CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameBank of Colorado Arena, Greeley, CO
E Washington
Efficiency #189
2025-26: 14-19 · 12-8 conf
@
N Colorado
Efficiency #146
2025-26: 20-12 · 10-9 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
75.5
win 32%
Projected
81.0
win 68%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNCO −5.4 · total 156.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: N Colorado 69.1, E Washington 68.6 → 69.4 possessions
+2.3
N Colorado offense vs E Washington defense
+3.7
E Washington offense vs N Colorado defense
+2.3
Projected total
156.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
N Colorado offense vs E Washington defense
+3.7
E Washington offense vs N Colorado defense
−2.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
N Colorado by 5.4
5.4
E Washington side ◂▸ N Colorado side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Colorado.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Colorado is the faster team (70.0, #92 of 365) and E Washington the slower (68.9, #154). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.5
model
Projected team totals
75.5 / 81.0
E Washington / N Colorado
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#158
E Washington
69.1#115
N Colorado
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageN Colorado
Where N Colorado scores: shooting
N Colorado shoots an effective 55.7% (#24); E Washington allows 54.9% (#326). Expect about 55.7%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageE Washington
Where E Washington scores: ball control
E Washington turns it over on 17.7% of possessions (#251); N Colorado forces turnovers on 12.4% of opponent possessions (#363). Expect about 14.5%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashE Washington
Style match: 3-point volume
E Washington rarely shoots threes (34.7% of its shots); N Colorado runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.8% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (N Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Washington at about 32.8% of its shots from three, N Colorado about 40.8%.
E Washington has the ball
OffenseN Colorado allowsvs D1 avg
53.7% #75
50.1% #106
+1.2 pt/100
17.7% #251
12.4% #363
+2.8 pt/100
31.3% #153
24.2% #6
-1.5 pt/100
36.1% #148
38.8% #280
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #118
—
+0.2 pt/100
E Washington net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100
N Colorado has the ball
OffenseE Washington allowsvs D1 avg
55.7% #24
54.9% #326
+6.3 pt/100
15.4% #98
16.2% #211
+1.4 pt/100
27.2% #288
30.8% #194
-1.2 pt/100
27.5% #348
37.3% #246
-0.3 pt/100
75.8% #59
—
+0.3 pt/100
N Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersE Washingtonoffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
E Washington shoots
41.4
6.3
18.8
33.5
N Colorado allows
44.7
6.4
14.1
34.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#132 | 56.7%#107 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#105 | 33.9%#43 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.4%#21 | 46.7%#357 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.9%#62 | 30.7%#28 | 33.7% |
N Coloradooffense vsE Washingtondefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
39.8
8.7
10.1
41.4
E Washington allows
41.1
5.9
13.4
39.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.7%#42 | 60.5%#252 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#95 | 44.9%#294 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 48.3%#1 | 46.8%#358 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#121 | 35.2%#261 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersE Washington
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#231 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#153
Def reb %
69.2%
#194
Turnover %
17.7%
#251
Forced TO %
16.2%
#211
FT rate
36.1%
#148
FT allowed
37.3%
#246
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.5
N Colorado
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#328 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#288
Def reb %
75.8%
#6
Turnover %
15.4%
#98
Forced TO %
12.4%
#363
FT rate
27.5%
#348
FT allowed
38.8%
#280
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.9
E Washington has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#231 of 365) to N Colorado’s −3.8 (#328).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
E Washington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted E Washington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Isaiah Moses | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 33.4 | 17.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 53.1% | 41.3% | 4.8 | 93.4% | 30.8% | |
| 4 | Alton Hamilton IV | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-23 | 28.1 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 60.1% | 36.4% | 1.3 | 75.9% | 25.8% | |
| 15 | Kiree Huie | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-32 | 25.3 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 54.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 58.0% | 30.6% | |
| 12 | Straton Rogers | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-14 | 22.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 61.4% | 28.6% | 0.2 | 65.1% | 13.4% | |
| 22 | Jojo Anderson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-8 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 51.7% | 36.8% | 2.1 | 67.9% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Johnny Radford | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-11 | 18.8 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 49.2% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 20.9% | |
| 1 | Tyler Powell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-17 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 55.8% | 36.8% | 2.6 | 72.7% | 16.9% | |
| 33 | Emmett Marquardt | F | So | 6'9" | 30-11 | 15.9 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 35.8% | 2.7 | 86.4% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Elijah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-4 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38.9% | 19.0% | 1.4 | 75.0% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Cole Scherer | G | Fr | 6'2" | 29-12 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.9% | 24.3% | 1.3 | 71.4% | 20.7% | |
| 35 | Shaumba Ngoyi | F | So | 6'9" | 20-0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 12.9% | |
| 10 | Maddox Monson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 42.3% | 30.0% | 0.9 | — | 19.6% | |
| 0 | Angelo Winkel | F | Sr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 22.2% | |
| 55 | Alan Gballou | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Andrew Cook | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
N Colorado2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zach Bloch | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 59.2% | 42.9% | 6.8 | 79.2% | 18.3% | |
| 35 | Quinn Denker | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-30 | 34.3 | 19.2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 54.0% | 34.6% | 4.4 | 81.3% | 31.1% | |
| 14 | Brock Wisne | F | Sr | 6'9" | 31-31 | 32.0 | 16.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 60.4% | 33.8% | 2.6 | 71.3% | 27.7% | |
| 54 | Ibu Yamazaki | F | Jr | 6'7" | 32-30 | 27.1 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 36.2% | 5.4 | 90.9% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | Ring Nyeri | F | So | 6'8" | 32-24 | 25.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 59.2% | 35.3% | 2.1 | 62.2% | 17.8% | |
| 1 | Vincent Delano | G | So | 6'2" | 32-4 | 20.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 48.5% | 28.7% | 2.5 | 71.7% | 20.4% | |
| 33 | Egan Shields | C | So | 6'10" | 31-5 | 17.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 65.8% | — | 0.0 | 70.0% | 18.4% | |
| 3 | Ariik Mawien | G | So | 6'4" | 31-4 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 50.5% | 23.3% | 1.4 | 57.9% | 25.6% | |
| 10 | Tanner Braketa | G | Fr | 6'1" | 12-0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 64.0% | 38.1% | 1.8 | — | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Hunter Caldwell | C | So | 6'10" | 13-0 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 70.0% | 46.7% | 1.2 | — | 21.8% | |
| 11 | Chancellor White | G | Jr | 6'6" | 6-0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 1.7 | 88.9% | 30.0% | |
| 21 | William Humer | F | Sr | 6'10" | 4-0 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 40.9% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 0.0% | 20.7% | |
| 0 | Walker Asp | F | So | 6'8" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 13.1% | |
| 2 | Kaden Ericksen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Steven Ramirez Jr. | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Will Dixion III | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
E Washington2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted E Washington's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Isaiah Moses | G | Sr | 6'0" | 33-33 | 33.4 | 17.8 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 53.1% | 41.3% | 4.8 | 93.4% | 30.8% | |
| 4 | Alton Hamilton IV | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-23 | 28.1 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 60.1% | 36.4% | 1.3 | 75.9% | 25.8% | |
| 15 | Kiree Huie | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-32 | 25.3 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 54.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 58.0% | 30.6% | |
| 12 | Straton Rogers | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-14 | 22.0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 61.4% | 28.6% | 0.2 | 65.1% | 13.4% | |
| 22 | Jojo Anderson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-8 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 51.7% | 36.8% | 2.1 | 67.9% | 21.0% | |
| 21 | Johnny Radford | G | Sr | 6'1" | 33-11 | 18.8 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 49.2% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 20.9% | |
| 1 | Tyler Powell | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-17 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 55.8% | 36.8% | 2.6 | 72.7% | 16.9% | |
| 33 | Emmett Marquardt | F | So | 6'9" | 30-11 | 15.9 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 35.8% | 2.7 | 86.4% | 20.5% | |
| 5 | Elijah Thomas | G | Sr | 6'6" | 30-4 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 38.9% | 19.0% | 1.4 | 75.0% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Cole Scherer | G | Fr | 6'2" | 29-12 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 41.9% | 24.3% | 1.3 | 71.4% | 20.7% | |
| 35 | Shaumba Ngoyi | F | So | 6'9" | 20-0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 12.9% | |
| 10 | Maddox Monson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 11-0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 42.3% | 30.0% | 0.9 | — | 19.6% | |
| 0 | Angelo Winkel | F | Sr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 22.2% | |
| 55 | Alan Gballou | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Andrew Cook | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26E Washington
Against the spread
Season
19-13
Home
6-5
Road
12-6
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +7.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-13
Home
4-7
Road
13-5
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.5
Over 3 straightOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Idaho | N | L 68–81 | +2.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O149 | 95.1 | 113.2 | 71.5 |
| Mar 9 | Weber St | N | W 84–79 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 154.5 | O163 | 121.1 | 113.9 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | Idaho | H | L 81–85 | −3.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | O166 | 121.0 | 127.0 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | N Arizona | H | W 88–57 | −9.5 | W+21.5 | 147.0 | U145 | 138.6 | 89.7 | 63.5 |
| Feb 26 | N Colorado | H | W 82–72 | +1.0 | W+11.0 | 157.0 | U154 | 122.8 | 107.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | Portland St | A | W 67–55 | +6.0 | W+18.0 | 146.5 | U122 | 101.1 | 83.0 | 66.3 |
| Feb 19 | Sacramento St | A | W 102–94 | −3.0 | W+5.0 | 161.5 | O196 | 140.2 | 129.2 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | Weber St | H | W 84–66 | −3.0 | W+15.0 | 155.0 | U150 | 122.3 | 96.1 | 68.7 |
| Feb 12 | Idaho St | H | W 88–75 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.5 | O163 | 133.7 | 114.0 | 65.8 |
| Feb 7 | Montana St | A | W 72–71 | +5.0 | W+6.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 111.0 | 109.5 | 64.9 |
N Colorado
Against the spread
Season
15-14
Home
5-6
Road
9-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-12-1
Home
6-5
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
3-6-1
avg vs total −2.5
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9 | Montana | N | L 89–95 | −4.5 | L−10.5 | 152.5 | O184 | 119.3 | 127.4 | 74.6 |
| Mar 2 | Montana | H | W 85–57 | −5.5 | W+22.5 | 155.0 | U142 | 116.0 | 77.8 | 73.3 |
| Feb 28 | Idaho | A | W 76–67 | +2.0 | W+11.0 | 156.0 | U143 | 113.4 | 100.0 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | E Washington | A | L 72–82 | −1.0 | L−11.0 | 157.0 | U154 | 107.8 | 122.8 | 66.8 |
| Feb 21 | N Arizona | H | W 78–77 | −12.5 | L−11.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 117.1 | 115.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Portland St | H | W 77–65 | −3.5 | W+8.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 111.5 | 94.1 | 69.1 |
| Feb 12 | Sacramento St | H | W 95–79 | −10.5 | W+5.5 | 165.0 | O174 | 119.6 | 99.4 | 79.4 |
| Feb 7 | Idaho St | A | W 69–61 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 151.5 | U130 | 106.6 | 94.3 | 64.7 |
| Feb 5 | Weber St | A | W 88–74 | −1.5 | W+12.5 | 162.0 | P162 | 130.2 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
| Jan 31 | E Washington | H | W 74–71 | −5.5 | L−2.5 | 156.5 | U145 | 109.6 | 105.2 | 67.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeE WashingtonN Colorado
Efficiency
110.8
110.7
111.6
109.4
68.6
69.1
—
—
Shooting
53.7%
55.7%
53.6%
58.1%
35.9%
35.0%
74.3%
75.8%
36.1%
27.5%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
15.4%
16.2%
12.4%
31.3%
27.2%
30.8%
24.2%
10.6%
8.6%
7.9%
7.2%
Style
34.7%
41.5%
44.2%
47.9%
9.8%
8.2%
49.0%
53.3%
37.4%
26.0%
Roster
3.59
3.08
6'4.6"
6'5.6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputE Washington
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted E Washington's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
N Colorado
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Feb 26 | 2025-26 | N Colorado 72 – 82 E Washington |
| Sat, Jan 31 | 2025-26 | E Washington 71 – 74 N Colorado |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.