CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFirst National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR

Toledo

Efficiency #115

2025-26: 19-15 · 13-8 conf

Arkansas St

Efficiency #132

2025-26: 20-12 · 11-8 conf

Mon, Nov 2 · TBD

78.2

win 38%

Projected

81.9

win 62%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARST −3.6 · total 160.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Arkansas St 71.4, Toledo 68.7 → 71.7 possessions

+7.4

Arkansas St offense vs Toledo defense

+2.0

Toledo offense vs Arkansas St defense

+2.5

Projected total

160.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Arkansas St offense vs Toledo defense

+2.0

Toledo offense vs Arkansas St defense

−2.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Arkansas St by 3.6

3.6

Toledo side ◂▸ Arkansas St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arkansas St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arkansas St is the faster team (72.5, #15 of 365) and Toledo the slower (69.5, #114). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

160.1

model

Projected team totals

78.2 / 81.9

Toledo / Arkansas St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#151

Toledo

71.4#11

Arkansas St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageArkansas St

Where Arkansas St scores: the offensive glass

Arkansas St rebounds 38.2% of its own misses (#6); Toledo lets opponents grab 33.7% of their own misses (#313). Expect about 37.5%, 7.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Arkansas St averages 72.5 possessions per 40, Toledo 69.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversArkansas St

Arkansas St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 19.2% is worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions against Arkansas St's offense.

AdvantageToledo

Where Toledo scores: ball control

Toledo turns it over on 14.7% of possessions (#51); Arkansas St forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#299). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Toledo) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Toledo at about 33.5% of its shots from three, Arkansas St about 44.1%.

Toledo has the ball

OffenseArkansas St allowsvs D1 avg

54.5% #50

50.3% #117

+1.9 pt/100

14.7% #51

14.9% #299

+2.9 pt/100

29.5% #220

27.0% #36

-1.4 pt/100

30.5% #298

37.0% #237

-0.1 pt/100

75.4% #70

—

+0.3 pt/100

Toledo net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100

Arkansas St has the ball

OffenseToledo allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #164

54.3% #308

+2.5 pt/100

19.8% #345

17.9% #103

-3.0 pt/100

38.2% #6

33.7% #313

+4.3 pt/100

39.1% #78

26.6% #16

-0.4 pt/100

73.3% #160

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arkansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Toledooffense vsArkansas Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Toledo shoots

40.0

9.7

17.9

32.4

Arkansas St allows

36.6

6.1

18.9

38.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#220	58.4%#162	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	52.0%#6	42.7%#243	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.6%#5	38.7%#187	38.0%
Three	37.0%#29	32.9%#115	33.7%

Arkansas Stoffense vsToledodefense

Share of shots by zone

Arkansas St shoots

39.9

6.0

8.6

45.5

Toledo allows

42.6

6.8

11.0

39.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#137	61.9%#299	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.0%#288	53.7%#363	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.6%#272	35.7%#98	38.0%
Three	32.9%#240	34.4%#215	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Toledo

+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#99 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#220

Def reb %

66.3%

#313

Turnover %

14.7%

#51

Forced TO %

17.9%

#103

FT rate

30.5%

#298

FT allowed

26.6%

#16

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security+1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed+2.2

Arkansas St

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#139 of 365

Off reb %

38.2%

Def reb %

73.0%

#36

Turnover %

19.8%

#345

Forced TO %

14.9%

#299

FT rate

39.1%

#78

FT allowed

37.0%

#237

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Toledo has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#99 of 365) to Arkansas St’s +1.0 (#139).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Toledo2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Sonny Wilson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	36.2	17.0	3.7	4.6	1.6	53.7%	37.8%	3.3	69.4%	26.5%
2	Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	34-32	33.4	16.4	4.0	4.5	1.9	55.4%	40.7%	5.6	84.6%	26.9%
7	Sean Craig	F	Sr	6'7"	34-32	31.6	11.6	7.3	1.5	1.1	55.2%	35.6%	3.1	75.0%	20.0%
25	Austin Parks	C	Jr	6'10"	34-34	25.2	10.7	5.6	1.9	1.8	62.4%	27.3%	0.3	71.3%	22.8%
4	Kyler Vanderjagt	G	Sr	6'4"	34-21	22.1	8.4	1.7	1.1	1.2	54.7%	38.2%	3.0	78.8%	21.7%
32	Jaylan Ouwinga	F	So	6'9"	34-2	18.6	6.3	3.4	0.6	0.9	53.0%	30.8%	1.1	63.6%	20.4%
5	Mynor Strong	G	So	6'3"	33-15	17.7	5.2	1.8	0.8	0.6	49.3%	34.9%	1.9	89.3%	18.3%
11	Will James Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	34-0	9.4	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.6	54.3%	29.4%	0.5	88.2%	19.7%
21	London Praytor	F	Fr	7'0"	15-0	4.9	2.4	1.7	0.3	0.3	48.4%	23.5%	1.1	100.0%	28.9%
22	Tyler Ode	G	So	6'5"	12-0	3.8	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.7	—	13.8%
10	Chris Riddle	F	So	6'5"	3-0	13.0	4.3	2.0	1.7	1.7	65.0%	20.0%	1.7	—	21.7%
0	Toby Nwokolo	F	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	22.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arkansas St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Christian Harmon	G	Jr	6'6"	32-28	27.5	12.8	3.7	2.5	2.0	52.2%	34.6%	7.6	81.8%	26.8%
0	Chandler Jackson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-30	26.9	10.6	3.4	4.6	2.1	51.7%	25.9%	1.7	70.5%	23.5%
12	Jalen Hampton	G	Sr	6'7"	30-22	26.2	8.3	9.0	1.6	1.6	58.6%	32.3%	1.0	75.0%	17.6%
22	Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	Sr	6'9"	32-13	22.7	9.7	4.8	0.7	1.3	54.8%	34.7%	3.0	75.6%	23.0%
1	Matt Hayman	G	Sr	6'5"	31-22	22.7	11.7	3.1	2.3	1.8	50.0%	33.2%	5.9	79.5%	31.7%
2	TJ Caldwell	G	Jr	6'4"	32-6	20.2	9.4	2.7	1.0	1.3	48.5%	33.8%	4.1	82.8%	26.8%
10	Chudi Dioramma	F	So	6'10"	25-8	15.5	5.1	4.1	0.7	0.7	50.5%	—	0.0	66.0%	19.2%
20	Joey Chammaa	G	So	5'11"	21-1	16.9	9.9	2.2	1.8	1.5	51.0%	32.7%	2.6	81.5%	29.9%
3	Royal Blue Smith	G	Fr	6'4"	27-3	13.1	5.4	1.7	1.1	1.1	55.2%	36.1%	2.7	53.1%	24.8%
21	Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	So	6'8"	18-6	10.7	4.0	1.9	0.3	0.7	48.5%	25.0%	1.8	50.0%	24.4%
15	CJ Geathers	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Grayson Bennett	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Rho Omed	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Tim Matthews	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Weston Honeycutt	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Toledo2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Sonny Wilson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	36.2	17.0	3.7	4.6	1.6	53.7%	37.8%	3.3	69.4%	26.5%
2	Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	34-32	33.4	16.4	4.0	4.5	1.9	55.4%	40.7%	5.6	84.6%	26.9%
7	Sean Craig	F	Sr	6'7"	34-32	31.6	11.6	7.3	1.5	1.1	55.2%	35.6%	3.1	75.0%	20.0%
25	Austin Parks	C	Jr	6'10"	34-34	25.2	10.7	5.6	1.9	1.8	62.4%	27.3%	0.3	71.3%	22.8%
4	Kyler Vanderjagt	G	Sr	6'4"	34-21	22.1	8.4	1.7	1.1	1.2	54.7%	38.2%	3.0	78.8%	21.7%
32	Jaylan Ouwinga	F	So	6'9"	34-2	18.6	6.3	3.4	0.6	0.9	53.0%	30.8%	1.1	63.6%	20.4%
5	Mynor Strong	G	So	6'3"	33-15	17.7	5.2	1.8	0.8	0.6	49.3%	34.9%	1.9	89.3%	18.3%
11	Will James Jr.	G	Fr	6'4"	34-0	9.4	3.1	1.7	0.8	0.6	54.3%	29.4%	0.5	88.2%	19.7%
21	London Praytor	F	Fr	7'0"	15-0	4.9	2.4	1.7	0.3	0.3	48.4%	23.5%	1.1	100.0%	28.9%
22	Tyler Ode	G	So	6'5"	12-0	3.8	0.8	0.3	0.2	0.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.7	—	13.8%
10	Chris Riddle	F	So	6'5"	3-0	13.0	4.3	2.0	1.7	1.7	65.0%	20.0%	1.7	—	21.7%
0	Toby Nwokolo	F	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	22.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Toledo

Against the spread

Season

19-13

Home

6-7

Road

10-4

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.4

Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-18-1

Home

6-7

Road

6-7-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total +1.0

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	AkronAdjEM #48	N	L 76–79	+8.0	W+5.0	157.5	U155	111.4	115.8	68.2
Mar 13	UMassAdjEM #184	N	W 77–67	−3.0	W+7.0	158.0	U144	109.5	95.3	70.3
Mar 12	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	N	W 77–76	−1.5	L−0.5	152.0	O153	113.1	111.6	68.1
Mar 6	BuffaloAdjEM #186	H	W 99–78	−5.5	W+15.5	156.5	O177	151.8	119.6	65.2
Mar 3	#19Miami OHAdjEM #66	A	L 72–74	+8.0	W+6.0	162.5	U146	104.7	107.6	68.8
Feb 28	OhioAdjEM #233	A	W 79–67	+2.5	W+14.5	159.0	U146	119.4	101.2	66.2
Feb 24	N IllinoisAdjEM #341	H	W 79–69	−12.5	L−2.5	150.0	U148	119.5	104.3	66.1
Feb 21	E MichiganAdjEM #247	H	W 94–75	−8.5	W+10.5	147.0	O169	131.9	105.2	71.3
Feb 14	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	A	L 70–80	+4.0	L−6.0	150.0	P150	106.7	122.0	65.6
Feb 11	W MichiganAdjEM #276	A	W 90–79	−6.5	W+4.5	154.5	O169	131.0	115.0	68.7

Arkansas St

Against the spread

Season

15-15

Home

7-6

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-14-1

Home

5-7-1

Road

10-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.7

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	N	L 77–80	−7.5	L−10.5	166.0	U157	112.0	116.4	68.7
Feb 27	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	W 81–58	−14.0	W+9.0	146.5	U139	107.1	76.7	75.7
Feb 24	Southern MissAdjEM #218	H	W 89–84	−9.0	L−4.0	158.0	O173	112.8	106.4	78.9
Feb 21	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	A	W 102–94	−15.5	L−7.5	164.0	O196	131.2	120.9	77.8
Feb 19	LouisianaAdjEM #318	A	W 79–62	−9.0	W+8.0	145.0	U141	114.9	90.2	68.8
Feb 14	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	H	L 88–92 OT	−7.5	L−11.5	150.0	O180	115.3	120.6	76.3
Feb 11	UL MonroeAdjEM #351	H	W 103–70	−21.0	W+12.0	163.0	O173	139.2	94.6	74.0
Feb 7	Bowling GreenAdjEM #114	H	W 91–54	−3.5	W+33.5	155.0	U145	121.0	71.8	75.2
Feb 4	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	W 70–66	−5.0	L−1.0	151.5	U136	100.0	94.3	70.0
Jan 31	MarshallAdjEM #175	H	L 61–70	−4.0	L−13.0	165.5	U131	96.1	110.2	63.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ToledoArkansas St

Efficiency

112.5

109.9

109.8

107.9

68.7

71.4

—

Shooting

54.5%

51.7%

54.0%

53.6%

37.0%

32.9%

75.4%

73.3%

30.5%

39.1%

Ball control & glass

14.7%

19.8%

17.9%

14.9%

29.5%

38.2%

33.7%

27.0%

9.0%

12.2%

8.5%

10.2%

Style

32.5%

44.9%

47.8%

43.0%

16.8%

13.8%

53.1%

55.8%

23.9%

38.2%

Roster

2.62

3.24

6'4.7"

6'5.8"

—

91.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Toledo

Returning minutes: 99.4%Returning production: 99.5%

ESPN hasn't posted Toledo's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Arkansas St

Returning minutes: 91.0%Returning production: 91.7%

Lost

Aly Tounkara 18.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Tim Matthews no D1 minutes last season
Weston Honeycutt no D1 minutes last season
Rho Omed no D1 minutes last season
CJ Geathers no D1 minutes last season
Grayson Bennett no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 91% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.