CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceChartway Arena, Norfolk, VA
Richmond
Efficiency #150
2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf
@
Old Dominion
Efficiency #242
2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
75.9
win 47%
Projected
76.6
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: ODU −0.7 · total 152.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Old Dominion 69.4, Richmond 68.5 → 69.5 possessions
+2.6
Old Dominion offense vs Richmond defense
−0.8
Richmond offense vs Old Dominion defense
+2.5
Projected total
152.5
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Old Dominion offense vs Richmond defense
−0.8
Richmond offense vs Old Dominion defense
−2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Old Dominion by 0.7
0.7
Richmond side ◂▸ Old Dominion side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Old Dominion.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Old Dominion is the faster team (70.3, #83 of 365) and Richmond the slower (68.5, #172). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.5
model
Projected team totals
75.9 / 76.6
Richmond / Old Dominion
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.5#169
Richmond
69.4#94
Old Dominion
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageRichmond
Where Richmond scores: ball control
Richmond turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#33); Old Dominion forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (#323). Expect about 13.9%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassRichmond
Richmond gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Richmond's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Richmond) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Richmond at about 40.0% of its shots from three, Old Dominion about 40.8%.
AdvantageOld Dominion
Where Old Dominion struggles: the offensive glass
Old Dominion rebounds 26.0% of its own misses (#323); Richmond lets opponents grab 31.0% of their own misses (#200). Expect about 27.6%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashOld Dominion
Style clash: 3-point volume
Old Dominion rarely shoots threes (36.2% of its shots); Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Richmond has the ball
OffenseOld Dominion allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #115
50.8% #145
+0.8 pt/100
14.3% #33
14.5% #323
+3.5 pt/100
25.0% #340
30.3% #176
-2.3 pt/100
36.9% #133
42.0% #322
+0.6 pt/100
75.2% #76
—
+0.2 pt/100
Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.9 pts/100
Old Dominion has the ball
OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg
50.7% #203
52.0% #216
+0.0 pt/100
15.4% #100
17.7% #110
+0.2 pt/100
26.0% #323
31.0% #200
-1.7 pt/100
34.7% #189
35.1% #181
-0.0 pt/100
73.3% #161
—
+0.1 pt/100
Old Dominion net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersRichmondoffense vsOld Dominiondefense
Share of shots by zone
Richmond shoots
29.1
5.8
22.7
42.5
Old Dominion allows
39.7
7.5
16.6
36.1
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.1%#116 | 61.6%#290 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#230 | 28.6%#9 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.7%#87 | 40.5%#257 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.1%#28 | 32.0%#62 | 33.7% |
Old Dominionoffense vsRichmonddefense
Share of shots by zone
Old Dominion shoots
35.9
7.0
21.6
35.5
Richmond allows
33.3
7.3
14.2
45.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#117 | 64.5%#345 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.8%#318 | 39.5%#172 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#290 | 39.8%#236 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.0%#60 | 32.7%#103 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersRichmond
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365
Off reb %
25.0%
#340
Def reb %
69.0%
#200
Turnover %
14.3%
#33
Forced TO %
17.7%
#110
FT rate
36.9%
#133
FT allowed
35.1%
#181
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed0.0
Old Dominion
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#326 of 365
Off reb %
26.0%
#323
Def reb %
69.7%
#176
Turnover %
15.4%
#100
Forced TO %
14.5%
#323
FT rate
34.7%
#189
FT allowed
42.0%
#322
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Richmond has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#135 of 365) to Old Dominion’s −3.8 (#326).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Richmond2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AJ Lopez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 25.8 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 54.1% | 39.4% | 3.3 | 86.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Aiden Argabright | G | Fr | 5'11" | 31-3 | 23.5 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 35.0% | 2.6 | 82.9% | 24.3% | |
| 21 | Mike Walz | C | Sr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 21.2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 2.4 | 75.6% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Collin Tanner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-22 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.7% | 29.2% | 2.2 | 75.0% | 19.4% | |
| 2 | Jaden Daughtry | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-4 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 57.8% | 45.3% | 1.7 | 59.7% | 33.5% | |
| 12 | David Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.4% | 42.1% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 17.3% | |
| 33 | Apostolos Roumoglou | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-0 | 15.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 22.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Jonathan Beagle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 54.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 61.1% | 24.1% | |
| 11 | Will Harper III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 39.7% | 29.4% | 1.3 | 84.2% | 22.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson McGlothin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 27.1% | |
| 15 | Kirby Mooney | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 27.6% | |
| 8 | Donovan Richardson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Dylan Homenick | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Old Dominion2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jordan Battle | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-33 | 32.8 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 54.1% | 43.5% | 5.6 | 85.0% | 25.0% | |
| 0 | KC Shaw | G | Sr | 6'4" | 29-29 | 31.2 | 16.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 46.9% | 8.7% | 0.8 | 72.3% | 33.6% | |
| 6 | LJ Thomas | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-25 | 27.6 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 48.2% | 29.0% | 1.0 | 74.5% | 26.0% | |
| 4 | Robert Davis Jr. | G | Jr | 6'6" | 26-20 | 29.6 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 44.7% | 33.0% | 6.9 | 81.5% | 21.7% | |
| 13 | Jared Turner | F | Jr | 6'8" | 33-5 | 20.9 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 56.5% | 38.2% | 4.4 | 64.3% | 15.5% | |
| 35 | Caelum Swanton-Rodger | F | Sr | 7'0" | 31-31 | 20.5 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 63.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 58.9% | 22.0% | |
| 2 | Zacch Wiggins | G | Fr | 6'4" | 33-10 | 18.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 54.7% | 37.3% | 1.5 | 71.2% | 17.8% | |
| 3 | Scottie Hubbard | G | So | 6'6" | 32-9 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 45.8% | 32.4% | 2.1 | 75.0% | 14.0% | |
| 7 | Drew McKenna | G | So | 6'7" | 26-0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 45.3% | 25.0% | 1.1 | 76.2% | 23.2% | |
| 8 | Donovan Raymond | F | So | 6'10" | 31-2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 45.8% | 13.4% | |
| 42 | Ben Nacey | F | So | 6'8" | 9-0 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 58.3% | — | 0.0 | 58.3% | 15.4% | |
| 11 | Rieco Hellams | G | Jr | 5'10" | 12-0 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 100.0% | 12.0% | |
| 30 | Cooper Jones | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 30.0% | 20.0% | 1.7 | — | 33.1% | |
| 15 | CJ Parker | G | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 5.7% | |
| 10 | Elijah Flowers | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Stephaun Walker | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Richmond2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AJ Lopez | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-32 | 25.8 | 13.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 54.1% | 39.4% | 3.3 | 86.2% | 26.7% | |
| 3 | Aiden Argabright | G | Fr | 5'11" | 31-3 | 23.5 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 49.2% | 35.0% | 2.6 | 82.9% | 24.3% | |
| 21 | Mike Walz | C | Sr | 6'11" | 32-32 | 21.2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 55.9% | 38.5% | 2.4 | 75.6% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Collin Tanner | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-22 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 50.7% | 29.2% | 2.2 | 75.0% | 19.4% | |
| 2 | Jaden Daughtry | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-4 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 57.8% | 45.3% | 1.7 | 59.7% | 33.5% | |
| 12 | David Thomas | G | Jr | 6'2" | 31-7 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55.4% | 42.1% | 1.8 | 87.5% | 17.3% | |
| 33 | Apostolos Roumoglou | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-0 | 15.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 43.0% | 22.6% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 13.6% | |
| 9 | Jonathan Beagle | F | Sr | 6'10" | 24-0 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 54.3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 61.1% | 24.1% | |
| 11 | Will Harper III | G | Fr | 6'4" | 13-0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 39.7% | 29.4% | 1.3 | 84.2% | 22.7% | |
| 35 | Bryson McGlothin | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 27.1% | |
| 15 | Kirby Mooney | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 27.6% | |
| 8 | Donovan Richardson | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 16 | Dylan Homenick | C | Fr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Richmond
Against the spread
Season
15-15-1
Home
8-8-1
Road
7-4
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover −2.2
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
14-17
Home
8-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Loyola Chicago | N | L 67–75 | −4.5 | L−12.5 | 141.5 | O142 | 107.2 | 120.0 | 62.5 |
| Mar 7 | Duquesne | A | L 77–79 | +4.5 | W+2.5 | 148.0 | O156 | 116.8 | 119.9 | 65.9 |
| Mar 3 | Dayton | H | L 60–65 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U125 | 97.0 | 105.1 | 61.8 |
| Feb 28 | Loyola Chicago | A | L 66–69 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 146.5 | U135 | 91.7 | 95.9 | 72.0 |
| Feb 21 | St Bonaventure | H | W 99–94 | −1.0 | W+4.0 | 148.5 | O193 | 134.8 | 128.0 | 73.4 |
| Feb 18 | Davidson | A | L 63–65 | +5.0 | W+3.0 | 140.5 | U128 | 98.8 | 101.9 | 63.8 |
| Feb 14 | VCU | H | L 67–78 | +8.5 | L−2.5 | 156.0 | U145 | 95.9 | 111.6 | 69.9 |
| Feb 10 | George Mason | H | W 82–70 | +3.0 | W+15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 116.9 | 99.8 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Rhode Island | A | L 77–82 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 141.0 | O159 | 113.2 | 120.5 | 68.0 |
| Jan 31 | Davidson | H | L 54–79 | −2.0 | L−27.0 | 140.5 | U133 | 93.5 | 136.8 | 57.8 |
Old Dominion
Against the spread
Season
15-14-3
Home
6-5-1
Road
9-7-2
Last 10
5-4-1
avg cover +1.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
21-11
Home
7-5
Road
12-6
Last 10
8-2
avg vs total +8.5
Over 6 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | GA Southern | N | L 84–88 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 157.5 | O172 | 121.6 | 127.4 | 69.1 |
| Mar 3 | UL Monroe | N | W 87–80 | −10.5 | L−3.5 | 157.5 | O167 | 124.6 | 114.6 | 69.8 |
| Feb 27 | Georgia St | A | W 81–73 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 149.5 | O154 | 109.9 | 99.1 | 73.7 |
| Feb 24 | Marshall | A | L 88–97 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 160.5 | O185 | 122.0 | 134.5 | 72.1 |
| Feb 21 | Southern Miss | A | L 81–86 | +5.0 | P0.0 | 148.0 | O167 | 100.0 | 106.1 | 81.0 |
| Feb 16 | Louisiana | H | W 83–72 | −5.5 | W+5.5 | 136.0 | O155 | 124.6 | 108.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Georgia St | H | W 78–55 | −4.0 | W+19.0 | 147.0 | U133 | 120.8 | 85.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 11 | Marshall | H | L 79–81 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 156.0 | O160 | 111.9 | 114.7 | 70.6 |
| Feb 7 | Ohio | H | W 78–72 | +3.5 | W+9.5 | 156.0 | U150 | 120.3 | 111.0 | 64.8 |
| Feb 4 | UL Monroe | H | L 79–85 | −14.5 | L−20.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 106.8 | 115.0 | 73.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRichmondOld Dominion
Efficiency
110.1
106.9
108.9
110.4
68.5
69.4
—
—
Shooting
52.7%
50.7%
50.5%
48.8%
37.1%
36.0%
75.2%
73.3%
36.9%
34.7%
Ball control & glass
14.3%
15.4%
17.7%
14.5%
25.0%
26.0%
31.0%
30.3%
7.8%
9.2%
7.7%
11.1%
Style
42.6%
36.2%
34.0%
40.5%
16.1%
12.1%
54.5%
49.0%
43.4%
31.6%
Roster
3.10
3.17
6'5.6"
6'5.3"
72.2%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRichmond
Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%
Lost
- Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
- Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart
Added
- Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
- Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Old Dominion
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Old Dominion's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Old Dominion 77 – 86 Richmond |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.