CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceFirestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA
FGCU
Efficiency #246
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
@
Pepperdine
Efficiency #307
2025-26: 9-23 · 4-15 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
74.4
win 46%
Projected
75.4
win 54%
No line posted yet.
Model: PEPP −1.0 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Pepperdine 69.0, FGCU 68.5 → 69.2 possessions
+1.8
Pepperdine offense vs FGCU defense
−1.6
FGCU offense vs Pepperdine defense
+1.4
Projected total
149.8
Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Pepperdine offense vs FGCU defense
−1.6
FGCU offense vs Pepperdine defense
−1.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Pepperdine by 1.0
1.0
FGCU side ◂▸ Pepperdine side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Pepperdine.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Pepperdine is the faster team (69.5, #116 of 365) and FGCU the slower (69.1, #142). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.8
model
Projected team totals
74.4 / 75.4
FGCU / Pepperdine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.5#167
FGCU
69.0#124
Pepperdine
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFGCU
Where FGCU scores: shooting
FGCU shoots an effective 52.0% (#147); Pepperdine allows 54.2% (#306). Expect about 53.2%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.
FGCU has the ball
OffensePepperdine allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #147
54.2% #306
+2.7 pt/100
15.9% #131
16.5% #182
+0.8 pt/100
31.1% #161
34.0% #318
+1.4 pt/100
29.1% #331
28.5% #35
-0.8 pt/100
72.1% #207
—
-0.0 pt/100
FGCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100
Pepperdine has the ball
OffenseFGCU allowsvs D1 avg
47.6% #323
53.4% #280
-1.5 pt/100
18.3% #289
16.5% #183
-0.9 pt/100
29.1% #234
28.2% #73
-1.2 pt/100
33.8% #216
38.3% #268
+0.2 pt/100
75.8% #58
—
+0.3 pt/100
Pepperdine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersFGCUoffense vsPepperdinedefense
Share of shots by zone
FGCU shoots
36.9
4.9
19.8
38.3
Pepperdine allows
41.8
6.8
11.5
39.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.2%#89 | 60.5%#252 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.0%#171 | 49.1%#349 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#55 | 39.6%#224 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.2%#219 | 35.5%#276 | 33.7% |
Pepperdineoffense vsFGCUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Pepperdine shoots
35.6
6.6
18.0
39.7
FGCU allows
39.0
5.4
10.0
45.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.0%#298 | 59.6%#212 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.2%#170 | 39.8%#188 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.5%#252 | 37.6%#147 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#310 | 35.4%#275 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersFGCU
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365
Off reb %
31.1%
#161
Def reb %
71.8%
#73
Turnover %
15.9%
#131
Forced TO %
16.5%
#183
FT rate
29.1%
#331
FT allowed
38.3%
#268
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Pepperdine
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
29.1%
#234
Def reb %
66.0%
#318
Turnover %
18.3%
#289
Forced TO %
16.5%
#182
FT rate
33.8%
#216
FT allowed
28.5%
#35
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+1.7
FGCU has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#221 of 365) to Pepperdine’s −1.3 (#245).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
FGCU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahmir Barno | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-34 | 31.6 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 48.2% | 31.0% | 1.7 | 65.3% | 24.5% | |
| 20 | J.R. Konieczny | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-28 | 31.6 | 15.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 50.1% | 32.6% | 4.5 | 73.2% | 30.0% | |
| 7 | Jordan Ellerbee | G | Fr | 6'2" | 34-24 | 27.0 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 54.6% | 35.3% | 4.6 | 73.4% | 28.3% | |
| 15 | Michael Duax | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-31 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 56.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 72.0% | 18.6% | |
| 32 | Isaiah Malone | F | Jr | 6'8" | 34-27 | 22.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 61.8% | 44.0% | 0.7 | 78.2% | 24.4% | |
| 6 | Rory Stewart | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-7 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.3% | 32.1% | 5.5 | 64.7% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Darren Williams | G | So | 6'4" | 34-10 | 18.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 50.5% | 35.7% | 4.1 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Tristen Guillouette | C | So | 6'10" | 29-7 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 53.0% | — | 0.0 | 63.6% | 15.1% | |
| 0 | Jack Reddick | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 42.9% | 22.4% | 1.5 | 63.2% | 17.8% | |
| 3 | Gabe Tanner | F | Fr | 6'4" | 15-0 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 50.0% | 19.4% | |
| 10 | George Washington III | G | Jr | 6'2" | 14-2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 2.9 | 100.0% | 29.8% | |
| 4 | Matt McCarthy | G | Fr | 6'3" | 13-0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 42.9% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 13.6% | |
| 31 | Brandon Dwyer | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 1.0 | — | 23.8% | |
| 8 | BB Washington | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Chase Konieczny | F | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Evan Barlow | F | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Pepperdine2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Styles Phipps | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 34.0 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 45.1% | 27.0% | 2.3 | 78.5% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Aaron Clark | G | So | 6'4" | 32-26 | 32.3 | 15.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 50.0% | 36.1% | 5.2 | 76.9% | 29.9% | |
| 23 | Javon Cooley | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-27 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 48.0% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 83.2% | 23.3% | |
| 35 | Danilo Dozic | C | So | 6'10" | 27-26 | 31.3 | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52.2% | 36.3% | 4.6 | 77.0% | 21.3% | |
| 18 | Yonatan Levy | F | So | 6'10" | 32-28 | 20.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 51.1% | 31.9% | 1.5 | 76.2% | 17.3% | |
| 4 | Pavle Stosic | F | So | 6'9" | 31-12 | 16.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 48.9% | 20.0% | 0.8 | 54.3% | 15.2% | |
| 14 | Stefan Cicic | C | Fr | 7'0" | 31-5 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 54.6% | 23.1% | 0.4 | 55.8% | 22.4% | |
| 77 | Luka Vudragovic | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-4 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 45.3% | 24.6% | 2.2 | 84.6% | 21.3% | |
| 1 | David Mager | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-0 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 49.2% | 39.2% | 1.6 | 70.8% | 24.1% | |
| 33 | Nikola Radovanovic | F | Fr | 6'9" | 17-0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 53.6% | 25.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 16.0% | |
| 7 | Vladimir Sudar | F | Fr | 6'5" | 17-0 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 28.1% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 66.7% | 20.2% | |
| 9 | Pasha Shemirani | F | Fr | 6'5" | 17-0 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 34.6% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 11.6% | |
| 24 | Preston Phillips | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 11.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 6.7% | |
| 25 | Anto Balian | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Ty Virgil | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Yassine Gharram | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
FGCU2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahmir Barno | G | Jr | 6'0" | 34-34 | 31.6 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 48.2% | 31.0% | 1.7 | 65.3% | 24.5% | |
| 20 | J.R. Konieczny | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-28 | 31.6 | 15.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 50.1% | 32.6% | 4.5 | 73.2% | 30.0% | |
| 7 | Jordan Ellerbee | G | Fr | 6'2" | 34-24 | 27.0 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 54.6% | 35.3% | 4.6 | 73.4% | 28.3% | |
| 15 | Michael Duax | F | Sr | 6'5" | 34-31 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 56.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 72.0% | 18.6% | |
| 32 | Isaiah Malone | F | Jr | 6'8" | 34-27 | 22.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 61.8% | 44.0% | 0.7 | 78.2% | 24.4% | |
| 6 | Rory Stewart | F | Sr | 6'8" | 30-7 | 21.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.3% | 32.1% | 5.5 | 64.7% | 20.6% | |
| 2 | Darren Williams | G | So | 6'4" | 34-10 | 18.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 50.5% | 35.7% | 4.1 | 100.0% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Tristen Guillouette | C | So | 6'10" | 29-7 | 13.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 53.0% | — | 0.0 | 63.6% | 15.1% | |
| 0 | Jack Reddick | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 42.9% | 22.4% | 1.5 | 63.2% | 17.8% | |
| 3 | Gabe Tanner | F | Fr | 6'4" | 15-0 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 50.0% | 19.4% | |
| 10 | George Washington III | G | Jr | 6'2" | 14-2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 38.9% | 25.0% | 2.9 | 100.0% | 29.8% | |
| 4 | Matt McCarthy | G | Fr | 6'3" | 13-0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 42.9% | 33.3% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 13.6% | |
| 31 | Brandon Dwyer | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 1.0 | — | 23.8% | |
| 8 | BB Washington | G | So | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 23 | Chase Konieczny | F | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Evan Barlow | F | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26FGCU
Against the spread
Season
9-22
Home
4-11
Road
3-10
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-17
Home
10-5
Road
4-9
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.4
Under 6 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | C Arkansas | N | L 63–73 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 145.0 | U136 | 89.9 | 104.2 | 70.0 |
| Mar 6 | Lipscomb | N | W 77–53 | +4.5 | W+28.5 | 150.0 | U130 | 122.2 | 84.1 | 63.0 |
| Mar 4 | North Alabama | N | W 69–58 | −7.5 | W+3.5 | 139.5 | U127 | 110.7 | 93.1 | 62.3 |
| Feb 28 | Stetson | A | L 63–78 | −5.5 | L−20.5 | 151.5 | U141 | 93.2 | 115.3 | 67.6 |
| Feb 26 | North Florida | A | L 70–76 | −7.0 | L−13.0 | 161.0 | U146 | 101.2 | 109.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | C Arkansas | H | W 75–71 OT | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 153.0 | U146 | 104.4 | 98.8 | 71.9 |
| Feb 18 | Jacksonville | H | W 86–84 | −6.5 | L−4.5 | 136.0 | O170 | 130.6 | 127.6 | 65.8 |
| Feb 14 | Stetson | H | W 78–76 | −10.5 | L−8.5 | 148.5 | O154 | 114.8 | 111.8 | 68.0 |
| Feb 11 | North Florida | H | W 90–81 | −12.5 | L−3.5 | 163.5 | O171 | 123.6 | 111.2 | 72.8 |
| Feb 7 | Bellarmine | A | L 65–81 | −2.0 | L−18.0 | 152.5 | U146 | 96.5 | 120.3 | 67.3 |
Pepperdine
Against the spread
Season
14-16
Home
6-9
Road
8-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13-1
Home
9-5-1
Road
7-6
Last 10
9-1
avg vs total +15.7
Under in the last gameOver in 9 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Portland | N | L 68–77 | +3.5 | L−5.5 | 154.0 | U145 | 98.2 | 111.2 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | Washington St | H | W 88–79 | +8.0 | W+17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 116.6 | 104.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | Seattle U | H | L 80–87 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 145.5 | O167 | 114.1 | 124.1 | 70.1 |
| Feb 21 | Oregon St | A | L 73–83 | +9.0 | L−1.0 | 148.5 | O156 | 101.4 | 115.3 | 72.0 |
| Feb 18 | Portland | A | W 95–87 | +7.0 | W+15.0 | 151.0 | O182 | 136.2 | 124.8 | 69.7 |
| Feb 14 | LMU | H | W 90–89 | +6.0 | W+7.0 | 148.5 | O179 | 126.4 | 125.0 | 71.2 |
| Feb 11 | Saint Mary's | A | L 60–88 | +24.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | O148 | 83.8 | 122.9 | 71.6 |
| Feb 7 | Pacific | H | L 59–92 | +7.5 | L−25.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 81.3 | 126.8 | 72.5 |
| Feb 4 | Seattle U | A | L 81–83 | +13.0 | W+11.0 | 139.5 | O164 | 105.8 | 108.4 | 76.5 |
| Jan 28 | San Diego | H | L 88–92 OT | +2.5 | L−1.5 | 150.5 | O180 | 109.6 | 114.5 | 80.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeFGCUPepperdine
Efficiency
107.1
103.9
110.7
111.8
68.5
69.0
—
—
Shooting
52.0%
47.6%
53.3%
48.0%
33.2%
31.4%
72.1%
75.8%
29.1%
33.8%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
18.3%
16.5%
16.5%
31.1%
29.1%
28.2%
34.0%
9.2%
10.9%
8.6%
10.7%
Style
38.4%
39.2%
43.1%
40.5%
15.4%
9.4%
52.0%
56.2%
33.0%
27.8%
Roster
2.83
2.21
6'4.7"
6'6.3"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputFGCU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Pepperdine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Pepperdine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.