CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFoster Pavilion, Waco, TX

Memphis

Efficiency #152

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-11 conf

Baylor

Efficiency #55

2025-26: 17-17 · 6-13 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

72.6

win 21%

Projected

82.0

win 79%

No line posted yet.

Model: BAY −9.4 · total 154.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Baylor 68.6, Memphis 70.1 → 70.4 possessions

+4.4

Baylor offense vs Memphis defense

+3.7

Memphis offense vs Baylor defense

−1.7

Projected total

154.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Baylor offense vs Memphis defense

+3.7

Memphis offense vs Baylor defense

+1.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Baylor by 9.4

9.4

Memphis side ◂▸ Baylor side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Baylor.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Memphis is the faster team (71.4, #37 of 365) and Baylor the slower (69.3, #126). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.6

model

Projected team totals

72.6 / 82.0

Memphis / Baylor

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#44

Memphis

68.6#155

Baylor

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBaylor

Where Baylor scores: the offensive glass

Baylor rebounds 36.9% of its own misses (#18); Memphis lets opponents grab 35.6% of their own misses (#350). Expect about 37.5%, 7.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Baylor averages 69.3 possessions per 40, Memphis 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageMemphis

Where Memphis scores: the offensive glass

Memphis rebounds 35.3% of its own misses (#41); Baylor lets opponents grab 31.3% of their own misses (#219). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMemphis

Style match: 3-point volume

Memphis rarely shoots threes (33.7% of its shots); Baylor runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.0% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Memphis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Memphis at about 32.0% of its shots from three, Baylor about 42.0%.

DefenseMemphis

Memphis's shot-blocking

Memphis ranks #32 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Baylor's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Memphis has the ball

OffenseBaylor allowsvs D1 avg

48.7% #298

52.4% #237

-1.3 pt/100

18.9% #317

15.9% #226

-0.8 pt/100

35.3% #41

31.3% #219

+2.3 pt/100

34.7% #190

30.1% #61

-0.4 pt/100

72.1% #205

—

-0.0 pt/100

Memphis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.1 pts/100

Baylor has the ball

OffenseMemphis allowsvs D1 avg

53.4% #84

48.7% #55

-0.1 pt/100

16.3% #154

18.5% #70

-1.0 pt/100

36.9% #18

35.6% #350

+4.3 pt/100

34.1% #202

42.4% #329

+0.5 pt/100

73.5% #155

—

+0.1 pt/100

Baylor net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Memphisoffense vsBaylordefense

Share of shots by zone

Memphis shoots

37.6

6.9

22.0

33.5

Baylor allows

26.3

16.6

22.4

34.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#205	65.9%#358	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#207	47.6%#336	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#169	38.9%#199	38.0%
Three	31.6%#303	34.8%#240	33.7%

Bayloroffense vsMemphisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Baylor shoots

28.4

13.1

18.9

39.6

Memphis allows

35.7

5.6

16.2

42.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#55	59.0%#190	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.3%#47	44.8%#292	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#29	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	33.9%#179	30.5%#22	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Memphis

−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#275 of 365

Off reb %

35.3%

#41

Def reb %

64.4%

#350

Turnover %

18.9%

#317

Forced TO %

18.5%

#70

FT rate

34.7%

#190

FT allowed

42.4%

#329

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Baylor

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365

Off reb %

36.9%

#18

Def reb %

68.7%

#219

Turnover %

16.3%

#154

Forced TO %

15.9%

#226

FT rate

34.1%

#202

FT allowed

30.1%

#61

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Baylor has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#65 of 365) to Memphis’s −2.2 (#275).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Baylor2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Tounde Yessoufou	G	Fr	6'5"	34-34	32.7	17.8	5.9	1.6	1.9	52.0%	29.3%	5.3	74.6%	31.8%
5	Obi Agbim	G	Sr	6'3"	33-33	33.3	10.7	2.7	3.1	1.1	49.7%	35.6%	6.6	85.4%	19.7%
10	Isaac Williams IV	G	So	6'1"	34-14	25.0	10.4	2.2	3.3	1.6	61.5%	47.1%	1.5	68.4%	22.5%
44	Caden Powell	C	Sr	6'9"	34-20	24.4	6.9	6.3	1.3	1.1	67.2%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	14.6%
12	Michael Rataj	G	Sr	6'8"	34-19	23.1	7.2	4.6	1.7	1.4	45.2%	21.8%	1.6	70.7%	21.3%
0	Dan Skillings Jr.	G	Sr	6'6"	29-16	25.5	9.4	5.7	2.0	1.2	49.6%	29.7%	2.6	71.2%	22.6%
46	James Nnaji	C	Fr	7'0"	18-0	8.2	1.4	2.1	0.2	0.4	69.2%	—	0.0	57.1%	11.2%
2	Will Kuykendall	G	So	6'2"	9-0	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.1	0.6	61.5%	44.4%	1.0	100.0%	30.1%
1	JJ White	G	Sr	6'1"	4-0	6.5	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.5	—	12.5%
3	Drew Perry	G	Fr	5'10"	9-0	2.7	1.1	0.0	0.0	0.2	42.9%	28.6%	0.8	66.7%	26.0%
13	James Goodis	G	Jr	6'0"	3-0	2.7	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	125.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	12.8%
7	Andre Iguodala II	G	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
21	Juslin Bodo Bodo	C	Jr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Maikcol Perez	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Mayo Soyoye	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Memphis2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Dug McDaniel	G	Sr	5'11"	32-32	34.4	13.9	3.7	4.6	2.6	47.2%	32.9%	4.6	84.9%	26.6%
5	Curtis Givens III	G	So	6'3"	25-15	25.6	9.4	2.1	2.3	1.6	52.4%	36.5%	3.8	66.1%	22.4%
2	Zach Davis	G	Sr	6'7"	29-11	21.0	7.2	4.2	1.1	1.8	47.0%	27.8%	2.5	75.5%	23.9%
23	Sincere Parker	G	Sr	6'3"	31-4	19.5	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.9	46.2%	32.9%	2.7	79.8%	34.4%
15	Julius Thedford	G	So	6'4"	27-17	20.4	8.4	5.0	0.7	0.9	53.8%	34.1%	1.6	68.2%	22.5%
11	Aaron Bradshaw	F	Jr	7'1"	29-22	18.9	8.6	4.2	0.6	1.4	56.3%	33.3%	0.9	77.2%	25.3%
0	Quante Berry	G	Jr	6'4"	30-11	18.0	6.1	2.5	1.2	1.0	46.5%	29.8%	2.8	69.8%	21.7%
3	Ashton Hardaway	F	Jr	6'8"	25-9	19.6	5.6	2.5	1.4	1.2	48.8%	34.3%	2.7	73.7%	19.4%
31	Thierno Sylla	C	Sr	6'11"	23-14	13.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.7	50.8%	0.0%	0.2	60.0%	16.9%
10	Simon Majok	C	Fr	7'1"	25-10	12.4	2.9	2.4	0.2	0.6	48.9%	28.6%	0.3	71.8%	14.4%
14	Hasan Abdul Hakim	G	Sr	6'8"	13-10	22.4	6.2	4.1	1.8	2.2	42.0%	15.8%	1.5	60.7%	22.8%
19	Tariq Ingraham	F	Sr	6'9"	25-1	9.2	3.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	20.5%
12	William Whorton	F	So	6'8"	19-4	8.9	1.8	1.5	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.1	55.6%	15.3%
8	Mason Matthews	F	Sr	6'8"	7-0	3.3	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.9	—	16.7%
4	Arop Arop	F	Jr	6'11"	9-0	2.4	0.7	0.7	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	22.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Memphis

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

10-6

Road

2-11

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −7.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

8-8

Road

8-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +7.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	TulaneAdjEM #239	N	L 69–81	−4.5	L−16.5	150.5	U150	97.8	114.8	70.5
Mar 8	TulaneAdjEM #239	A	W 96–95 OT	−2.5	L−1.5	154.0	O191	124.2	122.9	77.3
Mar 5	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 89–96	+7.5	W+0.5	161.5	O185	114.8	123.8	77.5
Mar 1	East CarolinaAdjEM #272	A	L 68–84	−4.0	L−20.0	153.5	U152	92.5	114.3	73.5
Feb 26	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 82–88	−1.0	L−7.0	149.5	O170	114.1	122.4	71.9
Feb 22	UABAdjEM #111	H	L 67–78	−6.0	L−17.0	152.0	U145	93.4	108.7	71.8
Feb 19	South FloridaAdjEM #36	A	L 66–87	+9.5	L−11.5	163.5	U153	94.2	124.2	70.1
Feb 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	A	L 75–99	+14.0	L−10.0	154.5	O174	104.7	138.2	71.6
Feb 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 69–76	−1.5	L−8.5	138.0	O145	100.3	110.5	68.8
Feb 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–54	−9.5	W+13.5	144.5	U131	110.9	77.8	69.4

Baylor

Against the spread

Season

14-18-1

Home

6-9-1

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

18-15

Home

11-5

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 69–82	−1.5	L−14.5	159.5	U151	98.5	117.1	70.0
Apr 1	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	N	W 67–48	−3.5	W+15.5	146.5	U115	112.7	80.7	59.5
Mar 10	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	L 79–83	−5.0	L−9.0	152.5	O162	111.6	117.3	70.8
Mar 7	UtahAdjEM #177	H	W 101–75	−12.0	W+14.0	148.5	O176	159.9	118.7	63.2
Mar 4	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	A	L 64–77	+13.5	W+0.5	144.5	U141	98.2	118.2	65.2
Feb 28	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 87–86	+1.5	W+2.5	159.0	O173	131.3	129.8	66.2
Feb 24	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	H	L 80–87	+7.0	P0.0	155.5	O167	122.2	132.9	65.4
Feb 21	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 73–68	−8.5	L−3.5	158.0	U141	111.6	104.0	65.4
Feb 17	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	L 74–90	−3.5	L−19.5	159.0	O164	91.3	111.1	81.0
Feb 14	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 71–82	+7.0	L−4.0	161.5	U153	104.6	120.8	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MemphisBaylor

Efficiency

106.9

116.4

105.8

107.6

70.1

68.6

—

Shooting

48.7%

53.4%

49.4%

55.2%

31.6%

33.9%

72.1%

73.5%

34.7%

34.1%

Ball control & glass

18.9%

16.3%

18.5%

15.9%

35.3%

36.9%

35.6%

31.3%

11.3%

9.7%

10.4%

8.8%

Style

33.7%

39.7%

44.9%

44.8%

17.0%

13.6%

49.8%

52.2%

40.2%

22.3%

Roster

3.19

3.01

6'5.6"

6'5.3"

—

83.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Memphis

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Memphis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Baylor

Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.9%

Lost

Cameron Carr 33.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Maikcol Perez no D1 minutes last season
Mayo Soyoye no D1 minutes last season
Andre Iguodala II no D1 minutes last season
Juslin Bodo Bodo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Baylor 71 – 78 Memphis

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.