CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBob Carpenter Center, Newark, DE
Yale
Efficiency #57
2025-26: 24-7 · 12-4 conf
@
Delaware
Efficiency #302
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-14 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 2:00 PM ET
75.2
win 71%
Projected
68.7
win 29%
No line posted yet.
Model: YALE −6.5 · total 143.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware 65.5, Yale 66.6 → 63.8 possessions
−9.8
Delaware offense vs Yale defense
−2.4
Yale offense vs Delaware defense
+7.8
Projected total
143.8
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Delaware offense vs Yale defense
−2.4
Yale offense vs Delaware defense
−7.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Yale by 6.5
6.5
Yale side ◂▸ Delaware side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 63.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Yale is the faster team (65.6, #315 of 365) and Delaware the slower (63.9, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
63.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.8
model
Projected team totals
75.2 / 68.7
Yale / Delaware
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.6#316
Yale
65.5#356
Delaware
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Delaware averages 63.9 possessions per 40, Yale 65.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageDelaware
Where Delaware struggles: the offensive glass
Delaware rebounds 20.8% of its own misses (#362); Yale lets opponents grab 29.7% of their own misses (#147). Expect about 23.4%, 7.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageYale
Where Yale scores: ball control
Yale turns it over on 14.0% of possessions (#22); Delaware forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#334). Expect about 13.4%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashDelaware
Style match: 3-point volume
Delaware takes 46.2% of its shots from three; Yale lets opponents take 45.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.4% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware, Yale) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Yale at about 39.3% of its shots from three, Delaware about 48.4%.
GlassYale
Yale owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Yale's offense.
Yale has the ball
OffenseDelaware allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #26
51.5% #185
+3.7 pt/100
14.0% #22
14.0% #334
+4.1 pt/100
34.2% #62
31.1% #206
+1.8 pt/100
35.1% #172
30.2% #62
-0.4 pt/100
74.6% #100
—
+0.2 pt/100
Yale net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.5 pts/100
Delaware has the ball
OffenseYale allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #89
51.7% #192
+1.9 pt/100
18.2% #285
16.3% #204
-0.6 pt/100
20.8% #362
29.7% #147
-4.3 pt/100
30.6% #291
26.8% #19
-0.9 pt/100
78.6% #10
—
+0.5 pt/100
Delaware net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersYaleoffense vsDelawaredefense
Share of shots by zone
Yale shoots
41.9
5.8
15.6
36.7
Delaware allows
33.6
5.7
17.4
43.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#107 | 59.3%#206 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.7%#28 | 38.0%#136 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.5%#133 | 36.1%#112 | 38.0% |
| Three | 39.4%#3 | 35.1%#255 | 33.7% |
Delawareoffense vsYaledefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware shoots
33.1
6.3
14.6
46.0
Yale allows
35.7
4.5
15.7
44.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.4%#179 | 57.9%#147 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.6%#185 | 35.3%#65 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.0%#144 | 41.0%#277 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.8%#31 | 35.0%#250 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersYale
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#17 of 365
Off reb %
34.2%
#62
Def reb %
70.3%
#147
Turnover %
14.0%
#22
Forced TO %
16.3%
#204
FT rate
35.1%
#172
FT allowed
26.8%
#19
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+2.2
Delaware
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#362
Def reb %
68.9%
#206
Turnover %
18.2%
#285
Forced TO %
14.0%
#334
FT rate
30.6%
#291
FT allowed
30.2%
#62
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Yale has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#17 of 365) to Delaware’s −5.9 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Yale2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Isaac Celiscar | F | So | 6'6" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 62.1% | 40.7% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 22.1% | |
| 11 | Trevor Mullin | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-30 | 27.1 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 52.3% | 38.2% | 5.1 | 89.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | Casey Simmons | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 26.6 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 60.0% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 65.5% | 21.2% | |
| 10 | Samson Aletan | C | Jr | 6'10" | 29-29 | 25.8 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 57.8% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 17.9% | |
| 3 | Jordan Brathwaite | G | So | 6'4" | 31-1 | 19.0 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 56.8% | 44.1% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 20.0% | |
| 9 | Riley Fox | F | So | 6'6" | 31-2 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 37.2% | 3.9 | 80.4% | 30.7% | |
| 44 | Devon Arlington | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-1 | 14.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 42.2% | 34.1% | 1.4 | 59.1% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | Jack Sullivan | F | Fr | 6'11" | 20-0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.1% | 28.0% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 20.7% | |
| 0 | Courtney Wallace | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 67.5% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 20.2% | |
| 12 | Daniel Ogunyemi | F | Fr | 6'7" | 10-0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 64.7% | — | 0.0 | 80.0% | 23.0% | |
| 22 | Jeannot Basima | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 45.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 20.6% | |
| 4 | Alvin Loving | G | Fr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 21.5% | |
| 1 | Jacob Tsai | G | Fr | 5'11" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 29.9% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Delaware2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | Christian Bliss | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 39.8 | 16.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 51.5% | 39.2% | 5.5 | 84.8% | 27.4% | |
| 5 | Macon Emory | F | So | 6'8" | 31-31 | 37.1 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49.8% | 28.5% | 4.9 | 75.4% | 21.0% | |
| 4 | Justyn Fernandez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 28-28 | 37.4 | 16.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 52.9% | 40.3% | 5.7 | 87.8% | 29.6% | |
| 20 | Alex Kazanecki | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-13 | 28.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 57.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 72.2% | 10.9% | |
| 44 | Tyler Houser | F | Sr | 6'9" | 26-26 | 33.3 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 57.4% | 38.3% | 4.1 | 81.7% | 24.6% | |
| 11 | Jayden Taylor | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-10 | 15.3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 61.7% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 61.8% | 12.4% | |
| 15 | Houston Emory | F | Sr | 6'9" | 24-5 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 72.7% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 10.3% | |
| 1 | Mason Ellison | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-1 | 21.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 40.6% | 16.7% | 1.7 | 58.3% | 18.1% | |
| 55 | Jameel Brown | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-4 | 23.5 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 46.9% | 42.1% | 4.8 | 75.0% | 27.8% | |
| 35 | Bouna Kebe | F | Sr | 6'9" | 14-5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 42.5% | 12.5% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 17.4% | |
| 21 | Nnanna Njoku | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 25.0% | |
| 3 | Cavan Reilly | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 26.2% | |
| 10 | Brandon Baffone | G | Jr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 8.4% | |
| 12 | Alex McFadden | G | So | 6'1" | 4-0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 27.4% | |
| 14 | Lance Piper | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Yale2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Isaac Celiscar | F | So | 6'6" | 31-31 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 62.1% | 40.7% | 1.9 | 79.8% | 22.1% | |
| 11 | Trevor Mullin | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-30 | 27.1 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 52.3% | 38.2% | 5.1 | 89.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | Casey Simmons | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 26.6 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 60.0% | 38.3% | 1.5 | 65.5% | 21.2% | |
| 10 | Samson Aletan | C | Jr | 6'10" | 29-29 | 25.8 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 57.8% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 17.9% | |
| 3 | Jordan Brathwaite | G | So | 6'4" | 31-1 | 19.0 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 56.8% | 44.1% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 20.0% | |
| 9 | Riley Fox | F | So | 6'6" | 31-2 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 54.6% | 37.2% | 3.9 | 80.4% | 30.7% | |
| 44 | Devon Arlington | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-1 | 14.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 42.2% | 34.1% | 1.4 | 59.1% | 18.0% | |
| 7 | Jack Sullivan | F | Fr | 6'11" | 20-0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 46.1% | 28.0% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 20.7% | |
| 0 | Courtney Wallace | G | Fr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 67.5% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 100.0% | 20.2% | |
| 12 | Daniel Ogunyemi | F | Fr | 6'7" | 10-0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 64.7% | — | 0.0 | 80.0% | 23.0% | |
| 22 | Jeannot Basima | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 45.0% | 50.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 20.6% | |
| 4 | Alvin Loving | G | Fr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 21.5% | |
| 1 | Jacob Tsai | G | Fr | 5'11" | 3-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 29.9% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Yale
Against the spread
Season
12-17
Home
4-7
Road
5-7
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −1.4
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-14
Home
4-7
Road
7-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −1.8
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 67–68 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 65.1 |
| Mar 15 | Penn | N | L 84–88 OT | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 144.0 | O172 | 116.1 | 121.7 | 72.3 |
| Mar 14 | Cornell | N | W 88–76 | −3.5 | W+8.5 | 163.5 | O164 | 144.9 | 125.2 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Princeton | H | W 78–53 | −14.0 | W+11.0 | 137.0 | U131 | 117.2 | 79.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 28 | Columbia | A | W 60–54 | −6.5 | L−0.5 | 146.0 | U114 | 98.9 | 89.0 | 60.7 |
| Feb 27 | Cornell | A | L 69–72 | −4.0 | L−7.0 | 164.0 | U141 | 107.4 | 112.1 | 64.3 |
| Feb 21 | Penn | H | W 74–70 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 149.5 | U144 | 111.1 | 105.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Harvard | A | W 76–75 OT | −5.5 | L−4.5 | 139.5 | O151 | 115.8 | 114.2 | 65.7 |
| Feb 13 | Dartmouth | A | W 83–70 | −10.0 | W+3.0 | 151.5 | O153 | 121.5 | 102.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 9 | Howard | A | W 87–81 OT | −7.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | O168 | 120.7 | 112.4 | 72.1 |
Delaware
Against the spread
Season
14-15-1
Home
6-7-1
Road
7-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +0.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
10-4
Road
6-8
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +13.9
Under in the last gameOver in 8 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Louisiana Tech | H | L 38–81 | +2.0 | L−41.0 | 132.5 | U119 | 60.3 | 128.5 | 63.0 |
| Mar 5 | Sam Houston | H | W 83–80 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O163 | 116.7 | 112.4 | 71.2 |
| Feb 28 | Kennesaw St | A | L 82–90 | +12.0 | W+4.0 | 143.0 | O172 | 117.9 | 129.4 | 69.5 |
| Feb 26 | Jax State | A | L 70–80 OT | +7.5 | L−2.5 | 134.0 | O150 | 104.8 | 119.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | MTSU | A | L 66–78 | +10.0 | L−2.0 | 137.5 | O144 | 106.5 | 125.8 | 62.0 |
| Feb 18 | Western KY | H | L 87–88 OT | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | O175 | 125.3 | 126.7 | 69.4 |
| Feb 14 | Missouri St | A | W 76–67 | +8.5 | W+17.5 | 135.0 | O143 | 121.0 | 106.7 | 62.8 |
| Feb 12 | FIU | A | W 68–66 | +8.5 | W+10.5 | 146.5 | U134 | 101.9 | 98.9 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | MTSU | H | W 89–88 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 133.5 | O177 | 129.9 | 128.5 | 68.5 |
| Feb 4 | Liberty | H | L 69–75 | +10.0 | W+4.0 | 132.0 | O144 | 110.6 | 120.2 | 62.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeYaleDelaware
Efficiency
116.5
105.2
108.1
112.6
66.6
65.5
—
—
Shooting
55.6%
53.3%
53.6%
51.7%
39.4%
36.8%
74.6%
78.6%
35.1%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
14.0%
18.2%
16.3%
14.0%
34.2%
20.8%
29.7%
31.1%
7.7%
11.4%
9.1%
10.4%
Style
36.1%
46.2%
44.4%
36.8%
9.8%
6.9%
56.0%
52.3%
29.0%
15.7%
Roster
2.73
2.72
6'5.5"
6'6.4"
84.0%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputYale
Returning minutes: 84.0%Returning production: 79.7%
Lost
- Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Delaware
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.