CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCharles E. Smith Center, Washington, DC

Long Island

Efficiency #195

2025-26: 24-11 · 18-3 conf

G Washington

Efficiency #68

2025-26: 19-16 · 9-11 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

71.5

win 20%

Projected

81.2

win 80%

No line posted yet.

Model: GW −9.8 · total 152.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: G Washington 69.5, Long Island 68.6 → 69.8 possessions

+3.3

G Washington offense vs Long Island defense

+3.5

Long Island offense vs G Washington defense

−2.3

Projected total

152.7

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

G Washington offense vs Long Island defense

+3.5

Long Island offense vs G Washington defense

+2.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

G Washington by 9.8

9.8

Long Island side ◂▸ G Washington side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help G Washington.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, G Washington is the faster team (69.9, #97 of 365) and Long Island the slower (68.2, #190). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.7

model

Projected team totals

71.5 / 81.2

Long Island / G Washington

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#152

Long Island

69.5#83

G Washington

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

DefenseLong Island

Long Island's shot-blocking

Long Island ranks #16 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of G Washington's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

AdvantageG Washington

Where G Washington scores: the offensive glass

G Washington rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#26); Long Island lets opponents grab 33.0% of their own misses (#299). Expect about 35.5%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversG Washington

G Washington turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against G Washington's offense.

AdvantageLong Island

Where Long Island struggles: ball control

Long Island turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#318); G Washington forces turnovers on 17.7% of opponent possessions (#114). Expect about 18.6%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashLong Island

Style clash: 3-point volume

Long Island rarely shoots threes (29.3% of its shots); G Washington lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.6% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashG Washington

Style clash: 3-point volume

G Washington takes 47.0% of its shots from three; Long Island runs teams off the line (32.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Long Island has the ball

OffenseG Washington allowsvs D1 avg

52.8% #112

52.4% #234

+2.0 pt/100

18.9% #318

17.7% #114

-2.2 pt/100

33.9% #70

28.7% #91

+1.0 pt/100

34.0% #207

34.9% #178

-0.1 pt/100

66.7% #346

—

-0.5 pt/100

Long Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

G Washington has the ball

OffenseLong Island allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #55

50.0% #102

+1.7 pt/100

18.2% #282

18.8% #58

-2.6 pt/100

35.8% #26

33.0% #299

+3.1 pt/100

34.9% #184

34.7% #171

-0.0 pt/100

72.3% #194

—

-0.0 pt/100

G Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Long Islandoffense vsG Washingtondefense

Share of shots by zone

Long Island shoots

46.2

8.3

16.6

29.0

G Washington allows

37.6

5.4

13.8

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#133	62.2%#303	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#224	36.1%#92	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#162	34.3%#55	38.0%
Three	35.8%#67	33.9%#175	33.7%

G Washingtonoffense vsLong Islanddefense

Share of shots by zone

G Washington shoots

43.1

3.7

6.2

47.0

Long Island allows

43.8

6.1

16.9

33.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#138	55.3%#70	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	49.1%#350	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.6%#319	40.4%#256	38.0%
Three	35.1%#106	32.2%#72	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Long Island

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#172 of 365

Off reb %

33.9%

#70

Def reb %

67.0%

#299

Turnover %

18.9%

#318

Forced TO %

18.8%

#58

FT rate

34.0%

#207

FT allowed

34.7%

#171

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.1

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.1

G Washington

+2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#93 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#26

Def reb %

71.3%

#91

Turnover %

18.2%

#282

Forced TO %

17.7%

#114

FT rate

34.9%

#184

FT allowed

34.9%

#178

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.8

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.1

G Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.1 (#93 of 365) to Long Island’s +0.2 (#172).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Long Island2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Greg Gordon	G	Sr	6'5"	35-35	34.1	14.0	5.5	2.9	1.9	57.2%	20.7%	0.8	40.7%	25.1%
33	Jamal Fuller	G	Sr	6'5"	34-33	33.6	16.2	5.5	2.6	2.1	59.6%	43.0%	3.8	77.1%	26.4%
0	Malachi Davis	G	Sr	6'4"	35-34	30.9	14.0	3.5	3.4	2.8	46.1%	31.4%	4.0	62.1%	32.9%
1	Jomo Goings	G	Jr	6'5"	35-34	30.8	9.8	4.5	2.2	2.2	46.5%	36.3%	2.9	84.2%	21.9%
22	Shadrak Lasu	F	So	6'8"	33-33	22.9	5.2	5.4	0.4	0.8	56.9%	42.9%	0.6	63.8%	13.6%
6	Mason Porter-Brown	F	Jr	6'6"	35-6	20.0	7.8	3.2	0.6	1.0	57.1%	40.4%	2.7	71.3%	22.2%
3	Faheim Meran	G	Jr	6'6"	18-0	14.6	3.1	1.1	1.1	0.9	51.0%	36.7%	1.7	58.3%	15.4%
15	Caleb Johnson	F	Sr	6'7"	23-0	11.0	2.5	2.1	0.5	0.3	52.3%	0.0%	0.5	75.0%	13.9%
4	Tre'shawn Sheppard	G	So	6'6"	26-0	9.7	2.1	2.7	0.3	0.4	54.5%	33.3%	0.2	53.8%	14.0%
10	A.J. Neal Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	15-0	7.7	1.9	0.4	0.7	0.6	52.2%	50.0%	0.5	66.7%	17.2%
7	Isaiah Miranda	F	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.6	42.6%	15.4%	1.0	66.7%	31.3%
5	Max Ndlovu-Fraser	G	Fr	6'5"	7-0	7.9	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	35.7%	33.3%	0.4	—	11.7%
34	Xinyi Li	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	3.6	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.5	35.7%	33.3%	0.4	—	23.4%
14	Eddie Munyak	G	So	6'1"	2-0	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	17.8%
24	Gavin Pendergast	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

G Washington2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Trey Autry	G	Jr	6'4"	34-34	28.7	11.0	3.5	1.5	0.9	58.6%	38.5%	6.4	81.0%	19.6%
2	Christian Jones	G	So	6'4"	34-34	26.4	10.0	3.0	3.1	2.1	53.0%	36.4%	3.5	65.6%	24.5%
7	Jean Aranguren	G	Jr	6'3"	35-22	24.1	8.2	4.2	3.4	2.1	55.0%	36.5%	2.1	70.2%	21.6%
24	Tyrone Marshall Jr.	F	Sr	6'8"	33-13	23.5	8.8	4.6	2.0	1.6	56.7%	36.2%	1.8	65.4%	22.0%
3	Tre Dinkins	G	Sr	6'2"	35-1	21.1	8.8	1.7	1.8	1.2	54.2%	38.2%	5.8	80.0%	23.9%
9	Garrett Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	29-11	22.6	11.4	3.4	1.2	1.0	50.4%	33.1%	5.5	83.8%	29.0%
11	Bubu Benjamin	G	Jr	6'7"	30-18	20.4	5.8	2.7	1.0	0.7	47.1%	26.6%	3.1	70.3%	17.5%
32	Amir Arrington	G	Jr	6'0"	4-0	3.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	1.3	—	25.4%
21	Mohamed Binzagr	G	Sr	6'2"	4-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	0.0%	33.9%
10	Jalen Rougier-Roane	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Trey Moss	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	Vincent Chaudhri	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Long Island2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Greg Gordon	G	Sr	6'5"	35-35	34.1	14.0	5.5	2.9	1.9	57.2%	20.7%	0.8	40.7%	25.1%
33	Jamal Fuller	G	Sr	6'5"	34-33	33.6	16.2	5.5	2.6	2.1	59.6%	43.0%	3.8	77.1%	26.4%
0	Malachi Davis	G	Sr	6'4"	35-34	30.9	14.0	3.5	3.4	2.8	46.1%	31.4%	4.0	62.1%	32.9%
1	Jomo Goings	G	Jr	6'5"	35-34	30.8	9.8	4.5	2.2	2.2	46.5%	36.3%	2.9	84.2%	21.9%
22	Shadrak Lasu	F	So	6'8"	33-33	22.9	5.2	5.4	0.4	0.8	56.9%	42.9%	0.6	63.8%	13.6%
6	Mason Porter-Brown	F	Jr	6'6"	35-6	20.0	7.8	3.2	0.6	1.0	57.1%	40.4%	2.7	71.3%	22.2%
3	Faheim Meran	G	Jr	6'6"	18-0	14.6	3.1	1.1	1.1	0.9	51.0%	36.7%	1.7	58.3%	15.4%
15	Caleb Johnson	F	Sr	6'7"	23-0	11.0	2.5	2.1	0.5	0.3	52.3%	0.0%	0.5	75.0%	13.9%
4	Tre'shawn Sheppard	G	So	6'6"	26-0	9.7	2.1	2.7	0.3	0.4	54.5%	33.3%	0.2	53.8%	14.0%
10	A.J. Neal Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	15-0	7.7	1.9	0.4	0.7	0.6	52.2%	50.0%	0.5	66.7%	17.2%
7	Isaiah Miranda	F	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.6	42.6%	15.4%	1.0	66.7%	31.3%
5	Max Ndlovu-Fraser	G	Fr	6'5"	7-0	7.9	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	35.7%	33.3%	0.4	—	11.7%
34	Xinyi Li	F	Jr	6'9"	8-0	3.6	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.5	35.7%	33.3%	0.4	—	23.4%
14	Eddie Munyak	G	So	6'1"	2-0	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	17.8%
24	Gavin Pendergast	G	So	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Long Island

Against the spread

Season

18-17

Home

9-6

Road

9-10

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

6-9

Road

8-11

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +5.3

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#1ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 58–92	+30.5	L−3.5	148.0	O150	82.0	130.1	70.7
Mar 10	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	W 79–70	−5.0	W+4.0	134.0	O149	119.3	105.7	66.2
Mar 7	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	W 64–56	−6.5	W+1.5	139.0	U120	100.1	87.6	63.9
Mar 4	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 79–75	−11.0	L−7.0	138.0	O154	128.7	122.2	61.4
Feb 28	FDUAdjEM #332	H	W 74–60	−9.0	W+5.0	137.5	U134	117.6	95.3	62.9
Feb 26	Chicago StAdjEM #342	H	W 73–56	−11.5	W+5.5	140.0	U129	111.9	85.8	65.3
Feb 21	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	L 83–91	−3.5	L−11.5	141.0	O174	119.0	130.5	69.7
Feb 19	Saint Francis Red Wolves	A	W 91–89	−9.0	L−7.0	148.0	O180	118.2	115.6	77.0
Feb 16	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	W 83–65	−10.5	W+7.5	137.0	O148	130.1	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	New HavenAdjEM #326	A	L 52–55	−7.0	L−10.0	129.5	U107	84.1	88.9	61.8

G Washington

Against the spread

Season

15-17-2

Home

8-5-2

Road

4-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −2.6

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 61–86	+7.0	L−18.0	161.5	U147	89.2	125.8	68.4
Mar 18	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	A	W 79–78	+1.5	W+2.5	153.0	O157	114.5	113.1	69.0
Mar 13	Saint LouisAdjEM #20	N	L 81–88	+6.5	L−0.5	162.5	O169	108.8	118.2	74.4
Mar 12	FordhamAdjEM #170	N	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	141.0	U128	103.5	97.2	63.8
Mar 7	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	A	L 62–68	−9.5	L−15.5	148.0	U130	97.4	106.8	63.7
Mar 4	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 91–82 OT	−7.5	W+1.5	157.0	O173	115.1	103.7	79.1
Feb 27	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 66–68	−2.5	L−4.5	152.0	U134	98.7	101.7	66.9
Feb 24	La SalleAdjEM #256	A	W 104–77	−7.5	W+19.5	148.0	O181	143.5	106.3	72.5
Feb 17	VCUAdjEM #39	A	L 75–89	+6.0	L−8.0	161.5	O164	109.7	130.2	68.3
Feb 13	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 72–53	−3.5	W+15.5	150.0	U125	122.6	90.2	58.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Long IslandG Washington

Efficiency

106.8

114.2

107.8

107.0

68.6

69.5

—

Shooting

52.8%

54.4%

52.4%

55.9%

35.8%

35.1%

66.7%

72.3%

34.0%

34.9%

Ball control & glass

18.9%

18.2%

18.8%

17.7%

33.9%

35.8%

33.0%

28.7%

10.4%

11.4%

8.6%

10.3%

Style

29.3%

47.0%

51.9%

42.2%

19.4%

11.7%

50.2%

55.4%

24.1%

33.7%

Roster

3.38

3.11

6'5.5"

6'4.9"

—

78.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Long Island

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Long Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

G Washington

Returning minutes: 78.6%Returning production: 71.0%

Lost

Rafael Castro 22.6 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Luke Hunger 18.1 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
Ty Bevins 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Jalen Rougier-Roane no D1 minutes last season
Vincent Chaudhri no D1 minutes last season
Trey Moss no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.