CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceEllis T. Johnson Arena, Morehead, KY
Presbyterian
Efficiency #252
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-10 conf
@
Morehead St
Efficiency #266
2025-26: 20-13 · 16-6 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
69.1
win 39%
Projected
72.3
win 61%
No line posted yet.
Model: MORE −3.2 · total 141.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Morehead St 67.0, Presbyterian 66.2 → 64.9 possessions
−7.3
Morehead St offense vs Presbyterian defense
0.0
Presbyterian offense vs Morehead St defense
+0.5
Projected total
141.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Morehead St offense vs Presbyterian defense
0.0
Presbyterian offense vs Morehead St defense
−0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.7
Morehead St by 3.2
3.2
Presbyterian side ◂▸ Morehead St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Morehead St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 64.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morehead St is the faster team (66.8, #251 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (66.1, #292). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
64.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.4
model
Projected team totals
69.1 / 72.3
Presbyterian / Morehead St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#332
Presbyterian
67.0#288
Morehead St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantagePresbyterian
Where Presbyterian scores: the offensive glass
Presbyterian rebounds 33.1% of its own misses (#86); Morehead St lets opponents grab 35.8% of their own misses (#351). Expect about 34.9%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
Morehead St averages 66.8 possessions per 40, Presbyterian 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageMorehead St
Where Morehead St scores: the offensive glass
Morehead St rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#27); Presbyterian lets opponents grab 30.6% of their own misses (#188). Expect about 34.3%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefensePresbyterian
Presbyterian's shot-blocking
Presbyterian ranks #36 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of Morehead St's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
ClashMorehead St
Style match: ball movement
Morehead St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.4% of its baskets); Presbyterian breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.3% — both habits push the same way.
Presbyterian has the ball
OffenseMorehead St allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #196
50.2% #109
-1.1 pt/100
19.3% #332
15.4% #258
-0.7 pt/100
33.1% #86
35.8% #351
+2.7 pt/100
39.3% #71
35.6% #201
+0.3 pt/100
68.5% #312
—
-0.3 pt/100
Presbyterian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100
Morehead St has the ball
OffensePresbyterian allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #285
51.2% #170
-1.8 pt/100
18.0% #272
15.7% #233
-0.1 pt/100
35.8% #27
30.6% #188
+2.4 pt/100
37.7% #109
37.1% #241
+0.3 pt/100
74.1% #125
—
+0.2 pt/100
Morehead St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersPresbyterianoffense vsMorehead Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Presbyterian shoots
42.5
11.2
18.8
27.6
Morehead St allows
39.7
6.2
15.3
38.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.6%#175 | 54.7%#55 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.6%#30 | 34.3%#49 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.8%#192 | 34.9%#74 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#301 | 34.5%#221 | 33.7% |
Morehead Stoffense vsPresbyteriandefense
Share of shots by zone
Morehead St shoots
39.8
8.7
21.1
30.4
Presbyterian allows
42.0
6.2
15.8
36.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#270 | 55.1%#61 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.0%#122 | 42.9%#247 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#86 | 40.0%#243 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.0%#281 | 34.7%#235 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPresbyterian
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365
Off reb %
33.1%
#86
Def reb %
69.4%
#188
Turnover %
19.3%
#332
Forced TO %
15.7%
#233
FT rate
39.3%
#71
FT allowed
37.1%
#241
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Morehead St
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#234 of 365
Off reb %
35.8%
#27
Def reb %
64.2%
#351
Turnover %
18.0%
#272
Forced TO %
15.4%
#258
FT rate
37.7%
#109
FT allowed
35.6%
#201
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Presbyterian has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#225 of 365) to Morehead St’s −1.0 (#234).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Presbyterian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carl Parrish | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.5 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 40.2% | 5.7 | 84.5% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jonah Pierce | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 55.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 57.3% | 31.5% | |
| 7 | Triston Wilson | G | So | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 46.4% | 23.7% | 2.8 | 82.4% | 25.3% | |
| 42 | Jaylen Peterson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 30.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 61.4% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 54.9% | 20.8% | |
| 4 | Josh Pickett | G | So | 6'5" | 33-27 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.6% | 34.7% | 3.7 | 68.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Iverson King | G | So | 6'6" | 21-2 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 41.5% | 22.2% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 19.3% | |
| 6 | Chidi Chiakwelu | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Khalon Hudson | G | So | 6'6" | 32-0 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 53.9% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 90.3% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | JD Bowden | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 37.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 | 87.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Erik Taylor | G | So | 6'1" | 6-4 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 51.9% | 29.4% | 2.8 | 76.9% | 19.0% | |
| 10 | Amare Anderson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 20-0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 17.9% | |
| 1 | Luke Allison | G | So | 6'0" | 7-0 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.6 | — | 14.3% | |
| 13 | Augustine Ayelyine | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Morehead St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Marshall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-33 | 30.4 | 13.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 51.8% | 37.7% | 5.1 | 83.4% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Davion Cunningham | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-9 | 27.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 45.2% | 30.0% | 2.2 | 73.1% | 29.3% | |
| 10 | Chase Dawson | G | So | 6'0" | 33-25 | 25.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 47.1% | 32.9% | 2.6 | 79.7% | 21.4% | |
| 8 | Anouar Mellouk | F | Sr | 6'8" | 33-24 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 53.3% | 25.7% | 1.1 | 58.6% | 20.7% | |
| 4 | Jon Carroll | F | Jr | 6'7" | 33-23 | 24.6 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 58.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.6% | |
| 0 | Josiah LeGree | G | So | 6'0" | 33-9 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 51.8% | 36.9% | 2.5 | 81.5% | 28.4% | |
| 5 | Vince Dawson III | G | Fr | 6'6" | 33-10 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.8% | 38.0% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 13.0% | |
| 24 | Tamaury Releford | C | Sr | 6'9" | 33-10 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 64.1% | — | 0.0 | 57.9% | 22.5% | |
| 22 | Tyonne Farrell | F | So | 6'6" | 27-14 | 13.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 52.5% | 22.1% | |
| 33 | Clayton Parker | F | Fr | 6'8" | 21-8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 37.1% | 18.9% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 12 | Jace Winkleman | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 1.2 | — | 35.3% | |
| 1 | Jacob Wilson | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | — | 24.7% | |
| 15 | Jaden Priester | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Jarvis Wright | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Kameren Wright | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Presbyterian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carl Parrish | G | Jr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.5 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 51.3% | 40.2% | 5.7 | 84.5% | 26.3% | |
| 15 | Jonah Pierce | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-33 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 55.2% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 57.3% | 31.5% | |
| 7 | Triston Wilson | G | So | 6'6" | 33-33 | 30.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 46.4% | 23.7% | 2.8 | 82.4% | 25.3% | |
| 42 | Jaylen Peterson | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 30.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 61.4% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 54.9% | 20.8% | |
| 4 | Josh Pickett | G | So | 6'5" | 33-27 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 47.6% | 34.7% | 3.7 | 68.9% | 16.5% | |
| 0 | Iverson King | G | So | 6'6" | 21-2 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 41.5% | 22.2% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 19.3% | |
| 6 | Chidi Chiakwelu | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-0 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 43.8% | 17.0% | |
| 2 | Khalon Hudson | G | So | 6'6" | 32-0 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 53.9% | 20.8% | 0.8 | 90.3% | 19.3% | |
| 3 | JD Bowden | G | Fr | 6'1" | 26-0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 37.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 | 87.0% | 20.5% | |
| 11 | Erik Taylor | G | So | 6'1" | 6-4 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 51.9% | 29.4% | 2.8 | 76.9% | 19.0% | |
| 10 | Amare Anderson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 20-0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 14.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 17.9% | |
| 1 | Luke Allison | G | So | 6'0" | 7-0 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 25.0% | 0.6 | — | 14.3% | |
| 13 | Augustine Ayelyine | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Presbyterian
Against the spread
Season
17-13
Home
7-4
Road
7-9
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −0.8
Covered 4 straightCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
7-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Winthrop | N | L 71–73 | +6.5 | W+4.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 103.4 | 106.4 | 68.6 |
| Mar 6 | Radford | N | W 91–85 OT | +2.0 | W+8.0 | 146.5 | O176 | 114.0 | 106.4 | 79.8 |
| Feb 28 | Winthrop | A | L 70–74 | +9.0 | W+5.0 | 150.5 | U144 | 99.6 | 105.3 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | High Point | H | L 73–79 | +11.5 | W+5.5 | 151.5 | O152 | 106.8 | 115.6 | 68.3 |
| Feb 21 | SC Upstate | A | L 74–76 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 141.5 | O150 | 114.9 | 118.0 | 64.4 |
| Feb 19 | Longwood | H | W 72–65 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 140.0 | U137 | 108.3 | 97.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Asheville | A | W 58–57 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 136.5 | U115 | 92.1 | 90.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 12 | Charleston So | A | L 67–84 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 146.5 | O151 | 99.3 | 124.5 | 67.5 |
| Feb 7 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 68–62 | −17.5 | L−11.5 | 145.5 | U130 | 107.4 | 97.9 | 63.3 |
| Jan 31 | Radford | H | L 84–93 2OT | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 152.0 | O177 | 102.0 | 112.9 | 82.4 |
Morehead St
Against the spread
Season
18-12
Home
7-3
Road
10-7
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +2.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
6-4
Road
8-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.9
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Tennessee St | N | L 67–93 | +5.0 | L−21.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 96.0 | 133.2 | 69.8 |
| Mar 6 | SE Missouri | N | W 66–61 | +4.0 | W+9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 102.1 | 94.4 | 64.6 |
| Feb 26 | Little Rock | A | W 76–70 | +2.5 | W+8.5 | 139.0 | O146 | 117.8 | 108.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | S Indiana | H | W 64–63 | −7.5 | L−6.5 | 142.5 | U127 | 105.7 | 104.0 | 60.5 |
| Feb 21 | W Illinois | A | W 81–59 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 144.0 | U140 | 127.6 | 92.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 19 | E Illinois | A | W 73–70 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 136.5 | O143 | 110.0 | 105.5 | 66.3 |
| Feb 14 | Tennessee St | H | W 94–86 | +1.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O180 | 135.8 | 124.3 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 73–66 | −4.0 | W+3.0 | 144.0 | U139 | 117.1 | 105.9 | 62.3 |
| Feb 7 | UT Martin | A | W 61–55 | +9.0 | W+15.0 | 136.0 | U116 | 101.3 | 91.3 | 60.2 |
| Feb 5 | SE Missouri | A | L 70–82 | +7.5 | L−4.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 99.9 | 117.1 | 70.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homePresbyterianMorehead St
Efficiency
105.0
107.5
109.5
112.8
66.2
67.0
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
49.2%
52.3%
49.7%
31.6%
32.0%
68.5%
74.1%
39.3%
37.7%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
18.0%
15.7%
15.4%
33.1%
35.8%
30.6%
35.8%
10.2%
10.6%
8.4%
9.2%
Style
28.0%
30.5%
52.6%
45.0%
11.5%
12.1%
49.1%
47.4%
23.3%
38.1%
Roster
2.53
2.81
6'6.1"
6'4.7"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPresbyterian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Morehead St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Morehead St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Morehead St 72 – 80 Presbyterian |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.