CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameCameron Hall, Lexington, VA

ETSU

Efficiency #110

2025-26: 23-11 · 15-6 conf

VMI

Efficiency #361

2025-26: 6-26 · 1-18 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

78.5

win 79%

Projected

69.2

win 21%

No line posted yet.

Model: ETSU −9.3 · total 147.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VMI 67.9, ETSU 67.4 → 67.0 possessions

−2.8

VMI offense vs ETSU defense

−5.5

ETSU offense vs VMI defense

+7.7

Projected total

147.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VMI offense vs ETSU defense

−5.5

ETSU offense vs VMI defense

−7.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

ETSU by 9.3

9.3

ETSU side ◂▸ VMI side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VMI.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, VMI is the faster team (67.6, #219 of 365) and ETSU the slower (66.5, #268). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.6

model

Projected team totals

78.5 / 69.2

ETSU / VMI

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#257

ETSU

67.9#215

VMI

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageETSU

Where ETSU scores: shooting

ETSU shoots an effective 55.3% (#33); VMI allows 57.0% (#357). Expect about 56.5%, 5.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVMI

Style match: 3-point volume

VMI takes 53.6% of its shots from three; ETSU lets opponents take 47.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 56.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageVMI

Where VMI struggles: shooting

VMI shoots an effective 47.6% (#325); ETSU allows 51.0% (#161). Expect about 49.0%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

GlassVMI

VMI gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.9% is worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions against VMI's offense.

TurnoversETSU

ETSU protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for ETSU's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VMI's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect ETSU at about 42.7% of its shots from three, VMI about 56.0%.

ETSU has the ball

OffenseVMI allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #33

57.0% #357

+7.4 pt/100

15.2% #78

15.7% #241

+2.0 pt/100

28.3% #252

37.2% #360

+1.1 pt/100

35.0% #180

34.6% #168

-0.0 pt/100

74.7% #93

—

+0.2 pt/100

ETSU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.7 pts/100

VMI has the ball

OffenseETSU allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #325

51.0% #161

-3.3 pt/100

15.3% #88

18.5% #74

-0.3 pt/100

25.6% #330

27.9% #64

-2.8 pt/100

30.6% #293

36.4% #225

-0.2 pt/100

72.2% #201

—

-0.0 pt/100

VMI net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

ETSUoffense vsVMIdefense

Share of shots by zone

ETSU shoots

42.8

4.8

15.4

36.9

VMI allows

34.3

4.7

14.4

46.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.9%#52	66.0%#359	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.1%#21	49.3%#351	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.1%#77	44.7%#347	38.0%
Three	34.7%#132	36.5%#327	33.7%

VMIoffense vsETSUdefense

Share of shots by zone

VMI shoots

32.1

4.2

9.7

53.9

ETSU allows

36.1

3.7

12.5

47.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#327	59.6%#210	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	19.7%#365	44.8%#293	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#246	33.8%#48	38.0%
Three	31.5%#306	32.9%#110	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

ETSU

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365

Off reb %

28.3%

#252

Def reb %

72.1%

#64

Turnover %

15.2%

#78

Forced TO %

18.5%

#74

FT rate

35.0%

#180

FT allowed

36.4%

#225

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

VMI

−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#330

Def reb %

62.8%

#360

Turnover %

15.3%

#88

Forced TO %

15.7%

#241

FT rate

30.6%

#293

FT allowed

34.6%

#168

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.2

ETSU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#86 of 365) to VMI’s −4.4 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

ETSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Brian Taylor II	G	Sr	6'4"	34-34	33.2	14.6	3.7	2.9	1.5	53.2%	34.9%	4.5	76.4%	26.3%
13	Blake Barkley	F	So	6'8"	32-32	28.6	14.6	5.8	1.2	1.6	62.2%	38.3%	1.5	84.0%	26.2%
15	Cam Morris III	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	25.6	13.2	5.2	1.5	1.4	59.1%	32.3%	0.9	66.9%	28.4%
4	Jaylen Smith	G	Jr	5'11"	34-3	24.7	9.1	2.6	2.9	1.7	49.4%	34.4%	4.4	80.0%	25.3%
2	Maki Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	34-1	22.5	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.4	57.9%	38.5%	4.0	64.3%	13.9%
5	Allen Strothers	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	21.7	4.1	2.1	2.9	1.3	51.8%	32.1%	0.8	70.3%	13.9%
35	Jordan McCullum	F	So	6'8"	34-32	21.6	8.3	3.7	0.9	1.1	55.5%	20.5%	1.3	69.8%	22.8%
24	Isaiah Sutherland	F	Fr	6'7"	24-0	11.0	3.5	1.8	0.2	0.2	52.7%	33.9%	2.3	55.6%	19.2%
55	Milton Matthews III	G	Sr	6'3"	23-0	9.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	57.9%	38.7%	2.7	75.0%	21.1%
21	Gabe Sisk	G	Jr	6'5"	18-0	9.9	3.4	2.3	0.7	0.6	51.2%	10.0%	0.6	90.0%	20.3%
14	Brayden Crump	F	So	6'8"	11-1	15.8	6.4	3.1	0.5	0.5	54.3%	31.3%	1.5	70.0%	22.1%
30	Henry Sisemore	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.0	1.1	1.6	0.3	0.1	44.4%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
25	Joseph Carter	G	Fr	6'1"	6-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.9%
23	Frederico Whitaker Jr.	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Maddox Huff	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VMI2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
44	TJ Johnson	F	Jr	6'7"	31-31	35.6	18.3	7.2	1.4	1.6	52.7%	35.5%	10.0	81.9%	29.0%
4	Linus Holmstrom	G	So	6'3"	31-29	27.2	11.4	2.5	1.7	1.4	58.0%	39.4%	6.4	76.2%	23.3%
2	Mario Tatum Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	31-8	25.9	8.5	2.0	1.4	0.6	45.3%	27.3%	3.2	64.6%	21.1%
0	Cal Liston	F	So	6'5"	32-24	23.0	5.3	3.2	1.0	0.7	50.3%	33.3%	3.7	72.0%	14.8%
5	AJ Clark	G	Jr	6'4"	22-22	26.5	6.6	6.0	1.6	1.1	50.4%	37.0%	1.2	66.7%	16.2%
6	Kaden Stuckey	F	So	6'8"	28-7	18.7	4.4	4.9	0.5	1.1	35.3%	0.0%	0.5	62.9%	20.2%
14	Walker Andrews	G	So	6'1"	29-3	13.4	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	49.0%	33.3%	3.4	84.4%	24.9%
7	Jaylen Pazon	G	So	6'5"	20-1	13.4	6.7	2.2	0.7	1.1	44.9%	17.6%	1.7	71.1%	33.3%
9	Alexander Daushvili	F	Fr	6'8"	5-3	17.2	6.8	4.2	1.0	0.6	41.2%	0.0%	1.4	83.3%	21.0%
3	Mason Hagedorn	F	So	6'9"	7-1	9.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.1	30.4%	36.4%	1.6	—	20.6%
10	Branford Edmonds III	G	So	6'2"	5-0	5.6	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.2	65.0%	37.5%	1.6	—	19.9%
42	Mason Lawson	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
1	Rickey Bradley Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Robert Peters	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

ETSU2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Brian Taylor II	G	Sr	6'4"	34-34	33.2	14.6	3.7	2.9	1.5	53.2%	34.9%	4.5	76.4%	26.3%
13	Blake Barkley	F	So	6'8"	32-32	28.6	14.6	5.8	1.2	1.6	62.2%	38.3%	1.5	84.0%	26.2%
15	Cam Morris III	F	Sr	6'8"	33-33	25.6	13.2	5.2	1.5	1.4	59.1%	32.3%	0.9	66.9%	28.4%
4	Jaylen Smith	G	Jr	5'11"	34-3	24.7	9.1	2.6	2.9	1.7	49.4%	34.4%	4.4	80.0%	25.3%
2	Maki Johnson	G	Jr	6'4"	34-1	22.5	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.4	57.9%	38.5%	4.0	64.3%	13.9%
5	Allen Strothers	G	Sr	6'1"	34-34	21.7	4.1	2.1	2.9	1.3	51.8%	32.1%	0.8	70.3%	13.9%
35	Jordan McCullum	F	So	6'8"	34-32	21.6	8.3	3.7	0.9	1.1	55.5%	20.5%	1.3	69.8%	22.8%
24	Isaiah Sutherland	F	Fr	6'7"	24-0	11.0	3.5	1.8	0.2	0.2	52.7%	33.9%	2.3	55.6%	19.2%
55	Milton Matthews III	G	Sr	6'3"	23-0	9.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	57.9%	38.7%	2.7	75.0%	21.1%
21	Gabe Sisk	G	Jr	6'5"	18-0	9.9	3.4	2.3	0.7	0.6	51.2%	10.0%	0.6	90.0%	20.3%
14	Brayden Crump	F	So	6'8"	11-1	15.8	6.4	3.1	0.5	0.5	54.3%	31.3%	1.5	70.0%	22.1%
30	Henry Sisemore	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.0	1.1	1.6	0.3	0.1	44.4%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.3%
25	Joseph Carter	G	Fr	6'1"	6-0	2.3	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.9%
23	Frederico Whitaker Jr.	G	Fr	5'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Maddox Huff	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

ETSU

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

8-7

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 5 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

17-14-1

Home

7-7-1

Road

9-5

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.6

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	FurmanAdjEM #163	N	L 61–76	−1.0	L−16.0	138.0	U137	98.6	122.9	61.8
Mar 8	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	N	W 69–67	−3.0	L−1.0	146.0	U136	105.5	102.4	65.4
Mar 7	The CitadelAdjEM #348	N	W 83–76	−15.0	L−8.0	139.0	O159	127.7	116.9	65.0
Feb 28	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 76–82	+1.5	L−4.5	151.0	O158	119.0	128.4	63.9
Feb 25	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 69–72	−7.0	L−10.0	150.0	U141	103.8	108.3	66.5
Feb 21	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	W 87–75	−6.0	W+6.0	149.0	O162	130.1	112.1	66.9
Feb 18	FurmanAdjEM #163	A	W 78–69	+1.5	W+10.5	141.0	O147	114.4	101.2	68.2
Feb 14	SamfordAdjEM #202	H	L 72–82 OT	−6.0	L−16.0	145.5	O154	95.7	109.0	75.2
Feb 11	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	H	W 73–61	−10.0	W+2.0	145.0	U134	110.3	92.2	66.2
Feb 7	VMIAdjEM #361	A	W 87–70	−14.5	W+2.5	144.0	O157	123.2	99.1	70.6

VMI

Against the spread

Season

8-19-2

Home

2-9

Road

6-8-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-16

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	N	L 70–84	+6.5	L−7.5	156.0	U154	103.8	124.6	67.4
Feb 28	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	L 79–86	+11.5	W+4.5	155.0	O165	124.6	135.7	63.4
Feb 26	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 61–80	+17.0	L−2.0	156.0	U141	93.0	122.0	65.6
Feb 21	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	H	L 62–81	+9.0	L−10.0	155.0	U143	98.2	128.3	63.2
Feb 18	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 76–82	+13.5	W+7.5	158.5	U158	110.3	119.0	68.9
Feb 14	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	L 72–90	+12.0	L−6.0	146.5	O162	101.4	126.8	71.0
Feb 11	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 71–92	+8.5	L−12.5	151.0	O163	102.7	133.0	69.2
Feb 7	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 70–87	+14.5	L−2.5	144.0	O157	99.1	123.2	70.6
Feb 4	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 67–81	+9.0	L−5.0	150.0	U148	98.9	119.6	67.7
Jan 31	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 81–95	+18.0	W+4.0	153.5	O176	111.4	130.7	72.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ETSUVMI

Efficiency

110.1

101.8

107.0

118.2

67.4

67.9

—

Shooting

55.3%

47.6%

57.2%

47.9%

34.7%

31.5%

74.7%

72.2%

35.0%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

15.3%

18.5%

15.7%

28.3%

25.6%

27.9%

37.2%

8.6%

7.5%

10.5%

Style

37.8%

53.6%

46.9%

32.8%

12.2%

11.0%

50.8%

50.7%

34.9%

28.4%

Roster

3.08

2.15

6'4.7"

6'4.8"

—

84.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

ETSU

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted ETSU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

VMI

Returning minutes: 84.9%Returning production: 84.7%

Lost

Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena

Added

Robert Peters no D1 minutes last season
Rickey Bradley Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Feb 7	2025-26	ETSU 87 – 70 VMI
Wed, Jan 7	2025-26	VMI 67 – 81 ETSU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.