CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcDougald-McLendon Arena, Durham, NC
SC Upstate
Efficiency #284
2025-26: 13-19 · 5-12 conf
@
NC Central
Efficiency #346
2025-26: 14-18 · 10-7 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
72.3
win 51%
Projected
71.9
win 49%
No line posted yet.
Model: UPST −0.4 · total 144.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: NC Central 67.3, SC Upstate 68.5 → 67.4 possessions
−1.9
NC Central offense vs SC Upstate defense
−3.2
SC Upstate offense vs NC Central defense
+1.0
Projected total
144.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
NC Central offense vs SC Upstate defense
−3.2
SC Upstate offense vs NC Central defense
−1.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
SC Upstate by 0.4
0.4
SC Upstate side ◂▸ NC Central side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.1 against a projected 144.2, and the margin steps add to −0.3 against −0.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help NC Central.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC Upstate is the faster team (69.3, #128 of 365) and NC Central the slower (66.6, #261). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
144.2
model
Projected team totals
72.3 / 71.9
SC Upstate / NC Central
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.5#171
SC Upstate
67.3#266
NC Central
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageSC Upstate
Where SC Upstate struggles: ball control
SC Upstate turns it over on 18.2% of possessions (#283); NC Central forces turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions (#26). Expect about 19.6%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageNC Central
Where NC Central struggles: shooting
NC Central shoots an effective 47.5% (#328); SC Upstate allows 51.0% (#156). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseSC Upstate
SC Upstate's shot-blocking
SC Upstate ranks #39 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.7% of NC Central's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
GlassSC Upstate
SC Upstate owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.9% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for SC Upstate's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (NC Central's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SC Upstate at about 37.2% of its shots from three, NC Central about 32.8%.
ClashNC Central
Style match: 3-point volume
NC Central rarely shoots threes (33.9% of its shots); SC Upstate runs teams off the line (36.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.8% — both habits push the same way.
SC Upstate has the ball
OffenseNC Central allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #307
54.5% #317
-0.1 pt/100
18.2% #283
19.9% #26
-3.5 pt/100
29.2% #231
39.4% #364
+2.1 pt/100
32.8% #239
36.9% #233
+0.0 pt/100
68.1% #324
—
-0.4 pt/100
SC Upstate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100
NC Central has the ball
OffenseSC Upstate allowsvs D1 avg
47.5% #328
51.0% #156
-3.4 pt/100
18.1% #278
16.4% #194
-0.7 pt/100
30.0% #201
31.4% #224
+0.1 pt/100
39.3% #72
36.0% #211
+0.3 pt/100
73.8% #139
—
+0.1 pt/100
NC Central net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersSC Upstateoffense vsNC Centraldefense
Share of shots by zone
SC Upstate shoots
41.2
7.8
15.6
35.4
NC Central allows
40.6
3.0
16.6
39.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.8%#303 | 59.8%#216 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#136 | 38.1%#139 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#202 | 38.4%#171 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.4%#308 | 36.4%#321 | 33.7% |
NC Centraloffense vsSC Upstatedefense
Share of shots by zone
NC Central shoots
44.2
3.4
18.2
34.3
SC Upstate allows
42.0
6.0
15.7
36.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 54.3%#316 | 54.7%#56 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.8%#225 | 45.5%#309 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.5%#325 | 35.7%#96 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.6%#247 | 35.6%#289 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSC Upstate
−2.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#231
Def reb %
68.6%
#224
Turnover %
18.2%
#283
Forced TO %
16.4%
#194
FT rate
32.8%
#239
FT allowed
36.0%
#211
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.2
NC Central
−1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#201
Def reb %
60.6%
#364
Turnover %
18.1%
#278
Forced TO %
19.9%
#26
FT rate
39.3%
#72
FT allowed
36.9%
#233
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−2.8
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.4
NC Central has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.0 (#233 of 365) to SC Upstate’s −2.6 (#289).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
SC Upstate2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmelo Adkins | G | So | 6'4" | 32-15 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 33.0% | 5.9 | 80.7% | 28.5% | |
| 1 | Karmani Gregory | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-30 | 30.5 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 49.0% | 32.8% | 5.9 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 9 | Mason Bendinger | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 29.4 | 14.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47.0% | 31.1% | 2.3 | 53.8% | 32.3% | |
| 0 | Tyler Smith | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-16 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 40.9% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 67.6% | 17.1% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Skinner | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-8 | 20.0 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 51.8% | 34.9% | 3.3 | 85.7% | 16.2% | |
| 11 | Learic Davis | F | Jr | 6'6" | 28-20 | 21.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 32.8% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 21.9% | |
| 12 | Jafeth Martinez | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-20 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 67.6% | — | 0.0 | 65.6% | 12.6% | |
| 7 | Coen Collier | C | Jr | 7'1" | 30-9 | 14.1 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 43.1% | 22.2% | 0.3 | 37.5% | 10.3% | |
| 10 | Breylin Garcia | F | Sr | 6'6" | 21-7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 60.6% | — | 0.0 | 55.6% | 25.4% | |
| 6 | Kanye Jones | G | Jr | 6'5" | 22-1 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 26.3% | 0.9 | 81.3% | 16.7% | |
| 24 | Chico Johnson | G | So | 6'2" | 10-0 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.4% | |
| 8 | Nic Book | F | So | 6'8" | 7-2 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 81.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 21 | CJ Rich | G | Jr | 5'9" | 4-1 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 78.6% | 75.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 13.8% | |
| 5 | TJ Lewis | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
NC Central2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Gage Lattimore | G | So | 6'2" | 31-31 | 36.8 | 16.6 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 49.6% | 39.2% | 6.7 | 86.7% | 26.7% | |
| 2 | Dionte Johnson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 48.2% | 32.9% | 2.7 | 76.8% | 20.3% | |
| 21 | Kelechi Okworogwo | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-13 | 25.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 54.0% | 20.0% | 0.6 | 69.1% | 18.7% | |
| 5 | Tekao Carpenter | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-22 | 25.9 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 46.9% | 31.6% | 3.8 | 75.5% | 18.4% | |
| 1 | Kyric Davis | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-17 | 22.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50.8% | 11.8% | 0.5 | 72.5% | 23.9% | |
| 8 | Jae Slack | F | Sr | 6'6" | 26-10 | 23.9 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 35.7% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 25.8% | |
| 7 | Khouri Carvey | F | Sr | 6'9" | 22-21 | 26.2 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 58.1% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 55.3% | 30.0% | |
| 10 | Ryan Archey | G | So | 6'0" | 25-0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 42.5% | 28.6% | 0.8 | 61.9% | 32.3% | |
| 22 | Ramondo Battle II | F | Sr | 6'8" | 19-5 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 32.8% | 18.2% | 1.7 | 52.9% | 23.4% | |
| 13 | Jonathan Dunn | F | Jr | 6'7" | 11-9 | 13.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 54.5% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 55.0% | 18.1% | |
| 12 | Justin Edwards | G | Sr | 5'9" | 18-0 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 28.1% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 80.0% | 14.0% | |
| 3 | Khalil Arnold | G | Jr | 6'4" | 10-0 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 47.2% | 38.5% | 1.3 | — | 16.5% | |
| 9 | Gbenga Olubi | F | Sr | 6'7" | 15-0 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 31.8% | 33.3% | 0.2 | — | 13.2% | |
| 4 | Camren Daniels | G | Fr | 6'5" | 9-0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 31.8% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 25.4% | |
| 0 | Caleb Ellison | G | So | 6'0" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 7.5% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
SC Upstate2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Carmelo Adkins | G | So | 6'4" | 32-15 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 47.2% | 33.0% | 5.9 | 80.7% | 28.5% | |
| 1 | Karmani Gregory | G | Jr | 6'1" | 31-30 | 30.5 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 49.0% | 32.8% | 5.9 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 9 | Mason Bendinger | G | Jr | 6'4" | 32-31 | 29.4 | 14.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47.0% | 31.1% | 2.3 | 53.8% | 32.3% | |
| 0 | Tyler Smith | G | Jr | 6'0" | 31-16 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 40.9% | 29.8% | 1.5 | 67.6% | 17.1% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Skinner | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-8 | 20.0 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 51.8% | 34.9% | 3.3 | 85.7% | 16.2% | |
| 11 | Learic Davis | F | Jr | 6'6" | 28-20 | 21.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 32.8% | 2.4 | 75.0% | 21.9% | |
| 12 | Jafeth Martinez | F | Jr | 6'9" | 31-20 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 67.6% | — | 0.0 | 65.6% | 12.6% | |
| 7 | Coen Collier | C | Jr | 7'1" | 30-9 | 14.1 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 43.1% | 22.2% | 0.3 | 37.5% | 10.3% | |
| 10 | Breylin Garcia | F | Sr | 6'6" | 21-7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 60.6% | — | 0.0 | 55.6% | 25.4% | |
| 6 | Kanye Jones | G | Jr | 6'5" | 22-1 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 26.3% | 0.9 | 81.3% | 16.7% | |
| 24 | Chico Johnson | G | So | 6'2" | 10-0 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 47.7% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 50.0% | 18.4% | |
| 8 | Nic Book | F | So | 6'8" | 7-2 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 81.3% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 21 | CJ Rich | G | Jr | 5'9" | 4-1 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 78.6% | 75.0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 13.8% | |
| 5 | TJ Lewis | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26SC Upstate
Against the spread
Season
13-16
Home
6-6
Road
7-9
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
13-15-1
Home
6-5-1
Road
7-9
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −2.4
Under 3 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdogOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Gardner-Webb | N | L 64–65 | −11.0 | L−12.0 | 144.0 | U129 | 99.1 | 100.7 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 71–61 | −13.5 | L−3.5 | 146.5 | U132 | 101.0 | 86.8 | 70.3 |
| Feb 26 | Radford | A | L 59–71 | +8.0 | L−4.0 | 153.0 | U130 | 87.6 | 105.4 | 67.4 |
| Feb 21 | Presbyterian | H | W 76–74 | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 141.5 | O150 | 118.0 | 114.9 | 64.4 |
| Feb 19 | Winthrop | A | L 64–68 | +13.0 | W+9.0 | 155.0 | U132 | 95.3 | 101.2 | 67.2 |
| Feb 14 | Longwood | A | L 75–82 OT | +6.0 | L−1.0 | 146.5 | O157 | 89.6 | 98.0 | 83.7 |
| Feb 12 | High Point | H | L 70–95 | +14.0 | L−11.0 | 154.5 | O165 | 93.3 | 126.6 | 75.1 |
| Feb 7 | Charleston So | H | W 100–94 OT | +1.0 | W+7.0 | 151.5 | O194 | 129.9 | 122.1 | 77.0 |
| Feb 4 | UNC Asheville | A | L 67–76 | +6.5 | L−2.5 | 140.5 | O143 | 99.2 | 112.5 | 67.6 |
| Jan 29 | Longwood | H | W 65–60 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 147.5 | U125 | 92.3 | 85.2 | 70.4 |
NC Central
Against the spread
Season
15-13
Home
3-6
Road
9-7
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −4.2
Covered 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-14-1
Home
4-5
Road
8-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14 | Howard | N | L 63–70 | +11.5 | W+4.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 101.2 | 112.4 | 62.3 |
| Mar 13 | Delaware St | N | W 59–53 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 131.0 | U112 | 104.5 | 93.9 | 56.4 |
| Mar 12 | MD Eastern | N | W 83–76 OT | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 132.0 | O159 | 119.6 | 109.5 | 69.4 |
| Mar 5 | SC State | H | L 64–80 | −7.5 | L−23.5 | 141.5 | O144 | 91.7 | 114.6 | 69.8 |
| Mar 2 | MD Eastern | A | W 77–73 | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 133.5 | O150 | 112.8 | 106.9 | 68.3 |
| Feb 28 | Delaware St | A | W 74–60 | −2.5 | W+11.5 | 135.5 | U134 | 120.3 | 97.5 | 61.5 |
| Feb 21 | Howard | A | L 67–100 | +12.5 | L−20.5 | 143.0 | O167 | 94.0 | 140.3 | 71.3 |
| Feb 18 | SC State | A | L 72–85 | −3.0 | L−16.0 | 137.5 | O157 | 107.9 | 127.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 16 | Morgan St | H | W 80–76 | −5.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | O156 | 109.7 | 104.3 | 72.9 |
| Feb 14 | Coppin St | H | L 56–58 | −11.0 | L−13.0 | 145.5 | U114 | 89.6 | 92.8 | 62.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSC UpstateNC Central
Efficiency
102.8
103.2
109.0
115.7
68.5
67.3
—
—
Shooting
48.3%
47.5%
48.9%
46.7%
31.4%
32.6%
68.1%
73.8%
32.8%
39.3%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
18.1%
16.4%
19.9%
29.2%
30.0%
31.4%
39.4%
10.6%
9.4%
11.0%
12.4%
Style
35.6%
33.9%
46.2%
41.7%
14.5%
17.3%
46.0%
52.7%
35.4%
26.5%
Roster
2.98
3.53
6'4.5"
6'3.9"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSC Upstate
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SC Upstate's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
NC Central
Returning minutes: 99.6%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted NC Central's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 25 | 2025-26 | NC Central 67 – 82 SC Upstate |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.