CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceThomas M. Ryan Center, Kingston, RI

Providence

Efficiency #81

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf

Rhode Island

Efficiency #137

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-12 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

75.8

win 45%

Projected

77.2

win 55%

No line posted yet.

Model: URI −1.4 · total 153.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Rhode Island 67.3, Providence 70.9 → 69.9 possessions

+3.4

Rhode Island offense vs Providence defense

−0.6

Providence offense vs Rhode Island defense

+2.0

Projected total

153.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Rhode Island offense vs Providence defense

−0.6

Providence offense vs Rhode Island defense

−2.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Rhode Island by 1.4

1.4

Providence side ◂▸ Rhode Island side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Rhode Island.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and Rhode Island the slower (66.0, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.0

model

Projected team totals

75.8 / 77.2

Providence / Rhode Island

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.9#18

Providence

67.3#267

Rhode Island

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageProvidence

Where Providence struggles: ball control

Providence turns it over on 16.7% of possessions (#174); Rhode Island forces turnovers on 21.1% of opponent possessions (#10). Expect about 19.5%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Rhode Island averages 66.0 possessions per 40, Providence 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 69 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseRhode Island

Rhode Island's ball-hawking

Rhode Island ranks #15 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Providence's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Rhode Island, Providence) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Providence at about 41.6% of its shots from three, Rhode Island about 42.1%.

Providence has the ball

OffenseRhode Island allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #37

50.4% #124

+2.4 pt/100

16.7% #174

21.1% #10

-3.3 pt/100

31.7% #135

31.8% #247

+1.0 pt/100

36.7% #138

42.6% #331

+0.7 pt/100

75.7% #60

—

+0.3 pt/100

Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.0 pts/100

Rhode Island has the ball

OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg

50.1% #231

51.4% #179

-0.9 pt/100

19.2% #329

13.1% #352

+1.2 pt/100

31.0% #163

30.8% #195

+0.4 pt/100

38.4% #92

32.7% #125

+0.0 pt/100

72.1% #206

—

-0.0 pt/100

Rhode Island net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Providenceoffense vsRhode Islanddefense

Share of shots by zone

Providence shoots

40.7

4.6

14.1

40.5

Rhode Island allows

42.2

3.4

12.6

41.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#88	55.3%#71	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#156	34.0%#44	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#107	31.0%#10	38.0%
Three	36.4%#45	34.7%#232	33.7%

Rhode Islandoffense vsProvidencedefense

Share of shots by zone

Rhode Island shoots

38.4

4.6

13.1

43.9

Providence allows

37.3

6.1

18.4

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#269	57.2%#121	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.2%#192	46.7%#329	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#49	37.9%#154	38.0%
Three	31.1%#318	35.3%#265	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Providence

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#135

Def reb %

69.2%

#195

Turnover %

16.7%

#174

Forced TO %

13.1%

#352

FT rate

36.7%

#138

FT allowed

32.7%

#125

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Rhode Island

+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#175 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#163

Def reb %

68.2%

#247

Turnover %

19.2%

#329

Forced TO %

21.1%

#10

FT rate

38.4%

#92

FT allowed

42.6%

#331

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers+3.0

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Rhode Island has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.1 (#175 of 365) to Providence’s −0.9 (#228).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Rhode Island2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Tyler Cochran	G	Sr	6'4"	32-31	30.9	15.4	6.2	1.8	2.1	50.3%	33.5%	5.1	72.3%	31.6%
5	Jonah Hinton	G	Jr	6'3"	29-27	32.4	12.6	3.0	2.1	2.0	48.0%	31.9%	8.2	81.9%	26.3%
40	Keeyan Itejere	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	28.5	7.6	5.7	0.5	1.4	64.8%	—	0.0	68.6%	15.1%
20	Myles Corey	G	Sr	6'1"	32-31	25.4	9.3	3.1	1.7	1.5	54.2%	24.3%	2.3	73.3%	22.6%
22	RJ Johnson	G	Sr	6'1"	30-9	25.0	5.7	1.7	3.7	1.5	43.2%	28.0%	1.7	91.8%	17.3%
0	Jahmere Tripp	F	Jr	6'6"	27-10	24.6	12.0	4.3	1.5	1.9	53.3%	41.0%	3.1	73.6%	30.2%
8	Alex Crawford	F	Sr	6'8"	32-19	19.4	5.0	3.3	0.2	1.1	44.8%	27.3%	2.1	48.8%	20.4%
7	Jalen Harper	G	Fr	6'3"	26-1	11.7	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.5	38.7%	28.6%	1.3	67.9%	17.4%
21	Damone King	G	Fr	6'2"	22-0	7.7	2.3	0.5	0.2	0.3	47.9%	25.9%	1.2	85.7%	20.0%
55	Drissa Traore	F	Sr	6'8"	22-0	7.5	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.5	37.0%	14.3%	0.6	35.3%	16.7%
35	Mouhamed Sow	F	Sr	6'9"	5-0	20.0	6.4	5.6	0.2	0.6	51.9%	20.0%	1.0	62.5%	19.1%
10	Barrett Loer	G	Fr	6'6"	5-0	3.6	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.4	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	32.6%
30	Jimmy Ball	G	Sr	6'2"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
11	Javon Perry	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Jaymien Aponte	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Miftah Ibiyemi	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
17	Moek Icke	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Providence

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-7

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

11-5

Road

8-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 72–85	+12.0	L−1.0	159.5	U157	95.4	112.6	75.5
Mar 11	ButlerAdjEM #87	N	W 91–81	−2.0	W+8.0	162.5	O172	125.4	111.6	72.6
Mar 7	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	L 79–80	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O159	108.5	109.8	72.8
Mar 4	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	L 56–78	−4.5	L−26.5	162.0	U134	78.9	109.9	71.0
Feb 28	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 79–76	+4.0	W+7.0	167.0	U155	116.3	111.9	67.9
Feb 25	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 94–84	−5.5	W+4.5	170.0	O178	135.3	120.9	69.5
Feb 21	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 71–68	+3.0	W+6.0	152.5	U139	105.7	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	167.0	U148	91.6	104.9	75.3
Feb 11	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 80–87	+5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O167	116.8	127.1	68.5
Feb 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	W 90–72	−5.0	W+13.0	153.5	O162	125.8	100.6	71.5

Rhode Island

Against the spread

Season

12-18-2

Home

6-9-1

Road

4-6-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

8-8

Road

4-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −7.3

Under 4 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	L 61–67	+1.5	L−4.5	138.5	U128	102.3	112.4	59.6
Mar 7	FordhamAdjEM #170	A	L 49–61	+2.0	L−10.0	135.5	U110	75.8	94.4	64.6
Mar 4	DuquesneAdjEM #131	H	W 64–52	−2.5	W+9.5	143.0	U116	98.1	79.7	65.3
Feb 28	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 55–61	−2.0	L−8.0	141.0	U116	78.3	86.8	70.3
Feb 26	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	A	L 76–94	+3.0	L−15.0	143.0	O170	108.9	134.7	69.8
Feb 21	La SalleAdjEM #256	A	L 46–59	−4.0	L−17.0	137.0	U105	74.7	95.8	61.6
Feb 17	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	H	W 81–76	+9.5	W+14.5	152.0	O157	108.6	101.9	74.6
Feb 14	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	L 66–70 OT	−5.0	L−9.0	132.5	O136	95.5	101.2	69.1
Feb 10	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	A	L 70–75	+5.0	P0.0	152.0	U145	103.3	110.6	67.8
Feb 7	RichmondAdjEM #150	H	W 82–77	−6.0	L−1.0	141.0	O159	120.5	113.2	68.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ProvidenceRhode Island

Efficiency

115.4

106.3

109.8

104.4

70.9

67.3

—

Shooting

55.0%

50.1%

55.3%

52.8%

36.4%

31.1%

75.7%

72.1%

36.7%

38.4%

Ball control & glass

16.7%

19.2%

13.1%

21.1%

31.7%

31.0%

30.8%

31.8%

10.4%

11.9%

8.6%

10.2%

Style

40.5%

43.5%

43.4%

40.5%

14.3%

16.5%

47.5%

47.9%

30.8%

29.0%

Roster

2.57

3.52

6'6.4"

6'4.5"

73.6%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Providence

Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%

Lost

Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Rhode Island

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Rhode Island's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Rhode Island 71 – 90 Providence

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.