CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBroadview Center, Albany, NY
Army
Efficiency #336
2025-26: 11-21 · 5-14 conf
@
UAlbany
Efficiency #306
2025-26: 11-21 · 7-10 conf
Sat, Dec 5 · TBD
70.4
win 31%
Projected
76.3
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: UALB −5.9 · total 146.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UAlbany 67.0, Army 68.2 → 66.8 possessions
−3.3
UAlbany offense vs Army defense
+1.9
Army offense vs UAlbany defense
−0.2
Projected total
146.6
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UAlbany offense vs Army defense
+1.9
Army offense vs UAlbany defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
UAlbany by 5.9
5.9
Army side ◂▸ UAlbany side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UAlbany.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Army is the faster team (67.2, #234 of 365) and UAlbany the slower (65.6, #311). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
146.6
model
Projected team totals
70.4 / 76.3
Army / UAlbany
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.2#195
Army
67.0#291
UAlbany

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUAlbany
Where UAlbany scores: shooting
UAlbany shoots an effective 51.3% (#182); Army allows 55.1% (#334). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
UAlbany averages 65.6 possessions per 40, Army 67.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Army has the ball
OffenseUAlbany allowsvs D1 avg
49.3% #279
53.2% #275
-0.2 pt/100
17.2% #220
15.8% #230
+0.5 pt/100
29.6% #219
32.4% #277
+0.3 pt/100
26.8% #352
35.7% #202
-0.4 pt/100
71.7% #215
—
-0.1 pt/100
Army net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.0 pts/100
UAlbany has the ball
OffenseArmy allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #182
55.1% #334
+2.8 pt/100
18.5% #300
15.4% #257
-0.2 pt/100
32.7% #99
27.7% #54
+0.2 pt/100
24.9% #364
39.6% #298
-0.3 pt/100
65.9% #354
—
-0.6 pt/100
UAlbany net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Armyoffense vsUAlbanydefense
Share of shots by zone
Army shoots
UAlbany allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.2%#18756.9%#11058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.0%#19441.3%#21939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)27.5%#36439.6%#22538.0%
Three32.0%#27836.0%#30233.7%
UAlbanyoffense vsArmydefense
Share of shots by zone
UAlbany shoots
Army allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22864.9%#34858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)49.0%#1437.3%#12139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.9%#14637.6%#14438.0%
Three32.6%#24835.6%#28533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Army
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#319 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#219
Def reb %
72.3%
#54
Turnover %
17.2%
#220
Forced TO %
15.4%
#257
FT rate
26.8%
#352
FT allowed
39.6%
#298
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed−1.1
UAlbany
−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#336 of 365
Off reb %
32.7%
#99
Def reb %
67.6%
#277
Turnover %
18.5%
#300
Forced TO %
15.8%
#230
FT rate
24.9%
#364
FT allowed
35.7%
#202
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1

Army has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.7 (#319 of 365) to UAlbany’s −4.3 (#336).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Army2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Army's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Ryan CurryGJr6'0"31-3133.813.34.14.52.250.4%33.5%7.381.3%25.6%
10Jacen HollowayFSo6'4"31-2328.210.83.62.11.654.5%30.9%1.864.8%23.3%
4Jaxson BellGSo6'3"30-825.312.25.01.52.051.5%35.9%4.880.9%29.8%
1Jackson FurmanGFr6'3"32-823.58.93.31.31.747.7%34.7%5.482.2%26.7%
22Kevin McCarthyGSo6'4"30-2924.37.92.71.20.950.9%34.6%5.368.8%20.9%
32Tate LaczkowskiFJr6'8"32-3021.55.25.31.91.157.1%28.1%1.043.8%15.8%
54Jorn EversonFSr6'8"32-2618.97.62.30.90.750.0%30.1%3.560.0%25.5%
5Joshua EliFSo6'6"29-014.34.33.50.80.353.9%54.2%0.862.2%17.3%
24Alex EngroGSo6'2"23-06.60.91.30.30.125.0%12.5%1.050.0%15.4%
13Dillon WattGFr5'11"21-05.11.00.20.20.317.6%0.0%0.384.2%18.0%
23Dylan BennerFFr6'7"19-15.71.60.70.40.443.1%20.8%1.362.5%22.3%
21Jackson MayoGSr6'0"16-25.91.90.90.40.339.5%27.8%2.350.0%27.1%
0Dayon PolkGSo6'0"10-18.00.71.20.60.920.6%8.3%1.2—18.9%
12Dylan MuransFSo6'7"12-03.60.70.50.00.027.3%0.0%0.550.0%17.5%
25Jahaan GreenGFr6'5"10-03.11.00.40.20.250.0%100.0%0.1100.0%21.9%
14Brendon O'KeefeGSo5'10"8-02.81.10.60.40.050.0%50.0%0.8—23.3%
34Nnaemeka IkechiFSo6'7"3-05.00.01.70.70.30.0%0.0%0.3—11.3%
15Chanse PerkinsFSr6'4"0-10.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
ArmyUAlbany
Efficiency
103.4
105.5
114.3
113.4
68.2
67.0
—
—
Shooting
49.3%
51.3%
50.7%
52.8%
32.0%
32.6%
71.7%
65.9%
26.8%
24.9%
Ball control & glass
17.2%
18.5%
15.4%
15.8%
29.6%
32.7%
27.7%
32.4%
10.4%
10.4%
11.2%
9.4%
Style
53.3%
37.6%
37.8%
49.5%
9.6%
13.7%
59.0%
48.9%
36.6%
26.3%
Roster
2.33
2.86
6'3.9"
6'5.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Army
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Army's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UAlbany
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UAlbany's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.