CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceGSU Convocation Center, Atlanta, GA
Bowling Green
Efficiency #114
2025-26: 18-14 · 9-10 conf
@
Georgia St
Efficiency #310
2025-26: 10-22 · 7-12 conf
Mon, Nov 2 · TBD
73.7
win 62%
Projected
70.3
win 38%
No line posted yet.
Model: BGSU −3.4 · total 144.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia St 68.7, Bowling Green 68.9 → 69.3 possessions
+2.1
Georgia St offense vs Bowling Green defense
−6.9
Bowling Green offense vs Georgia St defense
+0.5
Projected total
144.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia St offense vs Bowling Green defense
−6.9
Bowling Green offense vs Georgia St defense
−0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Bowling Green by 3.4
3.4
Bowling Green side ◂▸ Georgia St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.9 against a projected 144.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bowling Green is the faster team (70.2, #86 of 365) and Georgia St the slower (68.8, #161). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.0
model
Projected team totals
73.7 / 70.3
Bowling Green / Georgia St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.9#128
Bowling Green
68.7#146
Georgia St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageGeorgia St
Where Georgia St struggles: shooting
Georgia St shoots an effective 44.2% (#362); Bowling Green allows 51.0% (#163). Expect about 47.0%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassGeorgia St
Georgia St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Georgia St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Georgia St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bowling Green at about 34.9% of its shots from three, Georgia St about 43.0%.
DefenseBowling Green
Bowling Green's ball-hawking
Bowling Green ranks #31 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.6% of Georgia St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Bowling Green has the ball
OffenseGeorgia St allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #153
50.6% #135
-0.0 pt/100
16.5% #166
16.4% #197
+0.5 pt/100
28.7% #244
33.6% #312
+0.2 pt/100
37.0% #129
34.9% #175
+0.1 pt/100
72.3% #196
—
-0.0 pt/100
Bowling Green net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100
Georgia St has the ball
OffenseBowling Green allowsvs D1 avg
44.2% #362
51.0% #163
-6.0 pt/100
15.9% #133
18.4% #80
-0.7 pt/100
27.7% #278
26.9% #31
-2.2 pt/100
37.2% #124
37.2% #243
+0.3 pt/100
78.6% #11
—
+0.5 pt/100
Georgia St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bowling Greenoffense vsGeorgia Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Bowling Green shoots
Georgia St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.4%#21457.4%#12758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30637.9%#13439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27438.1%#16138.0%
Three34.4%#14833.1%#13233.7%
Georgia Stoffense vsBowling Greendefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia St shoots
Bowling Green allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.3%#35855.8%#8158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29646.3%#32339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28440.2%#25138.0%
Three30.6%#32933.5%#16133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bowling Green
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#98 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#244
Def reb %
73.1%
#31
Turnover %
16.5%
#166
Forced TO %
18.4%
#80
FT rate
37.0%
#129
FT allowed
37.2%
#243
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Georgia St
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#222 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#278
Def reb %
66.4%
#312
Turnover %
15.9%
#133
Forced TO %
16.4%
#197
FT rate
37.2%
#124
FT allowed
34.9%
#175
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Bowling Green has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#98 of 365) to Georgia St’s −0.9 (#222).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bowling Green2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Jayden Johnsonat SC StateGJr6'1"32-2927.413.43.03.52.648.8%37.0%3.172.6%31.5%
8Juan Cranford Jr.at E KentuckyGJr6'4"32-2925.912.12.51.61.453.3%36.3%7.079.6%27.2%
4Josiah ShackelfordGJr6'5"32-1422.811.33.50.91.052.0%35.3%3.674.7%27.2%
3Makhi LeachGSo6'2"25-08.83.21.10.40.647.5%11.1%0.775.0%21.9%
34Aiden GoinsFSr6'9"25-08.54.51.40.20.648.3%25.0%0.887.9%29.6%
22Christ Essandokoat South CarolinaFSr7'1"21-47.52.01.60.30.538.6%37.5%0.850.0%23.1%
0Tristan Beckfordat South FloridaGSo6'7"19-17.92.91.90.30.352.7%23.1%0.772.7%19.2%
15Camden KarelFSo6'9"19-05.92.11.30.10.464.6%50.0%0.150.0%18.0%
13Preston SquireFJr6'11"4-05.01.00.80.30.050.0%0.0%0.5—10.0%
5Christian DedivanajGSo6'3"5-02.40.40.80.60.0100.0%—0.0—4.0%
2KJ TorbertGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Leek AtenyFFr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Talan StaleyGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Trey SimmonsGJr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Zach HowellGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Tristan Beckford (from South Florida), Juan Cranford Jr. (from E Kentucky), Christ Essandoko (from South Carolina), Jayden Johnson (from SC State)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Bowling GreenGeorgia St
Efficiency
107.8
101.9
105.1
109.9
68.9
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.8%
44.2%
51.9%
42.9%
34.4%
30.6%
72.3%
78.6%
37.0%
37.2%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
15.9%
18.4%
16.4%
28.7%
27.7%
26.9%
33.6%
9.0%
8.6%
9.8%
8.7%
Style
34.2%
42.4%
48.7%
32.1%
19.8%
10.3%
48.5%
50.6%
28.7%
33.0%
Roster
2.96
2.24
6'4.4"
6'5.7"
20.3%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bowling Green
Returning minutes: 20.3%Returning production: 18.4%
Lost
  • Javontae Campbell 34.1 mpg, 18.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Sam Towns 32.0 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Thomas 24.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Troy Glover II 22.9 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Javon Ruffin 22.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mayar Wol 20.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jayden Johnson from SC State · 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
  • Juan Cranford Jr. from E Kentucky · 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
  • Christ Essandoko from South Carolina · 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
  • Tristan Beckford from South Florida · 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
  • Zach Howell no D1 minutes last season
  • Talan Staley no D1 minutes last season

Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Georgia St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Georgia St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.