CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHill Field House, Baltimore, MD

Mercyhurst

Efficiency #261

2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf

Morgan St

Efficiency #349

2025-26: 14-16 · 10-5 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

74.0

win 57%

Projected

72.1

win 43%

No line posted yet.

Model: MERC −1.9 · total 146.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Morgan St 70.3, Mercyhurst 66.5 → 68.5 possessions

+0.4

Morgan St offense vs Mercyhurst defense

−4.2

Mercyhurst offense vs Morgan St defense

+1.7

Projected total

146.1

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Morgan St offense vs Mercyhurst defense

−4.2

Mercyhurst offense vs Morgan St defense

−1.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Mercyhurst by 1.9

1.9

Mercyhurst side ◂▸ Morgan St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −2.0 against −1.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Morgan St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morgan St is the faster team (70.7, #64 of 365) and Mercyhurst the slower (64.6, #338). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.1

model

Projected team totals

74.0 / 72.1

Mercyhurst / Morgan St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#321

Mercyhurst

70.3#31

Morgan St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMorgan St

Where Morgan St struggles: shooting

Morgan St shoots an effective 45.8% (#351); Mercyhurst allows 50.1% (#107). Expect about 47.5%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.3 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMercyhurst

Style match: 3-point volume

Mercyhurst rarely shoots threes (31.1% of its shots); Morgan St runs teams off the line (31.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 27.8% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Morgan St averages 70.7 possessions per 40, Mercyhurst 64.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversMorgan St

Morgan St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Morgan St's offense.

ClashMorgan St

Style match: 3-point volume

Morgan St rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); Mercyhurst runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.3% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Morgan St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Mercyhurst at about 27.8% of its shots from three, Morgan St about 32.3%.

Mercyhurst has the ball

OffenseMorgan St allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #269

51.7% #194

-1.2 pt/100

14.3% #32

16.5% #184

+2.0 pt/100

26.4% #312

35.2% #341

-0.3 pt/100

25.6% #361

50.9% #363

+0.6 pt/100

74.1% #129

—

+0.1 pt/100

Mercyhurst net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Morgan St has the ball

OffenseMercyhurst allowsvs D1 avg

45.8% #351

50.1% #107

-5.3 pt/100

17.8% #260

18.7% #64

-2.2 pt/100

30.7% #172

29.9% #153

-0.0 pt/100

42.7% #22

42.6% #332

+1.0 pt/100

74.3% #113

—

+0.2 pt/100

Morgan St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurstoffense vsMorgan Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Mercyhurst shoots

33.8

11.3

23.5

31.3

Morgan St allows

48.0

4.8

15.6

31.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.5%#256	58.6%#168	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.7%#16	26.9%#5	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#43	44.9%#349	38.0%
Three	32.1%#276	31.5%#43	33.7%

Morgan Stoffense vsMercyhurstdefense

Share of shots by zone

Morgan St shoots

38.9

2.0

23.1

35.9

Mercyhurst allows

43.4

8.0

14.4

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.0%#340	57.8%#141	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#326	42.7%#245	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#289	33.3%#35	38.0%
Three	31.7%#295	32.3%#80	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Mercyhurst

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#278 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#312

Def reb %

70.1%

#153

Turnover %

14.3%

#32

Forced TO %

18.7%

#64

FT rate

25.6%

#361

FT allowed

42.6%

#332

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Morgan St

−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#335 of 365

Off reb %

30.7%

#172

Def reb %

64.8%

#341

Turnover %

17.8%

#260

Forced TO %

16.5%

#184

FT rate

42.7%

#22

FT allowed

50.9%

#363

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.0

Foul shots allowed−4.0

Mercyhurst has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.3 (#278 of 365) to Morgan St’s −4.3 (#335).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Morgan St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Lawson	G	Sr	5'11"	30-22	32.8	12.8	3.6	4.0	2.5	41.8%	29.3%	4.4	81.7%	27.0%
2	Elijah Davis	G	Sr	6'1"	26-26	34.9	13.8	3.3	5.9	2.6	45.9%	21.7%	0.9	72.5%	25.5%
0	Christian Meeks	G	Jr	6'6"	30-27	28.6	5.9	5.8	0.8	1.0	56.1%	22.2%	0.3	62.0%	11.9%
1	Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	28.5	17.4	3.8	1.1	2.0	49.5%	36.3%	7.4	88.5%	34.0%
55	Eugene Alvin	F	Jr	6'7"	29-14	19.3	7.3	3.6	0.4	0.8	53.7%	38.4%	2.5	60.3%	21.5%
52	Walter Peggs Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	28-6	19.3	8.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	50.7%	36.7%	4.6	81.6%	25.3%
21	Christian Oliver	C	Sr	6'10"	26-9	14.3	4.3	3.0	0.4	0.5	57.3%	22.2%	0.3	67.9%	16.6%
7	Marland Harris	F	Sr	6'9"	20-6	12.9	3.9	3.8	0.3	0.8	54.7%	—	0.0	69.0%	17.3%
4	David Bumpass	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	9.1	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	40.6%	16.7%	1.1	59.4%	24.4%
22	Manok Lual	F	Jr	6'9"	20-4	7.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	50.0%	20.0%	0.3	47.4%	16.6%
42	Dallas James	C	Sr	7'1"	21-9	6.4	1.6	1.5	0.0	1.2	50.0%	—	0.0	72.7%	23.4%
5	Matar Wade	F	So	6'8"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.8	0.2	0.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	11.3%
10	Breon Barnett	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	3.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	11.1%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.9%
13	Trent Edwards	F	Jr	6'8"	2-1	17.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	33.3%	17.0%
32	Jayden Socka	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	2.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	20.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Mercyhurst2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Bernie Blunt III	G	Sr	5'11"	34-34	30.9	17.6	3.1	2.2	1.3	49.8%	35.5%	5.9	86.5%	34.1%
11	Jake Lemelman	G	So	6'2"	34-34	30.0	13.9	2.5	3.2	1.7	50.2%	39.6%	4.5	86.4%	30.6%
7	Deshaun Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'2"	34-1	22.4	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.4	46.8%	0.0%	0.1	65.9%	20.6%
10	Christian Gamble	G	Sr	6'0"	34-33	21.1	3.9	1.6	2.1	0.6	44.6%	28.8%	2.1	73.1%	13.9%
5	Mykolas Ivanauskas	F	So	6'8"	32-31	19.6	7.4	5.1	0.4	1.1	57.9%	22.6%	1.0	58.6%	23.6%
1	Sean Lang	G	Sr	6'3"	32-0	13.4	0.8	2.4	1.0	0.3	26.6%	15.8%	0.6	62.5%	6.9%
3	Cameron Johnson	F	Jr	6'5"	33-4	12.2	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.6	44.9%	32.1%	0.8	75.0%	20.8%
15	Kaden Fuhrmann	G	Sr	6'5"	32-0	11.6	3.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	51.6%	31.3%	2.5	87.5%	18.6%
34	James Thomas	F	Sr	6'6"	33-0	9.6	1.4	2.0	0.4	0.3	48.8%	—	0.0	27.3%	12.2%
23	Or Faran	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	5.2	1.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	33.3%	28.6%	0.8	33.3%	20.8%
33	Vladimir Pavlovic	G	Jr	6'2"	8-0	4.4	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.6	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	23.4%
2	Brady Conner	G	Fr	6'6"	6-0	5.0	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.5	11.1%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	25.1%
13	Chris Leman	F	Fr	6'9"	6-0	4.3	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.3	43.8%	33.3%	0.5	0.0%	24.3%
21	Emilis Butkus	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Mercyhurst

Against the spread

Season

21-11

Home

9-4

Road

12-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-16

Home

7-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 70–79	+5.0	L−4.0	134.0	O149	105.7	119.3	66.2
Mar 7	StonehillAdjEM #320	H	W 56–51	−4.5	W+0.5	135.0	U107	85.4	77.8	65.6
Mar 4	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 70–61	−4.0	W+5.0	132.5	U131	108.0	94.2	64.8
Feb 28	StonehillAdjEM #320	A	W 75–72 OT	−2.5	W+0.5	138.5	O147	97.9	94.0	76.6
Feb 26	C ConnecticutAdjEM #277	A	L 78–80	+4.0	W+2.0	141.0	O158	114.7	117.7	68.0
Feb 21	Long IslandAdjEM #195	H	W 91–83	+3.5	W+11.5	141.0	O174	130.5	119.0	69.7
Feb 19	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	L 80–83 OT	−3.5	L−6.5	134.5	O163	107.3	111.4	74.5
Feb 14	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 94–79	−2.0	W+13.0	138.5	O173	137.0	115.1	68.6
Feb 12	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	L 57–58	+2.5	W+1.5	138.5	U115	82.7	84.2	68.9
Feb 7	FDUAdjEM #332	A	L 52–55	+2.5	L−0.5	131.0	U107	95.9	101.4	54.3

Morgan St

Against the spread

Season

15-12

Home

8-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-11

Home

6-6

Road

9-5

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +4.7

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	L 70–75 OT	−3.0	L−8.0	143.0	O145	93.1	99.8	75.2
Mar 5	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 70–66	−6.5	L−2.5	150.5	U136	101.7	95.9	68.8
Mar 2	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	W 90–84	+3.5	W+9.5	157.0	O174	119.4	111.4	75.4
Feb 28	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 59–84	+9.5	L−15.5	158.0	U143	81.9	116.6	72.0
Feb 25	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 90–83	−1.5	W+5.5	154.5	O173	123.4	113.8	73.0
Feb 21	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 82–68	−5.5	W+8.5	145.0	O150	111.8	92.7	73.4
Feb 16	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 76–80	+5.5	W+1.5	148.0	O156	104.3	109.7	72.9
Feb 7	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–71	+1.5	W+9.5	141.0	O150	118.0	106.1	66.9
Jan 31	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	W 89–80	−2.5	W+6.5	155.5	O169	117.4	105.5	75.8
Jan 26	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 79–78	+8.0	W+9.0	153.5	O157	103.8	102.5	76.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MercyhurstMorgan St

Efficiency

103.8

102.0

108.8

115.6

66.5

70.3

—

Shooting

49.5%

45.8%

50.0%

44.9%

32.1%

31.7%

74.1%

74.3%

25.6%

42.7%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

17.8%

18.7%

16.5%

26.4%

30.7%

29.9%

35.2%

7.7%

9.4%

6.3%

10.4%

Style

31.1%

35.2%

46.5%

37.2%

11.3%

18.3%

54.2%

52.2%

34.3%

32.6%

Roster

3.05

3.58

6'2.6"

6'4.3"

84.5%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Mercyhurst

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 78.6%

Lost

Qadir Martin 31.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Fairfield

Added

Emilis Butkus no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Morgan St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Morgan St 72 – 86 Mercyhurst

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.