CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCotterell Court, Hamilton, NY

Cornell

Efficiency #135

2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf

Colgate

Efficiency #223

2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

81.9

win 47%

Projected

82.8

win 53%

No line posted yet.

Model: COLG −0.9 · total 164.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Colgate 68.0, Cornell 70.9 → 70.6 possessions

+4.8

Colgate offense vs Cornell defense

+4.2

Cornell offense vs Colgate defense

+7.4

Projected total

164.6

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Colgate offense vs Cornell defense

+4.2

Cornell offense vs Colgate defense

−7.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Colgate by 0.9

0.9

Cornell side ◂▸ Colgate side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colgate.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Colgate the slower (66.9, #246). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

164.6

model

Projected team totals

81.9 / 82.8

Cornell / Colgate

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.9#19

Cornell

68.0#213

Colgate

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCornell

Where Cornell scores: shooting

Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Colgate allows 52.2% (#224). Expect about 55.9%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.6 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageColgate

Where Colgate scores: shooting

Colgate shoots an effective 53.3% (#91); Cornell allows 55.9% (#343). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversColgate

Colgate protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Colgate's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Cornell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Cornell at about 50.6% of its shots from three, Colgate about 35.1%.

TurnoversCornell

Cornell protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Cornell's offense.

GlassColgate

Colgate gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Colgate's offense.

Cornell has the ball

OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg

58.5% #7

52.2% #224

+6.6 pt/100

16.0% #139

15.3% #266

+1.7 pt/100

30.2% #193

29.3% #125

-0.4 pt/100

30.2% #304

33.8% #145

-0.4 pt/100

74.1% #124

—

+0.2 pt/100

Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.7 pts/100

Colgate has the ball

OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg

53.3% #91

55.9% #343

+5.0 pt/100

14.6% #47

15.1% #279

+2.8 pt/100

26.6% #309

30.6% #187

-1.6 pt/100

29.7% #316

37.2% #244

-0.2 pt/100

74.7% #97

—

+0.2 pt/100

Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cornelloffense vsColgatedefense

Share of shots by zone

Cornell shoots

38.5

2.3

8.1

51.1

Colgate allows

38.5

6.2

13.8

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.8%#77	59.1%#193	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	51.5%#7	39.3%#163	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#31	38.5%#178	38.0%
Three	38.3%#14	34.8%#238	33.7%

Colgateoffense vsCornelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Colgate shoots

37.9

6.0

21.2

34.9

Cornell allows

43.4

4.0

14.5

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.3%#155	60.7%#256	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.3%#98	44.6%#285	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.8%#18	41.7%#293	38.0%
Three	35.6%#81	37.5%#349	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cornell

−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#193

Def reb %

69.4%

#187

Turnover %

16.0%

#139

Forced TO %

15.1%

#279

FT rate

30.2%

#304

FT allowed

37.2%

#244

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Colgate

−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#309

Def reb %

70.7%

#125

Turnover %

14.6%

#47

Forced TO %

15.3%

#266

FT rate

29.7%

#316

FT allowed

33.8%

#145

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Colgate has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.3 (#247 of 365) to Cornell’s −2.4 (#281).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cornell2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Cooper Noard	G	Sr	6'2"	28-28	27.5	18.2	3.3	2.0	1.6	61.6%	37.6%	7.6	90.3%	31.6%
8	Adam Hinton	G	Sr	6'4"	28-28	24.6	12.5	3.1	1.9	1.3	59.1%	41.5%	4.8	77.6%	26.1%
5	Jacob Beccles	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	23.4	7.7	2.5	3.1	1.3	52.9%	32.8%	2.2	67.3%	19.8%
22	Jake Fiegen	G	Sr	6'4"	24-17	26.1	17.1	5.1	2.1	1.2	64.9%	41.4%	5.5	77.2%	30.4%
21	Kaspar Sepp	F	Jr	6'7"	28-15	18.8	4.8	5.5	2.6	1.3	50.5%	23.8%	0.8	66.0%	17.2%
24	Josh Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	26-13	19.0	7.4	4.1	3.2	1.7	52.2%	33.9%	2.3	70.0%	24.9%
7	Anthony Nimani	G	So	6'4"	22-0	17.3	5.4	1.6	1.9	1.0	65.5%	52.0%	1.1	84.6%	16.4%
23	DJ Nix	F	Sr	6'6"	27-11	12.3	3.5	1.7	1.1	0.7	53.8%	37.3%	1.9	56.3%	17.4%
4	Gioacchino Panzini	F	So	6'5"	26-0	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.6	0.5	77.6%	50.0%	0.9	57.1%	15.9%
14	Corbin Zentner	G	Sr	5'9"	24-1	11.6	3.3	0.9	0.8	0.3	57.8%	38.6%	2.4	66.7%	14.6%
0	DaMaryon Fishburn	G	Jr	6'5"	21-0	8.6	2.5	2.0	1.5	0.7	83.3%	58.3%	0.6	57.1%	14.2%
10	Mateen Rafiq	G	So	6'0"	18-0	9.3	4.3	1.3	1.5	0.3	66.4%	46.3%	2.3	71.4%	20.2%
2	Ian Imegwu	F	Jr	6'9"	15-0	5.7	4.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	69.2%	48.9%	3.0	50.0%	34.4%
3	Jax Abalos	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	6.4	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	53.6%	27.3%	1.8	80.0%	21.7%
55	AJ LaBeau	F	Jr	6'10"	10-0	4.1	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	19.3%
12	Ryan Burbach	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	8.2	2.6	1.6	0.2	0.4	31.6%	15.4%	2.6	100.0%	27.3%
11	Ty Iwanonkiw	F	So	6'9"	3-0	7.7	4.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	66.7%	44.4%	3.0	—	19.2%
13	AJ Rodriguez	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Blake Lecklitner	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Elijah Griffin	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colgate2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Jalen Cox	G	Jr	6'3"	31-31	34.2	17.9	5.2	5.3	2.3	54.5%	36.5%	1.7	85.0%	30.5%
22	Andrew Alekseyenko	F	Fr	6'8"	33-33	29.7	14.8	6.7	2.4	2.3	55.4%	38.3%	3.2	78.1%	30.2%
33	Sam Wright	F	Jr	6'9"	33-33	25.6	12.3	4.4	0.8	1.0	55.9%	31.2%	3.8	60.2%	27.7%
4	Josh Ahayere	G	So	6'3"	32-24	25.3	7.8	3.6	1.4	0.8	55.1%	36.9%	2.0	74.0%	17.5%
13	Kyle Carlesimo	G	Sr	6'2"	33-2	24.5	7.8	2.5	0.9	0.7	51.7%	36.0%	5.0	84.6%	19.9%
23	Cooper Wright	F	Jr	6'5"	30-0	12.4	1.7	1.7	0.7	0.4	61.5%	—	0.0	30.0%	8.8%
15	Ayomi Odetoyinbo	F	Fr	6'10"	33-0	10.9	2.1	2.6	0.3	0.4	57.4%	0.0%	0.0	54.5%	12.1%
1	Brady Cummins	G	Sr	6'6"	18-9	16.8	4.2	1.1	0.8	0.7	40.8%	34.3%	1.9	90.0%	18.4%
0	Ethan Brown	F	So	6'10"	17-0	7.6	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.3	31.6%	25.0%	0.5	82.4%	15.4%
9	Cameron Brennan	F	So	7'0"	13-0	4.7	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.5	31.3%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	23.5%
5	Charlie Pugh	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	66.7%	50.0%	0.5	—	15.6%
8	Jonathan Niv	G	Fr	6'5"	8-0	3.1	1.9	0.6	0.0	0.3	81.3%	60.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.5%
2	Blake Forrest	G	So	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Parker Jones	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
7	Stevie Clark	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cornell2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Cooper Noard	G	Sr	6'2"	28-28	27.5	18.2	3.3	2.0	1.6	61.6%	37.6%	7.6	90.3%	31.6%
8	Adam Hinton	G	Sr	6'4"	28-28	24.6	12.5	3.1	1.9	1.3	59.1%	41.5%	4.8	77.6%	26.1%
5	Jacob Beccles	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	23.4	7.7	2.5	3.1	1.3	52.9%	32.8%	2.2	67.3%	19.8%
22	Jake Fiegen	G	Sr	6'4"	24-17	26.1	17.1	5.1	2.1	1.2	64.9%	41.4%	5.5	77.2%	30.4%
21	Kaspar Sepp	F	Jr	6'7"	28-15	18.8	4.8	5.5	2.6	1.3	50.5%	23.8%	0.8	66.0%	17.2%
24	Josh Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	26-13	19.0	7.4	4.1	3.2	1.7	52.2%	33.9%	2.3	70.0%	24.9%
7	Anthony Nimani	G	So	6'4"	22-0	17.3	5.4	1.6	1.9	1.0	65.5%	52.0%	1.1	84.6%	16.4%
23	DJ Nix	F	Sr	6'6"	27-11	12.3	3.5	1.7	1.1	0.7	53.8%	37.3%	1.9	56.3%	17.4%
4	Gioacchino Panzini	F	So	6'5"	26-0	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.6	0.5	77.6%	50.0%	0.9	57.1%	15.9%
14	Corbin Zentner	G	Sr	5'9"	24-1	11.6	3.3	0.9	0.8	0.3	57.8%	38.6%	2.4	66.7%	14.6%
0	DaMaryon Fishburn	G	Jr	6'5"	21-0	8.6	2.5	2.0	1.5	0.7	83.3%	58.3%	0.6	57.1%	14.2%
10	Mateen Rafiq	G	So	6'0"	18-0	9.3	4.3	1.3	1.5	0.3	66.4%	46.3%	2.3	71.4%	20.2%
2	Ian Imegwu	F	Jr	6'9"	15-0	5.7	4.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	69.2%	48.9%	3.0	50.0%	34.4%
3	Jax Abalos	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	6.4	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	53.6%	27.3%	1.8	80.0%	21.7%
55	AJ LaBeau	F	Jr	6'10"	10-0	4.1	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	19.3%
12	Ryan Burbach	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	8.2	2.6	1.6	0.2	0.4	31.6%	15.4%	2.6	100.0%	27.3%
11	Ty Iwanonkiw	F	So	6'9"	3-0	7.7	4.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	66.7%	44.4%	3.0	—	19.2%
13	AJ Rodriguez	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Blake Lecklitner	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Elijah Griffin	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cornell

Against the spread

Season

11-15

Home

2-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-12

Home

4-5

Road

9-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.6

Over 3 straightOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	YaleAdjEM #57	N	L 76–88	+3.5	L−8.5	163.5	O164	125.2	144.9	60.7
Mar 7	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 111–90	−4.5	W+16.5	166.0	O201	142.5	115.5	77.9
Feb 28	BrownAdjEM #275	H	W 86–80	−9.5	L−3.5	157.5	O166	119.1	110.7	72.2
Feb 27	YaleAdjEM #57	H	W 72–69	+4.0	W+7.0	164.0	U141	112.1	107.4	64.3
Feb 21	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 54–73	−5.5	L−24.5	155.0	U127	89.9	121.5	60.1
Feb 14	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 76–82	−3.0	L−9.0	170.0	U158	99.7	107.6	76.2
Feb 13	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	W 89–65	−3.5	W+20.5	154.5	U154	140.6	102.7	63.3
Feb 7	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 88–67	−1.0	W+20.0	170.5	U155	133.9	101.9	65.7
Jan 31	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 81–91	−7.0	L−17.0	174.5	U172	112.3	126.1	72.1
Jan 30	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 87–64	−7.0	W+16.0	159.5	U151	141.5	104.1	61.5

Colgate

Against the spread

Season

12-19

Home

4-9

Road

7-9

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-14

Home

9-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.8

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 69–76	−2.0	L−9.0	146.0	U145	100.7	110.9	68.5
Mar 5	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 90–77	−5.5	W+7.5	154.0	O167	139.5	119.4	64.5
Feb 28	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–85	+6.5	L−9.5	142.0	O154	103.7	127.8	66.5
Feb 25	LafayetteAdjEM #319	H	L 69–70	−8.5	L−9.5	147.5	U139	110.6	112.2	62.4
Feb 21	Loyola MDAdjEM #313	H	W 101–98 OT	−8.5	L−5.5	149.5	O199	115.7	112.3	87.3
Feb 16	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 58–85	−2.0	L−29.0	146.0	U143	101.3	148.4	57.3
Feb 14	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 80–84 OT	+2.0	L−2.0	139.0	O164	111.8	117.4	71.6
Feb 11	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 74–70	−8.0	L−4.0	143.0	O144	108.1	102.3	68.5
Feb 7	BucknellAdjEM #334	A	W 78–59	−5.0	W+14.0	141.5	U137	106.3	80.4	73.4
Feb 4	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 69–55	−10.0	W+4.0	149.5	U124	107.3	85.6	64.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

CornellColgate

Efficiency

116.2

108.6

114.3

111.2

70.9

68.0

—

Shooting

58.5%

53.3%

59.7%

53.2%

38.3%

35.6%

74.1%

74.7%

30.2%

29.7%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

14.6%

15.1%

15.3%

30.2%

26.6%

30.6%

29.3%

9.1%

8.4%

9.6%

6.3%

Style

51.6%

35.0%

38.9%

44.4%

14.4%

12.6%

66.7%

51.4%

41.9%

29.0%

Roster

3.37

2.54

6'3.9"

6'5.6"

—

85.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cornell

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colgate

Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%

Lost

Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan

Added

Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Nov 20	2025-26	Colgate 94 – 95 Cornell

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.