CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMerkert Gymnasium, South Easton, MA

Holy Cross

Efficiency #325

2025-26: 11-22 · 6-14 conf

Stonehill

Efficiency #320

2025-26: 12-21 · 9-11 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · 1:00 PM ET

66.2

win 36%

Projected

70.2

win 64%

No line posted yet.

Model: STO −4.0 · total 136.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Stonehill 67.7, Holy Cross 67.1 → 66.4 possessions

−4.1

Stonehill offense vs Holy Cross defense

−3.8

Holy Cross offense vs Stonehill defense

−4.0

Projected total

136.3

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Stonehill offense vs Holy Cross defense

−3.8

Holy Cross offense vs Stonehill defense

+4.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Stonehill by 4.0

4.0

Holy Cross side ◂▸ Stonehill side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Stonehill.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Stonehill is the faster team (66.6, #265 of 365) and Holy Cross the slower (65.8, #302). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.3

model

Projected team totals

66.2 / 70.2

Holy Cross / Stonehill

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.1#280

Holy Cross

67.7#240

Stonehill

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageHoly Cross

Where Holy Cross struggles: the offensive glass

Holy Cross rebounds 21.9% of its own misses (#356); Stonehill lets opponents grab 27.1% of their own misses (#40). Expect about 22.8%, 7.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversHoly Cross

Holy Cross protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 13.8% is worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions for Holy Cross's offense.

Pace

Half-court grind

Stonehill averages 66.6 possessions per 40, Holy Cross 65.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashHoly Cross

Style match: ball movement

Holy Cross creates off the dribble (assists on 44.7% of its baskets); Stonehill breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.0% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 42.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageStonehill

Where Stonehill struggles: the offensive glass

Stonehill rebounds 27.5% of its own misses (#282); Holy Cross lets opponents grab 27.0% of their own misses (#37). Expect about 26.7%, 3.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Holy Cross has the ball

OffenseStonehill allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #248

47.8% #36

-3.8 pt/100

15.3% #86

13.4% #347

+3.7 pt/100

21.9% #356

27.1% #40

-4.6 pt/100

31.5% #268

30.3% #67

-0.6 pt/100

77.2% #29

—

+0.4 pt/100

Holy Cross net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100

Stonehill has the ball

OffenseHoly Cross allowsvs D1 avg

46.9% #339

54.8% #324

-1.1 pt/100

19.4% #335

14.1% #332

+0.3 pt/100

27.5% #282

27.0% #37

-2.3 pt/100

27.3% #350

27.6% #30

-1.0 pt/100

68.5% #311

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stonehill net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Crossoffense vsStonehilldefense

Share of shots by zone

Holy Cross shoots

33.1

8.5

22.4

36.0

Stonehill allows

40.9

8.7

17.9

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.6%#310	53.6%#33	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.2%#49	37.2%#114	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.0%#7	34.2%#54	38.0%
Three	32.5%#252	33.4%#150	33.7%

Stonehilloffense vsHoly Crossdefense

Share of shots by zone

Stonehill shoots

42.6

4.2

12.7

40.6

Holy Cross allows

41.5

6.4

13.3

38.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.6%#362	63.4%#333	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.4%#355	50.0%#354	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#285	43.3%#332	38.0%
Three	31.7%#294	34.0%#181	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Holy Cross

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#248 of 365

Off reb %

21.9%

#356

Def reb %

73.0%

#37

Turnover %

15.3%

#86

Forced TO %

14.1%

#332

FT rate

31.5%

#268

FT allowed

27.6%

#30

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Stonehill

−4.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#341 of 365

Off reb %

27.5%

#282

Def reb %

72.9%

#40

Turnover %

19.4%

#335

Forced TO %

13.4%

#347

FT rate

27.3%

#350

FT allowed

30.3%

#67

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−1.8

Forcing turnovers−2.3

Foul shots drawn−2.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Holy Cross has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#248 of 365) to Stonehill’s −4.6 (#341).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stonehill2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stonehill's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hermann Koffi	G	So	6'4"	32-32	35.4	12.8	2.8	1.3	1.3	51.4%	36.8%	6.6	88.7%	22.1%
4	Davante Hackett	G	Jr	6'3"	33-11	27.7	13.6	4.1	1.5	1.3	51.0%	34.4%	5.6	73.6%	29.8%
5	Chas Stinson	G	Sr	6'4"	32-29	27.9	11.3	5.5	1.6	2.1	47.2%	23.5%	1.1	70.3%	27.6%
1	Rex Sunderland	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	26.9	4.7	3.5	3.2	2.4	38.3%	27.4%	2.5	62.2%	17.9%
13	Raymond Espinal-Guzman	F	Sr	6'8"	33-22	24.1	6.3	5.1	1.3	1.6	43.1%	26.3%	2.3	67.3%	20.9%
11	Ridvan Tutic	F	Jr	6'11"	30-24	22.5	7.1	7.8	1.0	1.3	59.4%	—	0.0	53.8%	19.4%
33	Ethan Meuser	F	Sr	6'8"	20-11	20.4	6.1	5.2	1.3	1.1	46.4%	28.3%	3.0	54.3%	22.4%
2	Trenton Ruth	G	So	6'3"	32-0	11.4	3.4	1.1	1.2	0.7	38.7%	28.0%	1.6	62.1%	25.2%
31	Pearse McGuinn	F	So	6'8"	25-1	9.3	2.7	1.6	0.3	0.6	44.1%	25.0%	0.6	78.9%	20.9%
30	Anthony Holden	G	Sr	6'5"	20-0	10.0	2.4	0.9	0.4	0.2	59.0%	42.9%	1.4	66.7%	12.9%
3	William Batchelder	G	Sr	6'2"	3-3	27.3	10.3	2.0	1.3	2.0	54.0%	46.7%	5.0	66.7%	22.5%
20	Cory Lovell	F	Jr	6'9"	11-0	5.9	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.1	37.5%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	9.2%
22	Charlie Diamantis	G	Sr	6'3"	5-0	3.8	0.6	1.2	0.4	0.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	60.0%	21.3%
15	Norbu Jenpa	G	Fr	6'4"	6-0	2.8	0.8	0.8	0.2	0.5	35.7%	20.0%	0.8	—	32.5%
12	Eino Montin	G	Jr	6'1"	2-0	4.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	22.8%
21	Colin Byrne	G	Fr	6'3"	2-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Holy Cross2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Gabe Warren	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	31.6	12.5	4.5	1.5	1.3	52.4%	33.7%	2.6	73.1%	23.5%
0	Tyler Boston	G	So	6'0"	32-32	32.0	14.2	3.7	3.6	1.8	49.7%	35.9%	4.0	82.3%	27.2%
2	DeAndre Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	33-18	25.5	7.9	3.2	1.8	1.4	48.1%	31.1%	2.7	81.0%	21.7%
23	Aidan Richard	F	So	6'6"	30-24	27.2	5.2	4.1	0.8	0.8	38.9%	22.3%	3.7	51.4%	16.1%
30	Joe Nugent	G	Jr	6'6"	21-21	29.7	11.8	3.6	0.7	0.9	59.1%	40.7%	5.6	87.2%	21.2%
4	John St. Germain III	G	Jr	6'1"	31-0	15.5	4.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	48.6%	36.0%	0.8	78.7%	18.8%
34	Declan Ryan	F	Jr	6'8"	26-4	13.5	4.9	2.2	0.7	1.2	55.2%	25.0%	0.5	62.5%	24.9%
1	Will Aljancic	F	Jr	6'6"	17-0	11.8	3.1	1.9	0.3	0.9	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	30.0%	21.7%
22	Chuck Hare	F	So	6'10"	24-3	7.7	2.2	1.7	0.1	0.3	46.7%	—	0.0	62.5%	19.7%
5	Jaden Kirkwood	G	Sr	6'5"	16-1	6.5	0.6	1.2	0.5	0.2	34.6%	16.7%	0.4	—	9.2%
11	Jude Haigh	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	6.9	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.2	37.0%	27.3%	1.7	100.0%	20.8%
15	Tim Finau	F	Fr	6'11"	8-0	2.3	0.6	0.8	0.0	0.1	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	28.7%
33	Austin Mejia	G	So	6'3"	7-0	1.7	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	4.8%
25	Ethan Clark	F	Fr	6'7"	7-0	1.4	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.1	—	—	0.0	—	5.9%
3	Ben Capron	G	Sr	6'0"	3-0	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Holy Cross

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

9-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover 0.0

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-5

Road

8-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.2

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 66–69	+5.5	W+2.5	142.5	U135	99.1	103.6	66.6
Mar 3	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 82–77	+4.5	W+9.5	141.5	O159	121.4	114.0	67.5
Feb 28	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	L 62–76	−1.0	L−15.0	151.0	U138	97.9	120.0	63.3
Feb 25	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 63–78	+8.5	L−6.5	142.0	U141	99.0	122.5	63.7
Feb 22	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 72–63	+2.5	W+11.5	141.5	U135	109.4	95.7	65.8
Feb 18	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 83–86	−2.0	L−5.0	139.5	O169	116.1	120.3	71.5
Feb 15	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	A	L 73–83	+4.5	L−5.5	145.5	O156	112.2	127.5	65.1
Feb 11	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 70–74	+8.0	W+4.0	143.0	O144	102.3	108.1	68.5
Feb 7	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 76–67	+1.5	W+10.5	137.0	O143	117.2	103.3	64.8
Feb 2	Boston UAdjEM #237	H	L 64–72	+2.0	L−6.0	140.0	U136	110.1	123.9	58.1

Stonehill

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

5-6

Road

11-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

10-21

Home

5-6

Road

5-14

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.4

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	A	L 51–56	+4.5	L−0.5	135.0	U107	77.8	85.4	65.6
Mar 4	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	A	W 81–71	+4.5	W+14.5	140.0	O152	114.8	100.6	70.5
Feb 28	MercyhurstAdjEM #261	H	L 72–75 OT	+2.5	L−0.5	138.5	O147	94.0	97.9	76.6
Feb 26	Saint Francis Red Wolves	H	W 103–77	−5.5	W+20.5	140.0	O180	141.0	105.4	73.0
Feb 21	Le MoyneAdjEM #270	H	W 77–68	+2.0	W+11.0	137.0	O145	109.4	96.6	70.4
Feb 19	New HavenAdjEM #326	A	L 51–64	+3.0	L−10.0	121.0	U115	77.9	97.8	65.5
Feb 14	WagnerAdjEM #285	H	L 57–68	−3.0	L−14.0	129.5	U125	86.5	103.2	65.9
Feb 12	Chicago StAdjEM #342	A	L 55–68	−1.5	L−14.5	132.5	U123	98.3	121.5	56.0
Feb 7	Long IslandAdjEM #195	A	L 54–61	+10.0	W+3.0	132.5	U115	88.2	99.7	61.2
Feb 5	FDUAdjEM #332	A	L 58–74	+1.0	L−15.0	131.0	O132	91.0	116.1	63.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Holy CrossStonehill

Efficiency

103.6

98.2

113.1

107.4

67.1

67.7

—

Shooting

49.8%

46.9%

50.4%

46.5%

32.5%

31.7%

77.2%

68.5%

31.5%

27.3%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

19.4%

14.1%

13.4%

21.9%

27.5%

27.0%

27.1%

9.7%

11.2%

8.3%

13.6%

Style

37.3%

40.5%

41.4%

44.1%

10.3%

12.4%

44.7%

51.3%

27.9%

29.3%

Roster

2.63

3.23

6'4.3"

6'5.6"

87.9%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Holy Cross

Returning minutes: 87.9%Returning production: 86.0%

Lost

Aiden Disu 24.1 mpg, 9.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Stonehill

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stonehill's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.