CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameRamsey Center, Cullowhee, NC

The Citadel

Efficiency #348

2025-26: 11-22 · 8-12 conf

W Carolina

Efficiency #217

2025-26: 15-16 · 11-9 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

68.4

win 16%

Projected

79.8

win 84%

No line posted yet.

Model: WCU −11.3 · total 148.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: W Carolina 68.7, The Citadel 66.2 → 66.6 possessions

−3.7

W Carolina offense vs The Citadel defense

+5.6

The Citadel offense vs W Carolina defense

−1.9

Projected total

148.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

W Carolina offense vs The Citadel defense

+5.6

The Citadel offense vs W Carolina defense

+1.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

W Carolina by 11.3

11.3

The Citadel side ◂▸ W Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help W Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, W Carolina is the faster team (68.7, #164 of 365) and The Citadel the slower (64.7, #335). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.2

model

Projected team totals

68.4 / 79.8

The Citadel / W Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.2#333

The Citadel

68.7#147

W Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageW Carolina

Where W Carolina scores: shooting

W Carolina shoots an effective 50.4% (#218); The Citadel allows 57.5% (#361). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashThe Citadel

Style match: 3-point volume

The Citadel takes 47.8% of its shots from three; W Carolina lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.9% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

W Carolina averages 68.7 possessions per 40, The Citadel 64.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassW Carolina

W Carolina owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.4% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for W Carolina's offense.

AdvantageThe Citadel

Where The Citadel struggles: the offensive glass

The Citadel rebounds 27.9% of its own misses (#270); W Carolina lets opponents grab 26.3% of their own misses (#22). Expect about 26.7%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversThe Citadel

The Citadel protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for The Citadel's offense.

The Citadel has the ball

OffenseW Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #265

54.9% #327

+1.2 pt/100

16.3% #157

14.5% #319

+2.1 pt/100

27.9% #270

26.3% #22

-2.3 pt/100

30.0% #309

37.8% #255

-0.1 pt/100

66.5% #349

—

-0.5 pt/100

The Citadel net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

W Carolina has the ball

OffenseThe Citadel allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #218

57.5% #361

+3.9 pt/100

16.8% #184

14.7% #307

+1.6 pt/100

35.4% #36

31.5% #227

+2.4 pt/100

31.3% #274

33.3% #136

-0.4 pt/100

71.4% #229

—

-0.1 pt/100

W Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

The Citadeloffense vsW Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

The Citadel shoots

34.0

7.3

11.4

47.3

W Carolina allows

36.6

4.8

15.6

43.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#147	61.6%#291	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.4%#167	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.0%#186	41.9%#296	38.0%
Three	32.0%#283	36.7%#337	33.7%

W Carolinaoffense vsThe Citadeldefense

Share of shots by zone

W Carolina shoots

37.7

5.2

15.7

41.5

The Citadel allows

40.5

3.7

11.3

44.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#330	65.8%#355	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.5%#112	42.1%#233	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#106	43.4%#334	38.0%
Three	33.5%#198	36.6%#335	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

The Citadel

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#299 of 365

Off reb %

27.9%

#270

Def reb %

68.5%

#227

Turnover %

16.3%

#157

Forced TO %

14.7%

#307

FT rate

30.0%

#309

FT allowed

33.3%

#136

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.8

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.5

W Carolina

−0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#182 of 365

Off reb %

35.4%

#36

Def reb %

73.7%

#22

Turnover %

16.8%

#184

Forced TO %

14.5%

#319

FT rate

31.3%

#274

FT allowed

37.8%

#255

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+1.4

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.5

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.7

W Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.1 (#182 of 365) to The Citadel’s −2.9 (#299).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

The Citadel2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted The Citadel's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Braxton Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-24	29.3	14.6	3.2	1.6	1.8	49.5%	34.2%	7.0	77.7%	32.8%
8	Sola Adebisi	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	32.2	10.0	5.8	1.5	1.4	63.8%	33.3%	1.6	67.1%	17.3%
14	Carter Kingsbury	G	Jr	6'5"	31-30	29.1	8.0	3.9	2.2	1.5	50.2%	29.0%	3.0	74.4%	19.1%
5	Eze Wali	G	So	6'1"	33-32	25.3	5.7	3.5	2.3	1.2	42.1%	28.7%	2.4	67.8%	18.1%
1	Christian Moore	F	So	6'6"	31-23	25.0	11.2	3.1	1.0	1.0	54.1%	38.7%	5.3	67.2%	27.1%
4	Logan Applegate	G	Sr	6'2"	33-3	15.7	6.5	2.2	1.0	0.5	50.0%	31.8%	4.7	77.8%	25.7%
22	Keynan Davis	G	Jr	6'5"	32-8	12.7	4.8	1.4	0.9	0.5	44.7%	26.5%	2.6	60.3%	26.2%
3	Marcos Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	28-0	13.2	4.5	1.7	1.6	1.4	46.8%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	27.1%
11	Dante Kearse	F	So	6'4"	33-0	10.9	3.6	1.8	0.6	0.4	58.4%	41.5%	1.6	60.0%	19.3%
23	Simeon German	F	Sr	6'10"	28-15	10.1	1.8	2.7	0.3	0.4	43.6%	—	0.0	16.7%	16.3%
7	Gabe Hernandez	G	Jr	5'11"	18-0	8.1	2.1	0.5	0.7	0.4	40.5%	18.2%	0.6	80.0%	20.5%
25	Cassius Bonjasky	F	Jr	6'7"	18-0	6.3	2.3	1.4	0.1	0.2	60.7%	33.3%	0.3	70.0%	19.5%
15	Chase Williams	F	Fr	6'8"	8-0	3.9	0.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	8.6%
30	Logan Menefee	F	Fr	6'10"	6-0	3.7	0.7	1.2	0.0	0.3	22.2%	—	0.0	—	29.2%
24	Rowan Irelan	G	So	6'3"	4-0	3.3	2.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	64.3%	42.9%	1.8	—	35.2%
2	Jameson Heck	G	Fr	5'7"	4-0	2.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	25.2%
12	Aidan Alexander	F	Fr	6'4"	4-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	34.9%
13	Jack Walter	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	29.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

W Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Marcus Kell	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	13.6	4.8	0.9	1.1	51.0%	29.7%	4.7	69.0%	27.1%
3	Julien Soumaoro	G	Sr	5'11"	27-23	26.1	11.6	3.1	2.2	1.7	54.4%	39.8%	6.0	76.9%	26.4%
22	Tidjiane Dioumassi	G	Sr	6'4"	29-24	24.2	8.9	2.7	2.7	1.7	49.3%	36.4%	2.3	72.5%	25.0%
8	Tahlan Pettway	G	Fr	6'2"	30-10	22.0	8.5	2.2	2.3	1.3	55.4%	39.4%	4.2	76.2%	22.9%
12	Samuel Dada	F	Fr	6'9"	31-12	20.3	6.6	7.6	0.7	0.7	69.0%	0.0%	0.0	78.9%	15.4%
7	Abdulai Fanta Kabba	C	So	7'0"	29-19	17.3	4.7	5.8	0.4	0.9	67.4%	—	0.0	32.4%	15.7%
4	Justin Johnson	G	So	6'8"	30-3	15.6	6.7	2.5	0.9	0.9	44.0%	22.7%	1.5	63.5%	29.2%
2	CJ Hyland	G	So	6'1"	20-4	14.6	6.2	1.1	1.1	1.2	49.5%	42.1%	1.9	81.6%	26.2%
21	Tayeshaun Smith	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	9.7	1.5	1.7	0.2	0.4	43.6%	16.7%	0.4	78.6%	11.4%
20	Fischer Brown	G	So	6'4"	10-0	9.6	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.3	45.8%	13.3%	1.5	—	15.1%
1	Chase McKey	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	9.3	2.0	1.8	0.3	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	10.0%
33	Vernon Collins	F	Sr	6'10"	5-0	6.0	1.2	2.8	0.2	0.2	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	13.0%
11	Drew Hollifield	G	Fr	5'11"	6-0	2.5	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	28.6%	1.2	50.0%	55.4%
17	Max Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	2.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%
5	Titian DeRosa	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

The Citadel2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted The Citadel's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Braxton Williams	F	Sr	6'6"	33-24	29.3	14.6	3.2	1.6	1.8	49.5%	34.2%	7.0	77.7%	32.8%
8	Sola Adebisi	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	32.2	10.0	5.8	1.5	1.4	63.8%	33.3%	1.6	67.1%	17.3%
14	Carter Kingsbury	G	Jr	6'5"	31-30	29.1	8.0	3.9	2.2	1.5	50.2%	29.0%	3.0	74.4%	19.1%
5	Eze Wali	G	So	6'1"	33-32	25.3	5.7	3.5	2.3	1.2	42.1%	28.7%	2.4	67.8%	18.1%
1	Christian Moore	F	So	6'6"	31-23	25.0	11.2	3.1	1.0	1.0	54.1%	38.7%	5.3	67.2%	27.1%
4	Logan Applegate	G	Sr	6'2"	33-3	15.7	6.5	2.2	1.0	0.5	50.0%	31.8%	4.7	77.8%	25.7%
22	Keynan Davis	G	Jr	6'5"	32-8	12.7	4.8	1.4	0.9	0.5	44.7%	26.5%	2.6	60.3%	26.2%
3	Marcos Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	28-0	13.2	4.5	1.7	1.6	1.4	46.8%	28.6%	0.8	61.9%	27.1%
11	Dante Kearse	F	So	6'4"	33-0	10.9	3.6	1.8	0.6	0.4	58.4%	41.5%	1.6	60.0%	19.3%
23	Simeon German	F	Sr	6'10"	28-15	10.1	1.8	2.7	0.3	0.4	43.6%	—	0.0	16.7%	16.3%
7	Gabe Hernandez	G	Jr	5'11"	18-0	8.1	2.1	0.5	0.7	0.4	40.5%	18.2%	0.6	80.0%	20.5%
25	Cassius Bonjasky	F	Jr	6'7"	18-0	6.3	2.3	1.4	0.1	0.2	60.7%	33.3%	0.3	70.0%	19.5%
15	Chase Williams	F	Fr	6'8"	8-0	3.9	0.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	8.6%
30	Logan Menefee	F	Fr	6'10"	6-0	3.7	0.7	1.2	0.0	0.3	22.2%	—	0.0	—	29.2%
24	Rowan Irelan	G	So	6'3"	4-0	3.3	2.3	0.8	0.0	0.3	64.3%	42.9%	1.8	—	35.2%
2	Jameson Heck	G	Fr	5'7"	4-0	2.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	25.2%
12	Aidan Alexander	F	Fr	6'4"	4-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	34.9%
13	Jack Walter	G	Fr	6'2"	2-0	2.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.5	—	29.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

The Citadel

Against the spread

Season

15-15

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.2

Covered 3 straightCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14-1

Home

6-5-1

Road

7-8

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.0

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	ETSUAdjEM #110	N	L 76–83	+15.0	W+8.0	139.0	O159	116.9	127.7	65.0
Mar 6	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	N	W 88–85	+7.5	W+10.5	147.5	O173	138.7	133.9	63.5
Feb 28	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	W 93–90 OT	+12.0	W+15.0	148.0	O183	126.1	122.1	73.7
Feb 25	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	L 51–72	+15.5	L−5.5	143.5	U123	85.2	120.3	59.8
Feb 21	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	H	L 72–93	+4.0	L−17.0	144.0	O165	99.8	128.9	72.1
Feb 19	SamfordAdjEM #202	H	L 75–78	+10.5	W+7.5	144.0	O153	105.8	110.0	70.9
Feb 14	MercerAdjEM #161	H	L 54–70	+12.0	L−4.0	147.5	U124	87.6	113.6	61.6
Feb 11	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	A	L 49–87	+9.5	L−28.5	146.5	U136	78.5	139.3	62.4
Feb 7	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 78–71	+9.5	W+16.5	141.0	O149	114.7	104.4	68.0
Feb 5	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 64–78	+13.5	L−0.5	146.0	U142	98.9	120.5	64.7

W Carolina

Against the spread

Season

15-14

Home

7-4

Road

6-10

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.5

Covered 8 straightCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13

Home

5-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −2.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	ETSUAdjEM #110	N	L 67–69	+3.0	W+1.0	146.0	U136	102.4	105.5	65.4
Mar 7	MercerAdjEM #161	N	W 77–73	+2.0	W+6.0	154.0	U150	114.5	108.5	67.3
Feb 28	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	W 86–67	+2.0	W+21.0	148.0	O153	135.3	105.4	63.6
Feb 25	MercerAdjEM #161	H	W 78–74	+1.0	W+5.0	157.0	U152	113.6	107.8	68.6
Feb 21	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 81–62	−9.0	W+10.0	155.0	U143	128.3	98.2	63.2
Feb 18	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	H	W 91–77	−6.0	W+8.0	155.0	O168	129.1	109.3	70.5
Feb 14	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	W 81–76	+2.0	W+7.0	151.5	O157	117.6	110.4	68.9
Feb 11	The CitadelAdjEM #348	H	W 87–49	−9.5	W+28.5	146.5	U136	139.3	78.5	62.4
Feb 7	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 66–77	+4.0	L−7.0	154.0	U143	96.0	112.0	68.7
Feb 4	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 78–81	−1.5	L−4.5	154.5	O159	116.6	121.1	66.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

The CitadelW Carolina

Efficiency

102.8

109.3

116.1

111.3

66.2

68.7

—

Shooting

49.5%

50.4%

51.0%

50.6%

32.0%

33.5%

66.5%

71.4%

30.0%

31.3%

Ball control & glass

16.3%

16.8%

14.7%

14.5%

27.9%

35.4%

31.5%

26.3%

9.6%

8.9%

10.7%

7.7%

Style

47.8%

40.9%

40.6%

41.2%

10.3%

9.6%

50.6%

44.3%

33.7%

33.4%

Roster

2.98

2.42

6'4.8"

6'5.5"

—

85.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

The Citadel

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted The Citadel's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

W Carolina

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 86.9%

Lost

Cord Stansberry 29.1 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Titian DeRosa no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Feb 11	2025-26	The Citadel 49 – 87 W Carolina
Sat, Jan 10	2025-26	W Carolina 77 – 79 The Citadel

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.