CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMadison Square Garden, New York, NYHall of Fame Series - New York City

Arizona

Efficiency #3

2025-26: 36-3 · 19-2 conf

St John's

Efficiency #16

2025-26: 30-7 · 21-2 conf

Sat, Dec 5 · TBD

76.8

win 54%

Projected

75.7

win 46%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARIZ −1.0 · total 152.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: St John's 69.7, Arizona 70.1 → 71.5 possessions

+6.9

St John's offense vs Arizona defense

−3.9

Arizona offense vs St John's defense

+1.3

Projected total

152.5

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

St John's offense vs Arizona defense

−3.9

Arizona offense vs St John's defense

−1.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Arizona by 1.0

1.0

Arizona side ◂▸ St John's side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −1.1 against −1.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St John's.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona is the faster team (71.4, #38 of 365) and St John's the slower (70.6, #74). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.5

model

Projected team totals

76.8 / 75.7

Arizona / St John's

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.1#41

Arizona

69.7#70

St John's

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSt John's

Where St John's struggles: shooting

St John's shoots an effective 51.1% (#192); Arizona allows 45.3% (#4). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashArizona

Style match: 3-point volume

Arizona rarely shoots threes (26.3% of its shots); St John's runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 24.8% — both habits push the same way.

Pace

Track meet

St John's averages 70.6 possessions per 40, Arizona 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageArizona

Where Arizona scores: the offensive glass

Arizona rebounds 38.4% of its own misses (#5); St John's lets opponents grab 29.9% of their own misses (#154). Expect about 35.7%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSt John's

St John's protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for St John's's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Arizona, St John's's defense, Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Arizona at about 24.8% of its shots from three, St John's about 34.8%.

Arizona has the ball

OffenseSt John's allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #45

47.5% #32

+0.1 pt/100

15.1% #72

19.1% #44

-0.6 pt/100

38.4% #5

29.9% #154

+3.2 pt/100

43.9% #11

31.8% #100

+0.3 pt/100

73.4% #156

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

St John's has the ball

OffenseArizona allowsvs D1 avg

51.1% #192

45.3% #4

-4.5 pt/100

14.4% #39

16.3% #200

+2.0 pt/100

35.2% #43

26.9% #34

+1.0 pt/100

40.2% #57

27.1% #25

-0.3 pt/100

72.2% #200

—

-0.0 pt/100

St John's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Arizonaoffense vsSt John'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Arizona shoots

40.7

12.4

21.2

25.7

St John's allows

42.4

7.1

18.2

32.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#71	53.8%#38	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#50	33.6%#36	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#61	39.0%#201	38.0%
Three	36.6%#37	31.3%#39	33.7%

St John'soffense vsArizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

St John's shoots

42.7

6.5

15.7

35.1

Arizona allows

27.4

11.5

23.6

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#177	53.1%#25	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.1%#302	34.9%#55	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.2%#215	35.9%#104	38.0%
Three	33.5%#196	31.4%#42	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Arizona

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#3 of 365

Off reb %

38.4%

Def reb %

73.1%

#34

Turnover %

15.1%

#72

Forced TO %

16.3%

#200

FT rate

43.9%

#11

FT allowed

27.1%

#25

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.1

St John's

+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#6 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#43

Def reb %

70.1%

#154

Turnover %

14.4%

#39

Forced TO %

19.1%

#44

FT rate

40.2%

#57

FT allowed

31.8%

#100

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.9

Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#3 of 365) to St John's’s +7.2 (#6).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St John's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Joson Sanon	G	So	6'5"	37-14	20.9	7.9	2.4	0.7	1.1	42.9%	33.6%	3.9	76.8%	25.0%
0	Dylan Darling	G	Jr	6'1"	35-15	21.3	6.9	2.5	2.6	1.0	47.1%	27.7%	2.9	71.8%	20.4%
11	Ian Jackson	G	So	6'5"	36-19	18.3	9.4	2.3	1.3	1.4	49.6%	34.3%	4.0	90.0%	31.3%
17	Ruben Prey	F	So	6'11"	37-1	10.7	4.3	2.1	0.8	0.5	57.9%	62.5%	0.6	67.2%	21.5%
31	Lefteris Liotopoulos	G	So	6'4"	30-0	7.7	2.9	0.9	0.4	0.4	45.9%	32.1%	1.8	77.8%	23.8%
5	Kelvin Odih	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	5.4	1.5	1.9	0.2	0.5	46.7%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	20.6%
6	Casper Pohto	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.4	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.4	20.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	13.2%
44	Handje Tamba	C	Sr	6'11"	8-0	2.4	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.1	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
7	Fotis Konstantinidis	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
22	Imran Suljanovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Arizona

Against the spread

Season

23-14-2

Home

9-8

Road

4-4-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-19

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 73–91	−1.0	L−19.0	157.5	O164	93.6	116.6	78.0
Mar 28	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	W 79–64	−5.0	W+10.0	152.5	U143	121.0	98.0	65.3
Mar 26	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	W 109–88	−8.0	W+13.0	165.5	O197	136.4	110.1	79.9
Mar 22	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	W 78–66	−11.5	W+0.5	154.0	U144	121.2	102.5	64.4
Mar 20	#16Long IslandAdjEM #195	N	W 92–58	−30.5	W+3.5	148.0	O150	130.1	82.0	70.7
Mar 14	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	138.5	O153	120.2	112.6	65.7
Mar 13	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 82–80	−3.5	L−1.5	144.5	O162	123.9	120.8	66.2
Mar 12	UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 81–59	−15.5	W+6.5	158.5	U140	118.4	86.2	68.4
Mar 7	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	W 89–79	−13.5	L−3.5	156.0	O168	122.5	108.7	72.7
Mar 2	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 73–57	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U130	109.3	85.4	66.8

St John's

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

11-9

Road

7-3

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.8

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-22-1

Home

7-13

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −5.2

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 75–80	+6.5	W+1.5	140.5	O155	117.0	124.8	64.1
Mar 22	#4KansasAdjEM #25	N	W 67–65	−3.5	L−1.5	145.5	U132	95.5	92.7	70.2
Mar 20	#12Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	W 79–53	−10.5	W+15.5	133.5	U132	125.2	84.0	63.1
Mar 14	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 72–52	+2.0	W+22.0	139.5	U124	114.5	82.7	62.9
Mar 13	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	W 78–68	−8.0	W+2.0	136.5	O146	117.3	102.3	66.5
Mar 12	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	W 85–72	−12.0	W+1.0	159.5	U157	112.6	95.4	75.5
Mar 6	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	W 72–65	−5.0	W+2.0	137.0	P137	112.3	101.3	64.1
Mar 3	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	H	W 72–69	−15.5	L−12.5	148.0	U141	103.5	99.2	69.6
Feb 28	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	W 89–57	−7.5	W+24.5	148.0	U146	122.8	78.6	72.5
Feb 25	#6UConnAdjEM #10	A	L 40–72	+5.5	L−26.5	146.0	U112	68.8	123.8	58.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

ArizonaSt John's

Efficiency

119.5

115.2

96.3

99.2

70.1

69.7

—

Shooting

54.7%

51.1%

54.6%

51.5%

36.6%

33.5%

73.4%

72.2%

43.9%

40.2%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

14.4%

16.3%

19.1%

38.4%

35.2%

26.9%

29.9%

8.6%

8.5%

10.0%

Style

26.3%

35.2%

49.0%

45.0%

16.9%

16.7%

54.0%

57.9%

29.4%

31.0%

Roster

1.83

2.24

6'9.4"

6'4.7"

36.3%

39.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Arizona

Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 33.7%

Lost

Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mabil Mawut no D1 minutes last season
Bryce James no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

St John's

Returning minutes: 39.3%Returning production: 32.0%

Lost

Zuby Ejiofor 30.1 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryce Hopkins 28.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Oziyah Sellers 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dillon Mitchell 28.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sadiku Ibine Ayo 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Imran Suljanovic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.