CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceRupp Arena, Lexington, KY
App State
Efficiency #180
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
Kentucky
Efficiency #27
2025-26: 22-14 · 12-9 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
64.5
win 14%
Projected
77.2
win 86%
No line posted yet.
Model: UK −12.7 · total 141.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kentucky 68.9, App State 65.5 → 66.0 possessions
−5.0
Kentucky offense vs App State defense
+3.7
App State offense vs Kentucky defense
−5.2
Projected total
141.7
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kentucky offense vs App State defense
+3.7
App State offense vs Kentucky defense
+5.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Kentucky by 12.7
12.7
App State side ◂▸ Kentucky side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kentucky.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kentucky is the faster team (69.7, #106 of 365) and App State the slower (64.1, #355). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.7
model
Projected team totals
64.5 / 77.2
App State / Kentucky
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.5#359
App State
68.9#130
Kentucky
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageKentucky
Where Kentucky scores: ball control
Kentucky turns it over on 15.4% of possessions (#96); App State forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#335). Expect about 14.2%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageApp State
Where App State struggles: shooting
App State shoots an effective 49.9% (#240); Kentucky allows 48.9% (#63). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Kentucky averages 69.7 possessions per 40, App State 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversApp State
App State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for App State's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (App State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect App State at about 44.9% of its shots from three, Kentucky about 40.9%.
DefenseKentucky
Kentucky's shot-blocking
Kentucky ranks #34 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.4% of App State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
App State has the ball
OffenseKentucky allowsvs D1 avg
49.9% #240
48.9% #63
-2.9 pt/100
15.3% #84
15.5% #249
+2.0 pt/100
32.0% #123
30.0% #158
+0.5 pt/100
39.1% #77
36.4% #223
+0.3 pt/100
64.5% #362
—
-0.7 pt/100
App State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100
Kentucky has the ball
OffenseApp State allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #87
47.5% #33
-1.0 pt/100
15.4% #96
14.0% #335
+3.1 pt/100
33.2% #84
29.0% #106
+0.8 pt/100
37.4% #119
31.2% #86
-0.1 pt/100
72.7% #179
—
+0.0 pt/100
Kentucky net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersApp Stateoffense vsKentuckydefense
Share of shots by zone
App State shoots
37.8
4.1
12.2
45.9
Kentucky allows
33.9
7.6
18.8
39.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.6%#135 | 57.3%#124 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.5%#280 | 42.8%#246 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#254 | 39.3%#211 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.4%#335 | 31.8%#55 | 33.7% |
Kentuckyoffense vsApp Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Kentucky shoots
37.5
6.8
17.0
38.7
App State allows
35.5
5.0
18.7
40.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.1%#35 | 52.4%#19 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.4%#58 | 34.2%#46 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#322 | 38.4%#172 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#158 | 32.2%#71 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersApp State
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#84 of 365
Off reb %
32.0%
#123
Def reb %
71.0%
#106
Turnover %
15.3%
#84
Forced TO %
14.0%
#335
FT rate
39.1%
#77
FT allowed
31.2%
#86
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Kentucky
+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#119 of 365
Off reb %
33.2%
#84
Def reb %
70.0%
#158
Turnover %
15.4%
#96
Forced TO %
15.5%
#249
FT rate
37.4%
#119
FT allowed
36.4%
#223
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3
App State has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#84 of 365) to Kentucky’s +1.5 (#119).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
App State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kasen Jennings | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 46.7% | 32.2% | 5.6 | 76.9% | 31.2% | |
| 2 | Alonzo Dodd | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 31.4 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 3.9 | 70.4% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | Jalen Tot | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-16 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 48.9% | 33.6% | 7.8 | 69.8% | 25.6% | |
| 44 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | So | 6'9" | 32-25 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 70.7% | 19.6% | |
| 4 | Eren Banks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-16 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 4.1 | 50.0% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Chad Moodie | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-7 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 41.5% | 14.0% | |
| 5 | Jason Clarke Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 23-0 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 42.8% | 17.2% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Andrin Njock | F | Fr | 6'6" | 21-2 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 57.0% | 17.6% | 0.8 | 76.7% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | Jacari Brim | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 52.2% | 35.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 11.7% | |
| 14 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 24.3% | |
| 33 | Grant Clayton | F | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 32 | Luke Ledford | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.8% | |
| 0 | KJ Vasser | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Ted Neal | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Tre McKinnon | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kentucky2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Milan Momcilovicat Iowa State | F | Sr | 6'9" | 37-37 | 30.4 | 16.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 67.2% | 48.7% | 7.5 | 87.8% | 25.0% | |
| 10 | Alex Wilkinsat Furman | G | So | 6'6" | 35-35 | 29.7 | 17.8 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 52.8% | 32.8% | 5.7 | 82.4% | 39.2% | |
| 5 | Zoom Dialloat Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-29 | 29.6 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 51.7% | 31.5% | 2.2 | 82.5% | 33.0% | |
| 21 | Justin McBrideat James Madison | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-30 | 27.1 | 15.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54.9% | 40.0% | 3.1 | 78.2% | 32.4% | |
| 1 | Jerone Mortonat Washington St | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 24.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 51.8% | 38.8% | 2.5 | 82.0% | 18.8% | |
| 24 | Malachi Moreno | C | So | 7'0" | 36-30 | 22.6 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 58.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 69.8% | 19.1% | |
| 11 | Franck Kepnangat Washington | C | Sr | 7'0" | 27-25 | 22.9 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 51.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 68.9% | 17.2% | |
| 3 | Kam Williams | G | Jr | 6'7" | 24-7 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 57.9% | 35.9% | 3.3 | 95.5% | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Trent Noah | F | Jr | 6'6" | 26-3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 82.6% | 16.2% | |
| 2 | Braydon Hawthorne | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 33 | Reece Potter | F | Sr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | Mason Williams | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 19 | Ousmane N'Diaye | F | — | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Zyon Hawthorne | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Zoom Diallo (from Washington), Franck Kepnang (from Washington), Justin McBride (from James Madison), Milan Momcilovic (from Iowa State), Jerone Morton (from Washington St), Alex Wilkins (from Furman)
App State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kasen Jennings | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 46.7% | 32.2% | 5.6 | 76.9% | 31.2% | |
| 2 | Alonzo Dodd | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 31.4 | 13.8 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 52.7% | 28.0% | 3.9 | 70.4% | 29.3% | |
| 9 | Jalen Tot | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-16 | 25.1 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 48.9% | 33.6% | 7.8 | 69.8% | 25.6% | |
| 44 | Michael Marcus Jr. | F | So | 6'9" | 32-25 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 2.8 | 70.7% | 19.6% | |
| 4 | Eren Banks | G | Jr | 6'3" | 30-16 | 25.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 44.0% | 25.0% | 4.1 | 50.0% | 20.2% | |
| 23 | Chad Moodie | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-7 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 58.6% | — | 0.0 | 41.5% | 14.0% | |
| 5 | Jason Clarke Jr. | G | So | 6'0" | 23-0 | 13.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 42.8% | 17.2% | 1.3 | 58.3% | 20.1% | |
| 21 | Andrin Njock | F | Fr | 6'6" | 21-2 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 57.0% | 17.6% | 0.8 | 76.7% | 16.0% | |
| 6 | Jacari Brim | G | Fr | 6'2" | 20-0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 52.2% | 35.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 11.7% | |
| 14 | Cameron O'Kelley | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 24.3% | |
| 33 | Grant Clayton | F | Fr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 32 | Luke Ledford | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.0 | — | 33.8% | |
| 0 | KJ Vasser | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Ted Neal | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Tre McKinnon | F | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26App State
Against the spread
Season
16-13-1
Home
7-6
Road
8-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
12-18
Home
5-8
Road
5-9
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +1.3
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Southern Miss | N | L 73–86 | −5.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | O159 | 106.5 | 125.4 | 68.6 |
| Feb 27 | Texas St | A | L 57–60 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 93.8 | 98.7 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | GA Southern | H | W 89–74 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | O163 | 125.2 | 104.1 | 71.1 |
| Feb 19 | Marshall | H | L 93–94 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | O187 | 139.9 | 141.4 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | James Madison | A | L 58–69 | −1.5 | L−12.5 | 135.0 | U127 | 94.7 | 112.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 11 | GA Southern | A | W 81–65 | −1.5 | W+14.5 | 144.0 | O146 | 122.2 | 98.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | E Michigan | H | W 65–60 | −7.5 | L−2.5 | 131.0 | U125 | 100.7 | 92.9 | 64.6 |
| Feb 4 | South Alabama | H | W 65–57 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 132.0 | U122 | 111.4 | 97.7 | 58.4 |
| Jan 31 | Troy | A | W 66–44 | +8.0 | W+30.0 | 137.5 | U110 | 112.1 | 74.8 | 58.8 |
| Jan 29 | Southern Miss | A | W 70–63 | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 134.0 | U133 | 105.2 | 94.6 | 66.6 |
Kentucky
Against the spread
Season
18-18
Home
9-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-18-1
Home
10-8
Road
4-5-1
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +0.5
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #2Iowa State | N | L 63–82 | +4.5 | L−14.5 | 146.5 | U145 | 91.0 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Mar 20 | #10Santa Clara | N | W 89–84 OT | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 157.5 | O173 | 119.3 | 112.6 | 74.6 |
| Mar 13 | #4Florida | N | L 63–71 | +10.0 | W+2.0 | 160.5 | U134 | 86.2 | 97.1 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | Missouri | N | W 78–72 | −3.5 | W+2.5 | 149.5 | O150 | 113.2 | 104.5 | 68.9 |
| Mar 11 | LSU | N | W 87–82 | −9.0 | L−4.0 | 151.5 | O169 | 123.9 | 116.8 | 70.2 |
| Mar 7 | #5Florida | H | L 77–84 | +5.5 | L−1.5 | 162.0 | U161 | 107.6 | 117.3 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Texas A&M | A | L 85–96 | +1.5 | L−9.5 | 162.0 | O181 | 112.7 | 127.3 | 75.4 |
| Feb 28 | #25Vanderbilt | H | W 91–77 | −1.0 | W+13.0 | 157.5 | O168 | 133.7 | 113.2 | 68.0 |
| Feb 24 | South Carolina | A | W 72–63 | −7.5 | W+1.5 | 151.0 | U135 | 100.3 | 87.7 | 71.8 |
| Feb 21 | Auburn | A | L 74–75 | +2.5 | W+1.5 | 162.5 | U149 | 104.6 | 106.0 | 70.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeApp StateKentucky
Efficiency
106.6
115.6
107.0
102.5
65.5
68.9
—
—
Shooting
49.9%
53.3%
53.6%
54.7%
30.4%
34.2%
64.5%
72.7%
39.1%
37.4%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
15.4%
14.0%
15.5%
32.0%
33.2%
29.0%
30.0%
7.7%
9.7%
8.8%
8.5%
Style
45.9%
39.7%
43.1%
44.7%
12.0%
19.2%
47.8%
56.9%
27.2%
34.9%
Roster
3.17
3.22
6'3.9"
6'7.8"
85.9%
21.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputApp State
Returning minutes: 85.9%Returning production: 81.0%
Lost
- Luke Wilson 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
- Tre McKinnon no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Vasser no D1 minutes last season
- Ted Neal no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Kentucky
Returning minutes: 21.4%Returning production: 21.9%
Lost
- Otega Oweh 32.7 mpg, 18.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denzel Aberdeen 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg · transferred to Florida
- Collin Chandler 27.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mouhamed Dioubate 18.6 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Garrison 16.2 mpg, 4.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Andrija Jelavic 14.0 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Milan Momcilovic from Iowa State · 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg last season
- Alex Wilkins from Furman · 29.7 mpg, 17.8 ppg last season
- Zoom Diallo from Washington · 29.6 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Justin McBride from James Madison · 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
- Jerone Morton from Washington St · 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg last season
- Franck Kepnang from Washington · 18.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.