CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameResch Center, Ashwaubenon, WI

Wright St

Efficiency #119

2025-26: 23-12 · 18-5 conf

Green Bay

Efficiency #222

2025-26: 18-15 · 13-9 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

73.6

win 48%

Projected

74.1

win 52%

No line posted yet.

Model: GB −0.5 · total 147.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Green Bay 65.4, Wright St 68.1 → 65.2 possessions

−6.8

Green Bay offense vs Wright St defense

+1.5

Wright St offense vs Green Bay defense

+4.7

Projected total

147.6

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Green Bay offense vs Wright St defense

+1.5

Wright St offense vs Green Bay defense

−4.7

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Green Bay by 0.5

0.5

Wright St side ◂▸ Green Bay side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.6 against +0.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Green Bay.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wright St is the faster team (68.9, #156 of 365) and Green Bay the slower (64.7, #336). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.6

model

Projected team totals

73.6 / 74.1

Wright St / Green Bay

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#205

Wright St

65.4#360

Green Bay

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWright St

Where Wright St scores: shooting

Wright St shoots an effective 54.3% (#56); Green Bay allows 53.6% (#287). Expect about 54.2%, 3.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGreen Bay

Where Green Bay scores: shooting

Green Bay shoots an effective 54.9% (#41); Wright St allows 52.4% (#238). Expect about 54.0%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversWright St

Wright St protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.1% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for Wright St's offense.

GlassGreen Bay

Green Bay gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.2% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against Green Bay's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Green Bay, Wright St, Green Bay's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Wright St at about 37.7% of its shots from three, Green Bay about 34.5%.

ClashWright St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Wright St rarely shoots threes (34.2% of its shots); Green Bay lets opponents take 43.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Wright St has the ball

OffenseGreen Bay allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #56

53.6% #287

+4.2 pt/100

16.1% #147

13.2% #351

+3.3 pt/100

32.8% #91

29.6% #140

+0.8 pt/100

37.4% #120

37.4% #249

+0.3 pt/100

74.7% #92

—

+0.2 pt/100

Wright St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.8 pts/100

Green Bay has the ball

OffenseWright St allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #41

52.4% #238

+3.8 pt/100

16.0% #138

16.7% #176

+0.7 pt/100

25.1% #339

29.4% #129

-2.6 pt/100

41.6% #36

33.3% #137

+0.3 pt/100

77.5% #24

—

+0.4 pt/100

Green Bay net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Wright Stoffense vsGreen Baydefense

Share of shots by zone

Wright St shoots

44.9

9.3

11.8

34.0

Green Bay allows

36.5

7.5

12.9

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#95	61.3%#279	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	38.7%#151	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#238	37.6%#146	38.0%
Three	36.4%#44	36.3%#316	33.7%

Green Bayoffense vsWright Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Green Bay shoots

46.6

5.2

10.9

37.2

Wright St allows

42.1

8.4

15.4

34.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#136	57.5%#130	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.1%#22	44.1%#269	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#220	41.4%#285	38.0%
Three	36.4%#42	34.3%#202	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Wright St

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#68 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#91

Def reb %

70.6%

#129

Turnover %

16.1%

#147

Forced TO %

16.7%

#176

FT rate

37.4%

#120

FT allowed

33.3%

#137

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers0.0

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.5

Green Bay

−2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#274 of 365

Off reb %

25.1%

#339

Def reb %

70.4%

#140

Turnover %

16.0%

#138

Forced TO %

13.2%

#351

FT rate

41.6%

#36

FT allowed

37.4%

#249

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Wright St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#68 of 365) to Green Bay’s −2.1 (#274).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Wright St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Solomon Callaghan	G	So	6'2"	33-31	28.1	10.2	1.9	1.1	0.8	56.2%	39.5%	5.4	92.6%	19.0%
3	Dominic Pangonis	G	So	6'7"	34-28	27.0	8.9	2.6	1.1	1.0	56.1%	38.5%	2.8	73.5%	18.0%
22	TJ Burch	G	So	6'1"	34-23	24.7	12.4	2.4	3.6	2.1	49.4%	34.7%	2.2	73.3%	32.4%
33	Michael Imariagbe	F	Sr	6'7"	34-31	24.1	12.0	7.1	1.8	1.8	60.1%	40.0%	0.4	68.3%	27.2%
4	Kellen Pickett	F	Fr	6'9"	35-24	22.9	8.5	5.4	1.1	1.0	59.1%	26.9%	1.5	73.0%	20.0%
20	Andrea Holden	F	So	6'6"	35-3	14.3	6.1	3.9	0.4	1.0	56.6%	0.0%	0.0	70.7%	25.0%
2	Sam Alamutu	G	Sr	6'5"	34-4	11.9	2.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	51.9%	30.0%	0.3	64.0%	17.1%
1	Bryan Etumnu	F	Sr	6'7"	17-8	11.5	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.5	44.1%	28.6%	2.1	55.6%	21.3%
5	Alex Bruskotter	G	Fr	6'8"	15-0	8.3	4.5	1.5	0.2	0.4	76.5%	60.0%	1.3	80.0%	22.5%
51	Ayden Davis	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	8.7	5.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	92.9%	100.0%	0.3	66.7%	18.5%
15	Isaiah Williams	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	PJ Douglas	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Green Bay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Preston Ruedinger	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	35.3	11.6	3.8	5.5	1.5	54.7%	41.1%	4.9	90.8%	19.6%
10	C.J. O'Hara	G	So	6'4"	33-33	32.6	14.1	4.4	1.2	1.5	58.2%	28.0%	0.8	79.4%	23.6%
13	Marcus Hall	F	Jr	6'6"	30-30	34.6	13.9	5.2	2.5	1.6	58.6%	40.6%	5.2	76.4%	22.7%
7	Justin Allen	G	Sr	6'4"	32-22	26.4	13.6	3.7	1.7	1.2	51.5%	25.3%	2.8	82.5%	31.0%
23	Caden Wilkins	F	So	6'6"	33-22	21.5	6.9	2.9	0.6	0.7	56.5%	40.3%	3.6	68.3%	18.9%
22	LeBron Thomas	G	Jr	6'3"	32-6	12.0	4.0	1.9	0.9	1.0	48.7%	11.1%	0.3	68.4%	23.0%
0	Ramel Bethea	F	So	6'9"	30-4	12.7	3.6	2.6	0.3	0.6	74.6%	0.0%	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
4	Mac Wrecke	G	So	6'5"	23-5	11.6	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.7%	36.0%	1.1	69.6%	16.3%
20	Maruan Cicic	C	Fr	7'0"	21-9	11.5	2.8	1.8	0.1	0.6	59.1%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.6%
3	Keegan Van Kauwenberg	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.6	0.4	54.4%	34.6%	1.4	—	15.1%
15	Rob Stroud	F	Sr	6'5"	12-1	5.5	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.3	43.9%	16.7%	0.5	75.0%	40.1%
1	Josh Hines	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	11.0	3.8	1.2	1.2	0.0	63.3%	33.3%	1.8	0.0%	16.3%
12	Dontrell Hewlett	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	11.5	3.8	1.5	1.5	0.8	28.9%	14.3%	1.8	50.0%	33.5%
21	Brady Fitzgerald	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.8%
11	Trey Schachter	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Wright St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
13	Solomon Callaghan	G	So	6'2"	33-31	28.1	10.2	1.9	1.1	0.8	56.2%	39.5%	5.4	92.6%	19.0%
3	Dominic Pangonis	G	So	6'7"	34-28	27.0	8.9	2.6	1.1	1.0	56.1%	38.5%	2.8	73.5%	18.0%
22	TJ Burch	G	So	6'1"	34-23	24.7	12.4	2.4	3.6	2.1	49.4%	34.7%	2.2	73.3%	32.4%
33	Michael Imariagbe	F	Sr	6'7"	34-31	24.1	12.0	7.1	1.8	1.8	60.1%	40.0%	0.4	68.3%	27.2%
4	Kellen Pickett	F	Fr	6'9"	35-24	22.9	8.5	5.4	1.1	1.0	59.1%	26.9%	1.5	73.0%	20.0%
20	Andrea Holden	F	So	6'6"	35-3	14.3	6.1	3.9	0.4	1.0	56.6%	0.0%	0.0	70.7%	25.0%
2	Sam Alamutu	G	Sr	6'5"	34-4	11.9	2.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	51.9%	30.0%	0.3	64.0%	17.1%
1	Bryan Etumnu	F	Sr	6'7"	17-8	11.5	3.4	2.4	0.5	0.5	44.1%	28.6%	2.1	55.6%	21.3%
5	Alex Bruskotter	G	Fr	6'8"	15-0	8.3	4.5	1.5	0.2	0.4	76.5%	60.0%	1.3	80.0%	22.5%
51	Ayden Davis	C	Fr	6'10"	3-0	8.7	5.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	92.9%	100.0%	0.3	66.7%	18.5%
15	Isaiah Williams	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
12	PJ Douglas	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Wright St

Against the spread

Season

19-12-2

Home

6-7-1

Road

10-4

Last 10

6-3-1

avg cover +1.4

Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+, 1 push

Over / under

Season

16-17

Home

7-7

Road

7-7

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +6.2

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#3VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 73–82	+18.0	W+9.0	146.5	O155	112.4	126.3	64.9
Mar 10	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	N	W 66–63	−5.0	L−2.0	153.5	U129	96.8	92.4	68.2
Mar 9	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	N	W 103–90	−1.0	W+12.0	158.0	O193	131.3	114.7	78.5
Mar 4	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 90–61	−14.5	W+14.5	161.5	U151	130.0	88.1	69.2
Feb 28	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	W 92–91	+3.0	W+4.0	152.5	O183	131.4	130.0	70.0
Feb 25	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 74–70	−1.0	W+3.0	152.0	U144	104.3	98.7	70.9
Feb 22	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 68–81	−4.0	L−17.0	146.5	O149	100.6	119.9	67.6
Feb 19	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–73	−12.0	P0.0	160.5	U158	119.3	102.5	71.2
Feb 15	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	W 102–90	−7.5	W+4.5	158.5	O192	137.4	121.2	74.2
Feb 12	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	L 74–77	−11.5	L−14.5	153.0	U151	111.9	116.4	66.2

Green Bay

Against the spread

Season

19-12

Home

8-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	N	L 76–96	+4.0	L−16.0	147.5	O172	115.2	145.5	66.0
Mar 3	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 64–56	−4.5	W+3.5	145.0	U120	110.6	96.7	57.9
Feb 28	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 85–63	−1.5	W+20.5	142.0	O148	130.0	96.4	65.4
Feb 22	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	147.5	U144	101.4	107.2	69.0
Feb 20	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 73–68	+6.5	W+11.5	153.5	U141	115.7	107.8	63.1
Feb 15	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 72–75	+2.5	L−0.5	145.5	O147	117.0	121.8	61.6
Feb 12	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 76–59	−1.5	W+15.5	144.5	U135	129.0	100.1	58.9
Feb 7	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 76–63	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	U139	114.3	94.7	66.5
Feb 4	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	W 87–84 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	150.5	O171	115.3	111.3	75.5
Feb 1	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 75–83	+4.0	L−4.0	144.0	O158	118.4	131.1	63.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Wright StGreen Bay

Efficiency

111.2

110.7

108.5

113.0

68.1

65.4

—

Shooting

54.3%

54.9%

54.2%

55.0%

36.4%

74.7%

77.5%

37.4%

41.6%

Ball control & glass

16.1%

16.0%

16.7%

13.2%

32.8%

25.1%

29.4%

29.6%

9.7%

9.4%

9.1%

9.3%

Style

34.2%

37.3%

48.5%

44.9%

11.2%

10.7%

46.9%

54.5%

34.2%

27.2%

Roster

2.34

2.82

6'5.4"

6'4.7"

79.2%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Wright St

Returning minutes: 79.2%Returning production: 81.8%

Lost

Michael Cooper 23.4 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to California
Logan Woods 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Isaiah Williams no D1 minutes last season
PJ Douglas no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Green Bay

Returning minutes: 97.1%Returning production: 98.1%

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Feb 1	2025-26	Wright St 83 – 75 Green Bay
Sun, Dec 7	2025-26	Green Bay 58 – 86 Wright St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.