CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, Pittsburgh, PA
Kansas City
Efficiency #359
2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf
@
Duquesne
Efficiency #131
2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
66.5
win 7%
Projected
83.7
win 93%
No line posted yet.
Model: DUQ −17.2 · total 150.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Duquesne 69.3, Kansas City 69.9 → 70.9 possessions
+5.5
Duquesne offense vs Kansas City defense
+4.8
Kansas City offense vs Duquesne defense
−8.4
Projected total
150.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Duquesne offense vs Kansas City defense
+4.8
Kansas City offense vs Duquesne defense
+8.4
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Duquesne by 17.2
17.2
Kansas City side ◂▸ Duquesne side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +17.3 against +17.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duquesne.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and Duquesne the slower (69.3, #127). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.1
model
Projected team totals
66.5 / 83.7
Kansas City / Duquesne
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#54
Kansas City
69.3#101
Duquesne

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDuquesne
Where Duquesne scores: shooting
Duquesne shoots an effective 52.3% (#131); Kansas City allows 56.3% (#348). Expect about 54.4%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageKansas City
Where Kansas City struggles: shooting
Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); Duquesne allows 52.5% (#241). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Duquesne averages 69.3 possessions per 40, Kansas City 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversKansas City
Kansas City turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas City, Kansas City's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Kansas City at about 37.9% of its shots from three, Duquesne about 43.1%.
GlassKansas City
Kansas City gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.2% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
Kansas City has the ball
OffenseDuquesne allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #352
52.5% #241
-3.7 pt/100
18.2% #281
18.3% #84
-2.2 pt/100
26.4% #314
29.6% #142
-2.0 pt/100
29.2% #330
39.9% #300
+0.0 pt/100
66.2% #352
—
-0.5 pt/100
Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.4 pts/100
Duquesne has the ball
OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #131
56.3% #348
+4.5 pt/100
17.6% #245
16.4% #192
-0.3 pt/100
30.4% #184
35.9% #353
+1.6 pt/100
38.3% #94
31.4% #94
-0.1 pt/100
71.5% #220
—
-0.1 pt/100
Duquesne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Kansas Cityoffense vsDuquesnedefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas City shoots
Duquesne allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32256.2%#9058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.3%#26345.7%#31939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.1%#26039.4%#21638.0%
Three28.4%#36036.2%#31433.7%
Duquesneoffense vsKansas Citydefense
Share of shots by zone
Duquesne shoots
Kansas City allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#15863.1%#32658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25839.7%#18539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16140.9%#27338.0%
Three33.1%#22337.6%#35033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Kansas City
−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#314
Def reb %
64.1%
#353
Turnover %
18.2%
#281
Forced TO %
16.4%
#192
FT rate
29.2%
#330
FT allowed
31.4%
#94
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Duquesne
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#161 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#184
Def reb %
70.4%
#142
Turnover %
17.6%
#245
Forced TO %
18.3%
#84
FT rate
38.3%
#94
FT allowed
39.9%
#300
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2

Duquesne has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#161 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Kansas City2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2CJ EvansGJr5'11"30-3030.411.62.53.82.843.4%22.4%1.670.9%27.6%
0Karmello BranchGJr6'4"28-2629.712.12.61.51.547.1%32.7%7.384.5%25.3%
33Jerome PalmFSr6'10"31-2726.07.86.11.31.248.9%21.7%0.744.4%19.9%
7Kasheem Grady IIGSr6'5"30-1125.710.03.21.21.547.3%29.5%4.380.8%24.3%
4Chris DockeryGJr6'6"29-2022.27.26.00.91.454.8%32.1%1.056.7%19.8%
23Addarin ScottFSr6'8"29-512.53.82.80.50.848.4%0.0%0.157.9%20.3%
3Jamaria ClarkGJr6'2"27-111.92.80.50.90.635.9%21.3%1.795.0%18.1%
8Trey Booker-LoweryGJr6'7"25-110.54.61.80.30.844.2%32.3%1.253.6%31.1%
21Babacar MbengueFSo7'0"25-18.01.21.50.30.448.0%—0.026.3%12.8%
11Kernan BundyGSr6'2"6-113.03.01.21.21.227.5%23.1%2.277.8%21.5%
13D'Andre HarrisonFFr6'6"6-112.32.82.00.20.542.9%0.0%0.262.5%15.2%
5Cory Curtis Jr.GSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Jason HilliardFJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Max SimsGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Kansas CityDuquesne
Efficiency
97.7
109.6
114.1
107.5
69.9
69.3
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
52.3%
47.6%
54.5%
28.4%
33.1%
66.2%
71.5%
29.2%
38.3%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
17.6%
16.4%
18.3%
26.4%
30.4%
35.9%
29.6%
10.9%
9.8%
9.4%
12.5%
Style
36.8%
44.4%
46.9%
42.9%
14.5%
15.7%
46.2%
55.9%
29.7%
31.8%
Roster
3.32
3.43
6'5"
6'5.8"
84.5%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Kansas City
Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%
Lost
  • Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan
Added
  • Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
  • Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
  • Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Duquesne
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Duquesne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.