CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceKnights Hall, Louisville, KY

E Illinois

Efficiency #317

2025-26: 13-20 · 9-13 conf

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

71.1

win 31%

Projected

76.7

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: BELL −5.6 · total 147.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bellarmine 66.5, E Illinois 67.2 → 65.4 possessions

−6.4

Bellarmine offense vs E Illinois defense

+3.9

E Illinois offense vs Bellarmine defense

+2.1

Projected total

147.8

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bellarmine offense vs E Illinois defense

+3.9

E Illinois offense vs Bellarmine defense

−2.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Bellarmine by 5.6

5.6

E Illinois side ◂▸ Bellarmine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bellarmine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, E Illinois is the faster team (66.2, #286 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.8

model

Projected team totals

71.1 / 76.7

E Illinois / Bellarmine

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#277

E Illinois

66.5#319

Bellarmine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); E Illinois allows 50.8% (#146). Expect about 55.7%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.4 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Bellarmine averages 66.2 possessions per 40, E Illinois 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, Bellarmine's defense, E Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect E Illinois at about 38.9% of its shots from three, Bellarmine about 41.9%.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.2% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

ClashBellarmine

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Bellarmine (#17 in 3-point shooting) against E Illinois (#50 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.5%. Historically Bellarmine's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

ClashE Illinois

Style clash: 3-point volume

E Illinois rarely shoots threes (29.9% of its shots); Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

E Illinois has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #353

59.4% #365

+1.3 pt/100

18.6% #303

15.0% #287

+0.1 pt/100

28.2% #256

34.2% #320

+0.2 pt/100

33.5% #224

34.3% #157

-0.1 pt/100

74.4% #107

—

+0.2 pt/100

E Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseE Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

50.8% #146

+6.4 pt/100

15.5% #104

19.3% #39

-1.1 pt/100

22.4% #354

35.2% #343

-2.0 pt/100

35.0% #178

35.3% #187

+0.0 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinoisoffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

E Illinois shoots

39.9

7.2

23.4

29.5

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.1%#339	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	33.5%#323	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	31.7%#292	40.4%#364	33.7%

Bellarmineoffense vsE Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

E Illinois allows

39.2

5.2

14.1

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	60.7%#257	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	37.0%#111	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	33.5%#37	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	31.7%#50	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

E Illinois

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#271 of 365

Off reb %

28.2%

#256

Def reb %

64.8%

#343

Turnover %

18.6%

#303

Forced TO %

19.3%

#39

FT rate

33.5%

#224

FT allowed

35.3%

#187

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed0.0

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

E Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.0 (#271 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

E Illinois2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
40	Kooper Jacobi	F	Sr	6'7"	33-32	33.3	11.1	6.4	1.8	1.2	44.8%	24.0%	3.0	52.2%	23.9%
3	Meechie White	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	30.4	10.5	3.7	3.1	1.8	49.8%	38.0%	2.8	85.7%	22.2%
5	Zion Fruster	G	Sr	6'2"	30-22	31.7	14.5	3.2	2.3	1.9	45.1%	30.3%	3.3	81.4%	31.3%
24	Terry McMorris	F	So	6'7"	33-24	26.1	7.6	5.8	1.5	1.6	46.1%	16.7%	0.4	75.7%	19.9%
10	Preston Turner	G	Jr	6'6"	31-9	20.8	7.7	1.7	0.9	1.5	59.5%	44.8%	3.1	81.5%	21.7%
13	Nazareth Fisher	F	Sr	6'10"	29-26	15.2	4.1	4.1	0.4	1.1	55.3%	—	0.0	68.4%	18.2%
1	Markus Blackwell	G	Fr	6'2"	23-0	16.6	4.7	1.1	0.9	1.0	47.4%	43.6%	1.7	77.8%	20.2%
4	Andre Washington	G	Sr	5'11"	14-12	24.1	10.5	1.9	1.1	1.0	46.7%	28.6%	3.5	70.0%	29.0%
7	Prince Johnson	F	Jr	6'8"	31-2	10.8	2.0	2.4	0.1	0.2	48.8%	—	0.0	68.8%	11.0%
11	Malik Olafioye	G	So	6'2"	20-2	16.4	3.9	1.9	1.3	1.5	39.6%	15.0%	1.0	64.0%	21.5%
15	Andrew Austin	F	So	6'7"	24-3	11.4	2.4	0.8	0.9	0.6	41.7%	21.7%	1.9	61.5%	17.6%
2	JT Elder	G	Jr	6'7"	1-0	17.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	66.7%	50.0%	4.0	—	24.6%
6	Kyle Layton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Shane Sims	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

E Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

5-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.2

Covered 2 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-5

Road

6-10

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.6

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	L 63–66	+8.0	W+5.0	126.0	O129	101.8	106.7	61.9
Mar 4	SIUEAdjEM #229	N	W 77–71 OT	+4.5	W+10.5	128.0	O148	111.5	102.8	69.0
Feb 28	SIUEAdjEM #229	A	L 50–77	+6.0	L−21.0	130.0	U127	83.0	127.9	60.2
Feb 26	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	A	W 71–67	+7.5	W+11.5	144.0	U138	102.7	96.9	69.2
Feb 21	S IndianaAdjEM #333	H	L 68–70	−4.5	L−6.5	136.0	O138	103.9	106.9	65.5
Feb 19	Morehead StAdjEM #266	H	L 70–73	+1.0	L−2.0	136.5	O143	105.5	110.0	66.3
Feb 14	Little RockAdjEM #300	H	W 78–72	+1.5	W+7.5	135.5	O150	117.5	108.4	66.4
Feb 10	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	L 70–79	−4.5	L−13.5	133.0	O149	97.2	109.7	72.0
Feb 7	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	A	W 60–54	+4.5	W+10.5	140.5	U114	93.0	83.7	64.5
Feb 5	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	A	L 68–77	+9.5	W+0.5	145.5	U145	98.6	111.6	69.0

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

E IllinoisBellarmine

Efficiency

100.7

113.2

109.7

119.4

67.2

66.5

—

Shooting

45.7%

59.4%

44.9%

61.0%

31.7%

38.1%

74.4%

78.8%

33.5%

35.0%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

15.5%

19.3%

15.0%

28.2%

22.4%

35.2%

34.2%

9.5%

9.1%

11.7%

9.1%

Style

29.9%

41.2%

44.3%

47.0%

18.7%

9.2%

48.7%

53.4%

32.6%

28.4%

Roster

3.09

2.70

6'4.6"

6'5.8"

—

93.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

E Illinois

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted E Illinois's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.