CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameViking Pavilion, Portland, OR
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
@
Portland St
Efficiency #145
2025-26: 20-11 · 14-6 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
69.3
win 36%
Projected
73.6
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: PRST −4.2 · total 142.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Portland St 68.6, Idaho 68.4 → 68.7 possessions
+0.8
Portland St offense vs Idaho defense
−2.9
Idaho offense vs Portland St defense
−3.2
Projected total
142.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Portland St offense vs Idaho defense
−2.9
Idaho offense vs Portland St defense
+3.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Portland St by 4.2
4.2
Idaho side ◂▸ Portland St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +4.3 against +4.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Portland St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Idaho is the faster team (69.1, #139 of 365) and Portland St the slower (69.0, #147). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.9
model
Projected team totals
69.3 / 73.6
Idaho / Portland St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#176
Idaho
68.6#157
Portland St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho struggles: the offensive glass
Idaho rebounds 28.4% of its own misses (#250); Portland St lets opponents grab 26.4% of their own misses (#23). Expect about 27.1%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPortland St
Style match: 3-point volume
Portland St rarely shoots threes (34.4% of its shots); Idaho runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.8% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantagePortland St
Where Portland St struggles: the offensive glass
Portland St rebounds 30.0% of its own misses (#199); Idaho lets opponents grab 24.2% of their own misses (#5). Expect about 27.1%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.
Idaho has the ball
OffensePortland St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
48.8% #56
-1.7 pt/100
15.0% #64
18.0% #95
+0.3 pt/100
28.4% #250
26.4% #23
-2.0 pt/100
34.6% #193
42.8% #337
+0.5 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100
Portland St has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #211
50.5% #128
-1.1 pt/100
16.9% #200
15.1% #283
+1.2 pt/100
30.0% #199
24.2% #5
-2.0 pt/100
37.1% #126
38.5% #273
+0.4 pt/100
71.0% #238
—
-0.1 pt/100
Portland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Idahooffense vsPortland Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
Portland St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24555.3%#6958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21639.4%#16939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18536.2%#11838.0%
Three34.1%#16832.3%#7733.7%
Portland Stoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland St shoots
Idaho allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.0%#23955.5%#7658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25743.7%#26339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24438.8%#19538.0%
Three32.6%#25035.2%#26433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Idaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Portland St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#153 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#199
Def reb %
73.6%
#23
Turnover %
16.9%
#200
Forced TO %
18.0%
#95
FT rate
37.1%
#126
FT allowed
42.8%
#337
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Both teams carry the same grade, +0.6 extra scoring chances per game.

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
12Jackson RasmussenFFr6'7"35-3531.013.64.71.31.953.4%32.1%3.168.3%26.3%
14Kolton MitchellGSo6'1"33-3230.413.73.33.81.650.3%36.3%6.179.7%26.5%
3Biko JohnsonGSr6'2"36-3527.712.33.82.41.845.5%30.8%5.572.5%29.3%
0Brody RowburyFSr6'11"36-3624.57.75.21.01.063.0%38.7%0.968.3%16.5%
7Jack PayneGJr6'6"34-2221.56.64.11.30.948.8%31.6%4.082.4%19.8%
5Isaiah BricknerGSr6'4"35-1320.511.93.90.91.255.6%41.1%3.276.0%31.9%
21Seth JobaFJr6'9"36-017.25.23.50.40.755.4%35.5%2.665.6%17.6%
1Trevon BlassingameGJr6'4"35-316.93.92.60.50.758.9%37.9%1.972.7%13.2%
24Miles KlapperGSo6'3"29-412.33.82.00.80.556.3%42.9%1.468.4%18.1%
4Aidan SevillaGSr6'0"20-06.72.01.00.80.448.5%28.6%0.788.9%19.5%
15Ewan SteeleFSo6'9"15-06.31.51.60.50.144.4%40.0%0.360.0%14.0%
10Kristian GonzalezGJr6'3"1-018.018.01.00.02.093.8%75.0%4.0100.0%35.7%
2Talon JenkinsGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Titus YearoutGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Tyler LinhardtFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
34Will JensonFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
IdahoPortland St
Efficiency
108.3
105.4
107.3
104.1
68.4
68.6
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
50.6%
51.6%
51.5%
34.1%
32.6%
72.6%
71.0%
34.6%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
16.9%
15.1%
18.0%
28.4%
30.0%
24.2%
26.4%
9.0%
9.5%
9.0%
7.4%
Style
47.0%
34.4%
39.4%
48.2%
9.2%
12.5%
44.6%
51.2%
31.4%
28.6%
Roster
2.88
3.32
6'5.2"
6'6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Idaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Portland St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Portland St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Feb 192025-26Idaho 67 – 77 Portland St
Sat, Jan 242025-26Portland St 69 – 66 Idaho

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.