CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteBOK Center, Tulsa, OK
Arizona St
Efficiency #93
2025-26: 17-16 · 8-12 conf
vs
Oklahoma
Efficiency #47
2025-26: 21-16 · 9-12 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
75.9
win 37%
Projected
79.6
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: OU −3.7 · total 155.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Oklahoma 67.7, Arizona St 69.5 → 68.9 possessions
+1.4
Oklahoma offense vs Arizona St defense
+4.8
Arizona St offense vs Oklahoma defense
+1.1
Projected total
155.5
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Oklahoma offense vs Arizona St defense
+4.8
Arizona St offense vs Oklahoma defense
−1.1
Oklahoma by 3.7
3.7
Arizona St side ◂▸ Oklahoma side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oklahoma.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona St is the faster team (70.6, #71 of 365) and Oklahoma the slower (68.5, #174). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.5
model
Projected team totals
75.9 / 79.6
Arizona St / Oklahoma
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#79
Arizona St
67.7#232
Oklahoma

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageOklahoma
Where Oklahoma scores: shooting
Oklahoma shoots an effective 54.9% (#40); Arizona St allows 52.4% (#235). Expect about 53.9%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseArizona St
Arizona St's shot-blocking
Arizona St ranks #30 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Oklahoma's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
GlassOklahoma
Oklahoma owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.3% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Oklahoma's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Oklahoma) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Arizona St at about 39.2% of its shots from three, Oklahoma about 43.3%.
Arizona St has the ball
OffenseOklahoma allowsvs D1 avg
51.1% #190
51.0% #162
-0.3 pt/100
17.1% #213
15.5% #254
+0.8 pt/100
29.8% #206
32.9% #296
+0.5 pt/100
39.5% #66
34.9% #176
+0.3 pt/100
75.3% #73
—
+0.3 pt/100
Arizona St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
Oklahoma has the ball
OffenseArizona St allowsvs D1 avg
54.9% #40
52.4% #235
+3.8 pt/100
14.4% #37
18.5% #77
+0.4 pt/100
32.8% #92
34.9% #337
+2.4 pt/100
35.5% #161
34.3% #160
-0.0 pt/100
75.4% #68
—
+0.3 pt/100
Oklahoma net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Arizona Stoffense vsOklahomadefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
Oklahoma allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.9%#11960.1%#23558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.0%#12240.3%#19639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17735.0%#7738.0%
Three33.4%#20234.1%#18933.7%
Oklahomaoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Oklahoma shoots
Arizona St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.5%#14359.3%#20458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.8%#2543.1%#25339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4639.2%#20938.0%
Three36.5%#4135.0%#24933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Arizona St
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#149 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#206
Def reb %
65.1%
#337
Turnover %
17.1%
#213
Forced TO %
18.5%
#77
FT rate
39.5%
#66
FT allowed
34.3%
#160
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Oklahoma
+1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#134 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#92
Def reb %
67.1%
#296
Turnover %
14.4%
#37
Forced TO %
15.5%
#254
FT rate
35.5%
#161
FT allowed
34.9%
#176
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Oklahoma has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.1 (#134 of 365) to Arizona St’s +0.8 (#149).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Arizona St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Maurice OdumGSr6'2"33-3333.816.43.15.73.251.3%37.7%7.282.9%29.7%
35Massamba DiopCFr7'1"33-3329.713.65.81.11.958.2%30.8%0.871.5%24.8%
2Anthony JohnsonGSr6'3"33-524.813.23.21.72.249.7%32.9%2.476.1%31.7%
15Noah MeeusenGSo6'5"30-1127.35.93.22.61.349.0%31.0%3.382.9%14.2%
1Santiago TrouetFSo6'11"31-3025.78.16.10.91.046.1%20.8%0.878.3%19.5%
14Andrija GrbovicFJr6'11"33-2719.96.82.90.40.651.9%35.0%3.778.9%19.4%
4Bryce FordGJr6'4"27-2022.46.91.60.80.647.3%31.4%3.882.9%18.6%
23Allen MukebaFSr6'8"33-616.45.53.50.80.956.1%25.0%0.153.2%19.9%
8Marcus Adams Jr.FJr6'8"14-011.73.62.40.20.543.9%29.6%1.970.0%19.7%
12Trevor BestGSo6'3"17-06.11.40.60.10.436.4%16.7%0.763.6%18.1%
11Kash PolkFFr6'10"1-01.00.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
3Adante' HolimanGSr5'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24Dame SalaneCFr7'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
70Jovan IcitovicFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Quentin McCoyGSo6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Vijay WallaceGJr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Arizona StOklahoma
Efficiency
110.9
117.5
106.4
107.7
69.5
67.7
—
—
Shooting
51.1%
54.9%
51.7%
55.1%
33.4%
36.5%
75.3%
75.4%
39.5%
35.5%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
14.4%
18.5%
15.5%
29.8%
32.8%
34.9%
32.9%
10.5%
8.2%
9.6%
10.2%
Style
38.4%
43.6%
41.8%
37.1%
16.3%
10.1%
53.0%
50.9%
32.3%
29.7%
Roster
2.82
3.67
6'7"
6'5.9"
—
38.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Arizona St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Oklahoma
Returning minutes: 38.4%Returning production: 36.7%
Lost
  • Nijel Pack 30.5 mpg, 16.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Tae Davis 29.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mohamed Wague 22.4 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jadon Jones 18.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kirill Elatontsev 8.6 mpg, 2.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Kuol Atak 8.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Duke Brennan from Villanova · 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
  • B.J. Edwards from SMU · 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
  • Tyler Hendricks from Utah Valley · 24.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Pop Isaacs from Texas A&M · 21.7 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
  • Khani Rooths from Louisville · 14.1 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
  • Yaak Yaak from Oregon St · 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season

Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Dec 62025-26Oklahoma 70 – 86 Arizona St(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.