CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameJames T. Morris Arena, Indianapolis, IN
Oakland
Efficiency #172
2025-26: 16-16 · 12-9 conf
@
IU Indy
Efficiency #315
2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · 2:00 PM ET
86.2
win 58%
Projected
83.9
win 42%
No line posted yet.
Model: OAK −2.3 · total 170.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: IU Indy 72.5, Oakland 70.0 → 74.2 possessions
+12.8
IU Indy offense vs Oakland defense
+1.3
Oakland offense vs IU Indy defense
+7.8
Projected total
170.1
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
IU Indy offense vs Oakland defense
+1.3
Oakland offense vs IU Indy defense
−7.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.3
Oakland by 2.3
2.3
Oakland side ◂▸ IU Indy side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −2.2 against −2.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help IU Indy.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 74.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and Oakland the slower (71.1, #46). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
74.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
170.1
model
Projected team totals
86.2 / 83.9
Oakland / IU Indy
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#46
Oakland
72.5#2
IU Indy
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
IU Indy averages 74.9 possessions per 40, Oakland 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 75 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageOakland
Where Oakland scores: shooting
Oakland shoots an effective 52.7% (#114); IU Indy allows 58.2% (#362). Expect about 55.7%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.2 points per 100 possessions.
ClashIU Indy
Style match: ball movement
IU Indy assists on 61.9% of its made baskets; Oakland allows assists on 66.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 67.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageIU Indy
Where IU Indy scores: shooting
IU Indy shoots an effective 52.2% (#136); Oakland allows 54.7% (#322). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
ClashOakland
Style match: 3-point volume
Oakland rarely shoots threes (34.0% of its shots); IU Indy runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.7% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Oakland at about 32.7% of its shots from three, IU Indy about 43.0%.
Oakland has the ball
OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #114
58.2% #362
+6.2 pt/100
14.7% #49
19.2% #41
-0.4 pt/100
31.3% #152
35.6% #348
+1.9 pt/100
38.1% #100
46.6% #356
+1.0 pt/100
75.1% #79
—
+0.2 pt/100
Oakland net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.0 pts/100
IU Indy has the ball
OffenseOakland allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #136
54.7% #322
+3.3 pt/100
15.9% #127
15.1% #284
+2.0 pt/100
28.7% #243
34.4% #324
+0.4 pt/100
21.7% #365
24.6% #4
-1.6 pt/100
72.1% #204
—
-0.0 pt/100
IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersOaklandoffense vsIU Indydefense
Share of shots by zone
Oakland shoots
45.2
8.6
12.5
33.7
IU Indy allows
48.7
4.0
11.4
35.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.1%#192 | 64.3%#343 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.6%#56 | 41.8%#228 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.4%#135 | 38.4%#173 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#131 | 38.5%#361 | 33.7% |
IU Indyoffense vsOaklanddefense
Share of shots by zone
IU Indy shoots
34.6
8.1
15.3
42.0
Oakland allows
36.5
6.6
14.8
42.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.5%#62 | 61.3%#277 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.3%#11 | 45.0%#299 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.0%#223 | 48.9%#365 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.4%#258 | 34.3%#206 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersOakland
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#57 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#152
Def reb %
65.6%
#324
Turnover %
14.7%
#49
Forced TO %
15.1%
#284
FT rate
38.1%
#100
FT allowed
24.6%
#4
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding−1.2
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.7
IU Indy
−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#243
Def reb %
64.4%
#348
Turnover %
15.9%
#127
Forced TO %
19.2%
#41
FT rate
21.7%
#365
FT allowed
46.6%
#356
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−3.4
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Oakland has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#57 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
IU Indy2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Finley Woodward | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-32 | 30.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 51.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 68.6% | 18.0% | |
| 12 | Kyler D'Augustino | G | Jr | 6'1" | 30-30 | 32.3 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 39.4% | 3.5 | 79.3% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Maguire Mitchell | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-31 | 26.3 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 54.5% | 34.9% | 7.4 | 78.4% | 22.9% | |
| 4 | Micah Davis | G | So | 6'2" | 32-6 | 25.4 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 49.6% | 31.3% | 5.2 | 70.0% | 22.9% | |
| 0 | Jaxon Edwards | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-14 | 23.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 55.1% | 21.3% | 1.6 | 73.6% | 27.3% | |
| 20 | Kameron Tinsley | F | So | 6'6" | 29-5 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 4.7 | 83.9% | 23.1% | |
| 23 | Aiden Miller | F | So | 6'8" | 29-9 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 31.6% | 3.4 | 64.5% | 20.5% | |
| 15 | Matt Compas | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-5 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 20.6% | 1.1 | 68.4% | 28.5% | |
| 1 | Reece Hagy | F | Fr | 6'8" | 31-23 | 11.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 46.9% | 21.2% | 1.1 | 56.5% | 12.8% | |
| 5 | JP Dragas | G | So | 6'1" | 15-0 | 16.3 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 4.4 | 71.4% | 20.2% | |
| 24 | Gabe Stewart | F | Fr | 6'9" | 12-5 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 28.1% | 25.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Lav Cvetkovic | F | Sr | 6'7" | 12-0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 57.7% | 37.5% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 17.6% | |
| 22 | Ajay Holubar | G | Sr | 6'3" | 9-0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 18.9% | |
| 2 | Corey Boston | G | Sr | 5'10" | 6-0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 32.6% | |
| 11 | Garrett Sever | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 11.9% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Oakland2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Brody Robinson | G | Sr | 5'11" | 32-32 | 35.8 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 52.2% | 36.8% | 6.4 | 79.8% | 26.6% | |
| 12 | Tuburu Naivalurua | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.4% | 34.0% | 1.7 | 71.5% | 23.7% | |
| 2 | Ziare Wells | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-26 | 26.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 53.5% | 37.7% | 1.9 | 70.9% | 21.2% | |
| 32 | Isaac Garrett | F | Jr | 6'8" | 28-28 | 28.9 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 54.8% | 25.0% | 0.9 | 80.4% | 25.9% | |
| 10 | Brett White II | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-6 | 24.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 55.5% | 36.5% | 6.3 | 71.4% | 19.5% | |
| 6 | Michael Houge | F | Sr | 6'7" | 27-26 | 26.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 53.9% | 22.2% | 0.7 | 72.2% | 26.7% | |
| 21 | Khoi Thurmon | G | Jr | 6'1" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 35.8% | 20.0% | 0.5 | 64.3% | 19.0% | |
| 13 | Warren Marshall IV | G | Fr | 6'6" | 29-0 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.2% | 23.3% | 1.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 0 | Nassim Mashhour | G | So | 6'6" | 10-10 | 27.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 53.9% | 37.7% | 5.3 | 84.6% | 18.0% | |
| 5 | MJ Yeager | G | Fr | 5'10" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.9 | — | 23.5% | |
| 3 | Donny Yeager | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Hamoudy Mashhour | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 4 | William Kassi | G | Jr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Oakland
Against the spread
Season
17-14
Home
5-7
Road
10-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −5.3
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
19-12
Home
9-3
Road
9-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −3.2
Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | N Kentucky | H | L 84–85 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 162.5 | O169 | 115.1 | 116.5 | 73.0 |
| Feb 28 | Detroit Mercy | H | L 89–95 | −8.0 | L−14.0 | 161.5 | O184 | 123.4 | 131.7 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | IU Indy | A | W 86–74 | −5.5 | W+6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 118.5 | 101.9 | 72.6 |
| Feb 22 | Milwaukee | H | W 81–70 | −6.5 | W+4.5 | 160.0 | U151 | 123.9 | 107.1 | 65.4 |
| Feb 20 | Green Bay | H | L 68–73 | −6.5 | L−11.5 | 153.5 | U141 | 107.8 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 15 | Robert Morris | A | L 69–93 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 156.0 | O162 | 104.4 | 140.7 | 66.1 |
| Feb 12 | Youngstown St | H | L 82–86 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 156.0 | O168 | 117.4 | 123.1 | 69.8 |
| Feb 4 | Cleveland St | A | L 78–91 | −8.0 | L−21.0 | 169.5 | U169 | 109.5 | 127.7 | 71.3 |
| Feb 1 | N Kentucky | H | W 76–65 | −3.0 | W+8.0 | 167.5 | U141 | 99.6 | 85.2 | 76.3 |
| Jan 28 | Purdue FW | A | W 74–65 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 162.5 | U139 | 106.6 | 93.6 | 69.4 |
IU Indy
Against the spread
Season
12-17-1
Home
5-7
Road
7-9-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −1.6
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
13-16-1
Home
4-8
Road
9-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.4
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2 | Cleveland St | A | L 93–101 | +1.0 | L−7.0 | 169.5 | O194 | 112.1 | 121.7 | 83.0 |
| Feb 28 | Purdue FW | H | L 81–87 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 116.4 | 125.0 | 69.6 |
| Feb 25 | Oakland | H | L 74–86 | +5.5 | L−6.5 | 167.5 | U160 | 101.9 | 118.5 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Wright St | A | L 73–85 | +12.0 | P0.0 | 160.5 | U158 | 102.5 | 119.3 | 71.2 |
| Feb 15 | Purdue FW | A | L 78–83 | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 158.5 | O161 | 104.1 | 110.7 | 75.0 |
| Feb 12 | N Kentucky | H | L 81–84 | +6.0 | W+3.0 | 164.5 | O165 | 114.6 | 118.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 10 | Milwaukee | H | L 88–92 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 158.0 | O180 | 113.6 | 118.7 | 77.5 |
| Feb 7 | Cleveland St | H | W 82–74 | −2.5 | W+5.5 | 168.5 | U156 | 109.3 | 98.7 | 75.0 |
| Jan 30 | Youngstown St | A | L 76–85 | +10.5 | W+1.5 | 154.0 | O161 | 103.7 | 116.0 | 73.3 |
| Jan 28 | Robert Morris | A | L 58–74 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 159.5 | U132 | 97.3 | 124.2 | 59.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOaklandIU Indy
Efficiency
112.6
106.3
112.3
114.9
70.0
72.5
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
52.2%
53.0%
54.8%
34.7%
32.4%
75.1%
72.1%
38.1%
21.7%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
15.9%
15.1%
19.2%
31.3%
28.7%
34.4%
35.6%
7.6%
10.1%
11.7%
7.9%
Style
34.0%
42.1%
49.0%
48.0%
18.8%
15.6%
54.9%
61.9%
23.7%
38.0%
Roster
3.55
2.64
6'5.1"
6'4.6"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOakland
Returning minutes: 99.3%Returning production: 99.6%
ESPN hasn't posted Oakland's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 99% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
IU Indy
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Feb 25 | 2025-26 | Oakland 86 – 74 IU Indy |
| Wed, Jan 21 | 2025-26 | IU Indy 103 – 85 Oakland |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.