CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 143.9 against a projected 144.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 69.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bowling Green is the faster team (70.2, #86 of 365) and Georgia St the slower (68.8, #161). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.4%#214 | 57.4%#127 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.8%#306 | 37.9%#134 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.5%#274 | 38.1%#161 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.4%#148 | 33.1%#132 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.3%#358 | 55.8%#81 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 34.4%#296 | 46.3%#323 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.2%#284 | 40.2%#251 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.6%#329 | 33.5%#161 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBowling Green has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#98 of 365) to Georgia St’s −0.9 (#222).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jayden Johnsonat SC State | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-29 | 27.4 | 13.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 48.8% | 37.0% | 3.1 | 72.6% | 31.5% | |
| 8 | Juan Cranford Jr.at E Kentucky | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 25.9 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 36.3% | 7.0 | 79.6% | 27.2% | |
| 4 | Josiah Shackelford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 22.8 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 52.0% | 35.3% | 3.6 | 74.7% | 27.2% | |
| 3 | Makhi Leach | G | So | 6'2" | 25-0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 47.5% | 11.1% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 21.9% | |
| 34 | Aiden Goins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 48.3% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 87.9% | 29.6% | |
| 22 | Christ Essandokoat South Carolina | F | Sr | 7'1" | 21-4 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 38.6% | 37.5% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 23.1% | |
| 0 | Tristan Beckfordat South Florida | G | So | 6'7" | 19-1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 52.7% | 23.1% | 0.7 | 72.7% | 19.2% | |
| 15 | Camden Karel | F | So | 6'9" | 19-0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 64.6% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 18.0% | |
| 13 | Preston Squire | F | Jr | 6'11" | 4-0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Christian Dedivanaj | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 4.0% | |
| 2 | KJ Torbert | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Leek Ateny | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Talan Staley | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey Simmons | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Zach Howell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Malachi Brown | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-31 | 31.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 48.7% | 36.5% | 5.2 | 79.3% | 25.9% | |
| 0 | Micah Tucker | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-28 | 31.5 | 13.5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 48.6% | 32.5% | 3.8 | 81.3% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Jelani Hamilton | G | So | 6'5" | 27-26 | 31.2 | 17.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 44.6% | 34.0% | 5.8 | 88.4% | 34.5% | |
| 12 | Anthony Enoh | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 22.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 37.4% | 23.3% | 1.4 | 65.2% | 17.2% | |
| 6 | Joah Chappelle | F | So | 6'8" | 28-19 | 23.6 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 37.8% | 1.6 | 70.6% | 18.8% | |
| 20 | Ayouba Berthe | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-2 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 38.3% | 27.9% | 3.8 | 81.8% | 19.8% | |
| 4 | Trey Scott III | F | Fr | 6'11" | 26-3 | 20.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 47.1% | 28.1% | 2.5 | 66.7% | 17.0% | |
| 32 | Christian Beam | C | So | 7'1" | 26-15 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 47.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 14.4% | |
| 1 | Jakai Newton | G | So | 6'4" | 21-6 | 17.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 39.8% | 26.2% | 3.1 | 82.1% | 28.9% | |
| 2 | James Cooper | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-10 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 37.5% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 10.0% | |
| 55 | Chris Jones | G | Fr | 6'6" | 19-0 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 8 | Isaiah Sherrard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 11-3 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 16.4% | |
| 9 | Kwame Tanic | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 21 | Clash Peters | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Emmanuel Koveos | G | Jr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jayden Johnsonat SC State | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-29 | 27.4 | 13.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 48.8% | 37.0% | 3.1 | 72.6% | 31.5% | |
| 8 | Juan Cranford Jr.at E Kentucky | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 25.9 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 36.3% | 7.0 | 79.6% | 27.2% | |
| 4 | Josiah Shackelford | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-14 | 22.8 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 52.0% | 35.3% | 3.6 | 74.7% | 27.2% | |
| 3 | Makhi Leach | G | So | 6'2" | 25-0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 47.5% | 11.1% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 21.9% | |
| 34 | Aiden Goins | F | Sr | 6'9" | 25-0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 48.3% | 25.0% | 0.8 | 87.9% | 29.6% | |
| 22 | Christ Essandokoat South Carolina | F | Sr | 7'1" | 21-4 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 38.6% | 37.5% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 23.1% | |
| 0 | Tristan Beckfordat South Florida | G | So | 6'7" | 19-1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 52.7% | 23.1% | 0.7 | 72.7% | 19.2% | |
| 15 | Camden Karel | F | So | 6'9" | 19-0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 64.6% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 18.0% | |
| 13 | Preston Squire | F | Jr | 6'11" | 4-0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 10.0% | |
| 5 | Christian Dedivanaj | G | So | 6'3" | 5-0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 4.0% | |
| 2 | KJ Torbert | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 35 | Leek Ateny | F | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Talan Staley | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey Simmons | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Zach Howell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | Toledo | N | L 76–77 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O153 | 111.6 | 113.1 | 68.1 |
| Mar 6 | E Michigan | A | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 143.0 | O146 | 108.2 | 96.9 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | UMass | H | W 81–62 | −4.0 | W+15.0 | 151.5 | U143 | 123.5 | 94.5 | 65.6 |
| Feb 24 | W Michigan | H | L 79–88 | −12.0 | L−21.0 | 149.0 | O167 | 108.3 | 120.6 | 73.0 |
| Feb 20 | #22Miami OH | A | L 77–91 | +8.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 123.0 | 74.0 |
| Feb 17 | Kent State | H | L 71–78 | −2.5 | L−9.5 | 151.5 | U149 | 97.9 | 107.5 | 72.5 |
| Feb 14 | Toledo | H | W 80–70 | −4.0 | W+6.0 | 150.0 | P150 | 122.0 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Feb 11 | N Illinois | A | W 68–52 | −7.5 | W+8.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 97.6 | 74.6 | 69.7 |
| Feb 7 | Arkansas St | A | L 54–91 | +3.5 | L−33.5 | 155.0 | U145 | 71.8 | 121.0 | 75.2 |
| Feb 3 | Ball State | H | W 77–52 | −11.0 | W+14.0 | 138.0 | U129 | 123.0 | 83.1 | 62.6 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | Louisiana | N | L 75–84 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 134.0 | O159 | 108.3 | 121.3 | 69.3 |
| Feb 27 | Old Dominion | H | L 73–81 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 149.5 | O154 | 99.1 | 109.9 | 73.7 |
| Feb 24 | Coastal | H | L 71–76 | +1.0 | L−4.0 | 141.0 | O147 | 105.9 | 113.3 | 67.1 |
| Feb 21 | James Madison | H | L 65–80 | +2.5 | L−12.5 | 142.5 | O145 | 97.0 | 119.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 19 | GA Southern | H | W 66–64 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 155.0 | U130 | 96.2 | 93.3 | 68.6 |
| Feb 14 | Old Dominion | A | L 55–78 | +4.0 | L−19.0 | 147.0 | U133 | 85.2 | 120.8 | 64.6 |
| Feb 12 | James Madison | A | L 79–81 OT | +6.0 | W+4.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 106.8 | 109.5 | 74.0 |
| Feb 7 | N Illinois | H | L 74–75 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 142.0 | O149 | 103.4 | 104.8 | 71.6 |
| Feb 4 | Troy | H | L 63–74 | +5.5 | L−5.5 | 145.5 | U137 | 98.6 | 115.9 | 63.9 |
| Jan 31 | South Alabama | A | L 67–69 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 139.5 | U136 | 111.5 | 114.9 | 60.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Javontae Campbell 34.1 mpg, 18.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sam Towns 32.0 mpg, 11.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Justin Thomas 24.3 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Troy Glover II 22.9 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Javon Ruffin 22.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mayar Wol 20.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayden Johnson from SC State · 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
- Juan Cranford Jr. from E Kentucky · 25.9 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Christ Essandoko from South Carolina · 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Tristan Beckford from South Florida · 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Zach Howell no D1 minutes last season
- Talan Staley no D1 minutes last season
Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.