CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameCalihan Hall, Detroit, MI

N Kentucky

Efficiency #164

2025-26: 20-14 · 12-11 conf

Detroit Mercy

Efficiency #224

2025-26: 17-15 · 14-9 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

77.1

win 44%

Projected

78.8

win 56%

No line posted yet.

Model: DETM −1.7 · total 155.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Detroit Mercy 69.2, N Kentucky 70.0 → 70.9 possessions

+5.7

Detroit Mercy offense vs N Kentucky defense

−0.2

N Kentucky offense vs Detroit Mercy defense

+2.2

Projected total

155.9

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Detroit Mercy offense vs N Kentucky defense

−0.2

N Kentucky offense vs Detroit Mercy defense

−2.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Detroit Mercy by 1.7

1.7

N Kentucky side ◂▸ Detroit Mercy side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Detroit Mercy.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Kentucky is the faster team (70.9, #58 of 365) and Detroit Mercy the slower (69.7, #103). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.9

model

Projected team totals

77.1 / 78.8

N Kentucky / Detroit Mercy

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.0#49

N Kentucky

69.2#106

Detroit Mercy

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

Detroit Mercy averages 69.7 possessions per 40, N Kentucky 70.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageN Kentucky

Where N Kentucky scores: shooting

N Kentucky shoots an effective 53.2% (#93); Detroit Mercy allows 52.2% (#223). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversN Kentucky

N Kentucky protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for N Kentucky's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (N Kentucky's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect N Kentucky at about 45.8% of its shots from three, Detroit Mercy about 31.6%.

AdvantageDetroit Mercy

Where Detroit Mercy scores: the offensive glass

Detroit Mercy rebounds 33.3% of its own misses (#81); N Kentucky lets opponents grab 31.6% of their own misses (#236). Expect about 33.0%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseN Kentucky

N Kentucky's ball-hawking

N Kentucky ranks #30 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 10.7% of Detroit Mercy's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

N Kentucky has the ball

OffenseDetroit Mercy allowsvs D1 avg

53.2% #93

52.2% #223

+2.2 pt/100

16.3% #156

14.4% #324

+2.2 pt/100

32.2% #117

30.8% #193

+0.9 pt/100

35.9% #158

37.6% #254

+0.2 pt/100

72.1% #208

—

-0.0 pt/100

N Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100

Detroit Mercy has the ball

OffenseN Kentucky allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #267

54.2% #305

+0.7 pt/100

16.0% #143

18.6% #68

-0.9 pt/100

33.3% #81

31.6% #236

+1.6 pt/100

32.6% #247

37.2% #245

+0.0 pt/100

78.9% #4

—

+0.6 pt/100

Detroit Mercy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

N Kentuckyoffense vsDetroit Mercydefense

Share of shots by zone

N Kentucky shoots

41.8

5.2

8.3

44.6

Detroit Mercy allows

41.5

5.1

11.5

41.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#102	59.0%#191	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.0%#104	46.4%#325	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#264	34.4%#59	38.0%
Three	33.6%#193	33.3%#140	33.7%

Detroit Mercyoffense vsN Kentuckydefense

Share of shots by zone

Detroit Mercy shoots

33.5

7.0

29.5

30.1

N Kentucky allows

42.4

7.5

12.3

37.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.2%#294	58.4%#159	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#157	45.6%#317	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#96	38.8%#196	38.0%
Three	35.1%#108	36.6%#333	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

N Kentucky

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#116 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#117

Def reb %

68.4%

#236

Turnover %

16.3%

#156

Forced TO %

18.6%

#68

FT rate

35.9%

#158

FT allowed

37.2%

#245

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Detroit Mercy

−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#254 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#81

Def reb %

69.2%

#193

Turnover %

16.0%

#143

Forced TO %

14.4%

#324

FT rate

32.6%

#247

FT allowed

37.6%

#254

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.6

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.6

N Kentucky has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.6 (#116 of 365) to Detroit Mercy’s −1.4 (#254).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

N Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dan Gherezgher	G	Sr	6'4"	34-29	29.5	15.9	3.2	2.7	2.3	53.4%	37.4%	7.7	73.4%	31.4%
8	Donovan Oday	G	Sr	6'2"	34-16	29.0	18.6	3.8	1.9	2.1	56.9%	33.0%	5.3	81.0%	32.7%
11	Tae Dozier	G	Sr	6'5"	34-29	28.9	8.6	5.2	2.3	0.9	58.2%	33.3%	3.5	66.7%	15.9%
6	Ethan Elliott	G	Fr	6'3"	32-31	28.5	5.1	2.8	4.6	1.4	39.2%	25.6%	2.6	48.6%	15.1%
24	Kael Robinson	F	Sr	6'7"	31-29	26.3	14.4	4.5	1.3	1.5	56.0%	39.2%	5.8	82.0%	28.8%
10	Donovan Rakotonanahary	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	12.3	3.0	2.3	0.4	0.3	71.1%	33.3%	0.1	55.6%	11.3%
3	Shawn Nelson	G	Sr	6'3"	27-2	11.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.8	38.8%	17.6%	1.3	53.3%	20.9%
4	Bryce Darbyshire	G	So	6'4"	25-0	6.8	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	58.3%	38.9%	0.7	33.3%	13.0%
1	Ryan Tolliver	G	Fr	6'7"	22-1	6.7	1.0	1.7	0.3	0.4	47.1%	0.0%	0.1	77.8%	10.7%
12	Addison Archer	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	6.2	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	43.3%	50.0%	0.1	70.0%	11.4%
26	Mitchel Minor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	116.7%	100.0%	0.3	—	33.1%
22	JJ Apathjang	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Juanma Ruiz	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Detroit Mercy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Orlando Lovejoy	G	Sr	6'3"	31-31	31.0	15.8	3.6	3.7	2.0	45.1%	14.8%	0.9	89.2%	31.3%
33	TJ Nadeau	G	So	6'5"	31-31	26.5	13.8	3.2	1.0	0.9	60.9%	46.7%	4.8	86.3%	25.2%
1	Tyler Spratt	G	Fr	6'5"	32-28	24.8	9.9	3.6	1.5	0.9	52.2%	38.5%	4.5	78.1%	22.6%
23	Legend Geeter	F	Sr	6'8"	29-25	25.6	8.3	6.4	2.3	1.6	51.1%	29.4%	1.2	69.0%	20.5%
11	Lance Stone	G	Fr	5'8"	32-1	20.8	6.8	1.3	2.0	1.2	41.0%	33.0%	3.1	87.3%	22.9%
30	Ryan Kalambay	F	So	6'9"	31-18	20.6	4.2	5.5	0.5	0.6	57.5%	—	0.0	71.4%	11.5%
20	London Maiden	F	Jr	6'8"	31-9	15.5	6.3	3.0	0.4	1.1	54.5%	—	0.0	64.3%	24.5%
10	Nate Johnson	G	So	6'7"	26-4	10.3	2.8	1.9	0.4	0.5	34.2%	16.7%	0.9	58.1%	22.2%
13	Jared Lary	G	Sr	6'6"	26-0	9.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	35.7%	24.0%	1.0	73.3%	21.5%
4	Keshawn Fisher	G	Fr	6'7"	20-1	11.4	5.5	2.2	0.8	1.1	49.0%	27.5%	2.0	82.4%	31.0%
2	Je'kel Cotton	G	Fr	6'6"	27-0	7.4	2.3	2.5	0.1	0.2	44.4%	29.3%	1.5	50.0%	20.5%
7	Ayden Carter	G	Jr	6'5"	9-5	20.6	12.2	4.3	1.2	2.0	57.7%	22.2%	2.0	76.9%	32.5%
6	Xavier Istomin-Monroe	C	Fr	7'1"	19-7	8.3	1.8	1.7	0.1	0.6	55.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.5%
25	Zak Abdalla	G	Fr	6'2"	3-0	2.3	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Kentucky2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Dan Gherezgher	G	Sr	6'4"	34-29	29.5	15.9	3.2	2.7	2.3	53.4%	37.4%	7.7	73.4%	31.4%
8	Donovan Oday	G	Sr	6'2"	34-16	29.0	18.6	3.8	1.9	2.1	56.9%	33.0%	5.3	81.0%	32.7%
11	Tae Dozier	G	Sr	6'5"	34-29	28.9	8.6	5.2	2.3	0.9	58.2%	33.3%	3.5	66.7%	15.9%
6	Ethan Elliott	G	Fr	6'3"	32-31	28.5	5.1	2.8	4.6	1.4	39.2%	25.6%	2.6	48.6%	15.1%
24	Kael Robinson	F	Sr	6'7"	31-29	26.3	14.4	4.5	1.3	1.5	56.0%	39.2%	5.8	82.0%	28.8%
10	Donovan Rakotonanahary	G	Fr	6'6"	32-0	12.3	3.0	2.3	0.4	0.3	71.1%	33.3%	0.1	55.6%	11.3%
3	Shawn Nelson	G	Sr	6'3"	27-2	11.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	0.8	38.8%	17.6%	1.3	53.3%	20.9%
4	Bryce Darbyshire	G	So	6'4"	25-0	6.8	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.3	58.3%	38.9%	0.7	33.3%	13.0%
1	Ryan Tolliver	G	Fr	6'7"	22-1	6.7	1.0	1.7	0.3	0.4	47.1%	0.0%	0.1	77.8%	10.7%
12	Addison Archer	F	Jr	6'9"	20-0	6.2	1.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	43.3%	50.0%	0.1	70.0%	11.4%
26	Mitchel Minor	G	Sr	5'10"	4-0	1.5	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	116.7%	100.0%	0.3	—	33.1%
22	JJ Apathjang	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Juanma Ruiz	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

N Kentucky

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

7-7

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

21-10

Home

9-5

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.9

Over 4 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Wright StAdjEM #119	N	L 90–103	+1.0	L−12.0	158.0	O193	114.7	131.3	78.5
Mar 8	Green BayAdjEM #222	N	W 96–76	−4.0	W+16.0	147.5	O172	145.5	115.2	66.0
Mar 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 85–84	+2.0	W+3.0	162.5	O169	116.5	115.1	73.0
Feb 28	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 91–92	−3.0	L−4.0	152.5	O183	130.0	131.4	70.0
Feb 25	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 81–70	−8.0	W+3.0	165.5	U151	112.2	97.0	72.2
Feb 22	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 58–64	+2.0	L−4.0	152.5	U122	78.4	86.5	73.9
Feb 18	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 87–71	−6.0	W+10.0	154.0	O158	122.1	99.7	71.2
Feb 12	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 84–81	−6.0	L−3.0	164.5	O165	118.8	114.6	70.7
Feb 7	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 67–62	−7.0	L−2.0	156.5	U129	107.1	99.1	62.6
Feb 4	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	L 84–87 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	150.5	O171	111.3	115.3	75.5

Detroit Mercy

Against the spread

Season

21-9

Home

8-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.7

Covered 4 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16

Home

7-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −3.0

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Wright StAdjEM #119	N	L 63–66	+5.0	W+2.0	153.5	U129	92.4	96.8	68.2
Mar 9	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	N	W 70–64	+4.0	W+10.0	146.5	U134	111.1	101.5	63.0
Mar 4	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 84–63	−1.0	W+20.0	151.5	U147	124.9	93.7	67.2
Feb 28	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 95–89	+8.0	W+14.0	161.5	O184	131.7	123.4	72.1
Feb 25	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 62–73	+8.0	L−3.0	150.5	U135	97.5	114.8	63.6
Feb 22	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	W 74–70	−1.0	W+3.0	147.5	U144	107.2	101.4	69.0
Feb 20	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 91–86	+1.0	W+6.0	153.0	O177	129.7	122.5	70.2
Feb 15	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 76–70	+3.0	W+9.0	150.5	U146	106.3	97.9	71.5
Feb 12	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	W 77–74	+11.5	W+14.5	153.0	U151	116.4	111.9	66.2
Feb 7	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–76	+4.0	L−9.0	148.0	U139	94.7	114.3	66.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

N KentuckyDetroit Mercy

Efficiency

109.4

107.9

108.8

110.6

70.0

69.2

—

Shooting

53.2%

49.5%

55.5%

48.1%

33.6%

35.1%

72.1%

78.9%

35.9%

32.6%

Ball control & glass

16.3%

16.0%

18.6%

14.4%

32.2%

33.3%

31.6%

30.8%

8.8%

8.9%

7.7%

7.9%

Style

44.9%

30.7%

44.6%

41.3%

20.1%

14.9%

55.5%

48.5%

27.3%

35.6%

Roster

3.18

2.40

6'4.3"

6'5.2"

85.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

N Kentucky

Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 81.3%

Lost

LJ Wells 29.4 mpg, 14.5 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Juanma Ruiz no D1 minutes last season
JJ Apathjang no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Detroit Mercy

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Jan 30	2025-26	N Kentucky 77 – 90 Detroit Mercy
Thu, Jan 15	2025-26	Detroit Mercy 71 – 96 N Kentucky

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.