CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameMontagne Center, Beaumont, TX

N'Western St

Efficiency #299

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-15 conf

Lamar

Efficiency #236

2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · 7:00 PM ET

66.0

win 29%

Projected

72.3

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: LAM −6.3 · total 138.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Lamar 67.0, N'Western St 66.6 → 65.3 possessions

−6.5

Lamar offense vs N'Western St defense

−0.4

N'Western St offense vs Lamar defense

−3.0

Projected total

138.3

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Lamar offense vs N'Western St defense

−0.4

N'Western St offense vs Lamar defense

+3.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Lamar by 6.3

6.3

N'Western St side ◂▸ Lamar side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.4 against +6.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Lamar.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Lamar is the faster team (65.8, #301 of 365) and N'Western St the slower (65.2, #329). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.3

model

Projected team totals

66.0 / 72.3

N'Western St / Lamar

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.6#314

N'Western St

67.0#287

Lamar

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Lamar averages 65.8 possessions per 40, N'Western St 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageLamar

Where Lamar scores: the offensive glass

Lamar rebounds 35.7% of its own misses (#31); N'Western St lets opponents grab 32.6% of their own misses (#286). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageN'Western St

Where N'Western St struggles: shooting

N'Western St shoots an effective 48.6% (#301); Lamar allows 50.9% (#153). Expect about 49.5%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseLamar

Lamar's shot-blocking

Lamar ranks #31 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of N'Western St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassN'Western St

N'Western St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.9% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against N'Western St's offense.

N'Western St has the ball

OffenseLamar allowsvs D1 avg

48.6% #301

50.9% #153

-2.5 pt/100

18.3% #288

17.3% #130

-1.5 pt/100

26.1% #321

29.4% #130

-2.1 pt/100

40.1% #58

44.4% #347

+1.0 pt/100

74.0% #135

—

+0.1 pt/100

N'Western St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.0 pts/100

Lamar has the ball

OffenseN'Western St allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #318

53.0% #270

-1.6 pt/100

18.1% #273

16.9% #163

-1.0 pt/100

35.7% #31

32.6% #286

+2.9 pt/100

27.9% #344

36.3% #218

-0.3 pt/100

70.7% #249

—

-0.2 pt/100

Lamar net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western Stoffense vsLamardefense

Share of shots by zone

N'Western St shoots

37.7

9.9

19.1

33.3

Lamar allows

39.6

5.0

17.7

37.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#323	59.0%#189	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.3%#168	32.9%#27	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#64	33.6%#40	38.0%
Three	33.2%#218	35.3%#266	33.7%

Lamaroffense vsN'Western Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Lamar shoots

33.4

7.3

26.1

33.1

N'Western St allows

38.8

8.4

14.8

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.3%#337	60.4%#247	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.1%#77	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#188	41.4%#289	38.0%
Three	32.9%#238	35.5%#278	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N'Western St

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#266 of 365

Off reb %

26.1%

#321

Def reb %

67.4%

#286

Turnover %

18.3%

#288

Forced TO %

16.9%

#163

FT rate

40.1%

#58

FT allowed

36.3%

#218

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Lamar

−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#284 of 365

Off reb %

35.7%

#31

Def reb %

70.6%

#130

Turnover %

18.1%

#273

Forced TO %

17.3%

#130

FT rate

27.9%

#344

FT allowed

44.4%

#347

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−2.4

N'Western St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.9 (#266 of 365) to Lamar’s −2.5 (#284).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Lamar2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Rob Lee Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	31-30	28.2	16.0	3.2	2.0	1.5	53.6%	40.0%	6.0	81.1%	33.5%
0	Cody Pennebaker	G	Sr	6'5"	31-31	27.5	7.1	4.3	2.5	1.3	50.7%	26.5%	1.1	51.9%	18.2%
4	Braden East	F	So	6'9"	30-28	23.9	12.8	9.1	0.7	1.7	54.2%	31.3%	0.5	70.6%	32.7%
10	Errol White	F	Sr	6'7"	31-15	22.3	5.0	4.9	1.2	1.4	47.4%	—	0.0	56.9%	17.4%
3	King-Njhsanni Wilhite	G	Jr	6'1"	29-16	21.0	5.8	1.1	2.5	1.0	43.0%	34.5%	1.9	65.9%	21.2%
11	Eian Lowe	G	Fr	5'10"	30-2	17.9	4.3	1.5	2.5	1.2	43.5%	34.9%	1.4	63.6%	19.3%
32	Janko Bulajic	C	Sr	6'10"	31-2	11.8	1.5	3.1	0.9	0.7	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	10.4%
5	Jayden Gambrell	G	Fr	6'3"	30-1	11.2	4.0	0.8	0.4	0.6	45.3%	32.3%	3.1	71.4%	26.5%
8	B.B. Knight	G	Jr	6'6"	20-0	8.1	2.7	0.6	0.4	0.6	28.7%	13.9%	1.8	95.0%	30.7%
20	Spencer Ezewiro	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	5.7	0.5	1.7	0.3	0.2	30.8%	—	0.0	10.0%	11.4%
2	Jayden Barrs	G	So	6'1"	7-0	11.7	3.1	1.3	1.1	0.7	42.3%	28.6%	1.0	—	21.5%
12	Christian Thomas	PF	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
51	Izuchukwu Emelife	C	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Quinton Sanders	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N'Western St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Micah Thomas	G	Sr	6'0"	32-31	30.2	16.8	2.0	2.7	2.3	48.3%	37.0%	4.2	92.0%	35.1%
11	Chris Mubiru	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	26.8	6.8	3.9	1.9	1.0	50.6%	27.7%	2.9	84.9%	16.2%
0	Izzy Miles	G	Jr	6'2"	32-19	24.4	10.5	2.5	1.3	1.6	49.6%	39.7%	2.3	72.7%	27.8%
23	Willie Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	26-26	29.8	9.8	8.5	1.5	1.4	62.0%	50.0%	0.2	44.4%	19.8%
3	Landyn Jumawan	G	Sr	6'4"	30-20	20.0	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.6	39.6%	27.4%	3.9	77.1%	17.8%
4	CJ Larry	PG	Fr	6'3"	25-16	18.2	2.6	1.4	1.5	1.4	37.7%	46.7%	0.6	53.6%	15.5%
10	Kordrick Turner	F	Jr	6'6"	32-6	13.7	4.2	2.6	0.3	0.5	53.5%	0.0%	0.0	59.7%	18.9%
13	Justin Redmond	G	So	6'2"	23-2	17.1	6.9	1.6	1.3	0.9	44.8%	34.2%	3.3	85.3%	27.6%
1	Chip Brunt	G	Jr	6'5"	29-2	11.7	3.4	1.2	0.8	0.8	58.2%	53.8%	0.4	73.0%	18.3%
25	Omar Adegbola	G	So	6'4"	21-2	14.6	5.4	2.1	0.5	0.8	44.5%	28.1%	1.5	82.5%	24.4%
8	Moustapha Loum	F	So	6'10"	21-4	11.3	2.4	2.0	0.2	0.5	61.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	13.7%
21	J.C. Riley Jr.	C	Sr	6'10"	21-4	11.0	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.4	52.8%	50.0%	0.1	88.2%	18.2%
33	Quentin Bolton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	6.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.5	22.2%	15.4%	1.6	—	26.0%
15	Seth Ned	G	Fr	5'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N'Western St

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

8-4

Road

9-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

4-8

Road

11-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −11.8

Under 5 straightOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	NichollsAdjEM #250	N	L 47–61	+2.0	L−12.0	139.0	U108	79.8	103.5	58.9
Mar 2	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 62–74	+9.0	L−3.0	139.0	U136	96.0	114.6	64.6
Feb 28	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 59–71	+6.0	L−6.0	134.0	U130	97.5	117.4	60.5
Feb 23	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	H	W 54–49	−2.5	W+2.5	138.0	U103	89.9	81.6	60.1
Feb 21	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	H	W 71–53	−2.5	W+15.5	133.5	U124	112.1	83.6	63.4
Feb 16	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 64–75	+14.0	W+3.0	137.5	O139	100.9	118.2	63.5
Feb 14	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 69–66	−1.0	W+2.0	131.0	O135	110.4	105.6	62.5
Feb 9	LamarAdjEM #236	A	W 70–68	+7.5	W+9.5	136.5	O138	106.1	103.1	66.0
Feb 7	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	A	L 48–52	+2.0	L−2.0	141.5	U100	72.1	78.1	66.5
Feb 4	East Texas A&MAdjEM #311	H	L 68–74	−3.0	L−9.0	143.0	U142	107.6	117.1	63.2

Lamar

Against the spread

Season

13-14-2

Home

5-7-1

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.0

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15

Home

6-7

Road

7-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −5.7

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	Hou ChristianAdjEM #297	A	L 53–75	−2.5	L−24.5	134.0	U128	79.4	112.3	66.8
Feb 28	Incarnate WordAdjEM #264	A	L 60–72	+1.0	L−11.0	138.0	U132	94.4	113.3	63.6
Feb 23	NichollsAdjEM #250	H	L 52–53	−3.5	L−4.5	143.5	U105	80.3	81.8	64.8
Feb 21	LSU N OrleansAdjEM #221	H	L 71–77	−5.5	L−11.5	146.5	O148	101.3	109.8	70.1
Feb 16	UT Rio GrandeAdjEM #109	A	L 65–70	+6.0	W+1.0	142.0	U135	108.8	117.1	59.8
Feb 14	Texas A&M-CCAdjEM #181	A	L 63–76	+2.5	L−10.5	136.0	O139	93.7	113.1	67.2
Feb 9	N'Western StAdjEM #299	H	L 68–70	−7.5	L−9.5	136.5	O138	103.1	106.1	66.0
Feb 7	SF AustinAdjEM #73	A	L 74–84	+8.0	L−2.0	139.5	O158	108.7	123.4	68.1
Feb 2	SE LouisianaAdjEM #296	H	W 73–54	−6.0	W+13.0	133.5	U127	120.3	89.0	60.7
Jan 31	McNeeseAdjEM #49	H	L 63–64	+10.5	W+9.5	144.0	U127	109.8	111.6	57.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N'Western StLamar

Efficiency

104.1

105.0

111.3

108.3

66.6

67.0

—

Shooting

48.6%

47.8%

48.0%

47.0%

33.2%

32.9%

74.0%

70.7%

40.1%

27.9%

Ball control & glass

18.3%

18.1%

16.9%

17.3%

26.1%

35.7%

32.6%

29.4%

10.6%

11.4%

9.6%

8.5%

Style

33.9%

40.8%

40.5%

12.4%

14.2%

50.7%

55.4%

36.8%

34.7%

Roster

3.12

2.88

6'4"

6'4.4"

—

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N'Western St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N'Western St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Lamar

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 84.0%

Lost

Andrew Holifield 28.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Christian Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
Quinton Sanders no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Feb 9	2025-26	N'Western St 70 – 68 Lamar
Mon, Dec 29	2025-26	Lamar 76 – 61 N'Western St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.