CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceArena-Auditorium, Laramie, WY
San Diego
Efficiency #269
2025-26: 12-21 · 6-14 conf
@
Wyoming
Efficiency #98
2025-26: 18-15 · 9-12 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
70.1
win 18%
Projected
80.6
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: WYO −10.4 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Wyoming 67.7, San Diego 68.8 → 68.2 possessions
−0.3
Wyoming offense vs San Diego defense
+4.7
San Diego offense vs Wyoming defense
−1.9
Projected total
150.7
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Wyoming offense vs San Diego defense
+4.7
San Diego offense vs Wyoming defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Wyoming by 10.4
10.4
San Diego side ◂▸ Wyoming side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +10.5 against +10.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wyoming.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, San Diego is the faster team (68.8, #159 of 365) and Wyoming the slower (67.6, #221). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.7
model
Projected team totals
70.1 / 80.6
San Diego / Wyoming
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#136
San Diego
67.7#237
Wyoming

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageWyoming
Where Wyoming scores: shooting
Wyoming shoots an effective 51.8% (#154); San Diego allows 54.7% (#320). Expect about 53.3%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
GlassWyoming
Wyoming owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.0% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Wyoming's offense.
AdvantageSan Diego
Where San Diego struggles: the offensive glass
San Diego rebounds 28.1% of its own misses (#262); Wyoming lets opponents grab 28.0% of their own misses (#66). Expect about 27.6%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashSan Diego
Style clash: 3-point volume
San Diego takes 43.7% of its shots from three; Wyoming runs teams off the line (35.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashSan Diego
Style clash: ball movement
San Diego assists on 59.1% of its made baskets; Wyoming breaks up passing offenses (assists on 45.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
San Diego has the ball
OffenseWyoming allowsvs D1 avg
51.2% #185
52.0% #211
+0.5 pt/100
17.5% #237
16.8% #171
-0.5 pt/100
28.1% #262
28.0% #66
-1.7 pt/100
25.8% #358
47.9% #360
+0.4 pt/100
74.7% #95
—
+0.2 pt/100
San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100
Wyoming has the ball
OffenseSan Diego allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #154
54.7% #320
+2.9 pt/100
16.3% #155
18.9% #55
-1.3 pt/100
34.1% #66
34.5% #328
+2.8 pt/100
35.4% #166
38.8% #281
+0.3 pt/100
74.3% #115
—
+0.2 pt/100
Wyoming net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
San Diegooffense vsWyomingdefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
Wyoming allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17461.7%#29258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.9%#27044.2%#27339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.6%#16836.1%#11138.0%
Three34.6%#14132.8%#10833.7%
Wyomingoffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Wyoming shoots
San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.9%#24263.2%#32858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.4%#7250.0%#35439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)40.3%#10247.3%#36138.0%
Three33.0%#23432.7%#10033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
San Diego
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#334 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#262
Def reb %
65.5%
#328
Turnover %
17.5%
#237
Forced TO %
18.9%
#55
FT rate
25.8%
#358
FT allowed
38.8%
#281
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Wyoming
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#213 of 365
Off reb %
34.1%
#66
Def reb %
72.0%
#66
Turnover %
16.3%
#155
Forced TO %
16.8%
#171
FT rate
35.4%
#166
FT allowed
47.9%
#360
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−3.3

Wyoming has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#213 of 365) to San Diego’s −4.3 (#334).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

San Diego2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Toneari LaneGSr6'5"33-1726.811.32.00.70.758.2%44.0%5.885.0%21.8%
2Adrian McIntyreGSr6'3"32-1724.89.83.62.91.557.1%32.1%2.473.5%23.2%
4Juanse GorositoGSr6'0"32-1724.310.52.72.21.351.9%38.2%5.683.3%26.2%
34Vuk BoskovicFFr6'7"33-1820.36.13.22.01.655.7%35.8%3.360.5%20.0%
5Ty-Laur JohnsonGJr6'0"23-2128.014.62.74.32.947.7%30.9%3.582.6%33.8%
7Assane DiopFJr6'9"29-1918.95.75.21.31.356.4%41.9%1.559.3%19.4%
14Dominique FordGSr6'5"31-1717.35.62.20.80.744.6%22.9%1.576.4%21.1%
30Tim Moore Jr.FSr6'6"31-1014.96.62.40.30.549.7%20.0%1.879.7%25.0%
12Gavin RippFFr6'7"26-717.04.12.51.51.048.3%23.5%0.780.0%17.0%
21Alejandro AvilesFFr6'10"24-810.82.61.70.80.539.0%0.0%0.176.2%18.0%
3D'Arrae GoodwinFFr6'6"14-614.64.72.50.80.853.6%33.3%2.666.7%20.1%
22Emmanuel CallasGJr6'5"16-49.10.81.50.40.441.7%—0.060.0%8.3%
24Brandon BenjaminGFr6'6"19-07.02.71.10.80.653.6%25.0%0.270.0%25.7%
23Piotr WinkowskiCJr6'10"15-46.52.11.90.30.656.5%—0.045.5%21.4%
10Neel BeniwalGJr6'5"9-03.60.80.30.10.121.4%16.7%0.780.0%17.0%
9Josh HechtGJr6'2"8-02.81.30.10.10.650.0%33.3%0.8—35.5%
15Caleb VersherGFr6'3"3-06.71.71.71.01.341.7%50.0%0.7—27.3%
53Nick Del BosqueGSo6'0"5-01.40.00.00.00.20.0%—0.0—23.0%
6Boden GrantGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
0Kjay Bradley Jr.GSr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
San DiegoWyoming
Efficiency
106.6
111.8
112.0
107.6
68.8
67.7
—
—
Shooting
51.2%
51.8%
50.8%
53.6%
34.6%
33.0%
74.7%
74.3%
25.8%
35.4%
Ball control & glass
17.5%
16.3%
18.9%
16.8%
28.1%
34.1%
34.5%
28.0%
10.0%
8.3%
10.1%
10.9%
Style
43.7%
43.0%
39.6%
43.0%
15.1%
9.6%
59.1%
53.8%
39.6%
37.3%
Roster
3.00
2.57
6'4.7"
6'5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wyoming
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wyoming's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.