CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameUPMC Events Center, Moon Township, PA

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Robert Morris

Efficiency #142

2025-26: 22-11 · 14-8 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

68.9

win 31%

Projected

74.8

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: RMU −5.8 · total 143.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Robert Morris 66.4, Youngstown St 68.3 → 66.4 possessions

−4.2

Robert Morris offense vs Youngstown St defense

+0.9

Youngstown St offense vs Robert Morris defense

−1.2

Projected total

143.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Robert Morris offense vs Youngstown St defense

+0.9

Youngstown St offense vs Robert Morris defense

+1.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Robert Morris by 5.8

5.8

Youngstown St side ◂▸ Robert Morris side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +5.9 against +5.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Robert Morris.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Youngstown St is the faster team (68.6, #169 of 365) and Robert Morris the slower (66.1, #289). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.7

model

Projected team totals

68.9 / 74.8

Youngstown St / Robert Morris

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.3#187

Youngstown St

66.4#323

Robert Morris

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRobert Morris

Where Robert Morris scores: shooting

Robert Morris shoots an effective 54.9% (#39); Youngstown St allows 52.3% (#228). Expect about 53.9%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.

GlassRobert Morris

Robert Morris owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.5% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Robert Morris's offense.

TurnoversRobert Morris

Robert Morris turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Robert Morris's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Robert Morris) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Youngstown St at about 45.2% of its shots from three, Robert Morris about 37.1%.

ClashYoungstown St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Youngstown St takes 49.4% of its shots from three; Robert Morris runs teams off the line (36.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashRobert Morris

Style clash: ball movement

Robert Morris assists on 62.8% of its made baskets; Youngstown St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 56.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseRobert Morris allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

50.0% #100

+1.0 pt/100

18.8% #313

15.9% #225

-0.7 pt/100

30.4% #182

28.8% #98

-0.5 pt/100

31.4% #272

40.1% #303

+0.2 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.1 pts/100

Robert Morris has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #39

52.3% #228

+3.7 pt/100

18.6% #302

17.8% #106

-2.1 pt/100

37.5% #11

30.7% #191

+3.1 pt/100

28.0% #343

36.0% #210

-0.4 pt/100

69.4% #289

—

-0.3 pt/100

Robert Morris net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown Stoffense vsRobert Morrisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

Robert Morris allows

42.6

6.6

15.3

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	55.8%#80	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	37.5%#141	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	33.2%#135	33.7%

Robert Morrisoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Robert Morris shoots

38.1

6.1

15.5

40.2

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#86	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.8%#271	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#85	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	38.0%#18	35.5%#280	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Robert Morris

−1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#267 of 365

Off reb %

37.5%

#11

Def reb %

71.2%

#98

Turnover %

18.6%

#302

Forced TO %

15.9%

#225

FT rate

28.0%

#343

FT allowed

40.1%

#303

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.3

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.2

Youngstown St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#263 of 365) to Robert Morris’s −1.9 (#267).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Robert Morris2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Ryan Prather Jr.	G	Jr	6'5"	33-33	34.0	15.7	3.9	3.6	0.8	54.3%	36.8%	6.9	84.7%	25.8%
16	Nikolaos Chitikoudis	F	Jr	6'9"	32-27	26.1	11.3	7.7	1.8	1.3	54.7%	0.0%	0.1	39.8%	27.8%
12	Darius Livingston	G	Fr	6'2"	27-7	25.8	9.6	2.0	3.0	2.6	52.5%	38.4%	5.9	64.3%	27.3%
20	Albert Vargas	G	Sr	5'10"	28-26	24.1	7.5	2.3	4.0	2.0	47.6%	38.9%	3.2	87.5%	22.3%
4	Kaleb Brown	G	Sr	6'7"	32-20	19.7	4.1	2.5	2.3	1.3	50.4%	30.0%	2.2	60.0%	16.2%
3	Ta'Zir Smith	G	Jr	6'3"	31-11	19.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	1.0	47.1%	30.6%	2.7	77.4%	23.3%
1	Josh Hill	F	So	6'11"	22-6	16.9	7.5	4.4	0.4	1.5	51.7%	29.0%	2.8	51.9%	30.7%
5	Cam Wilds	G	Jr	6'6"	24-3	13.1	4.0	1.6	0.6	0.7	57.4%	48.3%	1.2	75.0%	18.3%
13	Samuel Obenjo	F	Fr	6'10"	23-0	9.0	1.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	60.0%	—	0.0	43.5%	13.2%
6	Eddie Cooke III	F	Fr	6'5"	14-0	8.6	2.6	2.6	1.2	0.6	47.6%	0.0%	0.2	94.1%	19.2%
35	Ubong Okon	C	Sr	7'1"	17-0	6.2	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	100.0%	8.6%
21	Jeremiah Littlejohn	G	Jr	6'5"	5-0	4.2	3.6	0.4	0.2	0.6	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	80.0%	54.0%
9	Cyril Arvanitis	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	2.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	25.1%
8	Tanner O'Grady	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Vasilije Serafimoski	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

Robert Morris

Against the spread

Season

19-11-1

Home

10-4-1

Road

9-6

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +7.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-14-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.9

Under 4 straightOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	N	L 64–70	−4.0	L−10.0	146.5	U134	101.5	111.1	63.0
Mar 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 68–53	−4.0	W+11.0	143.5	U121	109.0	84.9	62.4
Feb 28	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 83–64	−12.5	W+6.5	157.5	U147	129.8	100.1	63.9
Feb 25	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 73–62	−8.0	W+3.0	150.5	U135	114.8	97.5	63.6
Feb 22	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	W 81–68	+4.0	W+17.0	146.5	O149	119.9	100.6	67.6
Feb 15	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 93–69	−1.5	W+22.5	156.0	O162	140.7	104.4	66.1
Feb 12	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 85–68	−4.0	W+13.0	154.0	U153	135.3	108.3	62.8
Feb 7	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	W 72–66	+3.5	W+9.5	144.0	U138	111.5	102.2	64.6
Feb 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	W 72–66	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U138	105.0	96.2	68.6
Jan 31	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 71–83	+2.5	L−9.5	144.5	O154	101.6	118.8	69.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Youngstown StRobert Morris

Efficiency

106.8

110.0

108.3

108.4

68.3

66.4

—

Shooting

53.7%

54.9%

56.6%

53.5%

33.8%

38.0%

73.3%

69.4%

31.4%

28.0%

Ball control & glass

18.8%

18.6%

17.8%

15.9%

30.4%

37.5%

30.7%

28.8%

10.8%

10.3%

9.7%

10.0%

Style

49.4%

40.7%

42.0%

43.9%

14.0%

8.4%

53.8%

62.8%

36.9%

32.8%

Roster

3.58

2.82

6'4.3"

6'5.2"

93.2%

84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Robert Morris

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 77.0%

Lost

DeSean Goode 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Tanner O'Grady no D1 minutes last season
Vasilije Serafimoski no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Mar 4	2025-26	Youngstown St 53 – 68 Robert Morris
Sat, Feb 7	2025-26	Robert Morris 72 – 66 Youngstown St
Wed, Dec 17	2025-26	Youngstown St 77 – 80 Robert Morris

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.