CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UTBad Boy Mowers Series

Northwestern

Efficiency #78

2025-26: 15-19 · 7-16 conf

BYU

Efficiency #26

2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

74.2

win 33%

Projected

79.3

win 67%

No line posted yet.

Model: BYU −5.1 · total 153.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, Northwestern 66.9 → 68.4 possessions

+0.2

BYU offense vs Northwestern defense

+5.1

Northwestern offense vs BYU defense

0.0

Projected total

153.5

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

BYU offense vs Northwestern defense

+5.1

Northwestern offense vs BYU defense

0.0

BYU by 5.1

5.1

Northwestern side ◂▸ BYU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, BYU is the faster team (70.4, #80 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (65.3, #322). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.5

model

Projected team totals

74.2 / 79.3

Northwestern / BYU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.9#299

Northwestern

69.9#57

BYU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBYU

Where BYU scores: the offensive glass

BYU rebounds 34.3% of its own misses (#61); Northwestern lets opponents grab 34.7% of their own misses (#332). Expect about 35.2%, 4.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageNorthwestern

Where Northwestern scores: ball control

Northwestern turns it over on 13.0% of possessions (#7); BYU forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#196). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

BYU averages 70.4 possessions per 40, Northwestern 65.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashBYU

Style clash: ball movement

BYU creates off the dribble (assists on 45.0% of its baskets); Northwestern allows assists on 63.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 55.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashNorthwestern

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

Northwestern (#10 in shot-blocking exposure) against BYU (#55 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 9.8%. Historically BYU's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Northwestern has the ball

OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #159

51.2% #174

+0.3 pt/100

13.0% #7

16.4% #196

+2.9 pt/100

28.1% #260

29.6% #145

-1.2 pt/100

33.9% #213

28.9% #42

-0.5 pt/100

75.1% #80

—

+0.2 pt/100

Northwestern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

BYU has the ball

OffenseNorthwestern allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #54

51.0% #157

+2.4 pt/100

15.2% #80

17.5% #119

+0.5 pt/100

34.3% #61

34.7% #332

+2.9 pt/100

34.4% #198

34.8% #172

-0.1 pt/100

74.7% #94

—

+0.2 pt/100

BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Northwesternoffense vsBYUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Northwestern shoots

35.0

7.2

23.9

34.0

BYU allows

30.4

12.2

18.0

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.4%#47	61.2%#274	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#233	35.4%#70	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.6%#66	41.0%#276	38.0%
Three	33.0%#232	35.3%#269	33.7%

BYUoffense vsNorthwesterndefense

Share of shots by zone

BYU shoots

32.8

12.1

16.0

39.1

Northwestern allows

37.9

6.1

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.4%#17	60.5%#248	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.5%#164	33.6%#38	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.0%#26	38.8%#190	38.0%
Three	34.5%#145	33.4%#145	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Northwestern

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#140 of 365

Off reb %

28.1%

#260

Def reb %

65.3%

#332

Turnover %

13.0%

Forced TO %

17.5%

#119

FT rate

33.9%

#213

FT allowed

34.8%

#172

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+2.6

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+0.1

BYU

+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365

Off reb %

34.3%

#61

Def reb %

70.4%

#145

Turnover %

15.2%

#80

Forced TO %

16.4%

#196

FT rate

34.4%

#198

FT allowed

28.9%

#42

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+1.6

BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to Northwestern’s +0.9 (#140).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

BYU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Robert Wright III	G	So	6'1"	35-35	34.9	18.1	3.5	4.6	2.2	52.6%	41.0%	4.0	82.1%	29.6%
7	Khadim Mboup	F	Fr	6'9"	34-2	15.6	2.2	5.1	0.4	0.8	50.7%	16.7%	0.4	23.1%	11.6%
5	Mihailo Boskovic	F	Sr	6'10"	34-5	12.0	3.0	1.9	0.6	0.6	50.0%	28.3%	1.6	80.0%	16.1%
6	Aleksej Kostic	G	Fr	6'4"	27-5	12.0	4.4	0.9	0.4	0.6	52.4%	36.7%	3.3	87.5%	22.5%
2	Tyler Mrus	F	Jr	6'7"	26-0	10.0	2.1	0.9	0.3	0.2	45.8%	29.8%	1.8	90.9%	12.7%
34	Abdullah Ahmed	C	So	6'10"	20-1	12.2	1.3	2.6	0.3	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	41.7%	8.3%
24	Dominique Diomande	F	Fr	6'7"	23-0	7.6	2.0	1.3	0.1	0.2	48.6%	12.5%	0.7	62.5%	15.8%
25	Dawson Baker	G	Sr	6'4"	6-2	20.0	7.5	1.7	0.5	0.8	59.7%	47.4%	3.2	88.9%	19.2%
33	Xavion Staton	C	Fr	6'11"	9-0	5.0	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	7.4%
51	Jared McGregor	G	Sr	6'3"	7-0	1.1	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	42.4%
4	Brody Kozlowski	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	KJ Perry	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	Nate Pickens	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northwestern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Jayden Reid	G	Jr	5'10"	34-28	25.8	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.9	44.5%	31.7%	3.0	82.0%	28.3%
8	Tre Singleton	F	Fr	6'8"	34-31	25.0	7.6	4.8	1.5	1.0	50.0%	16.7%	1.6	73.8%	19.5%
44	Angelo Ciaravino	G	So	6'6"	33-18	22.0	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	54.6%	25.6%	1.3	58.3%	17.0%
3	Jake West	G	Fr	6'3"	33-17	21.8	5.3	0.8	2.8	1.0	49.4%	36.4%	2.3	77.4%	17.4%
22	Arrinten Page	F	Jr	6'11"	29-16	22.8	10.2	4.5	1.8	1.2	57.2%	25.0%	1.5	65.6%	26.2%
11	Jordan Clayton	G	Jr	6'2"	31-10	18.3	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	57.7%	41.0%	2.5	53.3%	12.9%
1	Tyler Kropp	F	Fr	6'9"	31-10	11.9	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.3	46.1%	27.3%	0.4	92.3%	16.6%
10	Max Green	G	So	6'6"	23-4	14.8	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.3	48.5%	33.8%	3.0	60.0%	19.5%
20	Justin Mullins	G	Sr	6'6"	24-3	13.5	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.6	53.2%	32.3%	1.3	50.0%	16.4%
24	K.J. Windham	G	So	6'3"	13-0	13.3	3.8	1.5	1.2	0.2	45.7%	33.3%	2.8	100.0%	17.8%
13	Phoenix Gill	G	Fr	6'2"	11-0	3.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	12.5%	0.0%	0.4	75.0%	18.6%
54	Gus Hurlburt	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	2.0	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	26.4%
43	Blake Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Northwestern

Against the spread

Season

18-16

Home

7-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.8

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 7 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-19

Home

8-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.5

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#18PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 68–81	+13.5	W+0.5	140.0	O149	114.4	136.3	59.4
Mar 11	IndianaAdjEM #45	N	W 74–61	+6.0	W+19.0	142.0	U135	121.9	100.5	60.7
Mar 10	Penn StateAdjEM #194	N	W 76–66	−5.0	W+5.0	144.5	U142	119.6	103.9	63.6
Mar 7	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	A	L 66–67	+4.0	W+3.0	133.5	U133	119.7	121.5	55.1
Mar 4	#15PurdueAdjEM #9	H	L 66–70	+10.5	W+6.5	145.5	U136	114.9	121.8	57.5
Feb 28	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 63–62	−3.5	L−2.5	142.5	U125	98.9	97.3	63.7
Feb 24	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	W 72–68	+8.5	W+12.5	146.0	U140	117.8	111.3	61.1
Feb 18	MarylandAdjEM #198	H	W 78–74	−8.0	L−4.0	142.5	O152	118.3	112.2	65.9
Feb 14	#7NebraskaAdjEM #17	A	L 49–68	+13.5	L−5.5	145.5	U117	76.0	105.5	64.5
Feb 11	#2MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 75–87	+15.0	W+3.0	153.5	O162	100.4	116.4	74.7

BYU

Against the spread

Season

16-19

Home

8-9

Road

3-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-17

Home

9-8

Road

6-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#11TexasAdjEM #38	N	L 71–79	−2.5	L−10.5	158.0	U150	106.0	118.0	67.0
Mar 12	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 66–73	+9.5	W+2.5	148.0	U139	95.3	105.4	69.3
Mar 11	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	N	W 68–48	−3.5	W+16.5	141.0	U116	108.5	76.6	62.6
Mar 10	Kansas StAdjEM #128	N	W 105–91	−11.0	W+3.0	168.5	O196	135.0	117.0	77.8
Mar 7	#10Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	W 82–76	−3.0	W+3.0	159.5	U158	134.6	124.8	60.9
Mar 3	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	A	L 68–90	+1.5	L−20.5	152.5	O158	94.8	125.5	71.7
Feb 28	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	A	L 71–79	−2.0	L−10.0	141.0	O150	112.3	124.9	63.2
Feb 24	UCFAdjEM #70	H	L 84–97	−13.5	L−26.5	161.5	O181	108.3	125.0	77.6
Feb 21	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 79–69	+3.0	W+13.0	155.0	U148	118.3	103.4	66.8
Feb 18	#4ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 68–75	+11.0	W+4.0	163.5	U143	102.8	113.4	66.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NorthwesternBYU

Efficiency

112.5

118.2

106.2

104.5

66.9

69.9

—

Shooting

51.7%

54.4%

52.9%

56.2%

33.0%

34.5%

75.1%

74.7%

33.9%

34.4%

Ball control & glass

13.0%

15.2%

17.5%

16.4%

28.1%

34.3%

34.7%

29.6%

7.3%

8.9%

6.4%

8.1%

Style

34.0%

39.8%

44.0%

45.4%

15.6%

65.8%

45.0%

31.7%

26.2%

Roster

2.14

2.08

6'4.9"

6'5.3"

82.8%

47.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Northwestern

Returning minutes: 82.8%Returning production: 74.0%

Lost

Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Blake Smith no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

BYU

Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%

Lost

AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.