CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameUniversity Center, Hammond, LA
Incarnate Word
Efficiency #264
2025-26: 12-19 · 7-15 conf
@
SE Louisiana
Efficiency #296
2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 2:00 PM ET
69.7
win 41%
Projected
72.3
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: SELA −2.6 · total 142.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: SE Louisiana 67.1, Incarnate Word 67.0 → 65.8 possessions
−5.6
SE Louisiana offense vs Incarnate Word defense
−0.9
Incarnate Word offense vs SE Louisiana defense
+0.2
Projected total
142.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
SE Louisiana offense vs Incarnate Word defense
−0.9
Incarnate Word offense vs SE Louisiana defense
−0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
SE Louisiana by 2.6
2.6
Incarnate Word side ◂▸ SE Louisiana side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.9 against a projected 142.0, and the margin steps add to +2.7 against +2.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SE Louisiana.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SE Louisiana is the faster team (65.6, #312 of 365) and Incarnate Word the slower (65.4, #318). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.0
model
Projected team totals
69.7 / 72.3
Incarnate Word / SE Louisiana
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.0#290
Incarnate Word
67.1#282
SE Louisiana
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
SE Louisiana averages 65.6 possessions per 40, Incarnate Word 65.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageIncarnate Word
Where Incarnate Word struggles: ball control
Incarnate Word turns it over on 17.2% of possessions (#215); SE Louisiana forces turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions (#46). Expect about 18.5%, 1.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Incarnate Word at about 38.1% of its shots from three, SE Louisiana about 36.8%.
Incarnate Word has the ball
OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg
50.2% #228
52.4% #233
-0.1 pt/100
17.2% #215
19.1% #46
-2.1 pt/100
32.1% #120
31.4% #225
+1.0 pt/100
34.0% #210
41.2% #314
+0.4 pt/100
71.2% #233
—
-0.1 pt/100
Incarnate Word net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100
SE Louisiana has the ball
OffenseIncarnate Word allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #343
54.5% #314
-1.4 pt/100
18.4% #291
15.7% #239
-0.3 pt/100
28.6% #245
32.0% #260
-0.3 pt/100
40.3% #56
41.6% #318
+0.8 pt/100
68.4% #318
—
-0.4 pt/100
SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersIncarnate Wordoffense vsSE Louisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
Incarnate Word shoots
38.3
5.1
18.1
38.4
SE Louisiana allows
38.3
5.0
19.5
37.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.3%#317 | 59.1%#195 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#312 | 46.7%#328 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.7%#195 | 36.9%#127 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#54 | 36.0%#301 | 33.7% |
SE Louisianaoffense vsIncarnate Worddefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Louisiana shoots
35.9
5.4
19.4
39.3
Incarnate Word allows
44.5
5.9
14.4
35.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#171 | 61.9%#298 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.8%#309 | 41.0%#208 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.1%#309 | 41.6%#292 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.4%#362 | 34.4%#214 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersIncarnate Word
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#293 of 365
Off reb %
32.1%
#120
Def reb %
68.0%
#260
Turnover %
17.2%
#215
Forced TO %
15.7%
#239
FT rate
34.0%
#210
FT allowed
41.6%
#318
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−1.6
SE Louisiana
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#245
Def reb %
68.6%
#225
Turnover %
18.4%
#291
Forced TO %
19.1%
#46
FT rate
40.3%
#56
FT allowed
41.2%
#314
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.5
SE Louisiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#200 of 365) to Incarnate Word’s −2.8 (#293).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Incarnate Word2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Davion Bailey | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 35.5 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 35.7% | 8.8 | 77.1% | 33.0% | |
| 10 | Harold Woods | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-24 | 30.3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.1% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 67.5% | 19.1% | |
| 7 | Jordan Pyke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-25 | 25.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.4% | 2.1 | 70.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Love Bettis | G | Sr | 5'11" | 30-8 | 17.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.0% | 1.4 | 84.6% | 18.7% | |
| 8 | Marcus Glover | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-20 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 70.3% | 13.2% | |
| 21 | Lewis Rowe | C | Sr | 6'10" | 26-9 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 46.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 12.1% | |
| 0 | Esteban Mann | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 44.1% | 20.3% | |
| 9 | Mihael Tomic | G | Fr | — | 22-3 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 11.0% | |
| 4 | Jayden Williams | C | So | 6'9" | 22-1 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 61.5% | 15.5% | |
| 99 | Amani Drummond | G | Sr | 6'1" | 19-0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 48.2% | 31.3% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Drew Barbee | F | So | 6'5" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 24.9% | |
| 93 | Tyler Simon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.9% | |
| 11 | Isaiah Kortas | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Jeremy Elyzee | F | So | 6'7" | 31-31 | 29.5 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 48.9% | 21.2% | 1.7 | 70.3% | 25.7% | |
| 23 | Isaiah Gaines | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-31 | 28.3 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 54.9% | 9.1% | 0.4 | 63.4% | 23.9% | |
| 1 | Makhi Myles | F | So | 6'7" | 31-18 | 21.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 50.5% | 34.3% | 3.3 | 82.8% | 22.7% | |
| 10 | Jaiden Lawrence | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-18 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 45.9% | 29.9% | 3.5 | 66.7% | 17.2% | |
| 4 | CJ Booker | PG | So | 5'10" | 30-22 | 20.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 45.4% | 39.7% | 1.9 | 72.2% | 17.3% | |
| 8 | Peter Hemschemeier | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-12 | 20.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 40.7% | 27.5% | 4.4 | 73.1% | 27.2% | |
| 3 | Ethan Pickett | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-21 | 17.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 44.4% | 16.0% | 0.8 | 68.4% | 21.4% | |
| 2 | Jalen Forrest | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-0 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 44.0% | 26.5% | 2.4 | 78.8% | 29.6% | |
| 5 | Kyle Edison | G | So | 6'3" | 25-2 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 43.8% | 23.1% | 1.6 | 64.9% | 25.4% | |
| 6 | Ubong-Abasi Etim | C | Sr | 6'9" | 31-0 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 51.5% | — | 0.0 | 16.7% | 12.1% | |
| 32 | Garrett Shoemaker | F | Fr | 6'9" | 24-0 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 51.5% | 29.4% | 0.7 | 35.7% | 20.5% | |
| 12 | Ahmed Essahaty | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-0 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 38.9% | 21.1% | 1.2 | 58.3% | 21.1% | |
| 7 | Seth Jones | G | Jr | 6'1" | 8-0 | 19.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 41.7% | 27.9% | 5.4 | 80.0% | 30.3% | |
| 11 | Amir Chaney | PG | Fr | 5'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Cody Al-Naziat | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Incarnate Word2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Davion Bailey | G | Sr | 6'4" | 30-29 | 35.5 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 49.4% | 35.7% | 8.8 | 77.1% | 33.0% | |
| 10 | Harold Woods | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-24 | 30.3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52.1% | 32.7% | 1.6 | 67.5% | 19.1% | |
| 7 | Jordan Pyke | F | Jr | 6'7" | 27-25 | 25.4 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57.1% | 40.4% | 2.1 | 70.7% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | Love Bettis | G | Sr | 5'11" | 30-8 | 17.0 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.0% | 1.4 | 84.6% | 18.7% | |
| 8 | Marcus Glover | F | Jr | 6'8" | 29-20 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 70.3% | 13.2% | |
| 21 | Lewis Rowe | C | Sr | 6'10" | 26-9 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 46.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 12.1% | |
| 0 | Esteban Mann | F | Jr | 6'7" | 22-3 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 44.1% | 20.3% | |
| 9 | Mihael Tomic | G | Fr | — | 22-3 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.2% | — | 0.0 | 78.6% | 11.0% | |
| 4 | Jayden Williams | C | So | 6'9" | 22-1 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 61.5% | 15.5% | |
| 99 | Amani Drummond | G | Sr | 6'1" | 19-0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 48.2% | 31.3% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 23.3% | |
| 22 | Drew Barbee | F | So | 6'5" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.4 | 75.0% | 24.9% | |
| 93 | Tyler Simon | F | Sr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 7.9% | |
| 11 | Isaiah Kortas | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Incarnate Word
Against the spread
Season
11-17
Home
5-7
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.9
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-14
Home
7-5
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +3.6
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | SF Austin | H | L 68–76 | +7.0 | L−1.0 | 143.5 | O144 | 113.0 | 126.2 | 60.2 |
| Feb 28 | Lamar | H | W 72–60 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 138.0 | U132 | 113.3 | 94.4 | 63.6 |
| Feb 23 | N'Western St | A | L 49–54 | +2.5 | L−2.5 | 138.0 | U103 | 81.6 | 89.9 | 60.1 |
| Feb 21 | East Texas A&M | A | W 82–73 | +4.0 | W+13.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 143.4 | 127.6 | 57.2 |
| Feb 16 | LSU N Orleans | H | L 64–78 | −2.0 | L−16.0 | 153.5 | U142 | 99.2 | 120.9 | 64.5 |
| Feb 14 | Nicholls | H | L 83–91 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 149.0 | O174 | 126.5 | 138.7 | 65.6 |
| Feb 9 | SE Louisiana | A | L 62–74 | +1.0 | L−11.0 | 137.5 | U136 | 101.5 | 121.1 | 61.1 |
| Feb 7 | McNeese | A | L 64–81 | +17.5 | W+0.5 | 146.0 | U145 | 103.1 | 130.5 | 62.1 |
| Feb 2 | Texas A&M-CC | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 140.5 | U140 | 108.1 | 105.1 | 65.7 |
| Jan 31 | UT Rio Grande | H | L 93–106 | +2.0 | L−11.0 | 141.0 | O199 | 129.3 | 147.3 | 72.0 |
SE Louisiana
Against the spread
Season
14-16
Home
5-6
Road
7-10
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −4.6
Covered the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-17
Home
6-5
Road
6-11
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.5
Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | LSU N Orleans | A | W 82–78 | +7.0 | W+11.0 | 144.0 | O160 | 110.2 | 104.8 | 74.4 |
| Feb 28 | Nicholls | A | L 60–68 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 140.0 | U128 | 91.8 | 104.0 | 65.4 |
| Feb 23 | Texas A&M-CC | H | L 68–73 | +2.0 | L−3.0 | 130.5 | O141 | 105.2 | 112.9 | 64.7 |
| Feb 21 | UT Rio Grande | H | L 75–96 | +4.0 | L−17.0 | 139.5 | O171 | 117.5 | 150.4 | 63.8 |
| Feb 16 | East Texas A&M | A | L 53–70 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 136.5 | U123 | 78.2 | 103.3 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | N'Western St | A | L 66–69 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 131.0 | O135 | 105.6 | 110.4 | 62.5 |
| Feb 9 | Incarnate Word | H | W 74–62 | −1.0 | W+11.0 | 137.5 | U136 | 121.1 | 101.5 | 61.1 |
| Feb 7 | Hou Christian | H | W 55–47 | −4.5 | W+3.5 | 133.5 | U102 | 97.4 | 83.2 | 56.5 |
| Feb 2 | Lamar | A | L 54–73 | +6.0 | L−13.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 89.0 | 120.3 | 60.7 |
| Jan 31 | SF Austin | A | L 58–85 | +9.5 | L−17.5 | 135.5 | O143 | 95.6 | 140.1 | 60.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIncarnate WordSE Louisiana
Efficiency
108.2
102.1
113.5
109.1
67.0
67.1
—
—
Shooting
50.2%
46.7%
47.7%
49.4%
36.1%
28.4%
71.2%
68.4%
34.0%
40.3%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
18.4%
15.7%
19.1%
32.1%
28.6%
32.0%
31.4%
9.3%
10.1%
9.8%
9.7%
Style
39.1%
39.5%
39.1%
43.8%
11.1%
12.2%
44.2%
51.6%
27.1%
37.4%
Roster
3.50
2.67
6'5.3"
6'5.1"
78.0%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIncarnate Word
Returning minutes: 78.0%Returning production: 73.1%
Lost
- Tahj Staveskie 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Harrison Reede 8.8 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
- Isaiah Kortas no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 78% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
SE Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Feb 9 | 2025-26 | Incarnate Word 62 – 74 SE Louisiana |
| Tue, Dec 30 | 2025-26 | SE Louisiana 70 – 79 Incarnate Word |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.