CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.8 against +14.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help McNeese.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, McNeese is the faster team (66.4, #282 of 365) and Hou Christian the slower (64.4, #344). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#265 | 54.1%#42 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.7%#202 | 40.0%#191 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.2%#283 | 36.0%#109 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#291 | 32.7%#102 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.3%#219 | 63.2%#330 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.1%#103 | 33.0%#30 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.3%#103 | 39.5%#219 | 38.0% |
| Three | 31.7%#290 | 35.0%#248 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMcNeese has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#12 of 365) to Hou Christian’s −0.2 (#187).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kylin Green | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-30 | 31.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 40.5% | 27.4% | 2.6 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 8 | Trent Johnson | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-27 | 30.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 59.6% | 40.3% | 4.0 | 81.7% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Ryan Bartley | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-22 | 29.4 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49.8% | 32.3% | 4.2 | 77.8% | 20.4% | |
| 23 | Demarco Bethea | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-28 | 25.8 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 57.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | D'Aundre Samuels | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-13 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 47.8% | 33.1% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Demari Williams | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-15 | 22.0 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 51.3% | 30.9% | 1.9 | 79.4% | 27.1% | |
| 21 | Mambourou Mara | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-14 | 19.3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 46.4% | 21.3% | 2.0 | 55.6% | 21.5% | |
| 4 | Elijah Brooks | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-8 | 30.4 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 1.9 | 58.1% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Nehikhare Igiehon | F | Sr | 6'7" | 19-2 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 56.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 21.9% | |
| 10 | Caleb Gaston | F | Jr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.0% | |
| 13 | Ahjany Lee | F | Jr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 81.8% | — | 0.0 | 62.5% | 11.8% | |
| 24 | Bryson Monroe | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-1 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 9.0% | |
| 9 | Obadiah Curtis | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 36.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 2 | Will Wilson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 17.3% | |
| 32 | Brennen Byrd | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javohn Garcia | G | Sr | 6'3" | 30-30 | 29.7 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.3% | 37.4% | 3.6 | 76.7% | 22.5% | |
| 8 | Tyshawn Archie | G | Jr | 6'1" | 34-24 | 25.6 | 14.3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 51.2% | 36.9% | 5.2 | 90.0% | 34.2% | |
| 6 | Larry Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 34-26 | 25.4 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 52.1% | 23.8% | 3.1 | 77.7% | 38.6% | |
| 2 | DJ Richards Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 34-9 | 22.0 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 51.4% | 35.9% | 5.0 | 78.5% | 22.2% | |
| 7 | Jerrell Colbert | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-24 | 19.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 55.6% | 20.0% | 0.1 | 56.0% | 18.4% | |
| 10 | Jacolb Fredson-Cole | F | So | 6'7" | 34-15 | 18.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 42.0% | 13.5% | 1.1 | 77.4% | 20.0% | |
| 23 | Carl Cherenfant | G | Jr | 6'5" | 33-15 | 16.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 21.4% | 0.8 | 73.5% | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Peitok Machar | F | So | 6'10" | 34-6 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 70.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.7% | 13.5% | |
| 13 | Yanis Ndjonga | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-4 | 10.7 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 65.9% | 33.3% | 0.2 | 83.3% | 11.7% | |
| 9 | JJ Rembert | G | Fr | 5'10" | 8-0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 18.0% | |
| 27 | Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Erik Villarreal | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Kaleb Brewer | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | T'Johnn Brown | G | Jr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kylin Green | G | Sr | 6'0" | 32-30 | 31.1 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 40.5% | 27.4% | 2.6 | 73.7% | 26.4% | |
| 8 | Trent Johnson | F | Sr | 6'6" | 32-27 | 30.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 59.6% | 40.3% | 4.0 | 81.7% | 15.3% | |
| 1 | Ryan Bartley | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-22 | 29.4 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49.8% | 32.3% | 4.2 | 77.8% | 20.4% | |
| 23 | Demarco Bethea | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-28 | 25.8 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 57.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 57.5% | 24.6% | |
| 5 | D'Aundre Samuels | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-13 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 47.8% | 33.1% | 3.9 | 77.8% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Demari Williams | G | Jr | 6'5" | 29-15 | 22.0 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 51.3% | 30.9% | 1.9 | 79.4% | 27.1% | |
| 21 | Mambourou Mara | F | Jr | 6'6" | 31-14 | 19.3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 46.4% | 21.3% | 2.0 | 55.6% | 21.5% | |
| 4 | Elijah Brooks | G | Sr | 6'3" | 8-8 | 30.4 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 44.5% | 20.0% | 1.9 | 58.1% | 32.3% | |
| 7 | Nehikhare Igiehon | F | Sr | 6'7" | 19-2 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 56.9% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 50.0% | 21.9% | |
| 10 | Caleb Gaston | F | Jr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 15.0% | |
| 13 | Ahjany Lee | F | Jr | 6'8" | 18-0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 81.8% | — | 0.0 | 62.5% | 11.8% | |
| 24 | Bryson Monroe | G | Sr | 6'1" | 12-1 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 9.0% | |
| 9 | Obadiah Curtis | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 36.4% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 2 | Will Wilson | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 17.3% | |
| 32 | Brennen Byrd | F | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | LSU N Orleans | N | L 60–73 | +4.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | U133 | 84.9 | 103.3 | 70.7 |
| Mar 2 | Lamar | H | W 75–53 | +2.5 | W+24.5 | 134.0 | U128 | 112.3 | 79.4 | 66.8 |
| Feb 28 | SF Austin | H | L 56–77 | +8.5 | L−12.5 | 137.5 | U133 | 89.4 | 122.9 | 62.6 |
| Feb 23 | East Texas A&M | A | W 69–68 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 139.5 | U137 | 107.6 | 106.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | N'Western St | A | L 53–71 | +2.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U124 | 83.6 | 112.1 | 63.4 |
| Feb 16 | Nicholls | H | W 72–68 | −2.0 | W+2.0 | 138.5 | O140 | 106.9 | 100.9 | 67.4 |
| Feb 14 | LSU N Orleans | H | W 61–60 | −1.0 | P0.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 98.2 | 96.6 | 62.1 |
| Feb 9 | McNeese | A | L 69–73 | +20.5 | W+16.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 102.1 | 108.1 | 67.6 |
| Feb 7 | SE Louisiana | A | L 47–55 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 133.5 | U102 | 83.2 | 97.4 | 56.5 |
| Feb 2 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 57–74 | +9.0 | L−8.0 | 141.5 | U131 | 92.1 | 119.6 | 61.9 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #5Vanderbilt | N | L 68–78 | +12.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | U146 | 106.4 | 122.1 | 63.9 |
| Mar 11 | SF Austin | N | W 76–59 | −3.5 | W+13.5 | 134.5 | O135 | 119.0 | 92.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 10 | UT Rio Grande | N | W 84–80 3OT | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 141.0 | O164 | 98.4 | 93.8 | 85.3 |
| Mar 2 | Nicholls | A | W 75–65 | −10.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U140 | 111.5 | 96.6 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | LSU N Orleans | A | W 66–63 | −10.0 | L−7.0 | 150.5 | U129 | 102.1 | 97.5 | 64.6 |
| Feb 23 | UT Rio Grande | H | W 75–68 | −12.0 | L−5.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 108.8 | 98.7 | 68.9 |
| Feb 21 | Texas A&M-CC | H | W 70–54 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 140.5 | U124 | 106.7 | 82.3 | 65.6 |
| Feb 16 | N'Western St | A | W 75–64 | −14.0 | L−3.0 | 137.5 | O139 | 118.2 | 100.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 14 | East Texas A&M | A | W 97–54 | −13.5 | W+29.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 142.4 | 79.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Hou Christian | H | W 73–69 | −20.5 | L−16.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 108.1 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputReturns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
- Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Kaleb Brewer no D1 minutes last season
- T'Johnn Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Erik Villarreal no D1 minutes last season
- Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Feb 9 | 2025-26 | Hou Christian 69 – 73 McNeese |
| Mon, Dec 15 | 2025-26 | McNeese 78 – 68 Hou Christian |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.