CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteCareFirst Arena, Washington, DCChris Paul HBCU Classic

Florida A&M

Efficiency #316

2025-26: 15-16 · 12-8 conf

Tennessee St

Efficiency #155

2025-26: 23-10 · 17-5 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · 7:00 PM ET

71.2

win 28%

Projected

78.1

win 72%

No line posted yet.

Model: TNST −6.9 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Tennessee St 70.3, Florida A&M 68.8 → 70.8 possessions

+5.3

Tennessee St offense vs Florida A&M defense

+1.3

Florida A&M offense vs Tennessee St defense

−5.6

Projected total

149.3

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Tennessee St offense vs Florida A&M defense

+1.3

Florida A&M offense vs Tennessee St defense

+5.6

Tennessee St by 6.9

6.9

Florida A&M side ◂▸ Tennessee St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.2 against a projected 149.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Tennessee St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Tennessee St is the faster team (70.8, #61 of 365) and Florida A&M the slower (70.3, #81). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.3

model

Projected team totals

71.2 / 78.1

Florida A&M / Tennessee St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#135

Florida A&M

70.3#32

Tennessee St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFlorida A&M

Where Florida A&M struggles: ball control

Florida A&M turns it over on 21.5% of possessions (#359); Tennessee St forces turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions (#28). Expect about 21.4%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.7 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Tennessee St averages 70.8 possessions per 40, Florida A&M 70.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseTennessee St

Tennessee St's ball-hawking

Tennessee St ranks #14 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.7% of Florida A&M's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashTennessee St

Style match: 3-point volume

Tennessee St rarely shoots threes (30.7% of its shots); Florida A&M runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.2% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageTennessee St

Where Tennessee St scores: the offensive glass

Tennessee St rebounds 34.8% of its own misses (#53); Florida A&M lets opponents grab 30.9% of their own misses (#198). Expect about 33.7%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversTennessee St

Tennessee St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Tennessee St's offense.

Florida A&M has the ball

OffenseTennessee St allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #283

51.6% #190

-1.5 pt/100

21.5% #359

19.8% #28

-5.7 pt/100

30.9% #168

30.6% #184

+0.2 pt/100

37.4% #116

41.4% #317

+0.6 pt/100

70.3% #264

—

-0.2 pt/100

Florida A&M net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.5 pts/100

Tennessee St has the ball

OffenseFlorida A&M allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

51.2% #171

-1.1 pt/100

16.7% #176

19.1% #43

-1.8 pt/100

34.8% #53

30.9% #198

+2.0 pt/100

33.4% #228

39.6% #299

+0.2 pt/100

76.0% #52

—

+0.3 pt/100

Tennessee St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Florida A&Moffense vsTennessee Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Florida A&M shoots

40.3

7.2

15.5

37.0

Tennessee St allows

44.2

6.1

14.2

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.7%#208	56.3%#93	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.0%#303	42.9%#247	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.9%#347	40.7%#264	38.0%
Three	32.6%#249	34.0%#183	33.7%

Tennessee Stoffense vsFlorida A&Mdefense

Share of shots by zone

Tennessee St shoots

40.8

6.0

23.8

29.5

Florida A&M allows

41.7

6.4

17.5

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.4%#151	57.1%#115	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.0%#303	43.8%#265	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	33.3%#35	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	34.9%#243	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Florida A&M

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#272 of 365

Off reb %

30.9%

#168

Def reb %

69.1%

#198

Turnover %

21.5%

#359

Forced TO %

19.1%

#43

FT rate

37.4%

#116

FT allowed

39.6%

#299

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−3.3

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Tennessee St

+1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#115 of 365

Off reb %

34.8%

#53

Def reb %

69.4%

#184

Turnover %

16.7%

#176

Forced TO %

19.8%

#28

FT rate

33.4%

#228

FT allowed

41.4%

#317

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.4

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers+2.1

Foul shots drawn−0.4

Foul shots allowed−1.6

Tennessee St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.6 (#115 of 365) to Florida A&M’s −2.0 (#272).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Florida A&M2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Florida A&M's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jaquan Sanders	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	31.8	11.7	3.1	3.6	2.4	49.6%	34.1%	5.8	83.7%	23.7%
22	Tyler Shirley	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	30.5	12.0	5.1	2.0	2.8	47.5%	31.1%	2.9	78.3%	27.1%
2	Jordan Chatman	G	Sr	6'4"	31-23	26.5	9.1	3.2	1.1	1.2	54.3%	36.9%	5.1	76.0%	19.4%
1	Antonio Baker Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	29-17	27.0	9.9	3.6	1.9	1.9	47.4%	24.4%	1.4	83.8%	23.9%
11	Micah Octave	G	Sr	6'5"	22-19	32.6	10.0	8.1	1.9	2.0	58.3%	38.0%	3.6	63.8%	18.2%
10	Kaleb Washington	F	Sr	6'8"	28-7	20.5	8.5	3.1	1.4	2.0	47.5%	33.3%	1.5	77.3%	28.1%
34	Miles Ndalama	C	Jr	6'11"	25-25	22.9	7.4	4.5	0.8	1.7	58.9%	0.0%	0.0	48.8%	20.6%
4	Anquan Boldin Jr	G	Jr	6'4"	22-5	18.1	5.8	3.0	0.9	1.2	50.5%	21.1%	0.9	47.5%	21.2%
0	Lenard Taylor Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	20-0	9.2	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	32.1%	20.0%	0.8	50.0%	18.6%
12	Anthony Knowles	G	Fr	6'0"	18-1	8.7	2.0	0.8	0.4	0.7	28.7%	20.6%	1.9	75.0%	23.5%
13	Devere Palmer Jr	G	Jr	6'6"	4-1	17.0	7.8	3.5	1.0	0.5	45.0%	—	0.0	65.0%	24.7%
55	Tuscan Onuoha	F	Jr	6'11"	4-0	5.0	2.5	0.3	0.0	0.5	62.5%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	31.7%
14	Malcolm Stute	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	2.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	10.3%
8	Amir Rahman	G	Fr	6'3"	8-0	1.4	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	29.2%
23	Jacobi Hall	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tennessee St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Dante Harris	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	32.3	11.7	3.6	4.5	1.9	43.9%	30.0%	1.5	72.6%	24.1%
2	Travis Harper II	G	Sr	6'6"	33-32	31.3	17.1	4.1	1.2	1.5	57.4%	39.1%	6.3	85.7%	27.2%
12	Carlous Williams	F	Sr	6'5"	32-9	19.4	5.6	3.1	0.5	1.1	50.7%	32.1%	1.7	76.7%	18.0%
3	Khalil London	G	So	6'3"	24-0	15.3	6.4	1.6	1.1	1.3	39.7%	23.6%	3.0	75.0%	30.1%
7	Jabrion Spikes	G	Sr	6'2"	30-0	10.9	3.0	1.3	0.3	0.6	53.3%	25.0%	0.7	69.2%	16.7%
23	Kavien Jones	F	Fr	6'7"	30-0	10.6	2.7	2.4	0.2	0.2	60.3%	40.0%	0.2	44.4%	13.0%
1	Damon Howard Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	21-0	7.3	1.7	0.7	0.9	0.3	32.2%	25.0%	1.0	77.8%	20.2%
4	JC Brooks	F	So	6'10"	18-1	8.1	1.7	2.0	0.3	0.5	47.8%	28.6%	0.4	60.0%	14.4%
31	Alex Garcia	F	Jr	6'9"	10-0	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	43.8%	16.7%	0.6	—	23.2%
20	Jayden Jones	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	37.5%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	32.6%
21	Jean Yvens Lafleur	F	Jr	6'11"	2-0	6.0	1.0	2.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	—	13.0%
5	Maddux Bodenhamer	G	So	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Ogien Ayo	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Florida A&M2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Florida A&M's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jaquan Sanders	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	31.8	11.7	3.1	3.6	2.4	49.6%	34.1%	5.8	83.7%	23.7%
22	Tyler Shirley	F	Sr	6'8"	31-31	30.5	12.0	5.1	2.0	2.8	47.5%	31.1%	2.9	78.3%	27.1%
2	Jordan Chatman	G	Sr	6'4"	31-23	26.5	9.1	3.2	1.1	1.2	54.3%	36.9%	5.1	76.0%	19.4%
1	Antonio Baker Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	29-17	27.0	9.9	3.6	1.9	1.9	47.4%	24.4%	1.4	83.8%	23.9%
11	Micah Octave	G	Sr	6'5"	22-19	32.6	10.0	8.1	1.9	2.0	58.3%	38.0%	3.6	63.8%	18.2%
10	Kaleb Washington	F	Sr	6'8"	28-7	20.5	8.5	3.1	1.4	2.0	47.5%	33.3%	1.5	77.3%	28.1%
34	Miles Ndalama	C	Jr	6'11"	25-25	22.9	7.4	4.5	0.8	1.7	58.9%	0.0%	0.0	48.8%	20.6%
4	Anquan Boldin Jr	G	Jr	6'4"	22-5	18.1	5.8	3.0	0.9	1.2	50.5%	21.1%	0.9	47.5%	21.2%
0	Lenard Taylor Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	20-0	9.2	1.8	1.4	0.1	0.7	32.1%	20.0%	0.8	50.0%	18.6%
12	Anthony Knowles	G	Fr	6'0"	18-1	8.7	2.0	0.8	0.4	0.7	28.7%	20.6%	1.9	75.0%	23.5%
13	Devere Palmer Jr	G	Jr	6'6"	4-1	17.0	7.8	3.5	1.0	0.5	45.0%	—	0.0	65.0%	24.7%
55	Tuscan Onuoha	F	Jr	6'11"	4-0	5.0	2.5	0.3	0.0	0.5	62.5%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	31.7%
14	Malcolm Stute	G	Fr	6'4"	9-0	2.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	0.0%	10.3%
8	Amir Rahman	G	Fr	6'3"	8-0	1.4	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	29.2%
23	Jacobi Hall	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Florida A&M

Against the spread

Season

16-12-1

Home

6-4-1

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

3-8

Road

7-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +4.2

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	SouthernAdjEM #286	N	L 70–73	+2.0	L−1.0	140.5	O143	97.7	101.9	71.6
Mar 11	Jackson StAdjEM #353	N	W 70–60	−6.5	W+3.5	142.5	U130	100.0	85.7	70.0
Mar 5	BethuneAdjEM #260	H	W 81–77	+2.5	W+6.5	145.5	O158	112.9	107.3	71.8
Feb 28	GramblingAdjEM #290	A	W 66–59	+5.0	W+12.0	141.0	U125	97.9	87.5	67.4
Feb 26	SouthernAdjEM #286	A	W 82–71	+9.0	W+20.0	146.5	O153	116.6	100.9	70.3
Feb 21	Alabama StAdjEM #324	H	W 76–63	+1.5	W+14.5	144.5	U139	108.8	90.2	69.8
Feb 19	Alabama A&MAdjEM #312	H	L 61–63	−2.0	L−4.0	139.5	U124	96.8	100.0	63.0
Feb 16	Alcorn StAdjEM #355	A	W 86–78	−1.5	W+6.5	137.0	O164	120.1	109.0	71.6
Feb 14	Jackson StAdjEM #353	A	L 60–80	−2.0	L−22.0	144.0	U140	86.4	115.2	69.4
Feb 9	Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	H	W 100–96	−3.0	W+1.0	149.0	O196	116.4	111.8	85.9

Tennessee St

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

5-5

Road

11-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +8.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

5-5

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.1

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#2Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	L 74–108	+25.0	L−9.0	147.5	O182	94.4	137.7	78.4
Mar 7	Morehead StAdjEM #266	N	W 93–67	−5.0	W+21.0	144.0	O160	133.2	96.0	69.8
Mar 6	UT MartinAdjEM #182	N	W 68–55	−2.0	W+11.0	137.5	U123	111.4	90.1	61.1
Feb 28	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	W 67–42	+2.5	W+27.5	143.5	U109	101.5	63.6	66.0
Feb 26	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	W 79–71	+3.5	W+11.5	152.0	U150	107.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 21	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	W 80–53	−4.5	W+22.5	143.5	U133	125.6	83.2	63.7
Feb 19	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	W 89–80	−3.5	W+5.5	159.0	O169	112.2	100.9	79.3
Feb 14	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 86–94	−1.5	L−9.5	151.0	O180	124.3	135.8	69.2
Feb 12	S IndianaAdjEM #333	A	W 73–71	−6.0	L−4.0	148.5	U144	110.2	107.2	66.2
Feb 7	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	H	W 83–56	−14.5	W+12.5	151.0	U139	121.9	82.3	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Florida A&MTennessee St

Efficiency

100.7

109.4

109.5

108.3

68.8

70.3

—

Shooting

49.2%

50.0%

49.4%

50.0%

32.6%

33.3%

70.3%

76.0%

37.4%

33.4%

Ball control & glass

21.5%

16.7%

19.1%

19.8%

30.9%

34.8%

30.9%

30.6%

12.5%

10.3%

9.7%

7.7%

Style

37.7%

30.7%

44.1%

45.1%

14.2%

18.3%

52.6%

45.5%

29.4%

29.7%

Roster

3.61

3.38

6'5.5"

6'3.7"

—

61.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Florida A&M

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Florida A&M's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Tennessee St

Returning minutes: 61.6%Returning production: 51.9%

Lost

Aaron Nkrumah 31.3 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jalen Pitre 24.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Antoine Lorick III 21.5 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Maddux Bodenhamer no D1 minutes last season
Ogien Ayo no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.