CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCam Henderson Center, Huntington, WV
Bethune
Efficiency #260
2025-26: 17-15 · 14-5 conf
@
Marshall
Efficiency #175
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
74.0
win 25%
Projected
81.7
win 75%
No line posted yet.
Model: MRSH −7.7 · total 155.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Marshall 69.7, Bethune 69.5 → 70.8 possessions
+5.4
Marshall offense vs Bethune defense
+2.8
Bethune offense vs Marshall defense
−0.8
Projected total
155.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Marshall offense vs Bethune defense
+2.8
Bethune offense vs Marshall defense
+0.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
Marshall by 7.7
7.7
Bethune side ◂▸ Marshall side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 155.6 against a projected 155.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marshall.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bethune is the faster team (70.9, #57 of 365) and Marshall the slower (70.7, #66). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
155.7
model
Projected team totals
74.0 / 81.7
Bethune / Marshall
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#85
Bethune
69.7#71
Marshall

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Marshall averages 70.7 possessions per 40, Bethune 70.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Marshall) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bethune at about 31.8% of its shots from three, Marshall about 39.2%.
AdvantageMarshall
Where Marshall scores: shooting
Marshall shoots an effective 54.8% (#42); Bethune allows 49.7% (#88). Expect about 52.5%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashBethune
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Bethune (#17 in shot-blocking exposure) against Marshall (#23 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.9%. Historically Marshall's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashMarshall
Style clash: 3-point volume
Marshall takes 44.3% of its shots from three; Bethune runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashMarshall
Style clash: paint scoring
Marshall gets only 37.7% of its points in the paint; Bethune gives up 46.7% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Bethune has the ball
OffenseMarshall allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #195
50.3% #118
-1.0 pt/100
19.2% #328
16.3% #201
-1.3 pt/100
30.1% #194
33.8% #316
+0.9 pt/100
40.9% #48
41.1% #313
+0.8 pt/100
69.7% #279
—
-0.2 pt/100
Bethune net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100
Marshall has the ball
OffenseBethune allowsvs D1 avg
54.8% #42
49.7% #88
+1.8 pt/100
16.6% #171
15.8% #229
+0.9 pt/100
31.9% #127
31.7% #242
+1.0 pt/100
29.2% #328
38.6% #276
-0.1 pt/100
73.0% #168
—
+0.1 pt/100
Marshall net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Bethuneoffense vsMarshalldefense
Share of shots by zone
Bethune shoots
Marshall allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.1%#9460.2%#24158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.3%#33735.8%#8739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)30.0%#35334.0%#5038.0%
Three33.0%#23033.6%#16233.7%
Marshalloffense vsBethunedefense
Share of shots by zone
Marshall shoots
Bethune allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim66.8%#854.6%#5258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.8%#24835.9%#8939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.9%#22939.8%#23338.0%
Three36.8%#3432.9%#11233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Bethune
−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#273 of 365
Off reb %
30.1%
#194
Def reb %
68.3%
#242
Turnover %
19.2%
#328
Forced TO %
15.8%
#229
FT rate
40.9%
#48
FT allowed
38.6%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.9
Marshall
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#322 of 365
Off reb %
31.9%
#127
Def reb %
66.2%
#316
Turnover %
16.6%
#171
Forced TO %
16.3%
#201
FT rate
29.2%
#328
FT allowed
41.1%
#313
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−1.5

Bethune has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.0 (#273 of 365) to Marshall’s −3.7 (#322).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bethune2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jakobi HeadyGSr6'6"31-3135.718.25.01.81.858.0%41.5%3.080.4%25.2%
1Arterio MorrisGJr6'4"30-827.711.53.82.93.044.0%24.7%2.456.6%31.4%
5Quentin HeadyFJr6'6"32-2825.610.33.71.21.350.8%28.6%1.173.4%23.2%
23Daniel RouzanFSr6'8"32-3223.611.84.91.31.552.2%20.0%0.868.4%29.2%
3Seneca WilloughbyGSr6'3"29-2525.54.13.42.71.444.1%34.3%2.473.2%12.4%
4Ariel BlandFSr6'7"32-020.04.85.81.51.363.2%0.0%0.160.6%14.2%
25Tyler AndrewsGSr6'6"25-2120.96.92.60.91.260.9%42.0%3.567.7%18.2%
11Jordan JohnsonGJr6'4"32-716.04.91.30.50.546.2%29.7%3.260.9%20.1%
2Rickey Mitchell Jr.GJr6'4"14-416.74.11.81.41.139.4%30.0%2.966.7%20.4%
13Doctor BradleyGSr6'8"8-422.111.97.52.82.055.2%28.6%0.947.7%33.0%
33David OnaninaCJr6'8"9-07.71.62.20.30.650.0%—0.00.0%17.3%
12Dailon MinorGFr6'1"9-04.91.30.30.41.233.3%40.0%0.666.7%30.6%
22William GonzalezGFr6'6"4-03.02.30.00.30.3150.0%100.0%0.8—17.4%
30Simeon WomackGSr6'2"3-02.01.70.70.00.350.0%0.0%0.360.0%45.7%
24Trayvon BarbaryGSr6'4"2-02.50.00.00.00.0——0.0—0.0%
15Reggie Ward Jr.FSr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
BethuneMarshall
Efficiency
104.6
111.3
109.7
111.2
69.5
69.7
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
54.8%
51.6%
54.6%
33.0%
36.8%
69.7%
73.0%
40.9%
29.2%
Ball control & glass
19.2%
16.6%
15.8%
16.3%
30.1%
31.9%
31.7%
33.8%
11.6%
10.1%
7.1%
8.1%
Style
29.7%
44.3%
49.1%
37.7%
19.9%
15.3%
50.4%
56.5%
32.9%
32.6%
Roster
3.59
3.30
6'5.5"
6'4.6"
—
85.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Bethune
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Bethune's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marshall
Returning minutes: 85.4%Returning production: 80.3%
Lost
  • Wyatt Fricks 29.1 mpg, 15.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kaiden White no D1 minutes last season
  • Will Moore no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.