CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Purdue
Efficiency #9
2025-26: 30-9 · 17-7 conf
@
Iowa State
Efficiency #7
2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf
Sun, Dec 6 · TBD
72.1
win 34%
Projected
77.1
win 66%
No line posted yet.
Model: ISU −4.9 · total 149.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, Purdue 66.3 → 66.2 possessions
−4.5
Iowa State offense vs Purdue defense
+3.3
Purdue offense vs Iowa State defense
+2.2
Projected total
149.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Iowa State offense vs Purdue defense
+3.3
Purdue offense vs Iowa State defense
−2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Iowa State by 4.9
4.9
Purdue side ◂▸ Iowa State side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Iowa State is the faster team (68.5, #173 of 365) and Purdue the slower (65.2, #324). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.2
model
Projected team totals
72.1 / 77.1
Purdue / Iowa State
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.3#329
Purdue
68.2#188
Iowa State
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageIowa State
Where Iowa State scores: shooting
Iowa State shoots an effective 56.2% (#20); Purdue allows 52.4% (#232). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantagePurdue
Where Purdue scores: shooting
Purdue shoots an effective 57.6% (#10); Iowa State allows 49.8% (#92). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversIowa State
Iowa State protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for Iowa State's offense.
ClashPurdue
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
Purdue (#17 in turnover rate) against Iowa State (#4 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 18.7%. Historically Iowa State's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
ClashIowa State
Style match: ball movement
Iowa State assists on 59.0% of its made baskets; Purdue allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.8% — both habits push the same way.
GlassPurdue
Purdue owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.7% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Purdue's offense.
Purdue has the ball
OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg
57.6% #10
49.8% #92
+4.2 pt/100
13.7% #17
22.6% #4
-2.4 pt/100
36.4% #19
28.6% #85
+2.0 pt/100
28.6% #336
28.1% #33
-0.9 pt/100
74.6% #99
—
+0.2 pt/100
Purdue net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100
Iowa State has the ball
OffensePurdue allowsvs D1 avg
56.2% #20
52.4% #232
+4.8 pt/100
14.9% #59
15.3% #263
+2.4 pt/100
35.2% #45
27.1% #39
+1.0 pt/100
34.5% #194
25.5% #9
-0.7 pt/100
67.5% #333
—
-0.4 pt/100
Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersPurdueoffense vsIowa Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
28.0
8.8
23.5
39.7
Iowa State allows
29.2
8.4
19.4
43.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#1 | 63.4%#332 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.6%#70 | 39.4%#168 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#13 | 34.6%#64 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#11 | 32.0%#63 | 33.7% |
Iowa Stateoffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
Iowa State shoots
38.2
8.6
14.9
38.3
Purdue allows
28.2
7.0
20.0
44.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.2%#20 | 62.6%#316 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.1%#220 | 44.3%#276 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.3%#210 | 43.0%#329 | 38.0% |
| Three | 38.3%#12 | 34.1%#192 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersPurdue
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#20 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#19
Def reb %
72.9%
#39
Turnover %
13.7%
#17
Forced TO %
15.3%
#263
FT rate
28.6%
#336
FT allowed
25.5%
#9
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5
Iowa State
+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#45
Def reb %
71.4%
#85
Turnover %
14.9%
#59
Forced TO %
22.6%
#4
FT rate
34.5%
#194
FT allowed
28.1%
#33
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers+4.0
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed+1.8
Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to Purdue’s +5.1 (#20).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Iowa State2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Killyan Toure | G | Fr | 6'3" | 37-37 | 25.4 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 51.0% | 31.3% | 2.2 | 72.2% | 22.1% | |
| 0 | Nate Heise | G | Sr | 6'5" | 37-5 | 24.9 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 53.8% | 32.2% | 2.4 | 66.7% | 13.4% | |
| 23 | Blake Buchanan | F | Jr | 6'10" | 37-36 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 49.4% | 19.0% | |
| 1 | Jamarion Batemon | G | Fr | 6'3" | 37-0 | 15.6 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 37.0% | 3.9 | 78.8% | 24.8% | |
| 21 | Dominykas Pleta | F | Fr | 6'11" | 35-1 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 70.6% | — | 0.0 | 59.6% | 20.6% | |
| 11 | Dominick Nelson | G | Sr | 6'5" | 24-0 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 60.4% | 29.2% | |
| 4 | Eric Mulder | F | Sr | 6'9" | 20-0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 100.0% | 0.1 | 44.4% | 17.6% | |
| 13 | Cade Kelderman | G | Jr | 6'1" | 18-0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 0.6 | 50.0% | 12.1% | |
| 55 | Xzavion Mitchell | F | Fr | 6'6" | 7-0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 37.5% | 33.3% | 0.9 | 50.0% | 23.4% | |
| 7 | Anthony Rise | G | Fr | 6'0" | 11-0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.5% | |
| 2 | Mason Williams | G | Jr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Purdue2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | C.J. Cox | G | So | 6'3" | 39-39 | 24.4 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 57.8% | 37.3% | 4.3 | 84.2% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Gicarri Harris | G | So | 6'3" | 39-0 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 51.8% | 35.5% | 2.4 | 86.1% | 16.9% | |
| 17 | Omer Mayer | G | Fr | 6'4" | 39-0 | 14.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51.3% | 35.5% | 2.8 | 65.2% | 26.2% | |
| 14 | Jack Benter | G | Fr | 6'6" | 38-2 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 62.8% | 40.9% | 2.3 | 60.9% | 16.4% | |
| 12 | Daniel Jacobsen | C | So | 7'4" | 39-0 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 65.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 | 62.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | Liam Murphy | F | Sr | 6'8" | 12-0 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 51.9% | 34.8% | 1.9 | — | 18.6% | |
| 9 | Jack Lusk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 9-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 3.2% | |
| 32 | Jace Rayl | G | Jr | 5'11" | 8-0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 6.9% | |
| 1 | Antione West Jr | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Raleigh Burgess | F | So | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Sam King | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Purdue
Against the spread
Season
17-21-1
Home
5-12
Road
6-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −0.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite, 1 push
Over / under
Season
22-17
Home
12-5
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +3.5
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | #1Arizona | N | L 64–79 | +5.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 98.0 | 121.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #11Texas | N | W 79–77 | −8.5 | L−6.5 | 146.5 | O156 | 129.9 | 126.6 | 60.8 |
| Mar 22 | #7Miami | N | W 79–69 | −8.0 | W+2.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 120.4 | 105.2 | 65.6 |
| Mar 20 | #15Queens | N | W 104–71 | −25.5 | W+7.5 | 159.5 | O175 | 154.0 | 105.1 | 67.5 |
| Mar 15 | #3Michigan | N | W 80–72 | +5.5 | W+13.5 | 149.5 | O152 | 127.7 | 114.9 | 62.7 |
| Mar 14 | UCLA | N | W 73–66 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 145.0 | U139 | 122.4 | 110.7 | 59.6 |
| Mar 13 | #11Nebraska | N | W 74–58 | −4.5 | W+11.5 | 146.0 | U132 | 122.4 | 95.9 | 60.5 |
| Mar 12 | Northwestern | N | W 81–68 | −13.5 | L−0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 136.3 | 114.4 | 59.4 |
| Mar 7 | Wisconsin | H | L 93–97 | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O190 | 141.5 | 147.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 4 | Northwestern | A | W 70–66 | −10.5 | L−6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 121.8 | 114.9 | 57.5 |
Iowa State
Against the spread
Season
22-15
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +4.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-21
Home
9-8
Road
2-8
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.1
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #6Tennessee | N | L 62–76 | −3.0 | L−17.0 | 139.5 | U138 | 91.2 | 111.8 | 68.0 |
| Mar 22 | #7Kentucky | N | W 82–63 | −4.5 | W+14.5 | 146.5 | U145 | 118.4 | 91.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 20 | #15Tennessee St | N | W 108–74 | −25.0 | W+9.0 | 147.5 | O182 | 137.7 | 94.4 | 78.4 |
| Mar 13 | #2Arizona | N | L 80–82 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 144.5 | O162 | 120.8 | 123.9 | 66.2 |
| Mar 12 | #16Texas Tech | N | W 75–53 | −5.5 | W+16.5 | 143.5 | U128 | 115.9 | 81.9 | 64.7 |
| Mar 11 | Arizona St | N | W 91–42 | −12.5 | W+36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 132.3 | 61.1 | 68.8 |
| Mar 7 | Arizona St | H | W 86–65 | −16.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 117.9 | 89.1 | 73.0 |
| Mar 2 | #2Arizona | A | L 57–73 | +7.0 | L−9.0 | 149.0 | U130 | 85.4 | 109.3 | 66.8 |
| Feb 28 | #16Texas Tech | H | L 73–82 | −9.5 | L−18.5 | 145.0 | O155 | 113.1 | 127.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 24 | Utah | A | W 75–59 | −14.0 | W+2.0 | 144.5 | U134 | 110.2 | 86.7 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homePurdueIowa State
Efficiency
122.7
118.3
103.6
97.6
66.3
68.2
—
—
Shooting
57.6%
56.2%
57.7%
55.4%
38.3%
38.3%
74.6%
67.5%
28.6%
34.5%
Ball control & glass
13.7%
14.9%
15.3%
22.6%
36.4%
35.2%
27.1%
28.6%
8.0%
9.6%
6.4%
10.2%
Style
40.2%
38.8%
40.7%
45.2%
9.4%
14.1%
65.6%
59.0%
29.8%
28.6%
Roster
1.73
2.34
6'5.8"
6'5.9"
42.3%
55.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPurdue
Returning minutes: 42.3%Returning production: 32.3%
Lost
- Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
- Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
- Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
- Sam King no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.
Iowa State
Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%
Lost
- Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Iowa State 81 – 58 Purdue |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.