G	So	6'2"	21-0	7.4	1.8	0.4	0.4	0.3	55.9%	31.6%	0.9	—	15.8%
8	Ryan Pettis	G	So	6'4"	6-0	11.5	2.2	1.8	1.8	0.3	32.4%	10.0%	1.7	50.0%	17.1%
1	Zarique Nutter	F	Sr	6'7"	3-2	16.3	12.7	5.7	1.0	1.3	44.8%	0.0%	1.0	75.0%	48.7%
25	Jace Howard	G	Sr	6'7"	2-0	10.0	4.5	3.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	100.0%	27.6%
23	Max Miller	G	So	6'0"	5-0	3.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	25.1%
21	Aidan Crotty	G	So	5'11"	5-0	2.4	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.2	80.0%	66.7%	0.6	—	27.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Fordham

Against the spread

Season

16-12-1

Home

8-8

Road

6-3-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

7-22

Home

2-14

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.2

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	N	L 62–66	+6.0	W+2.0	141.0	U128	97.2	103.5	63.8
Mar 7	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	H	W 61–49	−2.0	W+10.0	135.5	U110	94.4	75.8	64.6
Mar 4	La SalleAdjEM #256	A	L 84–87	−2.5	L−5.5	131.5	O171	124.3	128.7	67.6
Feb 28	VCUAdjEM #39	A	L 63–82	+12.5	L−6.5	143.5	O145	92.4	120.2	68.2
Feb 21	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	W 63–59	+1.0	W+5.0	132.0	U122	105.1	98.4	60.0
Feb 18	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	H	W 62–59	−8.0	L−5.0	136.5	U121	92.3	87.9	67.1
Feb 14	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	W 70–66 OT	+5.0	W+9.0	132.5	O136	101.2	95.5	69.1
Feb 10	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	A	W 68–64	+4.0	W+8.0	136.5	U132	106.7	100.5	63.7
Feb 7	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	L 67–70	+1.5	L−1.5	140.0	U137	108.1	112.9	62.0
Feb 3	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 59–63	+7.0	W+3.0	147.5	U122	92.2	98.5	64.0

Kansas

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-5

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −5.2

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-24

Home

6-9

Road

3-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#5St John'sAdjEM #16	N	L 65–67	+3.5	W+1.5	145.5	U132	92.7	95.5	70.2
Mar 20	#13CA BaptistAdjEM #102	N	W 68–60	−14.0	L−6.0	142.0	U128	98.1	86.5	69.3
Mar 13	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 47–69	+5.5	L−16.5	138.0	U116	79.3	116.4	59.3
Mar 12	TCUAdjEM #51	N	W 78–73	−5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	104.6	97.9	74.6
Mar 7	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 104–85	−17.5	W+1.5	157.0	O189	133.2	108.9	78.0
Mar 3	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 60–70	−6.0	L−16.0	150.0	U130	82.8	96.7	72.4
Feb 28	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 61–84	+10.0	L−13.0	151.5	U145	88.2	121.4	69.2
Feb 23	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	H	W 69–56	+2.5	W+15.5	138.0	U125	106.3	86.3	64.9
Feb 21	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	L 68–84	−9.0	L−25.0	139.0	O152	100.5	124.2	67.7
Feb 18	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	W 81–69	−6.5	W+5.5	159.5	U150	115.2	98.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FordhamKansas

Efficiency

105.4

112.9

105.1

98.9

66.2

68.5

—

Shooting

48.6%

51.2%

51.9%

50.9%

28.9%

34.6%

70.2%

76.7%

26.4%

32.2%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

15.6%

17.2%

13.8%

34.1%

29.2%

26.8%

29.9%

8.8%

9.5%

8.5%

8.1%

Style

38.3%

35.2%

48.9%

44.7%

11.1%

13.8%

52.4%

52.3%

29.5%

25.2%

Roster

3.07

2.04

6'5.8"

6'4.9"

—

28.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Fordham

Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 99.7%

ESPN hasn't posted Fordham's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kansas

Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 18.1%

Lost

Melvin Council Jr. 34.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Flory Bidunga 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Tre White 31.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryson Tiller 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Darryn Peterson 19.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Corbin Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.