CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMemorial Hall (DE), Dover, DE

UMBC

Efficiency #147

2025-26: 24-9 · 17-2 conf

Delaware St

Efficiency #358

2025-26: 8-23 · 3-13 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

72.0

win 75%

Projected

64.2

win 25%

No line posted yet.

Model: UMBC −7.8 · total 136.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Delaware St 67.1, UMBC 67.5 → 66.2 possessions

−4.5

Delaware St offense vs UMBC defense

−9.6

UMBC offense vs Delaware St defense

+2.0

Projected total

136.2

Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Delaware St offense vs UMBC defense

−9.6

UMBC offense vs Delaware St defense

−2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

UMBC by 7.8

7.8

UMBC side ◂▸ Delaware St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 136.1 against a projected 136.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Delaware St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMBC is the faster team (66.5, #267 of 365) and Delaware St the slower (66.1, #293). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.2

model

Projected team totals

72.0 / 64.2

UMBC / Delaware St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.5#252

UMBC

67.1#279

Delaware St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDelaware St

Where Delaware St struggles: shooting

Delaware St shoots an effective 42.9% (#364); UMBC allows 49.4% (#79). Expect about 45.5%, 5.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -8.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUMBC

Where UMBC scores: shooting

UMBC shoots an effective 54.1% (#64); Delaware St allows 52.9% (#265). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashDelaware St

Style match: ball movement

Delaware St creates off the dribble (assists on 45.8% of its baskets); UMBC breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.0% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Half-court grind

Delaware St averages 66.1 possessions per 40, UMBC 66.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassDelaware St

Delaware St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.3% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against Delaware St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect UMBC at about 35.9% of its shots from three, Delaware St about 29.8%.

UMBC has the ball

OffenseDelaware St allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #64

52.9% #265

+3.5 pt/100

14.0% #25

19.5% #33

-0.2 pt/100

24.9% #342

32.0% #257

-1.9 pt/100

34.1% #205

40.5% #307

+0.3 pt/100

76.0% #54

—

+0.3 pt/100

UMBC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.1 pts/100

Delaware St has the ball

OffenseUMBC allowsvs D1 avg

42.9% #364

49.4% #79

-8.3 pt/100

19.9% #347

15.1% #285

-0.8 pt/100

27.7% #277

25.8% #18

-2.5 pt/100

34.1% #204

25.7% #10

-0.7 pt/100

68.9% #301

—

-0.3 pt/100

Delaware St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -12.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

UMBCoffense vsDelaware Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMBC shoots

36.8

7.5

16.4

39.3

Delaware St allows

45.6

3.7

15.7

35.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#100	63.0%#325	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.8%#25	35.4%#71	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#171	32.4%#19	38.0%
Three	36.1%#55	33.0%#123	33.7%

Delaware Stoffense vsUMBCdefense

Share of shots by zone

Delaware St shoots

37.2

3.8

29.8

29.2

UMBC allows

43.1

5.3

14.3

37.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.7%#355	54.5%#50	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#332	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.5%#275	36.5%#121	38.0%
Three	28.4%#361	32.7%#98	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

UMBC

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#64 of 365

Off reb %

24.9%

#342

Def reb %

74.2%

#18

Turnover %

14.0%

#25

Forced TO %

15.1%

#285

FT rate

34.1%

#205

FT allowed

25.7%

#10

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.8

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+2.4

Delaware St

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#277

Def reb %

68.0%

#257

Turnover %

19.9%

#347

Forced TO %

19.5%

#33

FT rate

34.1%

#204

FT allowed

40.5%

#307

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers+1.9

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

UMBC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#64 of 365) to Delaware St’s −3.1 (#306).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UMBC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ace Valentine	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	32.7	11.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	58.6%	38.1%	3.5	77.0%	20.2%
4	Jah'Likai King	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	32.2	14.0	3.3	1.5	1.4	48.3%	32.2%	4.7	82.5%	27.1%
11	Caden Diggs	F	So	6'8"	32-2	22.8	10.0	3.8	0.9	1.3	53.4%	35.6%	2.3	75.8%	26.7%
2	Josh Odunowo	F	Sr	6'6"	30-28	23.0	8.4	5.2	0.9	1.0	53.2%	—	0.0	73.7%	21.6%
14	Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	Jr	6'10"	32-17	19.2	6.5	5.7	0.8	0.8	55.7%	35.7%	2.2	64.9%	20.5%
23	Riley Jacobs	F	Fr	6'8"	32-16	15.5	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.8	48.6%	0.0%	0.4	55.9%	19.4%
21	Cougar Downing	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	55.7%	37.8%	2.4	81.3%	17.3%
5	Daylon Dickerson	F	Jr	6'6"	21-4	14.0	5.6	3.3	1.3	1.0	59.4%	25.0%	0.4	74.5%	22.1%
10	Paul Greene	F	Sr	6'6"	20-1	7.4	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.6	45.5%	—	0.0	60.0%	20.6%
7	Tim Eze	F	So	6'7"	15-0	5.6	1.8	1.1	0.1	0.3	45.8%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	22.1%
12	Jake Stout	F	So	6'7"	10-0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	21.7%
13	Devin Ceaser	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	7.7	4.3	1.0	0.3	1.7	54.2%	37.5%	2.7	—	42.3%
30	Saahil Thakkar	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	37.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	27.6%
0	Regimantas Ciunys	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Delaware St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ponce James	G	So	5'11"	27-27	32.8	13.6	2.9	3.4	2.1	44.4%	32.8%	4.5	84.7%	29.4%
2	Corey Perkins	G	Sr	6'2"	28-20	27.3	7.3	2.5	2.9	2.3	43.4%	32.5%	1.4	67.6%	21.8%
3	Miles Webb	F	Sr	6'8"	26-20	27.3	9.5	5.9	0.7	1.6	58.4%	40.9%	0.8	48.1%	21.8%
42	Bessanty Saragba	F	Sr	6'9"	25-17	22.1	3.2	3.2	0.2	0.7	45.2%	—	0.0	56.0%	11.1%
0	Rahmir Moore	G	Sr	6'3"	26-22	21.2	6.6	2.8	1.1	1.0	43.8%	31.3%	2.6	75.8%	21.4%
4	Zion Bethea	G	Sr	6'4"	29-14	15.3	5.4	2.2	0.6	1.0	40.0%	26.8%	2.8	66.7%	27.9%
37	Ademar Santos	F	Jr	6'8"	22-12	20.0	7.1	2.4	0.5	1.1	43.9%	30.3%	3.0	76.0%	25.8%
8	Jalen St Clair	G	Fr	6'1"	25-0	14.3	3.6	0.9	1.2	1.0	36.3%	17.9%	1.1	61.1%	22.9%
10	Cyril Obasogie	C	Jr	6'11"	24-11	14.8	2.8	4.0	0.3	0.5	43.5%	—	0.0	43.8%	15.4%
35	Muazibini Adamu	C	Jr	6'10"	25-6	12.9	1.9	3.2	0.3	0.8	42.9%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.0%
22	Dean Shepherd	G	Jr	6'3"	27-3	11.5	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.4	37.5%	21.7%	0.9	76.9%	22.3%
13	Kareem Watson	F	So	6'8"	19-2	11.1	3.8	1.9	0.3	1.0	39.8%	0.0%	0.1	70.0%	30.5%
11	Camian Shell	G	Sr	5'10"	7-1	24.0	8.0	1.9	1.9	2.4	50.0%	50.0%	1.1	66.7%	24.9%
5	John Clemmons	G	So	6'6"	23-0	7.0	2.7	1.2	0.0	0.5	30.2%	17.2%	1.3	77.8%	31.6%
—	Omar Stephen	F	Sr	—	7-0	2.1	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.3	66.7%	32.5%
—	Theodore Pendergrass III	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMBC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ace Valentine	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	32.7	11.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	58.6%	38.1%	3.5	77.0%	20.2%
4	Jah'Likai King	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	32.2	14.0	3.3	1.5	1.4	48.3%	32.2%	4.7	82.5%	27.1%
11	Caden Diggs	F	So	6'8"	32-2	22.8	10.0	3.8	0.9	1.3	53.4%	35.6%	2.3	75.8%	26.7%
2	Josh Odunowo	F	Sr	6'6"	30-28	23.0	8.4	5.2	0.9	1.0	53.2%	—	0.0	73.7%	21.6%
14	Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	Jr	6'10"	32-17	19.2	6.5	5.7	0.8	0.8	55.7%	35.7%	2.2	64.9%	20.5%
23	Riley Jacobs	F	Fr	6'8"	32-16	15.5	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.8	48.6%	0.0%	0.4	55.9%	19.4%
21	Cougar Downing	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	55.7%	37.8%	2.4	81.3%	17.3%
5	Daylon Dickerson	F	Jr	6'6"	21-4	14.0	5.6	3.3	1.3	1.0	59.4%	25.0%	0.4	74.5%	22.1%
10	Paul Greene	F	Sr	6'6"	20-1	7.4	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.6	45.5%	—	0.0	60.0%	20.6%
7	Tim Eze	F	So	6'7"	15-0	5.6	1.8	1.1	0.1	0.3	45.8%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	22.1%
12	Jake Stout	F	So	6'7"	10-0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	21.7%
13	Devin Ceaser	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	7.7	4.3	1.0	0.3	1.7	54.2%	37.5%	2.7	—	42.3%
30	Saahil Thakkar	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	37.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	27.6%
0	Regimantas Ciunys	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

UMBC

Against the spread

Season

18-12-1

Home

8-6-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +11.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-8

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#16HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 83–86	−1.0	L−4.0	142.5	O169	119.2	123.5	69.6
Mar 14	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 74–59	−1.5	W+13.5	134.5	U133	115.5	92.1	64.0
Mar 10	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 91–69	−7.0	W+15.0	148.0	O160	134.1	101.7	67.8
Mar 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 84–69	−13.0	W+2.0	142.0	O153	129.1	106.0	65.1
Mar 3	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 91–52	−5.0	W+34.0	142.5	O143	129.9	74.2	70.1
Feb 28	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	W 84–60	−2.0	W+22.0	151.5	U144	128.4	91.7	65.4
Feb 26	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 70–58	−10.0	W+2.0	138.0	U128	110.7	91.7	63.3
Feb 21	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	145.0	U128	110.9	104.1	59.5
Feb 19	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 75–62	+2.0	W+15.0	142.0	U137	111.4	92.1	67.3
Feb 14	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 85–63	−2.0	W+20.0	144.0	O148	123.6	91.6	68.8

Delaware St

Against the spread

Season

9-17-1

Home

4-5

Road

4-11-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

8-19

Home

3-6

Road

4-12

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	L 53–59	+4.0	L−2.0	131.0	U112	93.9	104.5	56.4
Mar 11	Morgan StAdjEM #349	N	W 75–70 OT	+3.0	W+8.0	143.0	O145	99.8	93.1	75.2
Mar 5	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	W 57–56	+5.5	W+6.5	125.0	U113	95.9	94.2	59.4
Mar 2	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	L 59–61	−3.0	L−5.0	134.5	U120	96.6	99.9	61.1
Feb 28	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	L 60–74	+2.5	L−11.5	135.5	U134	97.5	120.3	61.5
Feb 21	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 68–82	+5.5	L−8.5	145.0	O150	92.7	111.8	73.4
Feb 16	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 59–91	+11.0	L−21.0	130.5	O150	82.1	126.6	71.9
Feb 14	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 58–75	+9.0	L−8.0	134.0	U133	92.1	119.1	63.0
Feb 9	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 63–72	+8.0	L−1.0	134.5	O135	107.5	122.9	58.6
Feb 7	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	L 47–65	−1.0	L−19.0	133.5	U112	70.7	97.8	66.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UMBCDelaware St

Efficiency

109.3

94.5

108.0

110.7

67.5

67.1

—

Shooting

54.1%

42.9%

54.1%

43.1%

36.1%

28.4%

76.0%

68.9%

34.1%

Ball control & glass

14.0%

19.9%

15.1%

19.5%

24.9%

27.7%

25.8%

32.0%

7.8%

9.7%

6.4%

11.0%

Style

38.8%

28.9%

44.0%

41.6%

12.7%

17.6%

44.8%

45.8%

29.7%

35.2%

Roster

2.89

3.20

6'5.3"

6'4.6"

83.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UMBC

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

DJ Armstrong Jr. 32.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Regimantas Ciunys no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Delaware St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 29	2025-26	Delaware St 57 – 71 UMBC

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.