CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameBren Events Center, Irvine, CA
UC San Diego
Efficiency #121
2025-26: 23-11 · 13-9 conf
@
UC Irvine
Efficiency #105
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-6 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 10:00 PM ET
67.1
win 34%
Projected
71.8
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCI −4.7 · total 139.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC Irvine 68.9, UC San Diego 68.2 → 68.8 possessions
+1.1
UC Irvine offense vs UC San Diego defense
−4.8
UC San Diego offense vs UC Irvine defense
−5.5
Projected total
139.0
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC Irvine offense vs UC San Diego defense
−4.8
UC San Diego offense vs UC Irvine defense
+5.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
UC Irvine by 4.7
4.7
UC San Diego side ◂▸ UC Irvine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC Irvine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Irvine is the faster team (70.7, #63 of 365) and UC San Diego the slower (69.7, #102). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.0
model
Projected team totals
67.1 / 71.8
UC San Diego / UC Irvine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#190
UC San Diego
68.9#129
UC Irvine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
DefenseUC Irvine
UC Irvine's shot-blocking
UC Irvine ranks #11 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.5% of UC San Diego's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageUC Irvine
Where UC Irvine struggles: shooting
UC Irvine shoots an effective 49.5% (#268); UC San Diego allows 48.4% (#45). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUC San Diego
Where UC San Diego struggles: shooting
UC San Diego shoots an effective 52.6% (#124); UC Irvine allows 45.9% (#9). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUC San Diego
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
UC San Diego (#56 in 2-point shooting) against UC Irvine (#1 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 49.0%. Historically UC San Diego's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Pace
Track meet
UC Irvine averages 70.7 possessions per 40, UC San Diego 69.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UC San Diego's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UC San Diego at about 40.8% of its shots from three, UC Irvine about 33.1%.
UC San Diego has the ball
OffenseUC Irvine allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #124
45.9% #9
-2.8 pt/100
16.5% #164
18.8% #59
-1.4 pt/100
26.1% #320
31.2% #213
-1.6 pt/100
31.2% #277
26.7% #18
-0.8 pt/100
69.3% #290
—
-0.3 pt/100
UC San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.9 pts/100
UC Irvine has the ball
OffenseUC San Diego allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #268
48.4% #45
-3.6 pt/100
17.8% #258
16.8% #168
-0.7 pt/100
31.0% #166
27.0% #38
-0.8 pt/100
35.9% #152
29.3% #48
-0.4 pt/100
69.7% #276
—
-0.2 pt/100
UC Irvine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC San Diegooffense vsUC Irvinedefense
Share of shots by zone
UC San Diego shoots
UC Irvine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.3%#11246.5%#158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.6%#11038.0%#13539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.1%#18335.6%#9538.0%
Three32.8%#24133.7%#16733.7%
UC Irvineoffense vsUC San Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Irvine shoots
UC San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.5%#31254.6%#5358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3835.1%#5939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21339.5%#21838.0%
Three33.6%#19131.5%#4533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC San Diego
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#159 of 365
Off reb %
26.1%
#320
Def reb %
73.0%
#38
Turnover %
16.5%
#164
Forced TO %
16.8%
#168
FT rate
31.2%
#277
FT allowed
29.3%
#48
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.5
UC Irvine
+3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#52 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#166
Def reb %
68.8%
#213
Turnover %
17.8%
#258
Forced TO %
18.8%
#59
FT rate
35.9%
#152
FT allowed
26.7%
#18
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.2

UC Irvine has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.1 (#52 of 365) to UC San Diego’s +0.6 (#159).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC San Diego2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
9Tom BeattieGJr6'5"34-3431.210.65.33.41.553.6%32.1%3.957.5%20.5%
8Leo BeathFJr6'8"34-3330.112.25.11.61.550.0%32.9%4.474.0%24.5%
10Alex ChaikinGSo6'5"34-1725.09.72.11.21.254.3%39.2%5.780.3%22.1%
7Bol DengditFJr6'11"34-3423.410.75.21.71.852.7%29.4%2.564.3%28.3%
0Hudson MayesGFr6'5"33-1223.911.15.71.71.256.8%35.5%0.979.8%24.4%
20Aidan BurkeGJr6'3"34-1721.76.22.51.50.754.4%31.9%3.475.0%16.4%
5Emanuel Prospere IIGSr6'5"28-2222.18.03.83.12.051.4%20.6%1.260.9%24.7%
13Jaden VanceFFr6'6"24-013.55.02.10.61.052.1%36.1%1.574.1%23.6%
23Trap JohnsonGFr6'6"24-09.22.61.30.20.348.1%30.6%1.566.7%17.6%
33Dimitrije VukicevicCFr7'0"25-07.22.61.70.60.660.0%0.0%0.050.0%23.0%
4Cade PendletonFJr6'10"19-17.72.11.50.60.141.3%27.0%1.966.7%18.7%
1Ryder ElisaldezGSo6'3"10-04.30.90.20.50.262.5%50.0%0.2100.0%10.1%
2Christopher CoxGFr6'8"5-01.40.60.40.00.050.0%50.0%0.40.0%31.0%
22Yaqub MirGSo6'2"1-01.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%1.0—59.8%
11Jasen BrooksGSo6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
3Tyson DunnGSr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC San DiegoUC Irvine
Efficiency
107.3
105.1
104.8
101.6
68.2
68.9
—
—
Shooting
52.6%
49.5%
55.0%
49.1%
32.8%
33.6%
69.3%
69.7%
31.2%
35.9%
Ball control & glass
16.5%
17.8%
16.8%
18.8%
26.1%
31.0%
27.0%
31.2%
8.7%
9.1%
10.2%
9.1%
Style
42.3%
28.0%
47.7%
48.9%
15.9%
15.0%
55.5%
55.1%
30.4%
34.8%
Roster
2.51
2.42
6'6.3"
6'5.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UC Irvine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Feb 212025-26UC San Diego 71 – 69 UC Irvine
Sat, Jan 242025-26UC Irvine 61 – 59 UC San Diego

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.