CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceGallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK

Saint Mary's

Efficiency #23

2025-26: 27-6 · 16-3 conf

Oklahoma St

Efficiency #89

2025-26: 20-15 · 7-13 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

78.6

win 59%

Projected

75.9

win 41%

No line posted yet.

Model: SMC −2.6 · total 154.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma St 71.7, Saint Mary's 66.7 → 70.1 possessions

+3.8

Oklahoma St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

−2.1

Saint Mary's offense vs Oklahoma St defense

+4.6

Projected total

154.5

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Oklahoma St offense vs Saint Mary's defense

−2.1

Saint Mary's offense vs Oklahoma St defense

−4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Saint Mary's by 2.6

2.6

Saint Mary's side ◂▸ Oklahoma St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −2.7 against −2.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Oklahoma St is the faster team (74.0, #6 of 365) and Saint Mary's the slower (66.2, #288). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.5

model

Projected team totals

78.6 / 75.9

Saint Mary's / Oklahoma St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.7#305

Saint Mary's

71.7#8

Oklahoma St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Oklahoma St averages 74.0 possessions per 40, Saint Mary's 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageSaint Mary's

Where Saint Mary's scores: the offensive glass

Saint Mary's rebounds 37.5% of its own misses (#11); Oklahoma St lets opponents grab 30.4% of their own misses (#178). Expect about 35.3%, 4.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageOklahoma St

Where Oklahoma St struggles: shooting

Oklahoma St shoots an effective 52.0% (#144); Saint Mary's allows 46.8% (#19). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Mary's, Saint Mary's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Saint Mary's at about 39.3% of its shots from three, Oklahoma St about 34.7%.

TurnoversOklahoma St

Oklahoma St protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Oklahoma St's offense.

GlassOklahoma St

Oklahoma St gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Oklahoma St's offense.

Saint Mary's has the ball

OffenseOklahoma St allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #109

53.1% #272

+2.6 pt/100

16.8% #189

15.6% #243

+0.9 pt/100

37.5% #11

30.4% #178

+3.0 pt/100

35.5% #162

31.5% #96

-0.2 pt/100

80.3% #2

—

+0.7 pt/100

Saint Mary's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100

Oklahoma St has the ball

OffenseSaint Mary's allowsvs D1 avg

52.0% #144

46.8% #19

-2.6 pt/100

15.8% #120

15.2% #270

+1.9 pt/100

30.8% #169

23.9% #4

-1.8 pt/100

39.4% #70

25.7% #12

-0.4 pt/100

74.5% #102

—

+0.2 pt/100

Oklahoma St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Saint Mary'soffense vsOklahoma Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Saint Mary's shoots

37.5

7.8

17.6

37.0

Oklahoma St allows

40.1

5.1

12.4

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.4%#215	57.2%#120	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.2%#117	48.5%#344	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#253	36.9%#129	38.0%
Three	38.7%#7	36.0%#304	33.7%

Oklahoma Stoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oklahoma St shoots

48.2

4.5

12.5

34.7

Saint Mary's allows

36.6

7.7

18.7

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#180	54.4%#47	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#295	46.4%#324	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#248	33.7%#43	38.0%
Three	33.9%#176	31.3%#40	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Saint Mary's

+6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#13 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

76.1%

Turnover %

16.8%

#189

Forced TO %

15.2%

#270

FT rate

35.5%

#162

FT allowed

25.7%

#12

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+2.2

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.1

Foul shots allowed+2.4

Oklahoma St

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#87 of 365

Off reb %

30.8%

#169

Def reb %

69.6%

#178

Turnover %

15.8%

#120

Forced TO %

15.6%

#243

FT rate

39.4%

#70

FT allowed

31.5%

#96

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Saint Mary's has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.0 (#13 of 365) to Oklahoma St’s +2.2 (#87).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Saint Mary's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Joshua Dent	G	So	6'3"	33-33	36.2	13.2	2.5	5.6	2.3	56.7%	40.4%	4.6	91.8%	21.7%
23	Paulius Murauskas	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	32.2	18.4	7.6	2.1	1.8	52.5%	33.3%	3.3	84.0%	32.7%
11	Dillan Shaw	G	Fr	6'7"	33-22	27.5	7.5	5.4	1.5	1.0	55.7%	41.6%	3.8	69.7%	17.0%
0	Mikey Lewis	G	So	6'3"	33-33	26.8	13.9	2.7	2.1	1.4	48.6%	36.8%	5.6	88.2%	33.0%
45	Andrew McKeever	C	So	7'2"	33-10	23.1	8.2	9.2	1.8	1.7	50.0%	—	0.0	62.8%	24.8%
33	Liam Campbell	G	Fr	6'4"	33-0	14.7	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.5	63.7%	52.0%	1.5	80.0%	16.9%
8	Rory Hawke	G	Fr	6'5"	31-4	11.0	2.5	1.2	0.4	0.5	54.7%	22.2%	0.6	78.3%	14.3%
6	Mantas Juzenas	G	Fr	6'6"	26-1	5.8	2.1	1.4	0.3	0.3	66.2%	48.4%	1.2	55.6%	19.5%
2	Tony Duckett	G	So	6'4"	20-0	7.3	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	45.1%	30.8%	0.7	92.0%	29.4%
24	Kevin Gad	F	Jr	6'6"	7-7	10.1	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.1	45.5%	33.3%	0.9	—	10.0%
22	Cade Bennett	G	Jr	6'0"	8-0	4.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.9%
14	Oliver Faubert	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	11.5%
32	Jazz Gardner	C	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
42	Trent MacLean	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oklahoma St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Kanye Clary	G	Jr	6'0"	34-31	28.2	10.6	2.9	4.6	2.0	46.2%	35.5%	3.6	80.7%	23.4%
9	Anthony Roy	G	Sr	6'5"	31-25	28.7	16.9	4.1	1.3	1.6	55.5%	39.0%	7.5	85.7%	29.4%
4	Christian Coleman	G	Sr	6'8"	34-26	25.3	10.3	5.6	1.0	1.2	53.7%	27.1%	1.7	66.7%	22.4%
5	Vyctorius Miller	G	So	6'5"	32-26	25.5	10.8	2.7	1.8	1.6	50.8%	37.5%	3.8	85.7%	23.1%
0	Jaylen Curry	G	Jr	6'1"	33-7	23.8	10.1	3.2	3.5	1.4	46.3%	31.6%	2.4	80.6%	25.1%
22	Parsa Fallah	F	Sr	6'10"	26-26	26.4	14.7	6.0	0.8	1.3	62.3%	40.0%	1.2	68.0%	26.1%
21	Isaiah Coleman	G	Jr	6'5"	33-5	19.2	6.4	3.8	0.8	1.2	50.0%	8.0%	0.8	57.1%	20.7%
19	Andrija Vukovic	F	So	6'11"	27-3	15.2	5.3	3.4	0.6	0.7	62.8%	33.3%	0.1	69.0%	16.7%
24	Ryan Crotty	G	Fr	6'6"	28-10	10.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.2	42.9%	29.6%	1.9	75.0%	14.8%
23	Benjamin Ahmed	C	Fr	6'10"	21-7	12.6	4.9	3.6	0.2	0.9	55.4%	—	0.0	56.6%	22.4%
72	Lefteris Mantzoukas	F	Fr	6'9"	12-6	17.8	4.4	4.2	0.5	1.0	44.6%	24.2%	2.8	60.0%	17.0%
8	Daniel Guetta	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	9.5	2.0	0.7	0.8	1.1	52.8%	14.3%	0.6	60.0%	16.0%
13	Mekhi Ragland	F	Fr	6'11"	14-0	5.6	1.4	1.6	0.2	0.1	34.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	19.3%
7	Kirk Cole	G	Sr	6'1"	12-0	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	46.2%	33.3%	1.0	—	13.2%
25	Robert Jennings II	F	Sr	6'7"	3-3	12.7	3.7	4.0	0.0	1.0	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	50.0%	18.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Saint Mary's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Joshua Dent	G	So	6'3"	33-33	36.2	13.2	2.5	5.6	2.3	56.7%	40.4%	4.6	91.8%	21.7%
23	Paulius Murauskas	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	32.2	18.4	7.6	2.1	1.8	52.5%	33.3%	3.3	84.0%	32.7%
11	Dillan Shaw	G	Fr	6'7"	33-22	27.5	7.5	5.4	1.5	1.0	55.7%	41.6%	3.8	69.7%	17.0%
0	Mikey Lewis	G	So	6'3"	33-33	26.8	13.9	2.7	2.1	1.4	48.6%	36.8%	5.6	88.2%	33.0%
45	Andrew McKeever	C	So	7'2"	33-10	23.1	8.2	9.2	1.8	1.7	50.0%	—	0.0	62.8%	24.8%
33	Liam Campbell	G	Fr	6'4"	33-0	14.7	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.5	63.7%	52.0%	1.5	80.0%	16.9%
8	Rory Hawke	G	Fr	6'5"	31-4	11.0	2.5	1.2	0.4	0.5	54.7%	22.2%	0.6	78.3%	14.3%
6	Mantas Juzenas	G	Fr	6'6"	26-1	5.8	2.1	1.4	0.3	0.3	66.2%	48.4%	1.2	55.6%	19.5%
2	Tony Duckett	G	So	6'4"	20-0	7.3	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.4	45.1%	30.8%	0.7	92.0%	29.4%
24	Kevin Gad	F	Jr	6'6"	7-7	10.1	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.1	45.5%	33.3%	0.9	—	10.0%
22	Cade Bennett	G	Jr	6'0"	8-0	4.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.9%
14	Oliver Faubert	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	33.3%	—	0.0	—	11.5%
32	Jazz Gardner	C	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
42	Trent MacLean	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Saint Mary's

Against the spread

Season

19-13

Home

12-4

Road

6-4

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-18-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#10Texas A&MAdjEM #43	N	L 50–63	−2.5	L−15.5	148.5	U113	84.5	106.4	59.2
Mar 9	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	N	L 71–76	−4.5	L−9.5	150.0	U147	114.8	122.9	61.8
Feb 28	#9GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	W 70–59	+2.5	W+13.5	143.0	U129	109.4	92.2	64.0
Feb 25	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	H	W 86–67	−5.5	W+13.5	154.0	U153	131.5	102.4	65.4
Feb 21	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 83–67	−8.5	W+7.5	148.5	O150	131.9	106.5	62.9
Feb 18	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	W 72–70	−9.5	L−7.5	133.0	O142	98.4	95.7	73.1
Feb 14	PacificAdjEM #126	A	W 72–61	−7.0	W+4.0	135.5	U133	113.5	96.2	63.4
Feb 11	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	W 88–60	−24.5	W+3.5	144.0	O148	122.9	83.8	71.6
Feb 7	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	H	W 79–54	−11.5	W+13.5	143.0	U133	123.1	84.1	64.2
Feb 4	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 87–60	−19.5	W+7.5	149.0	U147	136.3	94.0	63.8

Oklahoma St

Against the spread

Season

15-19-1

Home

8-13

Road

5-5

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −2.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

21-14

Home

14-7

Road

4-6

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +11.9

Over 8 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	Wichita StAdjEM #60	H	L 70–96	−2.5	L−28.5	163.0	O166	95.1	130.5	73.6
Mar 17	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	W 84–80	−6.5	L−2.5	154.0	O164	114.6	109.2	73.3
Mar 11	TCUAdjEM #51	N	L 88–95	+7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	127.6	137.8	69.0
Mar 10	ColoradoAdjEM #91	N	W 92–83	+1.0	W+10.0	165.0	O175	125.8	113.5	73.1
Mar 7	#7HoustonAdjEM #6	H	L 75–82	+13.5	W+6.5	150.5	O157	112.1	122.6	66.9
Mar 3	UCFAdjEM #70	A	W 111–104 OT	+8.5	W+15.5	168.5	O215	127.3	119.3	87.2
Feb 28	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	A	L 68–91	+9.5	L−13.5	152.5	O159	94.7	126.7	71.8
Feb 24	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 91–84 OT	+1.0	W+8.0	143.5	O175	125.1	115.4	72.8
Feb 21	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	L 69–83	+3.5	L−10.5	162.5	U152	95.6	114.9	72.2
Feb 18	#8KansasAdjEM #25	H	L 69–81	+6.5	L−5.5	159.5	U150	98.2	115.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Saint Mary'sOklahoma St

Efficiency

114.9

113.1

100.8

108.6

66.7

71.7

—

Shooting

52.8%

52.0%

49.8%

52.6%

38.7%

33.9%

80.3%

74.5%

35.5%

39.4%

Ball control & glass

16.8%

15.8%

15.2%

15.6%

37.5%

30.8%

23.9%

30.4%

8.4%

9.1%

8.8%

10.3%

Style

36.4%

35.5%

40.9%

45.9%

10.5%

15.5%

57.8%

50.4%

29.3%

35.8%

Roster

1.88

2.92

6'6.2"

6'5.4"

91.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Saint Mary's

Returning minutes: 91.9%Returning production: 91.8%

Lost

Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Trent MacLean no D1 minutes last season
Jazz Gardner no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 92% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oklahoma St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Oklahoma St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.