CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameHawkins Arena, Macon, GA
Wofford
Efficiency #235
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Mercer
Efficiency #161
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
75.4
win 28%
Projected
82.2
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: MER −6.8 · total 157.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Mercer 69.3, Wofford 68.6 → 69.6 possessions
+2.8
Mercer offense vs Wofford defense
+4.7
Wofford offense vs Mercer defense
+1.9
Projected total
157.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Mercer offense vs Wofford defense
+4.7
Wofford offense vs Mercer defense
−1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Mercer by 6.8
6.8
Wofford side ◂▸ Mercer side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 157.6 against a projected 157.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Mercer.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Mercer is the faster team (69.5, #115 of 365) and Wofford the slower (68.4, #178). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.7
model
Projected team totals
75.4 / 82.2
Wofford / Mercer
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#156
Wofford
69.3#96
Mercer
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageMercer
Where Mercer scores: shooting
Mercer shoots an effective 53.1% (#98); Wofford allows 53.8% (#294). Expect about 53.6%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.4 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMercer
Mercer protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Mercer's offense.
AdvantageWofford
Where Wofford scores: ball control
Wofford turns it over on 13.4% of possessions (#13); Mercer forces turnovers on 17.0% of opponent possessions (#155). Expect about 15.0%, 1.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Wofford's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wofford at about 44.0% of its shots from three, Mercer about 38.3%.
Wofford has the ball
OffenseMercer allowsvs D1 avg
52.5% #127
52.5% #242
+1.9 pt/100
13.4% #13
17.0% #155
+2.2 pt/100
29.8% #212
33.2% #303
+0.6 pt/100
36.2% #144
29.7% #54
-0.3 pt/100
70.9% #243
—
-0.1 pt/100
Wofford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.2 pts/100
Mercer has the ball
OffenseWofford allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #98
53.8% #294
+3.4 pt/100
15.0% #69
14.9% #293
+2.6 pt/100
32.6% #102
29.0% #101
+0.5 pt/100
39.2% #74
36.8% #232
+0.4 pt/100
73.0% #167
—
+0.1 pt/100
Mercer net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWoffordoffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
Wofford shoots
42.3
3.4
10.8
43.4
Mercer allows
37.9
4.9
15.2
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.1%#233 | 55.1%#59 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.1%#118 | 37.2%#115 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.8%#266 | 44.8%#348 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#119 | 36.2%#311 | 33.7% |
Merceroffense vsWofforddefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
38.1
4.8
18.6
38.4
Wofford allows
45.8
3.6
12.9
37.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#106 | 56.2%#91 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.4%#94 | 48.3%#342 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#154 | 40.8%#271 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#87 | 36.4%#321 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWofford
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#124 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#212
Def reb %
71.0%
#101
Turnover %
13.4%
#13
Forced TO %
14.9%
#293
FT rate
36.2%
#144
FT allowed
36.8%
#232
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Mercer
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#41 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#102
Def reb %
66.8%
#303
Turnover %
15.0%
#69
Forced TO %
17.0%
#155
FT rate
39.2%
#74
FT allowed
29.7%
#54
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Mercer has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#41 of 365) to Wofford’s +1.4 (#124).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Wofford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Wofford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nils Machowski | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 33.7 | 17.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 38.2% | 7.4 | 79.0% | 28.9% | |
| 0 | Cayden Vasko | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 49.3% | 32.1% | 5.3 | 80.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Kahmare Holmes | G | So | 6'3" | 26-26 | 31.9 | 19.5 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 54.6% | 35.2% | 4.9 | 65.5% | 34.8% | |
| 4 | Chace Watley | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-15 | 24.8 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 45.8% | 30.6% | 3.1 | 76.7% | 24.8% | |
| 1 | Brian Sumpter | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-21 | 22.7 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 60.6% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 61.5% | 16.3% | |
| 2 | Luke Flynn | G | So | 6'1" | 21-18 | 26.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 45.6% | 33.8% | 3.7 | 75.8% | 13.6% | |
| 25 | Rex Stirling | F | Jr | 6'8" | 30-9 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 61.4% | 21.6% | |
| 5 | Brendan Rigsbee | G | Jr | 6'2" | 25-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 22.2% | 1.4 | 69.2% | 15.9% | |
| 8 | Jayden Tyler | G | Fr | 5'10" | 25-0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 60.6% | 47.5% | 2.4 | 53.7% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | Maximo Ortega | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 59.0% | 41.2% | 0.8 | 65.4% | 20.9% | |
| 32 | Callum Richard | C | Jr | 6'10" | 7-1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Cannon Richards | F | So | 6'7" | 2-1 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 27.8% | |
| 12 | Grayson Collins | G | So | 5'11" | 8-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.5% | |
| 14 | Davis Miller | G | Jr | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | — | 12.0% | |
| 9 | Alessandro Perotti | F | Jr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Wofford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Wofford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nils Machowski | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 33.7 | 17.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 54.2% | 38.2% | 7.4 | 79.0% | 28.9% | |
| 0 | Cayden Vasko | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 49.3% | 32.1% | 5.3 | 80.0% | 20.1% | |
| 11 | Kahmare Holmes | G | So | 6'3" | 26-26 | 31.9 | 19.5 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 54.6% | 35.2% | 4.9 | 65.5% | 34.8% | |
| 4 | Chace Watley | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-15 | 24.8 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 45.8% | 30.6% | 3.1 | 76.7% | 24.8% | |
| 1 | Brian Sumpter | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-21 | 22.7 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 60.6% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 61.5% | 16.3% | |
| 2 | Luke Flynn | G | So | 6'1" | 21-18 | 26.0 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 45.6% | 33.8% | 3.7 | 75.8% | 13.6% | |
| 25 | Rex Stirling | F | Jr | 6'8" | 30-9 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 61.4% | 21.6% | |
| 5 | Brendan Rigsbee | G | Jr | 6'2" | 25-5 | 15.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 54.3% | 22.2% | 1.4 | 69.2% | 15.9% | |
| 8 | Jayden Tyler | G | Fr | 5'10" | 25-0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 60.6% | 47.5% | 2.4 | 53.7% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | Maximo Ortega | G | Fr | 6'2" | 22-0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 59.0% | 41.2% | 0.8 | 65.4% | 20.9% | |
| 32 | Callum Richard | C | Jr | 6'10" | 7-1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 19.8% | |
| 7 | Cannon Richards | F | So | 6'7" | 2-1 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 27.8% | |
| 12 | Grayson Collins | G | So | 5'11" | 8-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.5% | |
| 14 | Davis Miller | G | Jr | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 0.2 | — | 12.0% | |
| 9 | Alessandro Perotti | F | Jr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Wofford
Against the spread
Season
15-15
Home
6-7
Road
9-7
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
6-7
Road
9-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +6.3
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | UNC Greensboro | N | L 72–75 | −5.5 | L−8.5 | 156.5 | U147 | 109.7 | 114.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 28 | The Citadel | H | L 90–93 OT | −12.0 | L−15.0 | 148.0 | O183 | 122.1 | 126.1 | 73.7 |
| Feb 25 | ETSU | A | W 72–69 | +7.0 | W+10.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 108.3 | 103.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 21 | Furman | H | L 67–76 | +1.5 | L−7.5 | 152.5 | U143 | 104.6 | 118.7 | 64.1 |
| Feb 18 | VMI | H | W 82–76 | −13.5 | L−7.5 | 158.5 | U158 | 119.0 | 110.3 | 68.9 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Greensboro | A | L 89–99 | −2.0 | L−12.0 | 155.5 | O188 | 126.8 | 141.1 | 70.2 |
| Feb 11 | Samford | A | L 80–97 | +6.0 | L−11.0 | 151.0 | O177 | 109.7 | 133.0 | 72.9 |
| Feb 7 | W Carolina | H | W 77–66 | −4.0 | W+7.0 | 154.0 | U143 | 112.0 | 96.0 | 68.7 |
| Feb 4 | VMI | A | W 81–67 | −9.0 | W+5.0 | 150.0 | U148 | 119.6 | 98.9 | 67.7 |
| Feb 1 | ETSU | H | L 72–86 | +1.5 | L−12.5 | 147.0 | O158 | 110.9 | 132.4 | 64.9 |
Mercer
Against the spread
Season
18-10-1
Home
8-3-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-14-1
Home
9-3
Road
5-10-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.4
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | W Carolina | N | L 73–77 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 114.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | ETSU | H | W 82–76 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 128.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | W Carolina | A | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 107.8 | 113.6 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | Samford | H | W 89–86 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O175 | 126.4 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | Chattanooga | H | L 90–94 | −10.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 138.6 | 144.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | The Citadel | A | W 70–54 | −12.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U124 | 113.6 | 87.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 11 | Furman | H | W 69–64 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 103.6 | 96.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 7 | Samford | A | L 49–69 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 161.0 | U118 | 74.5 | 104.9 | 65.8 |
| Feb 5 | Chattanooga | A | L 75–79 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 155.0 | U154 | 104.0 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Jan 31 | VMI | H | W 95–81 | −18.0 | L−4.0 | 153.5 | O176 | 130.7 | 111.4 | 72.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWoffordMercer
Efficiency
109.2
111.3
112.4
110.5
68.6
69.3
—
—
Shooting
52.5%
53.1%
52.5%
53.0%
35.0%
35.6%
70.9%
73.0%
36.2%
39.2%
Ball control & glass
13.4%
15.0%
14.9%
17.0%
29.8%
32.6%
29.0%
33.2%
8.1%
8.8%
9.5%
8.1%
Style
43.1%
39.2%
42.9%
40.9%
10.7%
16.3%
51.2%
46.2%
26.7%
26.8%
Roster
2.15
3.07
6'3.8"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWofford
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wofford's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Mercer
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Jan 24 | 2025-26 | Mercer 77 – 80 Wofford |
| Sat, Jan 10 | 2025-26 | Wofford 97 – 109 Mercer |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.