CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHope Coliseum, Morgantown, WV

Virginia Tech

Efficiency #61

2025-26: 19-13 · 8-11 conf

West Virginia

Efficiency #58

2025-26: 21-14 · 9-10 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

67.0

win 36%

Projected

71.1

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: WVU −4.1 · total 138.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: West Virginia 65.2, Virginia Tech 68.2 → 65.1 possessions

−7.0

West Virginia offense vs Virginia Tech defense

−1.4

Virginia Tech offense vs West Virginia defense

−1.7

Projected total

138.1

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

West Virginia offense vs Virginia Tech defense

−1.4

Virginia Tech offense vs West Virginia defense

+1.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

West Virginia by 4.1

4.1

Virginia Tech side ◂▸ West Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.0 against +4.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Virginia Tech is the faster team (68.0, #201 of 365) and West Virginia the slower (64.1, #353). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

138.1

model

Projected team totals

67.0 / 71.1

Virginia Tech / West Virginia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.2#191

Virginia Tech

65.2#361

West Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

West Virginia averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Virginia Tech 68.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia Tech's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Virginia Tech at about 38.9% of its shots from three, West Virginia about 42.3%.

Virginia Tech has the ball

OffenseWest Virginia allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #134

48.5% #50

-1.2 pt/100

14.9% #61

17.8% #108

+0.5 pt/100

31.9% #129

28.6% #86

+0.1 pt/100

34.0% #209

29.3% #47

-0.5 pt/100

74.3% #116

—

+0.2 pt/100

Virginia Tech net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

West Virginia has the ball

OffenseVirginia Tech allowsvs D1 avg

51.6% #166

50.8% #147

-0.1 pt/100

16.8% #188

17.2% #133

-0.4 pt/100

30.5% #178

32.6% #284

+0.7 pt/100

35.1% #173

28.8% #41

-0.5 pt/100

68.3% #319

—

-0.4 pt/100

West Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Virginia Techoffense vsWest Virginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Virginia Tech shoots

35.1

6.7

18.3

39.9

West Virginia allows

37.1

4.8

19.5

38.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.6%#59	55.2%#66	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.3%#95	36.8%#106	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.4%#339	32.2%#18	38.0%
Three	35.5%#88	34.3%#201	33.7%

West Virginiaoffense vsVirginia Techdefense

Share of shots by zone

West Virginia shoots

38.5

4.6

13.3

43.6

Virginia Tech allows

38.1

5.5

16.6

39.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#150	61.0%#269	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.1%#348	41.4%#222	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	42.1%#307	38.0%
Three	33.1%#227	30.6%#26	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Virginia Tech

+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#129

Def reb %

67.4%

#284

Turnover %

14.9%

#61

Forced TO %

17.2%

#133

FT rate

34.0%

#209

FT allowed

28.8%

#41

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding−0.6

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+0.4

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+1.7

West Virginia

+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#54 of 365

Off reb %

30.5%

#178

Def reb %

71.4%

#86

Turnover %

16.8%

#188

Forced TO %

17.8%

#108

FT rate

35.1%

#173

FT allowed

29.3%

#47

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Both teams carry the same grade, +2.9 extra scoring chances per game.

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Virginia Tech2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Ben Hammond	G	So	5'11"	32-18	31.5	13.2	2.3	3.2	1.4	51.0%	43.1%	3.2	86.5%	24.3%
13	Amani Hansberry	F	Jr	6'8"	30-30	30.7	14.3	7.4	2.4	2.1	54.5%	35.4%	3.2	73.6%	27.8%
0	Jailen Bedford	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	26.0	11.3	3.3	1.3	1.1	48.3%	35.9%	4.7	72.6%	27.8%
2	Jaden Schutt	G	Jr	6'5"	32-5	24.8	7.7	1.6	0.9	0.4	54.4%	38.5%	5.3	86.2%	17.0%
32	Christian Gurdak	C	Fr	6'10"	31-10	17.1	5.6	4.4	0.3	0.6	63.2%	—	0.0	69.6%	16.8%
10	Tyler Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-13	26.2	8.0	4.5	1.6	0.7	62.5%	41.5%	2.4	67.7%	15.5%
77	Antonio Dorn	C	Fr	7'0"	24-5	8.5	2.6	1.8	0.4	0.5	64.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	17.8%
4	Izaiah Pasha	G	So	6'5"	18-0	8.2	2.0	0.8	0.7	0.6	36.3%	14.3%	0.4	53.8%	23.1%
5	Sin'Cere Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	11-0	6.5	0.6	1.4	0.0	0.1	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	33.3%	11.5%
7	Brett Freeman	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Solomon Davis	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

West Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Honor Huff	G	Sr	5'10"	35-35	35.9	16.5	2.3	2.1	1.7	50.0%	35.4%	9.7	86.9%	28.2%
0	Brenen Lorient	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	29.4	11.9	5.2	1.9	1.9	58.0%	35.8%	2.0	70.4%	25.1%
1	Jasper Floyd	G	Sr	6'3"	35-35	28.3	7.0	3.8	3.2	1.9	52.9%	37.7%	1.7	70.0%	17.9%
55	Harlan Obioha	C	Sr	7'0"	35-35	19.9	5.1	4.6	0.8	0.9	52.9%	25.0%	0.1	56.7%	17.3%
13	Chance Moore	G	Sr	6'6"	29-1	22.3	10.6	5.8	0.8	1.3	55.2%	28.1%	1.1	56.3%	29.9%
5	DJ Thomas	F	Fr	6'7"	35-0	16.8	6.6	2.1	0.6	0.7	55.1%	26.9%	2.2	62.5%	24.5%
2	Amir Jenkins	G	Fr	6'2"	32-0	16.0	3.4	2.1	2.0	0.7	37.3%	28.6%	0.9	53.8%	19.2%
23	Morris Ugusuk	G	Jr	6'4"	24-0	11.3	1.4	1.5	0.2	0.1	31.8%	17.1%	1.5	55.6%	11.3%
4	Jayden Forsythe	G	Fr	6'5"	5-0	4.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	1.4	—	22.2%
21	Niyol Hauet	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	11.6%
8	Abraham Oyeadier	C	Fr	6'9"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
7	Evans Barning Jr.	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	MJ Feenane	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Virginia Tech2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Ben Hammond	G	So	5'11"	32-18	31.5	13.2	2.3	3.2	1.4	51.0%	43.1%	3.2	86.5%	24.3%
13	Amani Hansberry	F	Jr	6'8"	30-30	30.7	14.3	7.4	2.4	2.1	54.5%	35.4%	3.2	73.6%	27.8%
0	Jailen Bedford	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	26.0	11.3	3.3	1.3	1.1	48.3%	35.9%	4.7	72.6%	27.8%
2	Jaden Schutt	G	Jr	6'5"	32-5	24.8	7.7	1.6	0.9	0.4	54.4%	38.5%	5.3	86.2%	17.0%
32	Christian Gurdak	C	Fr	6'10"	31-10	17.1	5.6	4.4	0.3	0.6	63.2%	—	0.0	69.6%	16.8%
10	Tyler Johnson	G	So	6'5"	17-13	26.2	8.0	4.5	1.6	0.7	62.5%	41.5%	2.4	67.7%	15.5%
77	Antonio Dorn	C	Fr	7'0"	24-5	8.5	2.6	1.8	0.4	0.5	64.3%	—	0.0	50.0%	17.8%
4	Izaiah Pasha	G	So	6'5"	18-0	8.2	2.0	0.8	0.7	0.6	36.3%	14.3%	0.4	53.8%	23.1%
5	Sin'Cere Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	11-0	6.5	0.6	1.4	0.0	0.1	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	33.3%	11.5%
7	Brett Freeman	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
22	Solomon Davis	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Virginia Tech

Against the spread

Season

17-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-1-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +1.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-15

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.0

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	N	L 89–95 OT	+1.0	L−5.0	151.5	O184	118.6	126.6	75.0
Mar 7	#13VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 72–76	+12.0	W+8.0	146.5	O148	108.5	114.6	66.3
Mar 3	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 72–63	−11.5	L−2.5	143.0	U135	108.8	95.2	66.2
Feb 28	#18North CarolinaAdjEM #29	A	L 82–89	+7.0	P0.0	150.0	O171	118.4	128.5	69.2
Feb 21	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	H	W 82–63	−4.0	W+15.0	148.5	U145	135.3	104.0	60.6
Feb 17	MiamiAdjEM #30	A	L 66–67	+8.5	W+7.5	148.0	U133	105.1	106.7	62.8
Feb 14	Florida StAdjEM #74	H	L 69–92	−4.0	L−27.0	156.5	O161	106.8	142.4	64.6
Feb 11	#20ClemsonAdjEM #35	A	W 76–66	+8.0	W+18.0	139.0	O142	117.2	101.8	64.9
Feb 7	NC StateAdjEM #34	A	L 73–82	+10.0	W+1.0	152.5	O155	101.0	113.5	72.3
Jan 31	#4DukeAdjEM #2	H	L 58–72	+13.5	L−0.5	148.0	U130	100.7	125.0	57.6

West Virginia

Against the spread

Season

18-17

Home

10-8

Road

3-6

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-22

Home

5-13

Road

2-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.9

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 5	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	W 89–82 OT	+3.0	W+10.0	138.5	O171	123.9	114.2	71.8
Apr 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	N	W 87–70	−1.5	W+15.5	137.0	O157	128.7	103.6	67.6
Apr 2	StanfordAdjEM #77	N	W 82–77 OT	−2.0	W+3.0	135.5	O159	111.7	104.9	73.4
Mar 11	BYUAdjEM #26	N	L 48–68	+3.5	L−16.5	141.0	U116	76.6	108.5	62.6
Mar 6	UCFAdjEM #70	H	W 77–62	−4.5	W+10.5	141.5	U139	115.4	92.9	66.7
Mar 3	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 63–65	−4.0	L−6.0	141.5	U128	94.4	97.4	66.7
Feb 28	#19BYUAdjEM #26	H	W 79–71	+2.0	W+10.0	141.0	O150	124.9	112.3	63.2
Feb 24	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	L 84–91 OT	−1.0	L−8.0	143.5	O175	115.4	125.1	72.8
Feb 21	TCUAdjEM #51	A	L 54–60	+4.5	L−1.5	133.5	U114	89.6	99.6	60.3
Feb 18	UtahAdjEM #177	H	L 56–61	−10.5	L−15.5	134.0	U117	91.7	99.9	61.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Virginia TechWest Virginia

Efficiency

113.1

109.6

105.3

101.3

68.2

65.2

—

Shooting

52.2%

51.6%

51.5%

53.1%

35.5%

33.1%

74.3%

68.3%

34.0%

35.1%

Ball control & glass

14.9%

16.8%

17.2%

17.8%

31.9%

30.5%

32.6%

28.6%

7.8%

9.6%

9.3%

11.4%

Style

39.7%

43.0%

42.1%

43.1%

10.6%

10.4%

52.4%

51.9%

27.6%

30.1%

Roster

2.51

3.39

6'5"

6'4.7"

74.9%

84.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Virginia Tech

Returning minutes: 74.9%Returning production: 74.4%

Lost

Neo Avdalas 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
Tobi Lawal 20.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Brett Freeman no D1 minutes last season
Solomon Davis no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 75% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

West Virginia

Returning minutes: 84.2%Returning production: 85.1%

Lost

Treysen Eaglestaff 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jackson Fields 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech

Added

MJ Feenane no D1 minutes last season
Evans Barning Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.