CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum, Greenville, NC
Radford
Efficiency #245
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-8 conf
@
East Carolina
Efficiency #272
2025-26: 11-20 · 6-12 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 4:00 PM ET
75.5
win 42%
Projected
78.0
win 58%
No line posted yet.
Model: ECU −2.5 · total 153.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: East Carolina 69.1, Radford 70.6 → 71.4 possessions
+6.6
East Carolina offense vs Radford defense
−1.5
Radford offense vs East Carolina defense
+0.2
Projected total
153.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
East Carolina offense vs Radford defense
−1.5
Radford offense vs East Carolina defense
−0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
East Carolina by 2.5
2.5
Radford side ◂▸ East Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.5 against a projected 153.6, and the margin steps add to +2.4 against +2.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help East Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Radford is the faster team (72.3, #18 of 365) and East Carolina the slower (69.2, #135). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.6
model
Projected team totals
75.5 / 78.0
Radford / East Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.6#24
Radford
69.1#110
East Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
East Carolina averages 69.2 possessions per 40, Radford 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageEast Carolina
Where East Carolina struggles: shooting
East Carolina shoots an effective 46.4% (#346); Radford allows 53.0% (#271). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (East Carolina) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Radford at about 43.8% of its shots from three, East Carolina about 31.8%.
GlassEast Carolina
East Carolina owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for East Carolina's offense.
TurnoversEast Carolina
East Carolina turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.1% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against East Carolina's offense.
Radford has the ball
OffenseEast Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #181
52.3% #229
+0.8 pt/100
17.1% #208
16.2% #206
+0.2 pt/100
29.8% #207
32.5% #282
+0.4 pt/100
42.4% #25
32.2% #110
+0.2 pt/100
71.0% #236
—
-0.1 pt/100
Radford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
East Carolina has the ball
OffenseRadford allowsvs D1 avg
46.4% #346
53.0% #271
-2.7 pt/100
17.1% #212
18.5% #73
-1.6 pt/100
33.4% #79
32.2% #267
+1.8 pt/100
39.2% #75
40.0% #301
+0.6 pt/100
70.0% #274
—
-0.2 pt/100
East Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Radfordoffense vsEast Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
Radford shoots
East Carolina allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24658.9%#18558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.6%#10944.4%#27939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.2%#14139.9%#23838.0%
Three33.5%#19934.9%#24533.7%
East Carolinaoffense vsRadforddefense
Share of shots by zone
East Carolina shoots
Radford allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.3%#31857.5%#13158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.8%#19839.8%#19039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.1%#18442.4%#31638.0%
Three29.3%#35035.5%#27933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Radford
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#136 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#207
Def reb %
67.8%
#267
Turnover %
17.1%
#208
Forced TO %
18.5%
#73
FT rate
42.4%
#25
FT allowed
40.0%
#301
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2
East Carolina
+1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#114 of 365
Off reb %
33.4%
#79
Def reb %
67.5%
#282
Turnover %
17.1%
#212
Forced TO %
16.2%
#206
FT rate
39.2%
#75
FT allowed
32.2%
#110
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.8

East Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.7 (#114 of 365) to Radford’s +1.0 (#136).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Radford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Del JonesGSo6'3"32-3231.817.23.53.53.046.5%30.9%4.380.9%33.8%
11Dennis Parker Jr.GJr6'6"32-3229.318.35.91.32.355.8%37.7%5.065.7%33.9%
3Jaylon JohnsonGSr6'0"29-2731.311.92.83.42.146.8%32.4%7.280.0%24.2%
21Tyson BrownFSr6'9"32-3227.66.57.30.71.359.4%0.0%0.043.0%14.3%
24Lukas WallsGJr6'5"32-2623.97.92.51.11.167.6%45.5%3.275.4%15.5%
4Brennan Rigsby Jr.GSr6'3"32-319.04.62.31.30.548.1%27.9%2.775.0%14.7%
5Mari JordanGSo6'5"32-813.75.32.70.70.655.4%31.8%1.494.6%19.9%
7Frederik ErichsenFFr6'9"32-013.25.62.40.70.954.7%30.0%1.674.3%23.5%
6Louie JordanFSr6'9"29-010.94.11.40.30.454.5%36.0%3.162.5%20.9%
12Gabriel FerreiraCFr6'10"11-08.12.62.80.10.252.2%0.0%0.155.6%18.2%
30Warren Keel Jr.GFr6'0"13-06.31.00.21.00.240.6%20.0%0.4—12.3%
13Bradley LandGJr6'6"9-03.90.90.70.10.344.4%0.0%0.20.0%20.2%
31Diogo AlvesGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Zion WalkerGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
RadfordEast Carolina
Efficiency
107.2
104.1
110.9
110.0
70.6
69.1
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
46.4%
52.3%
47.5%
33.5%
29.3%
71.0%
70.0%
42.4%
39.2%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
17.1%
18.5%
16.2%
29.8%
33.4%
32.2%
32.5%
9.7%
9.8%
9.6%
8.1%
Style
45.4%
31.1%
38.3%
43.4%
16.6%
12.0%
45.7%
47.3%
30.0%
27.1%
Roster
3.01
2.58
6'5"
6'4.1"
—
65.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Radford
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

East Carolina
Returning minutes: 65.8%Returning production: 50.3%
Lost
  • Jordan Riley 36.6 mpg, 22.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Giovanni Emejuru 32.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Daithi Quinn no D1 minutes last season
  • Jake Baker no D1 minutes last season
  • Grant Smith no D1 minutes last season
  • Trevion LaBeaux no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 66% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.