CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceState Farm Center, Champaign, IL

FDU

Efficiency #332

2025-26: 11-21 · 8-11 conf

Illinois

Efficiency #4

2025-26: 28-9 · 15-6 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

60.3

win 2%

Projected

84.5

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILL −24.2 · total 144.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois 67.0, FDU 66.2 → 64.9 possessions

−7.5

Illinois offense vs FDU defense

+12.3

FDU offense vs Illinois defense

−8.2

Projected total

144.9

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Illinois offense vs FDU defense

+12.3

FDU offense vs Illinois defense

+8.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Illinois by 24.2

24.2

FDU side ◂▸ Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.8 against a projected 144.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Illinois is the faster team (65.7, #310 of 365) and FDU the slower (64.1, #352). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

144.9

model

Projected team totals

60.3 / 84.5

FDU / Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#337

FDU

67.0#289

Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFDU

Where FDU struggles: shooting

FDU shoots an effective 47.1% (#333); Illinois allows 47.3% (#26). Expect about 46.9%, 4.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageIllinois

Where Illinois scores: shooting

Illinois shoots an effective 54.7% (#46); FDU allows 55.2% (#336). Expect about 55.2%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Illinois averages 65.7 possessions per 40, FDU 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversIllinois

Illinois protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.3% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Illinois's offense.

TurnoversFDU

FDU protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.3% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for FDU's offense.

ClashIllinois

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Illinois (#3 in offensive rebounding) against FDU (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 35.0%. Historically Illinois's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

FDU has the ball

OffenseIllinois allowsvs D1 avg

47.1% #333

47.3% #26

-6.3 pt/100

18.1% #280

11.6% #365

+3.1 pt/100

32.0% #125

26.7% #28

-0.4 pt/100

32.8% #240

19.7% #1

-1.3 pt/100

70.1% #272

—

-0.2 pt/100

FDU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.1 pts/100

Illinois has the ball

OffenseFDU allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #46

55.2% #336

+5.6 pt/100

13.1% #10

16.1% #216

+3.1 pt/100

39.2% #3

27.3% #46

+2.8 pt/100

33.2% #232

36.3% #217

-0.0 pt/100

78.0% #17

—

+0.5 pt/100

Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +12.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FDUoffense vsIllinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

FDU shoots

35.6

5.8

14.0

44.6

Illinois allows

27.0

7.0

21.9

44.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#236	59.4%#208	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.3%#239	37.7%#129	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#337	35.8%#101	38.0%
Three	30.3%#339	31.3%#38	33.7%

Illinoisoffense vsFDUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois shoots

32.9

6.9

10.2

49.9

FDU allows

35.4

6.8

17.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.5%#11	60.0%#224	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	38.5%#148	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#181	43.3%#331	38.0%
Three	34.5%#142	37.8%#354	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FDU

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#205 of 365

Off reb %

32.0%

#125

Def reb %

72.7%

#46

Turnover %

18.1%

#280

Forced TO %

16.1%

#216

FT rate

32.8%

#240

FT allowed

36.3%

#217

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Illinois

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365

Off reb %

39.2%

Def reb %

73.3%

#28

Turnover %

13.1%

#10

Forced TO %

11.6%

#365

FT rate

33.2%

#232

FT allowed

19.7%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−3.5

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+4.0

Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#9 of 365) to FDU’s −0.6 (#205).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	David Mirkovic	F	Fr	6'9"	37-36	29.5	13.3	8.0	2.6	1.9	56.2%	37.5%	4.1	75.7%	27.3%
2	Andrej Stojakovic	G	Jr	6'7"	34-21	26.3	13.5	4.5	1.0	1.3	53.0%	24.4%	2.4	80.5%	30.0%
13	Tomislav Ivisic	C	Jr	7'1"	34-33	25.4	10.4	5.6	1.6	1.4	57.6%	31.3%	4.7	77.8%	24.5%
15	Jake Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	37-22	19.6	5.4	2.2	0.7	0.2	61.2%	40.6%	3.6	75.0%	13.9%
44	Zvonimir Ivisic	C	Jr	7'2"	37-4	17.2	6.4	4.5	0.3	0.5	59.1%	28.0%	2.7	69.2%	20.2%
77	Mihailo Petrovic	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	6.1	1.7	0.8	1.2	0.7	36.1%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	27.7%
1	Brandon Lee	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	4.8	1.9	0.4	0.2	0.3	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	93.3%	23.7%
31	Jason Jakstys	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	5.2	1.3	1.9	0.2	0.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	9.3%
8	Blake Fagbemi	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	3.5	0.2	1.0	0.4	0.2	20.0%	—	0.0	—	10.0%
5	AJ Redd	G	Sr	6'3"	11-0	2.4	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	32.6%
20	Ty Rodgers	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FDU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Joey Niesman	G	Sr	6'2"	32-28	33.9	12.3	3.8	3.2	1.9	50.3%	34.3%	5.4	74.1%	24.8%
2	Taeshaud Jackson	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	29.6	10.3	8.4	1.6	1.8	48.6%	21.6%	1.6	76.2%	23.9%
7	Eric Parnell	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	25.7	10.7	2.2	0.7	0.5	49.8%	33.1%	7.6	81.8%	26.2%
22	Cyril Martynov	C	Sr	7'0"	32-32	25.6	8.1	5.4	2.3	1.9	53.9%	14.3%	0.2	53.6%	22.8%
35	David Jevtic	G	Fr	6'8"	31-10	20.3	6.6	3.4	1.2	1.3	48.0%	32.6%	3.0	66.0%	24.0%
55	Arthur Cox	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	20.1	8.8	3.7	1.3	1.6	48.9%	29.2%	2.2	78.0%	29.3%
3	Raysean Johnson	G	So	6'1"	31-17	17.4	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	43.4%	27.6%	1.9	67.9%	20.1%
8	Noah Melson	G	Jr	6'6"	25-6	17.3	6.0	1.6	0.5	0.6	45.6%	32.7%	3.9	53.8%	24.7%
24	Ras Elijah Godbolt	G	Fr	6'0"	30-2	11.7	1.3	0.8	0.9	0.3	30.2%	21.1%	0.6	86.7%	10.5%
15	Josiah Francis	G	So	6'8"	14-0	6.9	1.4	2.1	0.0	0.6	31.8%	18.2%	0.8	83.3%	20.7%
9	Sebastian Haubro	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	3.7	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.2	40.0%	—	0.0	90.0%	10.7%
5	Chid Ekwommadu	G	So	6'6"	2-0	8.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	14.2%
11	Tyler McQuaid	G	Fr	6'0"	7-0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	16.1%
21	Cole Alexander	F	Sr	6'7"	5-1	1.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	30.3%
30	Andrew Canda	G	So	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Kody Frey	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FDU

Against the spread

Season

9-19-1

Home

4-6-1

Road

5-13

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −2.7

Missed the spread 6 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-19

Home

4-7

Road

6-12

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	L 61–70	+4.0	L−5.0	132.5	U131	94.2	108.0	64.8
Feb 28	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 60–74	+9.0	L−5.0	137.5	U134	95.3	117.6	62.9
Feb 26	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 59–76	+4.5	L−12.5	139.5	U135	92.2	118.7	64.0
Feb 21	New HavenAdjEM #326	H	L 77–84	−2.5	L−9.5	124.5	O161	122.6	133.7	62.8
Feb 19	Chicago StAdjEM #342	A	W 60–59	−2.0	L−1.0	132.0	U119	113.5	111.6	52.9
Feb 14	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	H	L 57–63	+1.0	L−5.0	134.0	U120	100.9	111.5	56.5
Feb 12	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 66–59	−7.0	P0.0	142.5	U125	100.9	90.2	65.4
Feb 7	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 55–52	−2.5	W+0.5	131.0	U107	101.4	95.9	54.3
Feb 5	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 74–58	−1.0	W+15.0	131.0	O132	116.1	91.0	63.7
Jan 31	WagnerAdjEM #285	A	L 72–75 OT	−1.5	L−4.5	135.5	O147	105.0	109.4	68.6

Illinois

Against the spread

Season

19-15-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-22

Home

5-11

Road

7-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.1

Under 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 62–71	−1.5	L−10.5	139.0	U133	97.6	111.8	63.5
Mar 28	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 71–59	−7.0	W+5.0	138.5	U130	129.5	107.6	54.8
Mar 26	#2HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 65–55	+2.5	W+12.5	139.5	U120	111.2	94.1	58.5
Mar 21	#11VCUAdjEM #39	N	W 76–55	−12.0	W+9.0	150.5	U131	115.2	83.4	66.0
Mar 19	#14PennAdjEM #162	N	W 105–70	−25.5	W+9.5	151.0	O175	154.5	103.0	68.0
Mar 13	#23WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	L 88–91 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	157.0	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Mar 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	A	W 78–72	−14.0	L−8.0	145.0	O150	127.4	117.6	61.2
Mar 3	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 80–54	−17.5	W+8.5	147.0	U134	116.9	78.9	68.5
Feb 27	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 70–84	+2.0	L−12.0	159.5	U154	105.4	126.5	66.4
Feb 21	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 94–95 OT	−6.0	L−7.0	147.0	O189	129.0	130.4	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FDUIllinois

Efficiency

103.2

122.5

113.4

101.2

66.2

67.0

—

Shooting

47.1%

54.7%

48.6%

57.5%

30.3%

34.5%

70.1%

78.0%

32.8%

33.2%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

13.1%

16.1%

11.6%

32.0%

39.2%

27.3%

26.7%

9.8%

8.2%

9.4%

8.2%

Style

45.2%

49.7%

40.1%

39.7%

5.7%

6.8%

51.0%

50.0%

32.0%

29.2%

Roster

3.23

2.40

6'5.4"

6'9.3"

—

60.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FDU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FDU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Illinois

Returning minutes: 60.1%Returning production: 60.0%

Lost

Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.