CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.8 against a projected 157.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Southern Utah.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern Utah is the faster team (70.9, #59 of 365) and Weber St the slower (69.9, #99). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.4%#257 | 57.5%#132 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.7%#310 | 35.1%#60 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#324 | 42.7%#324 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.5%#143 | 38.0%#358 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.3%#113 | 65.1%#353 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.1%#219 | 40.5%#199 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#291 | 40.1%#246 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#231 | 33.5%#160 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWeber St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.6 (#72 of 365) to Southern Utah’s −4.2 (#333).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tijan Saine Jr. | G | Jr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 32.6 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 52.2% | 34.7% | 4.5 | 89.6% | 28.5% | |
| 7 | Malek Gomma | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 25.1 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 54.2% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 47.0% | 19.5% | |
| 8 | Viljami Vartiainen | G | Jr | 6'6" | 26-23 | 30.0 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 61.8% | 42.2% | 6.9 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Nigel Burris | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-12 | 23.2 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 57.6% | 35.0% | 1.9 | 84.6% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Edwin Suarez Jr. | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 21.6 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 51.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 57.6% | 28.0% | |
| 6 | Trevor Hennig | G | So | 6'4" | 26-7 | 24.3 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 65.4% | 24.9% | |
| 24 | Jace Whiting | G | Jr | 6'3" | 20-18 | 30.8 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 51.3% | 36.2% | 3.5 | 82.4% | 21.0% | |
| 12 | ArDarius Grayson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 31-0 | 13.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 38.0% | 24.4% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 22.6% | |
| 9 | Duce Paschal | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-16 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 40.3% | 23.9% | 1.5 | 70.4% | 21.4% | |
| 15 | Declan Cutler | F | So | 6'9" | 27-0 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 63.0% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 11.8% | |
| 33 | David Hansen | F | Fr | 6'9" | 23-0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.7% | 37.8% | 1.6 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Brady Smith | G | Jr | 6'0" | 7-0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 28.8% | |
| 4 | Anthony Moore | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Tyler Christensen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Jaiden Feroah | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 62.3% | 41.5% | 2.9 | 86.5% | 23.3% | |
| 3 | Tanner Hayhurst | G | Jr | 6'6" | 31-26 | 29.2 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 60.9% | 46.1% | 3.7 | 87.7% | 17.2% | |
| 1 | Elijah Duval | G | Fr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 26.4 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 51.2% | 31.9% | 3.0 | 62.6% | 38.0% | |
| 0 | Isaiah Cottrell | F | Sr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 25.5 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44.9% | 20.4% | 1.7 | 70.7% | 22.5% | |
| 20 | Dylan Jones | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-14 | 24.8 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 56.4% | 36.5% | 4.9 | 82.4% | 17.6% | |
| 24 | Cale Barclay | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-8 | 15.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 45.3% | 13.2% | 1.2 | 68.5% | 20.3% | |
| 25 | Kai Burdick | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-9 | 13.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.1 | 40.0% | 16.1% | |
| 4 | Lorenzo Abellar | G | Sr | 5'10" | 31-4 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 36.5% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 78.0% | 19.6% | |
| 9 | Jalen Lee | G | So | 6'7" | 24-3 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 48.2% | 35.2% | 2.3 | 71.0% | 22.2% | |
| 5 | Zach Bell | G | Jr | 6'2" | 10-2 | 20.8 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 44.4% | 21.1% | 1.9 | 77.8% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Logan Stephens | G | Sr | 6'3" | 20-0 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 1.3 | 74.1% | 34.1% | |
| 13 | Brayden Johnson | G | So | 6'1" | 11-0 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 30.8% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 15.0% | |
| 7 | Zeplin Kidd | G | Fr | 6'7" | 11-0 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 46.2% | 25.0% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 15.7% | |
| 23 | Chuks Isitua | F | So | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 28.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Langston Binns | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38.5% | 22.2% | 2.3 | 0.0% | 29.9% | |
| 11 | Juok Riak | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tijan Saine Jr. | G | Jr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 32.6 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 52.2% | 34.7% | 4.5 | 89.6% | 28.5% | |
| 7 | Malek Gomma | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 25.1 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 54.2% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 47.0% | 19.5% | |
| 8 | Viljami Vartiainen | G | Jr | 6'6" | 26-23 | 30.0 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 61.8% | 42.2% | 6.9 | 78.4% | 20.6% | |
| 5 | Nigel Burris | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-12 | 23.2 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 57.6% | 35.0% | 1.9 | 84.6% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Edwin Suarez Jr. | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-20 | 21.6 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 51.8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 57.6% | 28.0% | |
| 6 | Trevor Hennig | G | So | 6'4" | 26-7 | 24.3 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 52.2% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 65.4% | 24.9% | |
| 24 | Jace Whiting | G | Jr | 6'3" | 20-18 | 30.8 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 51.3% | 36.2% | 3.5 | 82.4% | 21.0% | |
| 12 | ArDarius Grayson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 31-0 | 13.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 38.0% | 24.4% | 1.5 | 77.8% | 22.6% | |
| 9 | Duce Paschal | G | Fr | 6'5" | 31-16 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 40.3% | 23.9% | 1.5 | 70.4% | 21.4% | |
| 15 | Declan Cutler | F | So | 6'9" | 27-0 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 63.0% | — | 0.0 | 54.5% | 11.8% | |
| 33 | David Hansen | F | Fr | 6'9" | 23-0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.7% | 37.8% | 1.6 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Brady Smith | G | Jr | 6'0" | 7-0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 28.8% | |
| 4 | Anthony Moore | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Tyler Christensen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | E Washington | N | L 79–84 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 154.5 | O163 | 113.9 | 121.1 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | Portland St | A | L 60–84 | +5.0 | L−19.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 87.0 | 121.8 | 68.9 |
| Feb 28 | Idaho St | A | W 83–73 | +2.0 | W+12.0 | 153.0 | O156 | 122.0 | 107.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Montana | H | W 92–72 | −2.5 | W+17.5 | 152.0 | O164 | 136.2 | 106.6 | 67.5 |
| Feb 19 | Montana St | H | W 82–79 OT | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | O161 | 112.7 | 108.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | E Washington | A | L 66–84 | +3.0 | L−15.0 | 155.0 | U150 | 96.1 | 122.3 | 68.7 |
| Feb 12 | Idaho | A | W 83–72 | +5.5 | W+16.5 | 154.0 | O155 | 129.1 | 112.0 | 64.3 |
| Feb 7 | N Arizona | H | W 72–53 | −7.0 | W+12.0 | 151.0 | U125 | 122.6 | 90.3 | 58.7 |
| Feb 5 | N Colorado | H | L 74–88 | +1.5 | L−12.5 | 162.0 | P162 | 109.5 | 130.2 | 67.6 |
| Feb 2 | Sacramento St | A | L 90–104 | +1.5 | L−12.5 | 162.5 | O194 | 115.3 | 133.3 | 78.0 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | UT Arlington | N | L 63–69 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 88.3 | 96.7 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | CA Baptist | H | L 75–82 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 107.2 | 117.2 | 69.9 |
| Mar 5 | Utah Valley | H | L 88–92 | +10.0 | W+6.0 | 150.0 | O180 | 123.5 | 129.1 | 71.3 |
| Feb 28 | Utah Tech | H | W 81–67 | +2.0 | W+16.0 | 156.0 | U148 | 122.1 | 101.0 | 66.3 |
| Feb 21 | Abilene Chrstn | A | L 83–87 | +8.0 | W+4.0 | 143.5 | O170 | 110.6 | 115.9 | 75.1 |
| Feb 19 | Tarleton St | A | L 74–78 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 145.0 | O152 | 110.5 | 116.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 14 | UT Arlington | A | W 78–73 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | O151 | 111.7 | 104.5 | 69.8 |
| Feb 12 | CA Baptist | H | L 66–83 | +5.5 | L−11.5 | 147.0 | O149 | 97.6 | 122.7 | 67.7 |
| Feb 7 | Tarleton St | H | L 59–62 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 146.5 | U121 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 68.8 |
| Jan 31 | Abilene Chrstn | A | W 79–76 | +6.0 | W+9.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 115.6 | 111.2 | 68.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.