CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceReilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY

FAU

Efficiency #122

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

St Bonaventure

Efficiency #138

2025-26: 17-17 · 6-15 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · 2:00 PM ET

75.1

win 38%

Projected

78.6

win 62%

No line posted yet.

Model: SBU −3.5 · total 153.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: St Bonaventure 68.2, FAU 69.9 → 69.7 possessions

+3.0

St Bonaventure offense vs FAU defense

+1.0

FAU offense vs St Bonaventure defense

+1.5

Projected total

153.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

St Bonaventure offense vs FAU defense

+1.0

FAU offense vs St Bonaventure defense

−1.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

St Bonaventure by 3.5

3.5

FAU side ◂▸ St Bonaventure side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St Bonaventure.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FAU is the faster team (70.2, #85 of 365) and St Bonaventure the slower (67.5, #222). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.7

model

Projected team totals

75.1 / 78.6

FAU / St Bonaventure

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#58

FAU

68.2#194

St Bonaventure

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashSt Bonaventure

Style match: 3-point volume

St Bonaventure rarely shoots threes (31.3% of its shots); FAU runs teams off the line (35.2% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 30.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageFAU

Where FAU scores: shooting

FAU shoots an effective 52.2% (#135); St Bonaventure allows 53.3% (#278). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

ClashSt Bonaventure

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

St Bonaventure (#58 in shot-blocking exposure) against FAU (#20 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.6%. Historically FAU's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (St Bonaventure) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect FAU at about 39.2% of its shots from three, St Bonaventure about 30.2%.

ClashFAU

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

FAU (#32 in shot-blocking exposure) against St Bonaventure (#24 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.1%. Historically St Bonaventure's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

FAU has the ball

OffenseSt Bonaventure allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #135

53.3% #278

+2.2 pt/100

17.6% #242

17.1% #146

-0.8 pt/100

31.6% #140

29.8% #150

+0.3 pt/100

33.3% #231

33.9% #147

-0.2 pt/100

70.3% #262

—

-0.2 pt/100

FAU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100

St Bonaventure has the ball

OffenseFAU allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #129

49.5% #81

-0.3 pt/100

16.8% #191

15.5% #251

+1.0 pt/100

34.5% #60

28.3% #78

+1.1 pt/100

30.0% #310

36.2% #215

-0.2 pt/100

74.7% #98

—

+0.2 pt/100

St Bonaventure net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

FAUoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense

Share of shots by zone

FAU shoots

39.6

6.3

16.2

38.0

St Bonaventure allows

39.8

5.3

14.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.5%#110	57.6%#135	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.8%#179	31.9%#21	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#121	45.6%#353	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	36.0%#299	33.7%

St Bonaventureoffense vsFAUdefense

Share of shots by zone

St Bonaventure shoots

38.1

8.8

22.0

31.1

FAU allows

45.4

6.8

12.9

34.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.2%#186	53.7%#37	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.6%#71	40.9%#207	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#163	34.5%#62	38.0%
Three	37.4%#22	33.8%#169	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

FAU

−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#229 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#140

Def reb %

71.7%

#78

Turnover %

17.6%

#242

Forced TO %

15.5%

#251

FT rate

33.3%

#231

FT allowed

36.2%

#215

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−0.2

St Bonaventure

+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#147 of 365

Off reb %

34.5%

#60

Def reb %

70.2%

#150

Turnover %

16.8%

#191

Forced TO %

17.1%

#146

FT rate

30.0%

#310

FT allowed

33.9%

#147

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security0.0

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.3

St Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.8 (#147 of 365) to FAU’s −1.0 (#229).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

FAU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Isaiah Elohim	G	So	6'5"	32-32	28.1	12.4	4.2	1.0	0.9	52.7%	36.8%	3.3	66.0%	24.4%
18	Kanaan Carlyle	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	31.1	14.3	3.8	2.9	2.5	49.8%	32.4%	6.4	85.4%	28.8%
25	Niccolo Moretti	G	Jr	6'1"	33-14	26.2	5.6	2.0	3.3	1.9	50.7%	26.7%	1.4	67.2%	15.5%
1	Devin Williams	F	So	6'10"	33-33	23.8	7.5	5.2	1.3	1.3	54.8%	30.6%	1.5	67.4%	19.0%
22	Devin Vanterpool	G	So	6'4"	24-24	31.2	15.8	6.3	2.4	2.1	52.5%	35.1%	6.2	78.2%	29.4%
11	Josiah Parker	G	Fr	6'7"	32-8	21.8	9.6	6.0	1.2	1.3	51.7%	16.0%	0.8	61.6%	26.6%
17	Xander Pintelon	F	Jr	6'11"	33-25	18.2	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.8	51.5%	35.2%	3.2	85.4%	19.9%
3	Amar Amkou	G	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.7	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.7	52.0%	36.4%	1.7	79.2%	24.7%
77	Maxim Logue	F	So	6'9"	28-0	11.2	4.8	3.1	0.0	0.6	67.4%	0.0%	0.1	42.9%	22.1%
5	Yohann Sissoko	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	11.2	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.9	47.7%	42.9%	0.8	75.7%	19.9%
9	Max Langenfeld	G	Fr	6'6"	16-1	8.2	3.5	0.9	0.5	0.5	48.1%	27.3%	2.8	66.7%	26.9%
8	Vincent Neugebauer	C	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.4	65.0%	—	0.0	53.8%	17.2%
4	Liam Dayco-Green	G	Fr	6'2"	8-0	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.3	57.7%	45.5%	1.4	50.0%	34.3%
30	Lachlan Smith	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	52.1%
7	Zion Sampaio	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St Bonaventure2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Darryl Simmons II	G	Jr	5'11"	34-33	35.5	16.4	1.9	2.8	1.4	54.5%	42.5%	6.5	89.9%	26.2%
00	Frank Mitchell	F	Sr	6'8"	34-33	33.6	16.3	10.2	2.8	2.7	55.6%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	30.1%
5	Dasonte Bowen	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	34.3	10.9	3.0	4.8	2.1	44.2%	32.7%	1.7	85.2%	22.1%
24	Cayden Charles	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	33.3	12.9	6.6	2.1	1.5	48.6%	32.6%	2.6	79.4%	23.3%
3	Daniel Egbuniwe	F	Sr	6'7"	31-19	23.1	8.2	3.2	1.1	1.1	54.3%	39.7%	3.9	74.0%	21.3%
32	Joe Grahovac	F	So	6'10"	34-14	18.3	4.5	3.0	0.8	0.7	56.9%	36.4%	1.9	87.5%	14.8%
20	Achille Lonati	G	Fr	6'5"	29-1	8.1	2.5	0.8	0.7	0.3	46.4%	25.5%	1.8	61.5%	21.9%
2	Amar'e Marshall	G	Sr	6'4"	11-0	13.2	4.7	1.9	1.4	0.7	56.1%	33.3%	1.6	60.0%	21.8%
1	Ilia Ermakov	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	11.1	2.9	1.1	1.2	1.2	59.1%	42.9%	1.6	0.0%	20.0%
30	Broek Ostrom	G	Sr	6'2"	4-1	3.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	0.5	0.0%	29.7%
15	Jack DeRose	G	Jr	6'0"	3-0	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	75.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	39.7%
21	Xander Wedlow	C	So	6'10"	2-0	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	29.1%
7	Brayden Jackson	G	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
4	John Ikpotokin	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

FAU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Isaiah Elohim	G	So	6'5"	32-32	28.1	12.4	4.2	1.0	0.9	52.7%	36.8%	3.3	66.0%	24.4%
18	Kanaan Carlyle	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	31.1	14.3	3.8	2.9	2.5	49.8%	32.4%	6.4	85.4%	28.8%
25	Niccolo Moretti	G	Jr	6'1"	33-14	26.2	5.6	2.0	3.3	1.9	50.7%	26.7%	1.4	67.2%	15.5%
1	Devin Williams	F	So	6'10"	33-33	23.8	7.5	5.2	1.3	1.3	54.8%	30.6%	1.5	67.4%	19.0%
22	Devin Vanterpool	G	So	6'4"	24-24	31.2	15.8	6.3	2.4	2.1	52.5%	35.1%	6.2	78.2%	29.4%
11	Josiah Parker	G	Fr	6'7"	32-8	21.8	9.6	6.0	1.2	1.3	51.7%	16.0%	0.8	61.6%	26.6%
17	Xander Pintelon	F	Jr	6'11"	33-25	18.2	6.2	3.7	0.7	0.8	51.5%	35.2%	3.2	85.4%	19.9%
3	Amar Amkou	G	Fr	6'7"	26-1	12.7	5.5	2.2	0.4	0.7	52.0%	36.4%	1.7	79.2%	24.7%
77	Maxim Logue	F	So	6'9"	28-0	11.2	4.8	3.1	0.0	0.6	67.4%	0.0%	0.1	42.9%	22.1%
5	Yohann Sissoko	G	Fr	6'5"	27-0	11.2	3.3	1.7	1.1	0.9	47.7%	42.9%	0.8	75.7%	19.9%
9	Max Langenfeld	G	Fr	6'6"	16-1	8.2	3.5	0.9	0.5	0.5	48.1%	27.3%	2.8	66.7%	26.9%
8	Vincent Neugebauer	C	Jr	7'1"	13-0	8.1	2.5	1.6	0.2	0.4	65.0%	—	0.0	53.8%	17.2%
4	Liam Dayco-Green	G	Fr	6'2"	8-0	3.1	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.3	57.7%	45.5%	1.4	50.0%	34.3%
30	Lachlan Smith	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	1.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	52.1%
7	Zion Sampaio	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

FAU

Against the spread

Season

17-14

Home

8-5

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −2.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

6-7

Road

9-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	North TexasAdjEM #151	N	L 70–74	+1.5	L−2.5	137.0	O144	97.8	103.4	71.5
Mar 11	TempleAdjEM #168	N	W 63–59	+1.0	W+5.0	144.5	U122	97.4	91.3	64.7
Mar 7	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	L 70–88	+8.0	L−10.0	149.0	O158	99.9	125.5	70.1
Mar 1	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 77–76 OT	−7.0	L−6.0	148.0	O153	106.2	104.9	72.5
Feb 26	TempleAdjEM #168	H	W 77–73	−4.5	L−0.5	146.0	O150	120.2	114.0	64.0
Feb 22	North TexasAdjEM #151	A	L 72–73	+2.5	W+1.5	140.5	O145	112.1	113.7	64.2
Feb 18	UTSAAdjEM #350	A	W 60–52	−11.5	L−3.5	157.5	U112	88.7	76.9	67.6
Feb 15	South FloridaAdjEM #36	H	L 81–83 OT	+5.0	W+3.0	166.5	U164	105.7	108.3	76.6
Feb 11	RiceAdjEM #255	A	L 73–81	−3.5	L−11.5	151.5	O154	104.8	116.2	69.7
Feb 4	TulsaAdjEM #46	H	L 76–78	+2.5	W+0.5	163.5	U154	105.4	108.2	72.1

St Bonaventure

Against the spread

Season

12-20-1

Home

3-12

Road

6-5

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −0.6

Covered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

19-13-1

Home

10-4-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +4.5

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	L 63–68	+5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	95.7	103.3	65.8
Mar 12	George MasonAdjEM #83	N	W 63–57	+2.5	W+8.5	142.5	U120	103.5	93.7	60.9
Mar 11	La SalleAdjEM #256	N	W 99–80	−5.5	W+13.5	145.5	O179	138.9	112.3	71.3
Mar 7	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	L 63–68	−5.0	L−10.0	142.0	U131	98.2	106.0	64.2
Mar 4	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 82–91 OT	+7.5	L−1.5	157.0	O173	103.7	115.1	79.1
Feb 28	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	L 58–71	+3.5	L−9.5	147.0	U129	97.9	119.8	59.3
Feb 26	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	H	W 94–76	−3.0	W+15.0	143.0	O170	134.7	108.9	69.8
Feb 21	RichmondAdjEM #150	A	L 94–99	+1.0	L−4.0	148.5	O193	128.0	134.8	73.4
Feb 18	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 65–71	−5.0	L−11.0	147.5	U136	93.5	102.1	69.5
Feb 14	DuquesneAdjEM #131	H	L 73–78	−2.0	L−7.0	152.5	U151	105.8	113.0	69.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

FAUSt Bonaventure

Efficiency

109.1

111.7

106.7

110.0

69.9

68.2

—

Shooting

52.2%

52.4%

53.6%

50.8%

33.3%

37.4%

70.3%

74.7%

33.3%

30.0%

Ball control & glass

17.6%

16.8%

15.5%

17.1%

31.6%

34.5%

28.3%

29.8%

10.6%

9.4%

7.5%

8.0%

Style

38.2%

31.3%

45.6%

46.6%

15.6%

17.3%

47.1%

55.2%

32.3%

21.8%

Roster

2.14

3.46

6'5.9"

6'4.2"

—

94.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

FAU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted FAU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

St Bonaventure

Returning minutes: 94.2%Returning production: 92.5%

Lost

Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

John Ikpotokin no D1 minutes last season
Brayden Jackson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 30	2025-26	St Bonaventure 70 – 65 FAU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.