CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameMemorial Coliseum (IN), Fort Wayne, IN

Cleveland St

Efficiency #330

2025-26: 11-22 · 7-15 conf

Purdue FW

Efficiency #258

2025-26: 17-15 · 11-10 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

75.9

win 25%

Projected

83.6

win 75%

No line posted yet.

Model: PFW −7.7 · total 159.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Purdue FW 68.6, Cleveland St 69.9 → 70.1 possessions

+3.9

Purdue FW offense vs Cleveland St defense

+5.5

Cleveland St offense vs Purdue FW defense

+1.8

Projected total

159.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Purdue FW offense vs Cleveland St defense

+5.5

Cleveland St offense vs Purdue FW defense

−1.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Purdue FW by 7.7

7.7

Cleveland St side ◂▸ Purdue FW side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue FW.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cleveland St is the faster team (71.4, #39 of 365) and Purdue FW the slower (69.0, #145). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.1

per team, 40 min

Projected total

159.4

model

Projected team totals

75.9 / 83.6

Cleveland St / Purdue FW

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.9#59

Cleveland St

68.6#160

Purdue FW

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCleveland St

Where Cleveland St scores: shooting

Cleveland St shoots an effective 54.2% (#62); Purdue FW allows 56.1% (#345). Expect about 55.4%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePurdue FW

Where Purdue FW scores: shooting

Purdue FW shoots an effective 52.6% (#125); Cleveland St allows 57.2% (#360). Expect about 55.0%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashCleveland St

Style match: 3-point volume

Cleveland St takes 50.8% of its shots from three; Purdue FW lets opponents take 44.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 51.5% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversPurdue FW

Purdue FW protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Purdue FW's offense.

Pace

Track meet

Purdue FW averages 69.0 possessions per 40, Cleveland St 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversCleveland St

Cleveland St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.9% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland St's offense.

Cleveland St has the ball

OffensePurdue FW allowsvs D1 avg

54.2% #62

56.1% #345

+5.9 pt/100

17.8% #262

19.1% #45

-2.6 pt/100

27.0% #294

34.5% #327

-0.2 pt/100

37.9% #105

28.5% #36

-0.3 pt/100

76.2% #48

—

+0.3 pt/100

Cleveland St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

Purdue FW has the ball

OffenseCleveland St allowsvs D1 avg

52.6% #125

57.2% #360

+5.4 pt/100

14.5% #44

15.1% #278

+2.9 pt/100

22.9% #351

36.6% #356

-1.4 pt/100

30.6% #292

35.5% #196

-0.2 pt/100

70.7% #247

—

-0.1 pt/100

Purdue FW net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cleveland Stoffense vsPurdue FWdefense

Share of shots by zone

Cleveland St shoots

33.2

4.9

11.2

50.7

Purdue FW allows

39.8

4.2

12.3

43.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.0%#160	62.7%#317	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	30.3%#17	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.1%#310	35.8%#100	38.0%
Three	37.5%#21	37.9%#355	33.7%

Purdue FWoffense vsCleveland Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Purdue FW shoots

41.7

3.2

10.2

44.9

Cleveland St allows

38.0

6.0

12.0

44.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#176	67.1%#361	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	43.0%#252	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.5%#251	42.0%#305	38.0%
Three	34.2%#163	36.2%#309	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cleveland St

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#331 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#294

Def reb %

63.4%

#356

Turnover %

17.8%

#262

Forced TO %

15.1%

#278

FT rate

37.9%

#105

FT allowed

35.5%

#196

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−1.9

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+0.7

Foul shots allowed−0.1

Purdue FW

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#177 of 365

Off reb %

22.9%

#351

Def reb %

65.5%

#327

Turnover %

14.5%

#44

Forced TO %

19.1%

#45

FT rate

30.6%

#292

FT allowed

28.5%

#36

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.4

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+1.7

Purdue FW has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#177 of 365) to Cleveland St’s −4.2 (#331).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Purdue FW2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Corey Hadnot II	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	33.2	20.4	4.0	3.5	2.1	58.1%	35.8%	5.0	69.0%	32.9%
2	Mikale Stevenson	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	29.8	13.9	3.6	3.1	2.2	49.3%	34.2%	4.8	79.6%	29.3%
9	DeAndre Craig Jr.	G	Jr	6'0"	32-32	28.8	14.0	3.3	2.6	1.5	51.3%	38.5%	4.2	79.4%	27.7%
11	Maximus Nelson	F	Sr	6'8"	32-32	27.5	7.9	3.4	0.8	0.5	55.1%	36.9%	6.1	82.8%	15.4%
34	Darius Duffy	F	Sr	6'8"	32-15	21.6	5.0	4.4	0.6	0.5	70.5%	0.0%	0.0	26.5%	11.8%
13	Deangelo Elisee	F	Sr	6'9"	32-17	13.8	3.8	2.6	0.3	0.6	70.4%	50.0%	0.1	61.5%	13.9%
5	EJ Mosley	G	Fr	6'0"	32-0	13.1	3.2	1.1	0.8	0.3	47.6%	31.3%	1.5	77.8%	14.3%
4	Chris Morgan	G	Jr	6'2"	27-0	14.5	3.1	1.0	1.0	0.5	45.4%	28.2%	1.4	78.8%	13.8%
15	Yuval Levin	F	Fr	6'8"	32-0	9.6	3.2	1.9	0.7	0.5	47.8%	28.3%	1.4	68.0%	21.6%
1	Ebrahim Kaba	G	Fr	6'9"	20-0	12.8	4.0	2.9	0.8	0.8	51.3%	34.0%	2.5	100.0%	19.9%
24	Mason Shrout	G	Fr	6'5"	13-0	5.9	3.7	0.5	0.4	0.2	60.6%	38.5%	2.0	88.9%	27.0%
22	Danny Kelly	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Ja'Corey Lipkins	G	So	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Quentin Morgan	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Solomon Richard	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cleveland St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Tre Beard	G	Sr	5'10"	30-30	30.9	12.6	3.2	3.3	1.2	58.6%	41.9%	6.8	85.7%	20.5%
2	Jaidon Lipscomb	G	Sr	6'5"	33-32	27.4	12.9	3.1	3.0	2.0	61.2%	41.7%	7.0	85.5%	24.5%
1	Chevalier Emery	G	Jr	6'0"	33-1	21.8	12.7	1.2	2.0	2.0	54.9%	38.2%	4.0	78.0%	32.3%
7	Dayan Nessah	F	So	6'7"	26-26	27.4	15.5	6.4	2.5	2.7	57.0%	33.3%	0.9	75.0%	30.9%
0	Foster Wonders	G	Sr	6'5"	31-9	22.1	5.4	2.0	0.8	0.4	53.0%	34.4%	3.9	72.7%	13.7%
22	Josiah Harris	F	Jr	6'7"	22-14	26.6	9.0	6.6	1.9	1.4	49.4%	33.0%	4.1	81.3%	20.4%
24	Kamari Jones	G	So	6'4"	23-4	10.9	4.3	1.0	0.4	0.4	47.1%	31.7%	2.6	78.3%	23.6%
5	David Giddens	G	Jr	6'7"	22-3	10.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	29.6%	2.5	70.0%	22.3%
23	Manny Hill	G	Sr	6'0"	19-0	6.9	2.4	1.1	0.7	0.6	47.4%	33.3%	0.3	69.2%	23.6%
15	Ivan Spirov	F	Jr	6'8"	17-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.2	0.5	54.4%	33.3%	0.5	—	18.7%
13	Lucas Burton	F	Sr	6'8"	13-1	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5	0.2	61.5%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	19.3%
50	Kevo St. Hilaire	F	Fr	6'10"	15-0	5.2	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.2	58.3%	—	0.0	40.0%	14.4%
11	Waqo Tessema	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cleveland St

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

4-8

Road

6-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

7-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +5.5

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 61–90	+14.5	L−14.5	161.5	U151	88.1	130.0	69.2
Mar 2	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 101–93	−1.0	W+7.0	169.5	O194	121.7	112.1	83.0
Feb 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 64–83	+12.5	L−6.5	157.5	U147	100.1	129.8	63.9
Feb 25	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 70–81	+8.0	L−3.0	165.5	U151	97.0	112.2	72.2
Feb 22	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 86–92	+3.0	L−3.0	163.0	O178	112.8	120.7	76.2
Feb 18	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 82–106	+11.0	L−13.0	156.5	O188	116.8	151.0	70.2
Feb 15	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 90–102	+7.5	L−4.5	158.5	O192	121.2	137.4	74.2
Feb 12	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 68–85	+4.0	L−13.0	154.0	U153	108.3	135.3	62.8
Feb 7	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	L 74–82	+2.5	L−5.5	168.5	U156	98.7	109.3	75.0
Feb 4	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	W 91–78	+8.0	W+21.0	169.5	U169	127.7	109.5	71.3

Purdue FW

Against the spread

Season

13-16

Home

5-7

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-13

Home

7-5

Road

9-8

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −0.9

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 3	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 56–64	+4.5	L−3.5	145.0	U120	96.7	110.6	57.9
Feb 28	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 87–81	−1.0	W+5.0	160.5	O168	125.0	116.4	69.6
Feb 25	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	152.0	U144	98.7	104.3	70.9
Feb 22	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 92–86	−3.0	W+3.0	163.0	O178	120.7	112.8	76.2
Feb 18	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	L 71–87	+6.0	L−10.0	154.0	O158	99.7	122.1	71.2
Feb 15	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 83–78	−6.5	L−1.5	158.5	O161	110.7	104.1	75.0
Feb 12	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 59–76	+1.5	L−15.5	144.5	U135	100.1	129.0	58.9
Feb 7	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 68–73	+7.0	W+2.0	150.0	U141	109.2	117.2	62.3
Feb 4	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	L 61–90	−2.5	L−31.5	147.0	O151	96.0	141.6	63.5
Jan 31	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	W 83–71	−2.5	W+9.5	144.5	O154	118.8	101.6	69.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Cleveland StPurdue FW

Efficiency

108.3

106.3

118.5

111.2

69.9

68.6

—

Shooting

54.2%

52.6%

52.0%

53.7%

37.5%

34.2%

76.2%

70.7%

37.9%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

14.5%

15.1%

19.1%

27.0%

22.9%

36.6%

34.5%

9.5%

7.3%

14.4%

8.3%

Style

50.8%

45.3%

33.3%

43.2%

17.7%

15.9%

57.9%

49.8%

36.1%

30.8%

Roster

3.30

3.13

6'3.7"

6'4.3"

82.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cleveland St

Returning minutes: 82.4%Returning production: 86.3%

Lost

Preist Ryan 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Canisius
Holden Pierre-Louis 14.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac

Added

Waqo Tessema no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Purdue FW

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Purdue FW's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Feb 22	2025-26	Purdue FW 92 – 86 Cleveland St
Sun, Jan 4	2025-26	Cleveland St 71 – 74 Purdue FW

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.