CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameTownsley Law Arena, Lake Charles, LA
Hou Christian
Efficiency #297
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-15 conf
@
McNeese
Efficiency #49
2025-26: 28-6 · 21-3 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 5:00 PM ET
63.1
win 10%
Projected
77.8
win 90%
No line posted yet.
Model: MCN −14.7 · total 140.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: McNeese 67.4, Hou Christian 66.2 → 65.3 possessions
−6.5
McNeese offense vs Hou Christian defense
+5.1
Hou Christian offense vs McNeese defense
−5.9
Projected total
140.9
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
McNeese offense vs Hou Christian defense
+5.1
Hou Christian offense vs McNeese defense
+5.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
McNeese by 14.7
14.7
Hou Christian side ◂▸ McNeese side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.8 against +14.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help McNeese.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, McNeese is the faster team (66.4, #282 of 365) and Hou Christian the slower (64.4, #344). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
140.9
model
Projected team totals
63.1 / 77.8
Hou Christian / McNeese
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#335
Hou Christian
67.4#255
McNeese

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageHou Christian
Where Hou Christian struggles: ball control
Hou Christian turns it over on 18.9% of possessions (#315); McNeese forces turnovers on 24.5% of opponent possessions (#1). Expect about 22.9%, 6.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.5 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's shot-blocking
McNeese ranks #4 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.0% of Hou Christian's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Pace
Half-court grind
McNeese averages 66.4 possessions per 40, Hou Christian 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseMcNeese
McNeese's ball-hawking
McNeese ranks #1 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.7% of Hou Christian's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
AdvantageMcNeese
Where McNeese scores: the offensive glass
McNeese rebounds 35.1% of its own misses (#46); Hou Christian lets opponents grab 32.5% of their own misses (#279). Expect about 34.7%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashHou Christian
Style match: ball movement
Hou Christian assists on 58.7% of its made baskets; McNeese allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.6% — both habits push the same way.
Hou Christian has the ball
OffenseMcNeese allowsvs D1 avg
49.7% #252
49.3% #76
-2.7 pt/100
18.9% #315
24.5% #1
-7.5 pt/100
29.9% #205
34.9% #338
+1.1 pt/100
36.0% #151
42.1% #323
+0.6 pt/100
69.4% #288
—
-0.3 pt/100
Hou Christian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.8 pts/100
McNeese has the ball
OffenseHou Christian allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #202
54.2% #304
+1.6 pt/100
14.2% #28
17.6% #117
+1.2 pt/100
35.1% #46
32.5% #279
+2.6 pt/100
37.4% #114
30.7% #79
-0.2 pt/100
74.4% #109
—
+0.2 pt/100
McNeese net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Hou Christianoffense vsMcNeesedefense
Share of shots by zone
Hou Christian shoots
McNeese allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.2%#26554.1%#4258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.7%#20240.0%#19139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.2%#28336.0%#10938.0%
Three31.7%#29132.7%#10233.7%
McNeeseoffense vsHou Christiandefense
Share of shots by zone
McNeese shoots
Hou Christian allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.3%#21963.2%#33058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.1%#10333.0%#3039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10339.5%#21938.0%
Three31.7%#29035.0%#24833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Hou Christian
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#187 of 365
Off reb %
29.9%
#205
Def reb %
67.5%
#279
Turnover %
18.9%
#315
Forced TO %
17.6%
#117
FT rate
36.0%
#151
FT allowed
30.7%
#79
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.4
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.2
McNeese
+6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#12 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#46
Def reb %
65.1%
#338
Turnover %
14.2%
#28
Forced TO %
24.5%
#1
FT rate
37.4%
#114
FT allowed
42.1%
#323
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers+5.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7

McNeese has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.1 (#12 of 365) to Hou Christian’s −0.2 (#187).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hou Christian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Kylin GreenGSr6'0"32-3031.110.33.84.52.540.5%27.4%2.673.7%26.4%
8Trent JohnsonFSr6'6"32-2730.88.23.42.41.259.6%40.3%4.081.7%15.3%
1Ryan BartleyGSr6'6"32-2229.49.12.71.31.049.8%32.3%4.277.8%20.4%
23Demarco BetheaFSr6'7"32-2825.810.04.91.21.757.3%0.0%0.357.5%24.6%
5D'Aundre SamuelsGJr6'2"32-1322.48.63.32.01.747.8%33.1%3.977.8%28.2%
0Demari WilliamsGJr6'5"29-1522.09.73.20.91.251.3%30.9%1.979.4%27.1%
21Mambourou MaraFJr6'6"31-1419.35.43.80.71.246.4%21.3%2.055.6%21.5%
4Elijah BrooksGSr6'3"8-830.412.34.53.12.644.5%20.0%1.958.1%32.3%
7Nehikhare IgiehonFSr6'7"19-210.43.62.20.30.656.9%0.0%0.150.0%21.9%
10Caleb GastonFJr6'7"23-05.00.70.70.10.333.3%0.0%0.450.0%15.0%
13Ahjany LeeFJr6'8"18-05.11.31.00.10.281.8%—0.062.5%11.8%
24Bryson MonroeGSr6'1"12-13.30.20.10.00.225.0%0.0%0.2—9.0%
9Obadiah CurtisGSr6'4"4-09.02.81.80.00.836.4%33.3%1.575.0%24.2%
2Will WilsonGSr6'3"1-06.02.00.00.01.0——0.0100.0%17.3%
32Brennen ByrdFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Hou ChristianMcNeese
Efficiency
104.6
113.0
111.7
103.4
66.2
67.4
—
—
Shooting
49.7%
50.7%
50.9%
52.3%
31.7%
31.7%
69.4%
74.4%
36.0%
37.4%
Ball control & glass
18.9%
14.2%
17.6%
24.5%
29.9%
35.1%
32.5%
34.9%
10.6%
6.7%
9.9%
6.7%
Style
36.5%
35.2%
46.6%
46.2%
12.1%
19.1%
58.7%
49.0%
27.5%
40.0%
Roster
3.66
2.91
6'4.6"
6'5.1"
—
86.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Hou Christian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hou Christian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

McNeese
Returning minutes: 86.9%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
  • Garwey Dual 26.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Added
  • Kaleb Brewer no D1 minutes last season
  • T'Johnn Brown no D1 minutes last season
  • Erik Villarreal no D1 minutes last season
  • Abdou Akim Mazou Tahirou no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Mon, Feb 92025-26Hou Christian 69 – 73 McNeese
Mon, Dec 152025-26McNeese 78 – 68 Hou Christian

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.