CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHytche Center, Princess Anne, MD
NC A&T
Efficiency #271
2025-26: 11-19 · 4-15 conf
@
MD Eastern
Efficiency #345
2025-26: 9-23 · 5-10 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 2:00 PM ET
70.3
win 51%
Projected
69.9
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: NCAT −0.4 · total 140.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: MD Eastern 65.7, NC A&T 69.0 → 66.4 possessions
−4.2
MD Eastern offense vs NC A&T defense
−4.0
NC A&T offense vs MD Eastern defense
+0.2
Projected total
140.2
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
MD Eastern offense vs NC A&T defense
−4.0
NC A&T offense vs MD Eastern defense
−0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
NC A&T by 0.4
0.4
NC A&T side ◂▸ MD Eastern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help MD Eastern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, NC A&T is the faster team (69.1, #141 of 365) and MD Eastern the slower (64.4, #343). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.2
model
Projected team totals
70.3 / 69.9
NC A&T / MD Eastern
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.0#121
NC A&T
65.7#352
MD Eastern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageMD Eastern
Where MD Eastern struggles: ball control
MD Eastern turns it over on 23.8% of possessions (#365); NC A&T forces turnovers on 14.1% of opponent possessions (#331). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
MD Eastern averages 64.4 possessions per 40, NC A&T 69.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNC A&T
Where NC A&T struggles: ball control
NC A&T turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#305); MD Eastern forces turnovers on 17.9% of opponent possessions (#102). Expect about 18.5%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (MD Eastern, NC A&T's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC A&T at about 34.2% of its shots from three, MD Eastern about 33.8%.
GlassNC A&T
NC A&T owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for NC A&T's offense.
NC A&T has the ball
OffenseMD Eastern allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #201
50.7% #142
-0.9 pt/100
18.6% #305
17.9% #102
-2.1 pt/100
31.7% #136
33.6% #311
+1.5 pt/100
42.3% #26
43.0% #340
+1.0 pt/100
73.5% #154
—
+0.1 pt/100
NC A&T net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100
MD Eastern has the ball
OffenseNC A&T allowsvs D1 avg
47.8% #319
52.9% #266
-1.7 pt/100
23.8% #365
14.1% #331
-2.8 pt/100
32.4% #112
28.6% #89
+0.3 pt/100
29.5% #321
37.5% #250
-0.2 pt/100
71.5% #224
—
-0.1 pt/100
MD Eastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
NC A&Toffense vsMD Easterndefense
Share of shots by zone
NC A&T shoots
MD Eastern allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.9%#9758.3%#15558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.4%#29735.6%#7439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)41.5%#7233.2%#3238.0%
Three31.6%#30433.5%#15633.7%
MD Easternoffense vsNC A&Tdefense
Share of shots by zone
MD Eastern shoots
NC A&T allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.9%#27760.0%#22558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.4%#25936.9%#10939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.3%#13839.0%#20238.0%
Three29.0%#35436.6%#33133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
NC A&T
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#136
Def reb %
71.4%
#89
Turnover %
18.6%
#305
Forced TO %
14.1%
#331
FT rate
42.3%
#26
FT allowed
37.5%
#250
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.8
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.6
MD Eastern
−7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#361 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#112
Def reb %
66.4%
#311
Turnover %
23.8%
#365
Forced TO %
17.9%
#102
FT rate
29.5%
#321
FT allowed
43.0%
#340
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−4.8
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed−2.0

NC A&T has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#209 of 365) to MD Eastern’s −7.8 (#361).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC A&T2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Lewis WalkerFFr6'6"29-2634.218.95.01.81.855.2%36.7%2.786.2%28.1%
8Zamoku Weluche-UmeFJr6'8"29-2430.711.37.20.92.248.5%26.9%2.763.0%25.0%
1Trent Middleton Jr.GJr6'3"29-2829.612.53.63.12.350.9%31.1%3.676.5%26.8%
11Dwayne PierceGSo6'5"24-2328.08.52.32.72.141.4%30.8%3.862.1%24.5%
4Bryson OgletreeGJr6'4"28-821.04.51.81.10.860.4%36.4%2.053.6%12.2%
34Will FeltonCJr6'9"29-515.76.74.20.30.969.6%—0.057.6%21.4%
14Amadou DoumbiaFSo6'11"27-2314.03.44.00.20.551.5%0.0%0.163.9%14.7%
7Brooklyn VickGFr6'2"19-517.73.72.32.41.637.7%23.1%1.465.5%19.0%
32KJ DebrickFSr6'9"29-211.44.53.40.50.348.0%15.4%0.472.0%22.8%
2Mujahiid BurtonGJr6'5"20-216.45.01.30.50.547.4%31.9%3.562.5%19.7%
0Lureon WalkerGJr6'5"5-429.016.63.01.01.054.5%50.0%3.668.8%27.7%
9Yancarlos CuetoGFr6'5"6-08.72.31.20.50.845.8%33.3%1.575.0%19.6%
20Chanler MontgomeryGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
31Efstratios KalliontzisCSo6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Jalal McKieGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Uchenna Kellman-NicholesGJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
NC A&TMD Eastern
Efficiency
106.4
98.6
112.3
110.9
69.0
65.7
—
—
Shooting
50.7%
47.8%
52.3%
49.9%
31.6%
29.0%
73.5%
71.5%
42.3%
29.5%
Ball control & glass
18.6%
23.8%
14.1%
17.9%
31.7%
32.4%
28.6%
33.6%
9.7%
13.8%
8.4%
8.6%
Style
32.7%
33.5%
41.2%
46.3%
15.4%
10.1%
45.4%
56.5%
30.2%
42.2%
Roster
2.42
3.47
6'6"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
NC A&T
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

MD Eastern
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Fri, Dec 122025-26MD Eastern 79 – 82 NC A&T

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.